From June 4 to 5, Huatai Securities' 2025 Mid-Year Investment Summit was held in Shanghai. Themed "Seeking Certainty Amidst Order Reconstruction," the summit delved into the new logic of global order reconstruction and the revaluation of Chinese assets. The two-day event comprised a main forum and 11 industry sub-forums, focusing on growth opportunities in sectors such as New Consumption 2, AI+, humanoid robots, and energy transition. Nearly 500 publicly listed firms were invited to participate in closed-door exchanges, attracting over 2,500 professional investors and institutional clients from public funds, private funds, banks, insurance companies, and publicly listed firms to register for the event. Notably, the summit featured a special "China + Southeast Asia" sub-forum, exploring industrial breakthrough strategies and capital empowerment pathways amidst the reconstruction of trade order from an international perspective. Experts such as Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, former Vice President of Renmin University of China, and co-founder of the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF); Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Director of the Fudan University US Research Center (a key humanities and social sciences research base under the Ministry of Education), and member of the Foreign Ministry's Foreign Policy Advisory Committee; Wei Shaojun, Professor at Tsinghua University, member of the National Advisory Committee for the Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry, Vice Chairman of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, and Chairman of the China JSTC of the World Semiconductor Council; and Siregar, Chief Economist of Indonesia's sovereign wealth fund Danantara, delivered keynote speeches on hot topics such as AI technological development, new logic in China's economy, and new policy approaches. Exploring Certainty Opportunities Amidst Order Reconstruction in the Macro Context In her opening remarks, Liang Hong, Chair of Huatai Securities' Institutional Business Committee, stated that in the face of prolonged trade conflicts, investors are eager to see how China will formulate new economic development strategies, promote broader and deeper economic reforms, and thereby increase residents' incomes and consumption willingness, as part of their expectations for the "15th Five-Year Plan." Liang Hong suggested that investors should adopt a longer-term perspective to explore certainty opportunities amidst order reconstruction within macro contexts such as global order reconstruction, supply chain reorganization, and new directions in capital flows. This also represents the core logic for global investors to reevaluate the value of the RMB and RMB-denominated assets, particularly in China's competitive industries and high-quality enterprises. The Huatai Research Macro Team conducted a roundtable discussion on current macroeconomic and market concerns. Maintaining the Forecast of 5% Real GDP Growth in 2025 Amidst external disruptions, Huatai Securities' Macro Team maintains its forecast of 5% real GDP growth for this year. What policy and external environment assumptions underpin this forecast?What is the logical basis for the expectation of RMB appreciation? Yi Huan, Chief Macroeconomist at Huatai Securities, stated that since April, the US tariff policy has been full of twists and turns, with uncertainties still remaining. However, on the whole, the impact of tariffs is relatively small compared to expectations at the end of last year. Domestically, China's macro policies have shown notable highlights. The growth in fiscal expenditure for the entire year is expected to exceed the nominal GDP growth rate, surpassing market expectations. The accelerated development of the technology cycle, with new quality productive forces such as AI+ emerging as new highlights, has also alleviated the drag on the economy from the downturn in the real estate sector. In addition, the depreciation of the US dollar has provided a boost to the development of emerging economies. From the perspectives of economic fundamentals and the repatriation of de-dollarization funds, the RMB has the momentum for appreciation, while the RMB's movement against a basket of currencies has remained basically stable. Under the trend of de-dollarization, RMB assets and the offshore RMB capital market will face structural opportunities for revaluation and expansion. Asset allocation should abandon bear market thinking and emphasize trading and left-side positioning. What are the key points for asset allocation in the second half of this year? The bond market is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. What are the operational suggestions? Zhang Jiqiang, Director of Huatai Securities Research Institute and Chief Fixed Income Analyst, stated that this year is a significant year for the macro cycle, with event-driven market trends being prominent and investors' allocations becoming more diversified and decentralized. In terms of asset allocation, investors should abandon bear market thinking, emphasize trading and left-side positioning, and focus on investment odds. In bond investment, the core contradiction in the bond market in the second half of the year is the "lack of certainty" amidst multiple intersecting variables. It is highly likely to continue exhibiting characteristics of a fluctuating market, with many disturbances and difficulties in judging the rhythm. The 10-year Treasury bond rate is expected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%. Strategically, it is necessary to emphasize swing trading, duration adjustment, and selection of bond types. The US stock market may face a concurrent downturn in three cycles. Lin Xiaoming, Chief Financial Engineering Analyst at Huatai Securities Research Institute, conducted research and judgment on asset allocation and the style of the A-share market in the second half of the year from the perspective of quantitative models. Lin Xiaoming pointed out that in the second half of the year, the global Kitchin cycle will enter a downturn phase, and the US stock market may face a concurrent downturn in the Kitchin, Juglar, and Kondratieff cycles. Against this backdrop, how to seek safe-haven assets amidst a liquidity crisis has become the key to asset allocation in the second half of the year. Unlike previous cycle downturns where safe-haven assets performed well, in this cycle downturn, it is possible that shorts in risky assets will outperform longs in safe-haven assets. Due to the constraints of US fiscal issues on US Treasuries, they may not be ideal safe-haven assets during this downturn period. Against the backdrop of increasingly unclear global trade and fiscal prospects, the long-term allocation value of gold will become more prominent. In the equity market, A-shares are likely to outperform overseas markets. It is recommended to adopt a barbell allocation strategy combining dividends and growth, and to pay attention to policy negotiation opportunities in the consumer sector. The revaluation process of Chinese assets has just begun. From a strategic perspective, given the expectation of RMB appreciation and the global de-dollarization process, will the pricing logic of A-shares change? What investment themes are worth paying attention to in H2? He Kang, Chief Strategist and Co-Head of Financial Engineering at Huatai Securities Research Institute, stated that in the long run, the revaluation process of Chinese assets has just started. Against the backdrop of RMB appreciation and global de-dollarization, the expectation of foreign capital inflows has strengthened, and their preferences may dominate the pricing power of A-shares. Index-weighted stocks and companies with excellent fundamentals are likely to benefit, corresponding to the finance, consumer, pharmaceutical sectors, and industry leaders. He Kang believes that multiple investment themes in the A-share market in H2 can be summarized as follows: After the trough of the real estate cycle, overlooked consumer demand and overlooked productivity improvements, especially capital expenditures in the high-tech sector, may gradually surface. H-shares show greater resilience amid the revaluation of RMB assets. This year, several top-tier enterprises have completed their H-share listings, injecting new vitality into the H-share market. Li Yujie, a strategy researcher at Huatai Securities, believes that factors such as Chinese enterprises going global, global reallocation driven by de-dollarization, and the internationalization of the RMB are highlighting the importance of the H-share market. In the medium and long-term, the expansion of the H-share market implies a need for increased capital allocation. It is recommended to pay attention to two trend changes: First, the technology sector corresponding to improved growth prospects. Global capital is more overweight in US technology stocks but remains underweight in Chinese ones. Second, with improved liquidity, the AH premium is expected to narrow. Scarcity plays in industry leaders, large-cap stocks, and active stocks under the Stock Connect scheme are worth noting. In the short term, external market disturbances may affect the performance of H-shares, but there are differences between Hong Kong and the US in terms of economic cycles and market positions. Moreover, H-shares show greater resilience amid the revaluation of RMB assets. The main driver of H-share performance in H2 may come from a "U"-shaped recovery in earnings.
