As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Daily Review: High-Grade NPI May Still Have Downside Room Under the Dual Pressure of End-Users and Steel Scrap] March 24 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.88, up 0.01 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.59, down 0.04 MoM.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.

SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Tin Brief Commentary: SHFE Tin Stopped Falling and Rebounded, Closing Up 2.94% as Macro Pressure and Bottom Support Vied Against Each Other]

SMM News: Following our previous analysis of the transportation and wind power sectors, this installment shifts focus to the critical demand drivers in the consumer and construction domains: White Goods , Consumer Electronics , and Real Estate-related applications (Elevators and Power Tools). While these sectors individually consume less magnetic material per unit compared to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), their sheer aggregate volume makes them indispensable pillars of the Neodymium-Praseodymium (Pr-Nd) market. However, data from early 2026 reveals a troubling trend of stagnation and structural contraction across these traditional strongholds. I. White Goods: The Dual Pressure of Production Slumps and Material Substitution In the white goods sector, Neodymium-Iron-Boron (NdFeB) magnets are primarily utilized in two key applications: compressors for inverter air conditioners and motors for drum and impeller washing machines . 1. Air Conditioners: A Sharp Contraction in Output and Dosage According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), China’s cumulative air conditioner production for January-February 2026 stood at 40.118 million units , a staggering 35% year-on-year (YoY) decline compared to the 61.921 million units produced in the same period of 2025. (Reason: This drastic drop is attributed to a combination of factors: firstly, an unusually mild winter across major consumption regions significantly dampened heating demand, leading to a destocking cycle among distributors. Secondly, the real estate sector’s continued downturn has severely curtailed new housing completions, directly reducing the installation of centralized and split AC systems. Lastly, high inventory levels carried over from 2025 forced manufacturers to aggressively cut production schedules in Q1 2026 to avoid capital lock-up.) Looking at the full year, SMM forecasts a marginal growth of 0.96% for 2026, with total annual production projected at 271.095 million units . (Reason: The near-flat growth outlook reflects a mature market saturation where replacement demand, rather than new installations, drives volume. While export markets offer some resilience against domestic weakness, rising trade barriers and logistical costs in key regions like Europe and North America are expected to cap significant expansion.) Applying SMM’s calculation model: Inverter Penetration: 99% NdFeB Motor Penetration: 92% Specific Consumption: Assumed at 100g/unit for 2026. Based on these parameters, the total NdFeB consumption for the air conditioner sector in 2026 is estimated at 24,691 tons , representing a 23% decrease from the 29,163 tons consumed in 2025. The core driver of this decline is twofold: first, the persistently high prices of Pr-Nd since the second half of 2025 have accelerated the industry’s cost-reduction initiatives. Second, there is a clear technological shift towards minimizing rare earth usage. The average single-unit dosage has dropped from 120g/unit in 2025 to 100g/unit in 2026 , as manufacturers optimize motor designs and, in some lower-end models, substitute with ferrite magnets or induction motor technologies where efficiency standards allow. 2. Washing Machines: A Slow Erosion of Demand For January-February 2026, China’s cumulative washing machine production was 18.58 million units , a slight 0.3% YoY decline from the 18.51 million units in the same period of 2025. (Reason: The stability in production volumes masks underlying weakness. The slight dip is primarily due to weak consumer confidence impacting discretionary spending on home appliance upgrades. Furthermore, the export market for washing machines has faced headwinds from sluggish global economic growth and intensified competition from Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, offsetting modest domestic recovery efforts.) SMM projects a full-year growth rate of 3.1% for 2026. (Reason: This modest recovery is underpinned by government-led "trade-in" subsidy policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption of energy-efficient appliances. Additionally, product innovation in the high-end segment, such as washer-dryer combos and smart features, is expected to stimulate some replacement demand, though the overall ceiling remains low.) Demand Calculation Logic: Drum Washer Penetration: 63% (High-end, 98% use NdFeB) Impeller Washer Penetration: 28% (Mid-range, 50% use NdFeB) Specific Consumption: 290g/unit for drum washers; 240g/unit for impeller washers. Under this model, the total NdFeB demand for washing machines in 2026 is estimated at 27,204.52 tons , a 0.2% decrease from 27,262 tons in 2025. The sector is experiencing a slow but steady erosion of demand. While high-end drum washers rely heavily on efficient NdFeB motors to meet stringent energy labels, the volatility of rare earth prices is prompting manufacturers to cautiously explore alternative motor designs or reduce magnet grades in non-critical applications. Consequently, the industry has adopted a strategy of gradual reduction rather than abrupt substitution, balancing performance requirements with cost control. Outlook: The trajectory for white goods in 2026 is undeniably pessimistic. Both production volumes and technical intensity (dosage per unit) are trending downward, creating a double drag on Pr-Nd demand. II. Consumer Electronics: Volume Resilience vs. Intensity Decline The consumer electronics sector, modeled by SMM, comprises four main segments: Mobile Phones , Tablets , Desktops/Laptops , and Smartwatches . These devices utilize NdFeB primarily for acoustic components (speakers/receivers) and haptic feedback motors, with emerging uses in magnetic charging interfaces. The specific consumption is generally low, ranging from 2-5g/unit , except for desktops which average 15g/unit . Market Performance (Jan-Feb 2026): Mobile Phones: 220 million units (+6.8% YoY). Micro-computer Equipment: 41.956 million units (-31% YoY). Breakdown: 21% Tablets, 27% Desktops, 52% Laptops. Smartwatches: 8.196 million units (+7.8% YoY). (Reason: The divergence in performance is stark. Mobile phone growth is driven by the global rollout of AI-enabled handsets and the replacement cycle for 5G devices, particularly in emerging markets. Conversely, the sharp collapse in micro-computer equipment reflects the post-pandemic normalization of demand; the massive stockpiling of devices during 2020-2022 has led to a prolonged digestion phase. Additionally, extended device lifespans due to improved hardware durability have further suppressed replacement rates for PCs and tablets.) 