Agency Ecofin reported on July 30 that the first delivery of goods from Cameroon's first large-scale bauxite mine, Minim Martap, has been postponed from mid-2026 to the third quarter. With repeated delays, the project's commercial viability and equity structure have faced significant changes. A2MP Investments (holding 55.56% of the shares, affiliated with the Singapore-based Eagle Eye family office), the major shareholder of the project operator, Canyon Resources, released an analysis report on July 29 stating that the project's business model is no longer viable under current market conditions. The average premium of approximately $11/ton set in the original feasibility study is no longer applicable, and a reduction to approximately $5/ton is recommended. The decline in international bauxite prices due to oversupply, coupled with rising shipping rates from West Africa to China (approximately $8/ton), and high logistics, tax, and operating costs, have significantly compressed the project's profit margins.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Jamaica and Ghana are negotiating a potential US$60 million bauxite-to-alumina supply arrangement that would revive a trading relationship first proposed more than two decades ago. Under the proposed structure, Jamaican bauxite would be shipped to the Atlantic Alumina Company (ATALCO) refinery in Gramercy, Louisiana, for processing into alumina, before the alumina is exported to Ghana for use in its aluminum industry. The discussions involve Jamaica’s state-owned Jamaica Bauxite Mining (JBM) and Ghana’s integrated aluminum development efforts.

SMM tracking feedback: The 7.7-magnitude earthquake on Flores Island, Indonesia, had a relatively small impact on the aluminum industry chain. In terms of capacity distribution, bauxite, alumina, and the vast majority of aluminum capacity are concentrated in western Indonesia, generally more than 1,400 km from the epicenter; even the closest aluminum smelter—Sulawesi Morowali Huachin Aluminum—was approximately 624 km away, still outside the 300 km damage radius. Coupled with a tsunami wave height of less than 0.4 meters, the actual supply shock was virtually zero. On the pricing front, it may at most show a short-term sentiment pulse of 0–1%, which is expected to be unwound within 1–3 days, without changing the medium-term trend.

Following Brazil’s ANP approval for Alunorte to act as its own gas importer, the refinery secured a temporary terminal-access deal with supplier CELBA, resolving earlier disruptions that had forced a contingency output cut. With this agreement, Alunorte is now ramping alumina production back to full capacity. The stoppage resulted in an estimated lost output of 100,000–120,000 tonnes, and the combined effects of reduced production and above‑contract gas procurement could weigh on Q3 2026 Bauxite & Alumina earnings by USD 75–100 million, even as the company works toward a permanent supply solution.

SMM August 13: Domestic Bauxite: Domestic Ore Supply Disruptions Linger, Mainstream Prices Remain Stable Affected by coking coal-related events in Shanxi, mining at domestic bauxite main producing areas such as Shanxi and Henan was somewhat disrupted in the short term, and ore supply showed phased changes. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for rising raw material prices, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content were around 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content were around 500-540 yuan/mt; in Guiyang, VAT-inclusive EXW prices for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content were 490-540 yuan/mt; in Guangxi, VAT-exclusive EXW transaction prices at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: August Contract Prices Raised Slightly, Imported Ore Price Divergence Between Upstream and Downstream Intensifies Data as of August 7 showed that total weekly port departures of bauxite at main ports in Guinea were 4.5611 million mt, up 690,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments higher. As US-Iran tensions heated up again, oil prices rebounded, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China showed an upward trend, with market quotes rising to around $35/dmt; costs at various mines also increased to varying degrees. Coupled with policy uncertainty in Guinea and transport affected by severe weather, mines in Guinea tightened control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of August 7, total weekly port departures of bauxite at main Australian ports were 926,700 mt, down 126,000 mt from the previous week, with shipments basically flat. Going forward, attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of August 7, China's bauxite port arrivals were 5.2267 million mt, up 1.352 million mt from the previous week. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of elevated and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future port arrival pace and landed costs. Price-wise, Guinea's August bauxite long-term contract prices rose slightly compared with July, settling at $73-74/mt, but downstream price acceptance was relatively limited. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at alumina refineries in China remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 96 days, capping ore prices to some extent. For Guinean bauxite, with transportation costs from Guinea to China rebounding and shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and severe weather adding to mine costs, offers from upstream sellers and traders remained firm and edged up slightly to a high price range around $73/mt; at Chinese alumina refineries, under the combined impact of persistently high inventory and shrinking margins, intended transaction prices held at $70-71/mt; upstream and downstream participants in the bauxite market diverged sharply on prices, transactions slowed, and the standoff carried over from last week. As of this Thursday, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-42/mt, with the average price unchanged from last Thursday; Guinean bauxite CIF prices were $70-74/mt, with the average price unchanged from last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price stood at $71.72/mt, up $0.15/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on cost conditions at individual mines, the traditional rainy season in Guinea, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activity. Overall , domestic ore prices held at current levels; meanwhile, inventory at Chinese alumina refineries remained high (about 96 days), and the bid-offer standoff between buyers and sellers continued; uncertainty over Guinea's quota policy, lower shipments, and the traditional rainy season also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, with shipments reduced by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue their high-level standoff pattern; afterward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