Jun 5, 2025 14:50The latest strategic viewpoints from the top ten securities firms have just been released, as detailed below: Soochow Securities: June may mark the starting point of a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades The US dollar cycle is pivotal to the "East Rising, West Declining" trade. Historical experience shows that during periods of global liquidity easing and a weakening US dollar, non-US assets tend to strengthen, and the Chinese market will also benefit. Looking ahead, a weak US dollar remains the baseline assumption. Due to multiple factors such as ongoing disruptions from Trump's policies, the US government's debt pressure, and potential risks in the fundamentals, the US dollar is expected to trend weaker. Since the US dollar index turned down again in mid-May, it has once again fallen below the 100 mark. It is judged that the US dollar will continue to decline in June, possibly breaking below the previous low. The liquidity spillover driven by a weak US dollar will lead the A-share market to embark on a new round of "East Rising, West Declining" trades. In recent years, the value/growth style of the A-share market has been increasingly influenced by the US dollar cycle, specifically showing that growth stocks tend to outperform during periods of a weak US dollar. As June approaches, the technology sector will witness a series of catalytic events, and its prospects are expected to remain robust. Meanwhile, the valuations and liquidity of growth stocks will also benefit from a weak US dollar environment, potentially exhibiting better resilience. In terms of specific allocation directions, the main themes and industrial trends to focus on include: AI edge devices (including AI phones, AI glasses), AI large models, humanoid robots, controllable nuclear fusion, deep-sea technology, and autonomous driving. Zhongtai Securities: Maintaining the "switch from high to low" viewpoint at the current juncture The current market is at a critical period marked by the interplay of domestic and foreign policy variables. Domestically, the "15th Five-Year Plan" sets the tone, and reforms in public funds may reshape the market. Externally, intensifying tariff disputes between Europe and the US, as well as increased policy uncertainty within the US, will all have complex impacts on the market. At the current juncture, the "switch from high to low" viewpoint is still maintained, with a relatively optimistic stance on the technology sector. The overall market is expected to continue rotating rapidly among various hot topics in Q2. Investors should avoid chasing highs and instead focus on bottom-fishing opportunities, with this allocation logic remaining unchanged. 1) While maintaining a base portfolio of stable assets such as dividend stocks, gold, long-term bonds, and blue chips, focus on opportunities to bottom-fish in safety-related assets and technology stocks; 2) The high growth momentum in upstream AI computing power, servers, etc., as seen from Q1 earnings reports, is expected to continue into H2. Moreover, the update of the new version of DeepSeek may trigger investors' risk appetite for the technology sector; 3) The Trump administration has recently intensified technology restrictions on industries such as chips, coupled with China's increased emphasis on technology at the policy level. Among these, the direction of domestic substitution, represented by semiconductors, will also present certain opportunities. Overall, in Q2, the fundamentals of core city real estate and other endogenous momentum are gradually showing a "turning point," but total data may remain resilient under the "rush to switch exports." Current overall policies still maintain strong determination, but there is a high level of attention on the capital market, which may provide some support to the market. Hua Jin Securities: June Continues to Fluctuate Upward with Technology and Consumption Remaining the Main Themes In June, A-shares may continue to fluctuate upward. (1) Policies in June may be more proactive, with some uncertainty regarding external events. First, positive policies in June may accelerate implementation. Second, external events such as Sino-US tariff negotiations in June face some uncertainty. (2) The fundamentals in June may continue to improve. First, economic data in June may continue to show strength: firstly, the Dragon Boat Festival holiday and the "618" shopping season may keep consumption growth at a high level; secondly, overseas restocking may lead to a rebound in export growth in June; finally, accelerated policy implementation may maintain high growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment in June, although real estate investment growth remains weak. Second, profit growth in June may continue to be in a recovery cycle. (3) Liquidity in June may remain loose. First, repeated expectations of interest rate cuts overseas have limited impact on domestic easing. Second, the inflow of funds into the stock market in June may improve; historically, foreign and margin financing flows tend to increase in June; after the holiday, margin financing and foreign capital may also return. Technology and consumption remain the main themes, with some core assets and cyclical sectors possibly offering investment opportunities. First, new consumption is likely to generate excess returns in June; second, policy encouragement points to TMT and consumption, with high-growth industries mainly concentrated in non-ferrous metals, TMT, and machinery. It is recommended to continue to allocate on dips: first, sectors with upward policy and industry trends such as computer (domestic software, autonomous driving), robotics, military, media (AI applications, gaming), electronics (semiconductors), and communications (computing power); second, sectors where fundamental expectations may marginally improve, including innovative drugs, electric vehicles, food, social services, trade retail, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals. China Galaxy: Technology Will Remain the Medium and Long-Term Investment Theme Recently, the sector rotation speed has increased, and the market's volatile pattern has not changed, with no significant increase in trading volume, still dominated by existing players. There is considerable uncertainty in the external market. On May 29, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals granted the Trump administration's request to temporarily suspend the previous ruling by the US International Trade Court. Although a phased tariff agreement between China and the US has been reached, temporarily alleviating trade pressure, the Trump administration's policies remain unpredictable. In the short term, the market may continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to changes in external tariffs and the pace of domestic policy implementation. With the support of a series of domestic policies, the market's adjustment space is limited. Meanwhile, several major financial policies are expected to be announced during the Lujiazui Forum from June 18 to 19, which are likely to support market expectations. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities. In the long term, the trend of the A-share market will still reflect the principle of "taking our own path as the main focus". As the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. effectively plays the role of a "stabilization fund" and policies vigorously promote the entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, the A-share market will have a more solid foundation for stable operation. Allocation opportunities across three main themes: First, assets with a relatively high safety margin. Against the backdrop of significantly increased uncertainty in the external environment, the dividend sector, which has relatively strong earnings certainty and overall stable dividend returns, possesses defensive attributes. Second, the logic of the "technology narrative" in the A-share market is clear. The revised restructuring measures will help promote the participation of early-stage technology innovation enterprises in mergers and acquisitions. Technology will remain the main theme for medium and long-term allocation, with short-term focus on sub-sectors with lower valuations. Third, the big consumption sector boosted by policies. Economic data for April shows that the trade-in policy for consumer goods continues to be effective. Recently, the concept of new consumption has been repeatedly active. As uncertainty in the external environment increases, expanding domestic demand has become a long-term strategic move, highlighting the importance of boosting consumption. Dongguan Securities: The market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support. From the perspective of the market environment in June, overseas, the US tariff policy has been fluctuating, and the subsequent path of interest rate cuts by the US Fed will highly depend on subsequent economic data and tariff negotiation progress. Domestically, with the easing of Sino-US trade disputes, the implementation of a series of incremental policies by the "one bank, one bureau, one commission", and the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies and accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, all these provide strong support for the domestic economic fundamentals. In the capital market, the current concerted efforts to stabilize the capital market have injected key momentum into boosting investor confidence. Looking ahead to June, as Sino-US trade relations tend to ease, quasi-stabilization funds have played a crucial supporting role in hedging tail risks in the market. With the concerted efforts of all parties to promote the effective implementation of established policies, accelerate the strengthening of incremental policy reserves, and the continuous entry of medium and long-term funds into the market, it is expected to continuously improve the market's microstructure and enhance investor confidence. Against the backdrop of the combined forces of policies and funding, the market's overall risk appetite is expected to receive systematic support. However, considering that there may be certain selling pressure above, the market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. In the medium term, supported by the economy's resilience and the accumulation of policy tools, the broader market still has upward momentum. Sector Allocation: Overweight financials, utilities, non-ferrous metals, and TMT. BOC Securities: Exports May Exceed Expectations This Year From overseas industry inventory perspectives, most sectors are in the mid-stage of restocking except midstream industries like automobiles, machinery equipment, and transportation equipment. Downstream consumer goods-related sectors show more pronounced restocking, reflecting resilient overseas demand. Leading indicators suggest short-term overseas restocking demand will likely persist, with potential for exports to surpass expectations this year. Market-wise, since May, sectors tied to external demand have outperformed. The Geneva agreement between China and the U.S. temporarily boosted market sentiment, while April's stronger-than-expected exports corrected overly pessimistic expectations. Subsequent uncertainties around export and external demand strength remain the market's focus. Unlike 2018, tariff policies now pose significantly reduced impacts on domestic fundamentals and markets. Fundamentally, ample policy buffers mitigate economic downside risks, with domestic demand data and tariff progress influencing policy expectations. Market-wise, upside room depends on economic recovery strength, while "quasi-stabilization funds" contain downside risks. Uncertainty from Trump-era trade policies may prolong "diversion trade," with resilient demand potentially driving exports above expectations and strengthening external demand chains. GF Securities: China-U.S. Relations, Fiscal Stimulus, and DeepSeek's Tech Breakthrough May Trigger A-Share Market Breakout After April's oversold rebound, A-shares fluctuated rangebound near pre-reciprocal tariff levels, with only innovative drugs showing sectoral trends amid mostly thematic rotations. Looking ahead, China-U.S. relations, fiscal stimulus, and DeepSeek's tech milestone could serve as key triggers to escape this tight range. Absent domestic fiscal or bilateral progress, tech sector developments may prove pivotal. After three months of adjustment, tech stocks—especially AI-related segments—now meet prerequisites for a rebound: 1) TMT turnover ratios hover at the lower bound of 2023's AI narrative range, signaling potential momentum; 2) Since April's reciprocal-tariff rebound, margin balances stagnated at yearly lows, leaving room for incremental funding. Thus, June's concentrated tech giant product launches may prove decisive. Ping An Securities: New Quality Momentum Gathers Strength, Tech Growth Breaks Through Overseas, the US tariff policy faces multiple uncertainties from domestic judicial rulings and external negotiations, while Nvidia's Q1 results exceeded expectations again. Domestically, the manufacturing sector's prosperity margin rebounded in May, with high-tech industry profits showing positive trends; expectations for financial policies have increased. Overall, the current changes in the external environment still carry uncertainties, and the importance of self-reliance and controllability in domestic technology and the resilience of domestic demand continue to rise. Domestic policy support and the positive development of industries towards innovation are expected to continue to support the medium-term upward potential of the equity market. Structurally, attention should be paid to two main lines: First, the growth style represented by domestic technology and high-end manufacturing, such as the defense and military industry with upward industry prospects, and the direction of self-reliance and controllability in technology represented by