SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: SHFE Tin Pulled Back Under Pressure in Early Trading After Rebounding, and Spot Transactions Weakened]

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

According to SMM data, during the second half of the traditional "Golden March" peak consumption season (March 16 - March 20, 2026), the most-traded stainless steel futures contract (SS2605) trended lower from its highs under the dual pressure of macroeconomic headwinds and tepid actual demand. By the close on March 20, the contract retreated to 14,150 yuan/mt (approx. $2,051/mt), down 125 yuan/mt (approx. $18/mt) from last Friday's close of 14,275 yuan/mt (approx. $2,069/mt). The market's core feature this week was the marginal weakening of previous bullish factors: international macro signals tilted hawkish, raw material upward momentum stalled, and the substantive recovery of end-user demand during the peak season remained lackluster, prompting a rational pullback in futures prices after hitting resistance. Macro-Economy: Divergence Between Global Hawkishness and Chinese Resilience On the macroeconomic front, a significant divergence emerged between global and Chinese economic data and policy directions. Internationally, the U.S. Federal Reserve ushered in a "Super Central Bank Week," deciding to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Influenced by developments in the Middle East and sticky inflation, the Fed's latest dot plot—despite maintaining expectations for one rate cut this year and next—revealed a distinctly hawkish tilt. Market bets on rate cuts for the entire year were slashed to less than 11 basis points. The dashed hopes for loose dollar liquidity weighed on the overall valuation of the base metals sector. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics released January-February economic data showing a stable start to the year. Value-added industrial output grew by 6.3% year-on-year, and total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%, though real estate development investment still fell by 11.1% YoY. This structural divergence indicates a certain resilience in Chinese manufacturing, but the drag from the property sector continues to cap the upward elasticity of end-user consumption. Fundamentals: Destocking Continues, But Spot Market Feels Lukewarm Fundamentally, social inventories maintained a destocking trend, but the spot market still lacked vigor. The latest SMM data shows social inventories falling further to 979,300 mt this week, a decrease of 18,800 mt from last week's 998,100 mt. The continuous decline in inventories sent a positive industry signal, stabilizing market sentiment to some extent. However, the spot market still felt cold. Overall quotes remained stable, and end-user procurement strictly followed a just-in-time purchasing model, failing to exhibit the across-the-board boom expected during a peak season and leading to a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Currently, although the destocking trend is preserved, constrained by high absolute inventory levels and the anticipated supply increment from March steel mill resumptions, traders are maintaining a steady pace of shipments without resorting to aggressive panic selling. Costs: High-Level Loosening Pauses Cost-Driven Logic The cost side also showed signs of loosening from its highs. As of March 20, high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) quotes ended their previous unilateral rally, edging down to 1,084 yuan/mtu (approx. $157/mtu), while high-carbon ferrochrome prices held steady at 8,650 yuan/50 mt (approx. $1,254/50 mt). With the pullback in futures prices and the sustained caution of steel mills regarding high-priced raw materials, NPI faced resistance in breaching the 1,100 yuan mark. The stabilization of raw material prices at high levels, coupled with slight price concessions, has temporarily alleviated the upward pressure on steel mills' cost centers, bringing the previously strong "cost-driven" logic to a temporary halt. Outlook and Strategy In conclusion, the stainless steel market this week entered a "deep water" zone where peak season expectations are repeatedly tested against reality. The Fed's hawkish stance pressured macro sentiment, while the "tepid" state of just-in-time end-user demand left fundamentals lacking intrinsic upward momentum. However, two consecutive weeks of steady destocking and stable spot quotes have effectively limited the depth of the market's correction. Looking ahead to next week, the market will continue to seek a balance between "high inventories + supply increments" and "continuous destocking + just-in-time demand floor." The key focus will be whether the destocking slope reverses due to concentrated arrivals at steel mills. In the short term, the most-traded SS contract is expected to shift into a broad range-bound trend.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Opened Sharply Higher in the Night Session and Then Rebounded in Volatile Trading, While the Spot Market Will Gradually Cool Down]

According to the latest data from China Customs, China imported a total of 5,561 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate in February 2026, down 20% MoM and up 54% YoY. China exported 33 mt in metal content of nickel sulphate, down 74% MoM and down 75% YoY. China's net imports of nickel sulphate were 5,528 mt in metal content in February 2026, down 19% MoM and up 59% YoY. By country, exports to Japan pulled back this month, dragging down total exports; on the import side, imports from Indonesia and other countries also pulled back this month. Although imports from Finland increased, total imports still declined. Net imports of nickel salts also pulled back this month, broadly in line with last month's expectations.