SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

A proposed aluminum smelter in Inola, Oklahoma, continues to divide local residents over environmental concerns and economic benefits. US President Donald Trump publicly endorsed the project, saying it would create jobs and strengthen domestic aluminum production, while criticizing legal efforts to block its development. Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt also warned that delaying the project could drive investment and manufacturing opportunities to other states. The US Department of Energy noted that Inola's inland port provides efficient logistics for bauxite transportation, making it a strategic location for expanding domestic aluminum smelting capacity and reinforcing the US supply chain.

The Irish government is considering seeking EU financial support to keep Aughinish Alumina operating if further sanctions on Russia threaten the refinery's future due to its Russian ownership. Authorities are also assessing the possibility of temporary state control of the County Limerick refinery, one of Europe's largest alumina producers with 459 employees. Any disruption could affect aluminum supply chains serving the automotive and aerospace industries. Officials are also evaluating potential risks to bauxite supply if the current Russian owners halt shipments from Guinea. The move reflects growing efforts to balance Europe's industrial supply security with broader geopolitical sanctions against Russia.

SMM July 2: Domestic bauxite: Supply disruptions pushed up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract procurement prices rose overall Affected by events related to Shanxi coking coal, mining at main domestic bauxite production areas like Shanxi and Henan faced certain disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by expectations of supply tightening, the price center of domestic ore edged up slightly. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were approximately 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, including VAT, EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite: Guinea shipments pulled back alongside pending long-term contracts, with imported ore prices consolidating at highs According to data as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.3834 million mt, down 409,200 mt from the previous week, with shipments pulling back. Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China fell to a range of $30-32/mt, with the lowest quote at $29/mt. Although ocean freight rates declined significantly from the previous $36/mt, market feedback generally indicated difficulty in securing shipping schedules and matching prices. With quota policies yet to be implemented and negotiations on July long-term contract prices still ongoing, coupled with the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season, the market returned to a wait-and-see sentiment, and Guinean mines continued to control bauxite shipments. As for Australia, as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 1.0058 million mt, down 224,200 mt from the previous week. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of June 26, port arrivals of bauxite in China totaled 4.7276 million mt, down 666,900 mt from the previous week. Continuous attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on forward arrival pace and landed costs. Price, there was still no news on the Guinean long-term contract price for July, with sources indicating that negotiations on the relevant long-term contract price were still underway. Meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery bauxite inventories remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, ocean freight rates for spot cargoes to China began to pull back, but with market rumors that the Guinean quota policy was about to be implemented, the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. Guinean bauxite prices continued to consolidate at highs. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quote for Guinean bauxite was $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the CIF price for Guinean bauxite was reported at $70-72/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $69.98/mt, up $0.02/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on various factors including mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, the negotiation of the Guinean long-term contract price for July, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activities. Overall , domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (around 95 days), and the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's July long-term contract price and quota policy, together with the traditional rainy season, also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to reduced shipments caused by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level consolidation pattern. Going forward, the key focus will be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] VBX Limited has secured an indicative term sheet with thyssenkrupp Materials Trading Asia for a A$10 million prepayment and offtake facility to support development of its Wuudagu Bauxite Project in Western Australia. The proposed financing provides upfront funding in exchange for future bauxite supply, although the indicative term sheet is non-binding and may be terminated by either party if definitive agreements are not executed by 31 July 2026.

SMM, July 1: Today, SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,755 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,245 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 22,370 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt or 0.95% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 272,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots, with a daily position decrease of 4,467 lots. The price has broken below all moving averages, widening the gap with MA5 (22,777) to over 400 points. MA10 (23,299.5), MA30 (24,013.67), and MA60 (24,421.75) are in a standard bearish alignment, accelerating the downtrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-470.46) and DEA (-320.9) continue to diverge downward, with the histogram bar widening to -299.12, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum and no sign of the decline halting. Trading volume of 272,000 lots was below MA5 (317,300 lots), and the decline on shrinking volume suggests diminishing market participation. The daily position decrease of 4,467 lots indicates some bear profit-taking, but the trend has not yet reversed. SMM Comment: The dispute over administrative rights in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on nonferrous metal prices. Macro headwinds drove aluminum prices lower both in and outside China. Bearish factors dominate in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,805 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,786 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 158,800 lots, and open interest stood at 286,200 lots, with a daily position decrease of 569 lots. The price has broken below MA5 (2,803.6), MA30 (2,835.07), and MA60 (2,822.95), only temporarily holding below MA10 (2,846.4). MA5 has turned downward and is about to cross below MA60, a clear signal of a weakening moving average system. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-6.18) has turned negative and is below DEA (6.65), with the histogram bar widening to -25.65, spreading downward after a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is dominant. Trading volume of 158,800 lots was below average volumes across all timeframes, and the decline on shrinking volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Inventory structure showed that aluminum smelters’ raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to recent significant price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventory, meanwhile, continued to build up, with overseas port arrivals staying high and imported resources supplementing spot supply, adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alcoa has agreed to acquire most of South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for an upfront consideration of US$4.1 billion in cash and stock, with potential contingent payments of up to US$750 million linked to future alumina and aluminum prices. The transaction includes South32’s interests in Worsley Alumina (Australia), Hillside Aluminium (South Africa), and bauxite, alumina, and aluminum operations in Brazil, but excludes the idled Mozal smelter in Mozambique. Alcoa expects approximately US$900 million in synergies and believes the acquisition will strengthen its position as a leading pure-play upstream aluminum producer. The deal is expected to close in H1 2027. Under the agreement Alcoa will acquire South32's interests in: 1. Worsley Alumina (86%) 2. Hillside Aluminium (100%) 3. MRN Bauxite Mine (33%) 4. Brazil Alumina Refinery (36%) 5. Brazil Aluminium Smelter (40%)