On August 11, it was reported that Guinea’s Mines Minister Bouna Sylla revealed that state-owned mining company Nimba Mining Company would sell bauxite to global traders and miners through monthly tenders. According to Nimba CEO Patrice L’Huillier, the company planned to secure trading partners through agreements setting a minimum guaranteed annual sales volume, while selling additional output via monthly spot tenders. Sylla said the move was aimed at enabling Nimba to operate on a par with international mining companies, with potential partners including Mercuria, Glencore, Rio Tinto, and Vedanta.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro has reduced alumina production at its Alunorte refinery in Brazil to 50% following disruptions to natural gas supply from CELBA, part of New Fortress Group. To mitigate the disruption, Alunorte is purchasing spot gas, seeking direct access to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal, and pursuing alternative long-term gas supplies. Hydro said production will begin ramping back to full capacity once gas availability normalizes. Hydro estimates the disruption could negatively impact its Bauxite & Alumina business by US$75–100 million in Q3 2026, reflecting both lower alumina production and gas purchases above the contracted price. The company said the ultimate financial impact remains uncertain.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] A proposed bauxite and marl mining project at the Mevasa Block in Gujarat’s Devbhumi Dwarka district has been recommended for environmental clearance by India’s Environment Ministry’s Expert Appraisal Committee (EAC). The project covers just over 5 hectares and is located around 1.6 km from India’s first marine wildlife sanctuary and 6 km from the Marine National Park along the Gulf of Kachchh. The EAC issued its recommendation at its 29 July 2026 meeting, subject to environmental and wildlife protection conditions.

SMM August 11 News: In July 2026, the national weighted average full cost of alumina production stood at Rmb 2,718/mt , up Rmb 37/mt month-on-month, while the weighted average cash cost came in at Rmb 2,544/mt . The notable cost rebound was primarily driven by firmer bauxite prices, with rising CIF costs for imported ore and persistently tight domestic supply jointly lifting the feedstock side. Caustic soda costs showed regional divergence—stable in the north and softer in the south—which limited their overall impact. Meanwhile, a modest decline in energy costs during the month partially offset the upward pressure. Bauxite: Imported bauxite prices sustained their upward trend in July, serving as the core driver behind the cost surge. Elevated ocean freight rates, coupled with the approaching rainy season in Guinea that reduced shipments and lifted arrival costs, pushed import quotes markedly higher, passively raising alumina refineries' procurement costs. On the domestic front, lingering after-effects from previous mining accidents kept mine resumption slow, with supply remaining tight. Some alumina producers have been forced to adjust production schedules in response. Domestic ore prices in July surpassed June levels. With buyer-seller negotiations intensifying, alumina plants attempted to cap prices, yet strong supply-side support kept bauxite prices broadly inclined upward. Looking ahead to August, no clear timeline has emerged for domestic supply recovery, while imported ore shipments are expected to shrink further amid the rainy season. Bauxite prices are likely to hold high and steady, with import quotes potentially edging slightly higher. Caustic Soda: The domestic caustic soda market held largely stable in July, with regional divergence. In northern regions (Shandong, Shanxi, etc.), prices fluctuated little and long-term contract prices saw no notable adjustments. In southern regions (Guangxi, etc.), prices were cut by approximately Rmb 100/mt, with most producers keeping prices at relatively low levels to sharpen regional cost competitiveness. Overall, the caustic soda segment had limited impact on alumina production costs. Entering August, Shanxi's caustic soda long-term contract prices are expected to rise by Rmb 50/mt, nudging local costs slightly higher but with limited effect on the broader alumina sector. In Guangxi, prices are set to decline further by Rmb 150/mt, placing local caustic soda costs at the lower end of the industry spectrum and widening the region's cost advantage. Outlook: To sum up, July's alumina production costs rose notably, led by stronger bauxite prices, while a modest dip in energy costs provided some buffer. Looking to August, the domestic ore supply shortage is unlikely to improve, and imported ore shipments are expected to decrease amid the rainy season, with quotes possibly climbing further. Bauxite prices are seen holding firm at high levels. Caustic soda costs are projected to show regional divergence—ticking up mildly in the north while declining further in the south—with overall narrow fluctuations. The national weighted average full cost of alumina production for August is expected to run in the range of Rmb 2,700–2,820/mt , with the weighted average cash cost projected at Rmb 2,530–2,650/mt .

