![[SMM Analysis] Weak Nickel Caps Chinese Stainless Steel Futures in a Tight Range as Mill Price Discipline](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesLDoQB20260703182347.png)
SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of June 29 – July 3, 2026. Weak nickel and a softening off-season demand backdrop offset firm mill pricing and low inventories, steadying the benchmark contract near RMB 14,655/mt
Jul 3, 2026 18:19[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Trigger US Dollar Plunge, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Tests 400,000 Yuan Level Again]
Jul 3, 2026 12:24"Tin" Guiding the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in a New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point. Traditional cyclical logic has been completely disrupted, and strategic value has become fully prominent. The tin market in 2026 presents unprecedented complexity and profound changes: I. Deep Restructuring of Supply-Demand Patterns, Unprecedented Strategic Significance The global static reserve-to-production ratio for tin resources is only 14 years, making scarcity increasingly evident. The supply side faces "triple pressures": recurring delays in production resumptions in Myanmar, persistently tightening policies in Indonesia, and elevated geopolitical risks in the DRC. Resource constraints have become a new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure is undergoing a fundamental shift, as tin has become a strategic resource connecting traditional manufacturing with a digital future. II. Price Levels Breaking Historical Records, Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices exceeded 470,000 yuan/mt, reaching an all-time high. This price breakthrough not only reflects supply-demand imbalances but also signals a revaluation of the tin industry's worth. Traditional trading models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods are all in urgent need of innovation and breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transformation Fostering a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digital and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain. The global green transition demands that the tin industry upgrade toward low-carbon operations and a circular economy. Recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes have become essential paths. All segments of the industry chain must shift from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will convene global industry elites for joint discussions on August 19-21, 2026, in Changsha, Hunan. Guangdong Huize Metals Trading Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, joining industry peers in exploring development trends and jointly propelling the tin industry to new heights. Click the registration form to sign up now and witness and participate in this momentous, far-reaching industry gathering, co-creating a brilliant new chapter! Guangdong Huize Metals Trading Co., Ltd., located in Guangzhou—the core hub of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area—is a specialized trader focused on tin ingot trade. Since its establishment, the company has deeply cultivated the tin sector, based in South China while serving the entire nation, committed to providing upstream and downstream clients with high-quality, efficient, stable, and compliant metal trading and supply chain supporting services. We have established long-term, stable partnerships with numerous renowned smelters, tin ingot producers, and traders nationwide, forming a strong partner network and serving as a premium supplier to multiple state-owned enterprises and well-known companies. The company is also a member of the Tin Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) and a member of the Electronic Tin Solder Materials Branch of the China Electronic Materials Industry Association. Our company has always adhered to the principles of people-orientation, integrity, pragmatism, and innovation, and is willing to achieve mutual benefits and win-win outcomes with partners and clients across the upstream and downstream sectors of the tin industry chain. Contact Information Xie Zhichao: 13197537999 Wang Yongfu: 18889929433 Address: Room 1601, No. 4, Huitong Third Street, Nansha District, Guangzhou Long press or scan the code to register now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference
Jul 3, 2026 11:30[7.3 Morning Meeting Minutes] US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the smallest gain since March and below market expectations of 118,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in morning trading, closing the session at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. A stronger US dollar and a shift in market expectations toward a more "hawkish" US Fed policy stance kept the macro environment challenging. Markets turned their attention to this week's US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.
Jul 3, 2026 09:44[SMM Aluminum Weekly Review: Macro Headwinds Remain Dominant; Short-term Aluminum Prices Need More Support]
Jul 2, 2026 18:26Today, the most-traded HRC contract drifted lower, closing at 3,283 at the end of the session, with an intraday decline of 0.33%. Spot HRC prices remained largely steady, edging down in some markets, while spot cold-rolled prices held stable for now. In terms of supply, HRC production increased by 7,700 mt WoW this period, with further increases expected. Demand side, end-users remained in the off-season, and the overall market atmosphere was relatively sluggish. Cost side, coke's 10th round of price increases is about to be initiated, and hot metal production fell by 4,700 mt WoW this week, weakening cost-side support somewhat but not yet causing it to collapse. Looking ahead, imbalances in sheets & plates continue to accumulate. Inventory increased by 179,500 mt WoW this week and may enter a sustained buildup channel subsequently. Fundamental support will remain weak going forward, but futures have already reached a relatively low level and will be in a phase of consolidating at lows in the short term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to steel mill maintenance to assess whether cost support can be sustained.
Jul 2, 2026 17:48[SMM Tin Midday Review: Warsh Reiterates Inflation Bottom Line, SHFE Tin Contracts Maintain Fluctuating Trend]
Jul 2, 2026 12:18SMM Nickel July 2 News: Macro and Market News: (1) US June ADP employment increased by 98,000, the lowest gain since March, missing market expectations of a 118,000 increase. (2) New US Fed Chair Warsh reiterated on Wednesday (July 1) his preference to shrink the central bank’s balance sheet, but stressed that any such steps would be implemented only after thorough public communication and preparation. Spot Market: On July 2, SMM #1 refined nickel price rose 1,050 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. As for spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,150 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, ending at 125,880 yuan/mt, down 0.41%. The strength of the US dollar and a hawkish shift in market expectations for US Fed policy kept the macro environment challenging. Markets are focused on this week’s US ADP and non-farm payrolls data. In the near term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.