2026 Full-Year Forecast: SMM anticipates a 1% growth for mobile phones and micro-computers combined, and a 5% growth for smartwatches. (Reason: The muted outlook for computing devices stems from persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and corporate IT budget tightening. For smartwatches, growth is fueled by increasing health-monitoring capabilities and deeper ecosystem integration with smartphones. However, the entire sector faces a cloud of uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains and rising memory chip prices, which may force OEMs to revise production targets downward later in the year.) Demand Estimation: Mobile Phones: 3,109.8 tons Micro-computers: 2,018.9 tons Smartwatches: 125.06 tons Total 2026 Demand: 5,253.76 tons , a 3% decline from 5,421.19 tons in 2025. The primary driver for this decline is the continuous, albeit slow, reduction in specific consumption. As miniaturization advances and alternative magnetic materials improve, the amount of NdFeB required per device is shrinking. Despite the relatively low single-unit dosage, the massive scale of the consumer electronics industry ensures it remains a significant consumer of NdFeB. Moreover, this sector is characterized by highly standardized supply chains, where major OEMs maintain binding agreements with certified magnet suppliers, making demand relatively stable but resistant to price-driven spikes. III. Real Estate Related: Elevators and Power Tools The final segment covers industries tightly coupled with the real estate cycle: Elevators and Handheld Power Tools . 1. Elevators: Policy Support vs. Structural Headwinds In January-February 2026, elevator production reached 150,000 units , a 7.1% YoY increase . (Reason: This short-term surge is largely attributable to the acceleration of projects that were delayed in late 2025, as developers rushed to meet pre-delivery deadlines before stricter regulatory inspections took effect. Additionally, government mandates for retrofitting old residential communities with elevators in urban renewal zones provided a temporary boost to order books.) However, SMM forecasts a full-year contraction of -3% for 2026. (Reason: The long-term outlook is grim due to the fundamental slowdown in new residential construction starts, which remain at multi-year lows. The debt crisis plaguing major property developers continues to stall new project launches, directly impacting the demand for new elevator installations. While the retrofit market offers some support, it is insufficient to offset the collapse in new building commissions.) Calculation: Energy-saving Elevator Penetration: 90% Specific Consumption: 6 kg/unit (for energy-saving models). Total 2026 Demand: 7,222.6 tons , a 1.3% increase from 7,125.3 tons in 2025. (Reason for Growth: The slight increase in total tonnage despite falling production volumes is entirely driven by the rising penetration of energy-saving elevators. Stricter national energy efficiency standards (GB standards) are forcing manufacturers to adopt permanent magnet synchronous motors (PMSM) over traditional asynchronous motors, thereby increasing the average NdFeB dosage per unit even as the total number of units declines.) 2. Handheld Power Tools: A Direct Casualty of Property Slump Production of handheld power tools in Jan-Feb 2026 was 29.566 million units , down 0.24% YoY . SMM projects a -3% decline for the full year 2026. (Reason: The downturn is inextricably linked to the stagnation in the global and domestic real estate markets. Reduced renovation activities and a slowdown in infrastructure projects have dampened demand for professional-grade tools. Furthermore, high inventory levels in distribution channels across North America and Europe, resulting from over-ordering in 2024, have led to a prolonged period of destocking.) Definition & Scope: According to the National Bureau of Statistics, handheld electric tools refer to portable motor-driven tools operated by hand, including electric drills, grinders, sanders, saws, and screwdrivers . These products are highly sensitive to housing turnover and renovation rates. Demand Calculation: NdFeB Penetration: 60% Specific Consumption: 80g/unit Total 2026 Demand: 9,134 tons , a sharp 13.4% drop from 10,548 tons in 2025. The significant contraction in this sector underscores the deep correlation between the property market and industrial metal demand. As the real estate sector remains in a prolonged adjustment phase, the downstream demand for power tools—and consequently NdFeB—faces sustained pressure. Conclusion The analysis of white goods, consumer electronics, and real estate-related sectors paints a picture of structural weakness for 2026. While niche policy drivers (like energy-saving elevator mandates) provide isolated pockets of growth, the overarching trends are defined by production saturation, inventory destocking, and aggressive material substitution . The combined effect of lower production volumes and reduced single-unit dosages creates a formidable headwind for Pr-Nd prices. In the final installment of this series, we will pivot to the future: examining the burgeoning demand from Low-Altitude Economy (eVTOLs), Robotics (Industrial and Service), and the relentless expansion of Electric Two-Wheelers . These emerging sectors may hold the key to offsetting the declines observed in traditional industries and reshaping the long-term demand curve for rare earth magnets.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: SHFE Tin Pulled Back Under Pressure in Early Trading After Rebounding, and Spot Transactions Weakened]