SMM, August 11: In July 2026, the weighted average full cost of alumina in China was 2,718 yuan/mt, up 37 yuan/mt MoM, with the weighted average cash cost at 2,544 yuan/mt. The notable cost increase was primarily driven by the sharp rise in bauxite prices, as higher landed costs for imported ore and persistently tight supply of domestic ore combined to push ore-side costs higher; caustic soda costs showed regional divergence, stable in north China but lower in south China, with limited overall impact on costs. However, energy costs pulled back slightly during the period, providing some buffer against the cost increase. Looking at cost sub-items: Bauxite side, imported ore prices maintained their upward trajectory in July, becoming the core driver of higher costs. Elevated ocean freight rates, coupled with reduced shipments and increased landed costs as Guinea's rainy season approached, led to markedly higher imported ore quotes, passively raising procurement costs for alumina refineries. On the domestic ore side, the lingering impact of mine accidents persisted while mine production resumptions proceeded at a slow pace, keeping supply tight; some alumina enterprises had already been forced to adjust production pace as a result, and domestic ore prices in July exceeded June levels. The tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified—although alumina refineries sought to push for lower prices, robust supply-side support made ore prices more likely to rise than fall overall. Looking ahead to August, there remains no clear timetable for domestic supply recovery, while imported ore shipments are expected to continue shrinking due to the rainy season; ore prices are expected to stabilize at highs, with imported ore quotes likely to have slight upside room. Caustic soda side, the domestic caustic soda market remained broadly stable in July, with regional divergence in performance. In north China (Shandong, Shanxi, etc.), soda prices fluctuated little, remaining largely steady, with no significant adjustment to long-term contract prices; in south China (Guangxi, etc.), prices were lowered by approximately 100 yuan/mt, with most enterprises keeping prices at relatively low levels to strengthen regional cost advantages. Overall, the caustic soda segment had limited impact on alumina refinery costs, placing no additional pressure on total costs. Entering August, Shanxi long-term caustic soda contract prices were raised by 50 yuan/mt, expected to nudge local costs slightly higher, though the impact on alumina enterprises' overall costs is limited; Guangxi further reduced prices by 150 yuan/mt, with local caustic soda costs already at relatively low industry levels, and regional cost advantages are set to widen further. In summary, July alumina costs rose markedly, led by the sharp rise in ore prices, with a slight pullback in energy costs providing some buffer. Looking ahead to August, the domestic ore supply deficit is unlikely to ease, and imported ore shipments are expected to decline due to rainy-season disruptions, leaving potential for further quote increases; ore prices are expected to stabilize at highs. Caustic soda will exhibit a regional divergence pattern, with north China edging up slightly and south China continuing to decline, moving sideways overall. The weighted average full cost of alumina in China is expected to range between 2,700–2,820 yuan/mt in August, with the weighted average cash cost projected at 2,530–2,650 yuan/mt. (The above information is derived from market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team and is provided for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment, research, or decision-making advice. Clients should exercise caution in their decision-making and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not the responsibility of SMM.) Data source: SMM (Zhao Baichuan 021-51666812)