semiconductors; second, high-quality consumer assets (new consumption/pharmaceutical and biological, etc.) that benefit from policies supporting the expansion of domestic demand. Huaxi Securities: A-shares in June Still in a Window Period for Market Recovery A-shares in June remain in a window period for market recovery. Recently, market trading sentiment has pulled back, mainly due to the repeated changes in the US tariff policy overseas. In addition, the slow pace of Sino-US trade negotiations may partly be due to tactical considerations in negotiations. Subsequent Phase II Sino-US consultations will remain a key influencing factor for market risk appetite. On the other hand, the strength of domestic medium and long-term patient capital is growing. By promoting the construction of long-term market stabilization mechanisms and signaling regular "market support," regulators will strongly support the bottom range of A-shares. ·In terms of industry allocation, maintain a moderately balanced allocation. Attention should be paid to precious metals, public utilities, new consumption, AI applications (software, hardware), etc. In terms of themes, attention should be paid to: military industry, self-reliance and controllability, mergers and acquisitions, etc. Everbright Securities: Consumption is Expected to Remain One of the Key Momentums for Economic Recovery The most severe period of short-term external risk disturbances may have passed, but vigilance is still needed regarding potential reversals in Trump's subsequent policies. Recently, domestic policies have remained actively implemented, and it is expected that subsequent policies will continue to be rolled out. With the US and China hitting the "pause" button on "reciprocal tariffs" for 90 days, exports may maintain high growth in the short term, and consumption is expected to remain one of the key momentums for economic recovery. Amidst the interplay of internal and external factors, it is expected that the index will remain volatile overall in June. Definite Main Lines: 1) Domestic consumption. Expanding domestic demand has been a key focus of recent domestic policies, and it is expected to continue to receive policy catalysts in the future. In addition, the overall performance of the consumer industry is more resilient. Attention should be paid to industries such as household goods, food processing, professional services, and leisure food. 2) Domestic substitution. Attention should be paid to two clues: performance certainty and thematic investment. The former focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US and strong domestic supply capabilities, including publishing, decoration materials, etc. The latter focuses on industries with a high proportion of imports from the US but with domestic supply capabilities expected to improve, such as aviation equipment, medical devices, animal health, and chemical pharmaceuticals. 3) Underallocated sectors by funds: The "Action Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of Public Funds" may have a profound impact on the asset allocation of the fund industry. Some sectors that are underallocated by funds are worth paying attention to in the medium and long-term, including banking, non-banking financial services, utilities, transportation, and other industries. However, in the short-term, it is necessary to be cautious about the potential expectation deviations that may arise from over-interpretation.
Jun 3, 2025 09:23Recently, Goldman Sachs released a report titled "The Strategic Case for Gold and Oil in Long-Term Portfolios," suggesting that long-term investors reconsider the role of gold and oil in their portfolios, based on the historical effectiveness of these assets in hedging against inflation shocks and systemic risks. Goldman Sachs analysts recommend that, over the next five years, "allocations to gold should be above normal levels," while "allocations to oil should be below normal levels (but still positive)." Allocating to Gold and Oil for Risk Hedging Goldman Sachs believes that "for investors seeking to minimize risk or tail losses given a certain level of return, an active, long-term allocation to gold and enhanced oil futures is optimal." The bank emphasizes that gold can hedge against risks associated with declining fiscal and central bank credibility, while oil can protect against negative supply shocks. Historically, "during any 12-month period when real returns on both stocks and bonds were negative, real returns on oil or gold were positive." Two Key Factors Support Overweighting Gold Goldman Sachs' call to overweight gold is primarily based on two main factors: "the elevated risk of shocks to the credibility of US institutions (e.g., fiscal expansion, pressure on the US Fed) and the boost in demand for gold from global central banks." So far in 2025, gold prices have surged by 26.6%, setting a series of records. This is largely linked to concerns about US policies—concerns that Goldman Sachs does not expect to reverse quickly. "If these concerns intensify, private investors could push gold prices well beyond our current forecasts—we currently forecast gold to reach $3,700 per ounce by the end of the year and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026." Meanwhile, amid the global trend of de-dollarization, foreign central banks will continue to increase their gold reserves to reduce reliance on US dollar-denominated assets. This trend is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Strategic Rationale for Allocating to Oil In contrast, the recommendation to underweight oil is driven by recent supply dynamics, as "high spare capacity in the crude oil market... reduces the risk of crude oil shortages in 2025-2026," Goldman Sachs writes. However, Goldman Sachs also notes that "starting from 2028, the growth in non-OPEC crude oil supply will slow significantly, increasing the risk of future oil inflation shocks," providing a rationale for maintaining a limited strategic allocation to oil. Goldman Sachs stated that by increasing holdings of gold and enhanced oil futures, the annualized volatility of the traditional 60/40 portfolio could be reduced from nearly 10% to 7%, while maintaining a historical average return of 8.7%.
May 29, 2025 19:13[Rental Yields Stage a Comeback Amid "Dual Decline" in Deposit and Loan Interest Rates] The recent interest rate adjustments in the financial market are profoundly influencing residents' asset allocation strategies. With the 5-year and above LPR dropping to 3.5%, coupled with commercial banks' deposit interest rates generally entering the "1% era," traditional wealth management returns continue to narrow. Real estate investments, which offer stable cash flows, are regaining market attention. In areas such as Longgang, Shenzhen, developers have keenly captured this trend shift. Multiple apartment projects are promoting the concept of "using rent to cover loan payments," emphasizing that rental yields above 4% have significantly surpassed the returns from fixed deposits.