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

SMM, June 30: According to SMM statistics, total production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China in June 2026 fell about 6.0% YoY and about 5.5% MoM. In June, supply-side disruptions in the alumina market outside China became more pronounced compared with May. On one hand, due to the situation in the Middle East, production and shipment paces at some enterprises had not yet fully recovered; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia persisted, weighing on local alumina production and shipments. By enterprise and region, Alcoa said that, due to the impact of the earlier Cyclone Narelle in Australia, the LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. It expected Q2 alumina shipments to be about 120,000 mt lower than in Q1, and the related disruption was expected to push up Q2 production costs by approximately $30 million. In addition, due to the Middle East situation, fuel costs at the company's São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also rose. Currently, Alcoa's Western Australian alumina operations are still facing multiple pressures, including weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades, and rising energy costs, and its overall operations are clearly under pressure. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. In June, during discussions on a new round of EU sanctions against Russia, the issue of alumina exports from Aughinish Alumina in Ireland to Russia continued to attract attention. Public reports indicated that the latest EU sanctions package did not yet include alumina exports within its restrictions, but if sanctions are further tightened later, it could affect alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape in Europe. Since June, with the arrival of some Malaysian bauxite, raw material supply at some local alumina refineries has improved, leaving some room for production recovery, but issues related to bauxite export quotas in Indonesia and logistics stability still require close monitoring. Additionally, in June, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan explored cooperation on alumina supply and aluminum product trade, under which Azerbaijan plans to supply alumina to Tajikistan and Tajikistan would export aluminum products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation will have limited impact on alumina production outside China in the near term, but it reflects that regional aluminum industry chain coordination and trade flow adjustments are still advancing. Looking ahead to July, metallurgical-grade alumina supply outside China is expected to see a recovery-driven increase, with production rebounding about 4.5% MoM. On one hand, with the arrival of bauxite at ports, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased, and output is expected to gradually recover; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing marginally, and earlier affected production and shipment paces may recover. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, cost pressure from energy in Australia, and Indonesia's bauxite quota issues may still disrupt the supply recovery outside China. Overall, alumina production outside China is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains high. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

SMM, June 30 In June 2026, China’s metallurgical-grade alumina output fell 1.7% MoM but rose 0.7% YoY. As of the end of June, China’s total built alumina capacity stood at around 118.42 million mt/year. Operating capacity increased 1.6% MoM and 0.7% YoY. The change in output this month was mainly driven by the offset between new capacity ramp-up and localised production cuts. On the one hand, the second production line of a newly commissioned project in Guangxi continued to ramp up, supporting an increase in alumina output in south China. On the other hand, some capacity in Shanxi was temporarily reduced due to environmental protection-related factors, partially offsetting the output increase from new capacity. Meanwhile, as some calciners in north China completed maintenance, output at relevant producers recovered to some extent. Overall, alumina output in north China edged lower in June, while output in south China increased. Looking ahead to July, the alumina market is expected to maintain its current supply pattern. Some alumina producers in Guangxi are expected to complete boiler maintenance, which may further lift output in the region. However, affected by the mining accident in Shanxi, domestic bauxite mining has been restricted to some extent. Tight domestic ore supply has prompted some alumina producers that mainly use domestic bauxite to adjust their production plans. In addition, with alumina inventories still at high levels, some producers may arrange maintenance going forward. Overall, alumina operating capacity in July is expected to be around 88.60 million mt/year.