Jul 2, 2026 11:45"Tin" Leads the Future: Industrial Transformation and Value Reshaping in the New Cycle Conference Background Currently, the global tin industry stands at a historic turning point. Traditional cyclical logic has been completely disrupted, and its strategic value is being fully highlighted. In 2026, the tin market is presenting an unprecedentedly complex pattern and profound transformation: I. Deep Restructuring of Supply-Demand Patterns with Unprecedented Strategic Importance The global static reserve-to-production ratio for tin resources stands at only 14 years, underscoring growing scarcity. The supply side faces "triple pressure": repeated setbacks in Myanmar’s production resumptions, persistently tightening policies in Indonesia, and high geopolitical risks in the DRC—resource constraints have become the new normal. Meanwhile, the demand structure is undergoing a fundamental shift, with tin now a strategic resource bridging traditional manufacturing and the digital future. II. Price Systems Breaking Historical Records and the Industrial Ecosystem Facing Reshaping In early 2026, SHFE tin prices surpassed 470,000 yuan/mt, reaching an all-time high. This price breakthrough not only reflects supply-demand imbalances but also signals a revaluation of the tin industry. Traditional trading models, risk management systems, and supply chain collaboration methods all urgently require innovative breakthroughs. III. Technology-Driven and Green Transition Foster a New Symbiotic Ecosystem Digital and intelligent technologies are deeply empowering the tin industry chain, while the global green transition demands a shift toward low-carbon practices and a circular economy. Recycled tin recovery and green smelting processes have become essential paths. All segments of the industry chain must move from competition to collaboration, building an open, resilient, and innovative symbiotic system. Against this backdrop, August 19-21, 2026, in Changsha, Hunan, the 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference will bring together global industry elites for in-depth discussions. Gejiu Yunxin Nonferrous Electrolysis Co., Ltd. will attend this grand event, engaging with industry peers to explore development trends and jointly propel the tin industry to new heights. Click the registration form to sign up now and join us in witnessing and participating in this landmark, far-reaching industry gathering. Together, let us create a brilliant new chapter! Founded in 2005, Gejiu Yunxin Nonferrous Electrolysis Co., Ltd. is located in Huogudu, Zhadian Town, Gejiu City, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province. With a registered capital of 150 million yuan and over 450 employees, its business scope covers nonferrous metal tin smelting, processing, and sales. The company is equipped with electric furnace crude smelting, bimetallic electrolytic wet process, vacuum furnace, and electric heating continuous melting crystallizer pyrometallurgy refining tin processes, with an annual refined tin (Sn99.95%) production capacity of 6,000 mt. Its "Yunxiang" brand tin ingot is a delivery brand on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The company holds 46 patents and has been honored with titles such as “National Demonstration Base for Employment of Persons with Disabilities,” “Yunnan Province Specialized, Sophisticated, Distinctive, and Innovative Enterprise,” “Yunnan Province High-Tech Enterprise,” “Yunnan Province Innovative Enterprise,” and “Gejiu City Top 50 Enterprise.” Its corporate bank credit rating is AAA, and it is designated as a price submitter for tin ingot prices by SMM and the International Tin Association. The company ranks among the top ten enterprises in China’s tin smelting industry, with high product recognition, strong social credibility, and significant market share. Established in 2005 and located in Huogudu, Zadian Town, Gejiu City, Honghe Prefecture, Yunnan Province, Gejiu Yunxin Nonferrous Electrolysis Co., Ltd. boasts a registered capital of RMB 150 million and has over 450 employees. The company specializes in the smelting, processing, and sales of nonferrous metal tin. Its production facilities include electric furnace smelting, bimetallic electrolysis hydrometallurgical processes, vacuum furnaces, and electrothermal continuous melting and crystallization machines for pyrometallurgical refining of tin. With an annual production capacity of 6,000 mt of refined tin (Sn99.95%), the company’s "Yunxiang" brand tin ingots are listed as a deliverable brand on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Gejiu Yunxin holds 46 patents and has been recognized with numerous honors, including the "National Demonstration Base for Employment of Persons with Disabilities," "Yunnan Province Specialized, Sophisticated, Distinctive, and Innovative Enterprise," "Yunnan Province High-Tech Enterprise," "Yunnan Province Innovative Enterprise," and "Gejiu City Top 50 Enterprise." Its corporate bank credit rating is AAA, and it is designated as a price submitter for tin ingot prices by SMM and the International Tin Association. The company ranks among the top ten enterprises in the domestic tin smelting industry, with high product recognition, strong social credibility, and significant market share. Contact Shen Yongji 18608779826 Long press to scan and register now 2026 SMM (16th) Tin Industry Chain Conference
Jul 2, 2026 11:28[Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Narrow, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] Progress has been made in indirect technical talks between the US and Iran, with discussions on fund repatriation and Strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow. The dispute over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of Strait navigation. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to stay in the doldrums.
Jul 2, 2026 09:10