May 29, 2025 09:05On May 27, amid the doldrums of the broader market, the share price of Hunan Gold also experienced a decline. As of 13:24 on the 27th, Hunan Gold fell by 1.54%, closing at 23.04 yuan per share. When asked, "What are the planned production volumes for the company's self-produced gold, antimony products, and tungsten products in 2025?", Hunan Gold stated on the investor interaction platform on May 27 that, the company plans to produce 72,475 kg of gold, 39,537 mt of antimony, and 1,100 standard mt of tungsten products in 2025. In 2024, the prices of antimony and gold saw significant increases, substantially boosting the profits of many related enterprises. 1# Antimony Ingot saw a 70.73% increase in 2024. 》Click to view SMM antimony metal spot prices 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot prices In 2024, antimony prices generally surged. Although prices slightly corrected since mid-October 2024, they remained high, resulting in a notable increase for the entire year. From the historical price trend of SMM 1# antimony ingot: the average price of SMM 1# antimony ingot was 82,000 yuan/mt on December 29, 2023, and 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024, marking an increase of 58,000 yuan/mt over the year, with a 70.73% increase in 2024. In 2025, antimony prices continued the upward trend of 2024. On May 27, the latest quote for SMM 1# antimony ingot was 221,500 yuan/mt, a 58.21% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. The year-to-date high of 238,000 yuan/mt represents a 70% increase compared to the average price of 140,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2024. After maintaining a firm price at 238,000 yuan/mt for over 20 days, the average price of antimony recently experienced some downward pressure. Although the fundamental supply and demand dynamics in the antimony market have not changed significantly, the substantial suspension of imported ore entering the domestic market has led to a severe shortage of domestic antimony raw materials. Additionally, the overall inventory of antimony products among domestic manufacturers is at historically low levels, prompting manufacturers to maintain stable pricing. In the domestic antimony end-use market, orders for both flame retardants and PV-related antimony products have remained basically stable. Although there has been no recent improvement in orders from the end-use sector, they have not deteriorated either, with a generally good pace of just-in-time procurement. However, due to the recent interplay of bullish and bearish market news, the sentiment in the retail investment market has become chaotic, leading to the entry of some low-priced supplies into the market and causing antimony prices to decline since May 15. Gold prices maintain an overall upward trend, with COMEX gold up nearly 27% year-to-date Following a 13.45% increase in 2023, COMEX gold surged by 27.39% in 2024. Since the beginning of this year, it has repeatedly hit record highs, reaching a peak of $3,509.9 per ounce. With the temporary suspension of US-EU tariff disputes and a rebound in market risk appetite, gold prices experienced a slight correction. However, recent fluctuations in US trade policies and market concerns about the US fiscal outlook have limited the downside room for gold prices. As of 14:33 on May 27, COMEX gold fell by 1.22%, closing at $3,353.2 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 26.97% in 2025. Regarding the outlook for gold prices, multiple institutions have the following views: Jinyuan Futures stated that despite the temporary easing of the US-EU trade war, there is still significant uncertainty in subsequent trade negotiations. The global economic outlook remains unclear, and geopolitical risks are frequent. Investors tend to seek more stable asset allocations, and it is expected that gold prices will maintain a fluctuating trend at highs in the short term. Citi has raised its 0-3 month target price for gold to $3,500 per ounce, and expects gold prices to consolidate between $3,100 and $3,500 per ounce. For gold prices at the end of this year and next year, Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd. maintains a forecast of $3,500 per ounce, with the peak possibly reaching $3,600 per ounce by mid-2026. This is due to considerations of downside risks to economic growth, and the possibility that the US Fed may continue to ease monetary policy. A report previously released by the World Gold Council showed that global gold prices hit record highs 20 times in Q1. Affected by this, the total global gold jewelry consumption decreased by 21% YoY, reaching its lowest point since 2020. However, there was a significant increase in gold investment demand. In Q1, the global gold investment demand was 551.9 mt, a substantial increase of 170% YoY. This indicates that against the backdrop of gold prices repeatedly reaching new highs, global gold jewelry demand has declined, but gold as an investment product is more favored.
May 27, 2025 14:49》[Live] Research and Analysis on Macroeconomy, Electric Power, Infrastructure, Real Estate, and PV Markets; Outlook on Copper and Aluminum Prices; Insights into Cable Technology Trends SMM News on May 22: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, overseas base metals generally declined, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE nickel rising together. SHFE aluminum rose by 0.2%, and SHFE nickel rose by 0.03%. SHFE lead led the losses with a decline of 1.21%, while SHFE tin fell by 0.87%. The main alumina contract rose by 1.01%, recording four consecutive gains. In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 1.67%, the main polysilicon contract rose by 1.14%, the main silicon metal contract fell by 0.19%, and the main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Iron ore led the gains with a rise of 0.14%, stainless steel rose by 0.04%, and HRC rose by 0.09%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 0.85%, and coke fell by 1.66%. In the overseas market, as of 15:02, only LME aluminum rose, up by 0.4%. The rest of the metals recorded varying degrees of decline, with LME lead falling by 0.91% and LME tin falling by 0.62%. The declines in other metals fluctuated slightly. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:02, COMEX gold rose by 0.49%, and COMEX silver rose by 0.12%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.22%, recording five consecutive gains, and SHFE silver rose by 1.06%. Market conditions as of 15:02 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation Seeks Public Comments on Renewal of Old Residential Elevators] According to today's official website news from the State Administration for Market Regulation, in order to thoroughly implement the relevant decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, systematically promote the use of ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds to support the renewal of old residential elevators, and ensure the safety of residents using elevators, the "Notice on Further Improving the Renewal of Old Residential Elevators (Draft for Comments)" has been drafted and is now open for public comments. It mentions that local market regulatory authorities should urge elevator manufacturing units to earnestly fulfill their production responsibilities and provide elevator products with high quality, reasonable prices, and excellent after-sales service for the renewal of old residential elevators. The safety performance indicators of the drive units, control systems, door systems, suspension devices, and deflector sheaves selected by the manufacturing units for the renewed elevators must not be lower than those of the original elevators in use, ensuring sufficient safety margins. [Total Installed Power Generation Capacity Nearly 3.5 Billion kW in the First Four Months of This Year] Statistics released by the National Energy Administration show that as of the end of April, the total installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.49 billion kW, up 15.9% YoY. Among them, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY; the installed capacity for wind power was 540 million kW, up 18.2% YoY. From January to April this year, the total investment in power supply projects by major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 193.3 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY; the total investment in power grid projects reached 140.8 billion yuan, up 14.6% YoY. [Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau: Supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges] Zhou Xiaoquan, Executive Deputy Director of the Shanghai Municipal Financial Regulatory Bureau, stated at the "2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum" that Shanghai is further strengthening the functions of its financial markets, supporting SHFE, CFFEX, and other financial markets in Shanghai to build world-class exchanges, accelerating the construction of a center for RMB financial asset allocation and risk management, and better serving national strategies and safeguarding national security. First, it will continue to deepen the opening up of financial markets and enhance their internationalization. It will deepen the interconnection and interoperability of financial markets and accelerate the launch of international-oriented financial products. Second, it will continue to improve the layout of the derivatives system and expand the breadth and depth of services to the real economy. It will support the further enrichment of commodity and financial futures products, empowering the development of new quality productive forces with a more comprehensive product system. Third, it will enhance the ability to prevent and resolve financial risks and safeguard national strategic security. It will leverage the functions of the futures market to help real enterprises better manage risks and safeguard the security of China's industry and supply chains. It will support financial markets in seizing opportunities in digitalization, intelligence, and green development, enhancing their capabilities for independent and controllable system operations and secure maintenance. (Caijing) [SHFE: Accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy and LNG] Tian Xiangyang, Chairman of SHFE, stated at the 2025 Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum that SHFE will establish a first-class product system that meets the needs of new quality productive forces, accelerating the R&D and listing of varieties such as cast aluminum alloy, LNG, offset printing paper, and corrugated base paper. It will create a first-class institutional mechanism that combines international standards with Chinese characteristics, steadily promoting portfolio margining, launching new trading instructions, and deepening the market's functions. The People's Bank of China conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 64.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 90 billion yuan was achieved. ► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 22 was 7.1903 yuan per US dollar. US dollar: As of 15:02, the US dollar index fell by 0.01% to 99.6. Increased market concerns over the growing US debt, coupled with weak demand for 20-year US Treasury bonds, highlighted the market's low appetite for US assets. US House Speaker Johnson stated that a vote on a massive tax cut and spending bill could take place as early as Wednesday evening. The US Treasury Department sold $16 billion worth of 20-year bonds on Wednesday, but demand was weak. Investors are concerned that as Congress continues to debate the tax cut bill, the US debt burden will continue to grow. Later this week, several US Fed officials will deliver speeches that may provide further clues about the economy and the central bank's policy path. The market is currently pricing in at least a 50 basis point interest rate cut this year, with the first cut expected in October. Macro Aspects: Today, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for France in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for Germany in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone in May, the Germany May IFO Business Climate Index, the preliminary SPGI Services PMI for the UK in May, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the UK in May, the CBI Industrial Trends Orders in the UK in May, the CFIB Business Barometer in Canada in May, the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, the continued jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 10, the preliminary SPGI Manufacturing PMI for the US in May, and the annualized total of existing home sales in the US in April, among other data, will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that Thomas Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will attend an event titled "Fed Listens." The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference, where Qiu Yong, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Zhu Hexin, Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and relevant officials from the National Administration of Financial Regulation and the China Securities Regulatory Commission will introduce the situation regarding science and technology finance policies and answer questions from reporters. The European Central Bank will release the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting. Crude Oil Aspects: As of 15:02, oil prices in both markets fell simultaneously, with US oil down 1.61% and Brent oil down 1.63%. Kazakhstan continues to overproduce, and OPEC+ may adopt a more aggressive production increase strategy to enforce discipline. Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded its OPEC+ production quota, with its oil output further increasing by 2% in May to reach 1.86 million barrels per day, far exceeding its quota of 1.486 million barrels per day. This country, which has significantly overproduced, is becoming a headache for cooperation within OPEC+, undermining the credibility of OPEC+'s compensatory production cut agreement. OPEC+ may still consider a more aggressive production increase strategy on June 1 to warn member countries within the organization to strengthen production cut discipline, thereby putting greater supply pressure on the oil market. As Saudi Arabia shifts towards increasing production and demand slows down, the risk of inventory buildup in the oil market is gradually intensifying. According to the IEA's latest monthly report, it is expected that the increase in global crude oil supply in 2025 will far exceed the increase in demand, which is also the mainstream view of the vast majority of research institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly raised its forecast for global supply growth in 2025 by 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 1.6 million bpd, primarily due to Saudi Arabia's shift from adhering to production cuts to accelerating production increases. The IEA also sharply lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.03 million bpd to 730,000 bpd, and further reduced its projection for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 690,000 bpd, citing a global economic slowdown leading to a slowdown in oil product consumption. Meanwhile, OPEC lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 from 1.45 million bpd to 1.3 million bpd. While the organization remains more optimistic from a seller's perspective, it has to admit that the demand outlook is deteriorating. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] May 22: Indonesian MHP prices slightly decline ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] May 22: Nickel salt prices remain stable
May 22, 2025 15:22Driven by multiple positive factors, most Hong Kong-listed gold stocks strengthened. As of press time, Qomolangma Gold (01815.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 13.22%, 7.60%, 7%, and 6.59%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, the UK, France, and Canada jointly pressured Israel to pause its military operations in Gaza, with the UK announcing the suspension of trade agreement negotiations with Israel. Additionally, reports indicated that US intelligence had discovered that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The escalating geopolitical tensions directly stimulated market risk-averse sentiment. Currently, COMEX gold prices have broken through the $3,300 mark, rising 0.68% as of press time, to trade at $3,335. Note: Performance of COMEX gold In addition to the above news, the fundamentals of gold are strongly supported. Surge in China's imports: In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 mt, surging 73% MoM, hitting an 11-month high, reflecting robust domestic investment and consumer demand. Global central banks' gold purchases continue: The World Gold Council pointed out that in April, the Shanghai gold price denominated in RMB rose by 6.9%, the highest for the same period in nearly 19 years. Central banks' continuous gold purchases provide support for long-term prices. How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team maintained its forecast targets of $3,700/oz for gold prices by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This judgment is based on two core factors: The combined impact of the US Fed's delayed interest rate cut and the decreased probability of an economic recession (the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling from 45% to 35%) on the 2026 target price is only $15/oz, with the terminal interest rate expectation still anchored at 3.5%-3.75%; the mild shift of private sector asset allocation towards gold offsets the slight negative impact of improved cyclical macroeconomic conditions. Founder Securities believes that the current gold price is already at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, with the recent easing of external events such as the trade war, it may trigger some investors to take profits at high levels or central banks to slow down their gold purchases in the short term, leading to a phased correction in gold prices. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar credit, the initiation of the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and the continuous increase in gold purchases by global central banks, gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend after short-term adjustments.
May 21, 2025 18:10From May 19 to 20, the 2025 Global Investors Conference, hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, was held in Shenzhen. Nearly 400 representatives from domestic and overseas exchanges and asset management institutions participated in the event. During interviews, several foreign institutions, including Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd. {{company}}, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and Mirae Asset Global Investments, expressed that global investors' confidence in the Chinese market is growing, and they are gradually increasing their allocation to Chinese assets. A foreign institution pointed out that over the past few years, the market capitalization of artificial intelligence (AI) and big tech companies in A-shares has been steadily increasing. Comprehensive policy easing is facilitating a revaluation of the Chinese stock market. During this process, overseas investors generally have a positive outlook on the growth potential of companies in sectors related to technology or AI R&D, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, and they are beginning to further actively deploy capital in these areas. In their view, sustained high-level opening-up, especially in the financial sector, has laid a solid foundation for attracting high-quality overseas long-term capital to China's capital markets, and foreign institutions are also embracing new development opportunities. Some foreign institutions have stated that they will continue to seize the opportunities presented by China's two-way financial opening-up and look forward to further expanding their businesses in areas such as derivatives and ETFs. Global investors' confidence in the Chinese market is growing Recently, through communication with overseas investors, many foreign institutions have sensed that global investors' confidence in the Chinese market is growing. More and more investors are seeking investment opportunities in China, and foreign institutions are gradually increasing their allocation to Chinese assets. "Global investors' confidence in the Chinese market is growing," said Joohee An, Chief Investment Officer of Mirae Asset Global Investments (Hong Kong) Limited. She pointed out that recent technological breakthroughs in AI and robotics in China indicate significant progress in independent technological innovation. This technological breakthrough has boosted the confidence of private enterprises and consumers. Meanwhile, due to the government's continued support for private enterprises, a large number of private enterprises with ample cash flow are expected to expand their capital expenditures and talent recruitment, thereby forming a positive cycle that drives consumption recovery and ultimately improves corporate profits. In addition, compared to the past, China is now better equipped to handle trade frictions with the US. Despite fluctuations in the external environment, the RMB exchange rate has demonstrated greater stability. "Therefore, foreign institutions are gradually increasing their allocation to Chinese assets, expecting limited downside risks to corporate profits and anticipating a market revaluation," said Joohee An. "At the recently concluded Morgan Stanley China BEST Conference, over 80% of investors indicated that they are likely to increase their exposure to Chinese stocks in the near future."Shen Li, Managing Director and Head of China Onshore Equities at Morgan Stanley, said. She observed that overseas markets have recently experienced significant volatility, and global asset allocation is facing a new landscape. Regarding the Chinese market, at the State Council Information Office press conference on May 7, the key leaders of the People's Bank of China, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange implemented a series of "stimulus policy package" measures to stabilize the market from the perspectives of policy hedging, capital hedging, and expectation hedging, significantly boosting the confidence of investors and the market. Offshore investors, particularly long-term capital, have also demonstrated high patience and enthusiasm, with an overall net inflow of capital since Q4 2024. From a survey of Asian fund managers, Wang Wei, CEO of Bank of America China and Head of Fixed Income, Currencies, and Commodities Sales for Greater China, observed that an increasing number of investors are seeking investment opportunities in China, with only 16% of investors exploring other opportunities, down from 26% the previous month, and 10% of investors already fully invested in China. "Market interest in China has rebounded: In the past week, we met with many investors at our 'China Investment Summit' in Shenzhen. The record-breaking attendance at the event demonstrated strong investor interest, with some overseas investors heading to China for the first time in years," Wang Wei said. Many investors praised China's recent policy consistency and clarity and were optimistic about China's continued technological progress. Some investors noted that the confidence of onshore investors and consumers also seems to have recovered to its highest level since 2021. "Through frequent communication with overseas investors, I sense that, whether they are quantitative funds or market makers, some overseas investors hope to better participate in the Chinese market due to needs such as liquidity," said Fang Dongming, Head of China at UBS's Global Financial Markets Division. He added that China's regulators are also actively responding to the concerns of global investors and providing them with practical assistance. He understands that overseas investors are particularly concerned about topics such as the short- to medium-term economic trajectory of China, including the scale of fiscal stimulus, the state of real estate activity, and the pace of consumer spending recovery. Artificial intelligence and related industries (including humanoid/industrial robots, AI glasses, etc.) remain key investment themes of interest to international investors. Comprehensive Policy Easing is Aiding the Revaluation of China's Stock Market When discussing the unique appeal of China's new quality productive forces to overseas long-term capital, many foreign investors mentioned key words such as artificial intelligence, robotics, high value-added, precision manufacturing, innovation, and revaluation. Taking Shen Li as an example, she stated that overseas investors are generally optimistic about the growth potential of companies in sectors related to technology or AI R&D, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing, and have begun to further actively deploy capital in these areas. In Fang Dongming's view, the development of AI and DeepSeek's boost to risk appetite for technology investments are among the narrative changes driving up the valuation of Chinese stocks this year, and have also strongly bolstered the confidence of domestic investors and international investors' attention to the Chinese stock market. Considering that the development of AI is not a short-term process, its impact on profits will gradually manifest over the next two to three years. He believes that in the next phase, A-share listed companies should actively innovate while balancing their core businesses, in response to the regulatory emphasis and calls for exploring the development of new quality productive forces since the introduction of the new "nine guidelines." "We have observed that in recent years, the market capitalization of AI and big tech in A-shares has been continuously increasing. Comprehensive policy easing is helping the Chinese stock market undergo valuation restructuring." "The A-share market has already attained greater strategic importance. From a diversification perspective, Chinese stocks are valued at more than 10% lower than other emerging markets." Fang Dongming stated that in specific industries, some self-reliant and controllable sectors, such as consumer staples, may actually benefit from overseas policy disruptions. China can still provide opportunities for excess returns to its clients globally in many aspects. Joohee An emphasized innovation and high value-added. She believes that in recent years, multinational corporations have been accelerating the implementation of supply chain diversification strategies such as "China + 1." In this context, the significant difference between China and major regions receiving "+1" capacity transfers, such as India and ASEAN, lies in China's ability to deeply integrate disruptive innovative technologies into production processes. "Although low value-added segments of the industry chain will continue to relocate to other countries, more high value-added and precision manufacturing industries are more likely to choose to stay in China due to its unique advantages of high technology, high efficiency, high quality, and high cost-effectiveness." Joohee An pointed out that this trend is particularly evident in emerging fields such as AI, robotics, clean energy, and biotechnology. New Opportunities for Foreign Institutions in China On the one hand, foreign institutions are gradually increasing their allocation of Chinese assets; on the other hand, with the steady advancement of the high-level opening-up of China's capital market, foreign institutions are also embracing new development opportunities in China. "Sustained high-level opening-up, especially in the financial sector, has laid a solid foundation for China's capital market to attract high-quality overseas long-term funds."Ming Fang, the landlord, stated. Ningxia Ruiyin Lead Resource Recycling Co., Ltd. has always been a significant broker participating in A-shares through QFII and the northbound funds of the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, maintaining a leading position in market share. Ming Fang revealed that, through continuous efforts to enhance trading capabilities and service quality, the company's daily average northbound trading volume via the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect has increased 12-fold compared to 2017. "Ningxia Ruiyin will continue to seize the opportunities of China's two-way financial opening, promoting more overseas investors to understand the changes in the Chinese market and participate in it to a greater extent," said Ming Fang. On one hand, the company will continue to serve short- and medium-term trading investors well, and on the other hand, it will focus on serving medium- and long-term investment investors, while also looking forward to further developing business in the derivatives and ETF fields. Li Shen also believes that in recent years, the high-level opening of China's capital market has been steadily advancing, with the space for institutional opening of the capital market led by the new "National Nine Articles" continuously expanding, and the attractiveness of the Chinese market to foreign capital has been continuously increasing, bringing new development opportunities for foreign institutions. These opportunities are mainly manifested in: China has continuously introduced high-level institutional opening policies—clearly supporting qualified foreign institutions to establish institutions in China, continuously improving the openness of financial markets, including removing foreign shareholding ratio restrictions, relaxing the entry conditions for foreign institutions and businesses, and expanding the business scope of foreign institutions, thereby continuously expanding the breadth and depth of opening up, allowing foreign capital to enter and stay. At the same time, China has continuously improved and refined the QFII system, and the deepening of the interconnection mechanism has attracted more foreign financial institutions and long-term capital to operate and invest in China. As one of the first QFIIs to enter China in 2003, Morgan Stanley has been continuously investing in the Chinese capital market for over 20 years. In addition to the continuous development and improvement of the QFII/RQFII system, the launch of the interconnection mechanism 10 years ago has provided overseas investors with a more convenient way to participate in the Chinese capital market. "We see that the relevant systems are still in the process of continuous optimization and deepening, providing more convenient conditions for attracting more long-term and patient capital," said Li Shen. She observed from a micro level that exchanges have also been continuously improving the management of trading rules and trading behaviors in recent years, with the overall idea of "seeking benefits and avoiding harm, highlighting fairness, strict supervision, and standardized development," injecting more transparency and fairness into the market, which has laid a solid foundation for foreign institutions to make long-term arrangements in the Chinese market.
May 21, 2025 10:36From May 19 to 20, the 2025 Global Investors Conference, hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, was held in Shenzhen. Themed "New Quality Productive Forces: New Investment Opportunities in China – Shenzhen's Open and Innovative Market," the conference attracted nearly 400 representatives from domestic and overseas exchanges and asset management institutions. The event showcased the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market through various formats. At the conference, Li Ming, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), stated that in recent years, the CSRC has resolutely implemented the important deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to promote high-level financial opening-up. It has advanced the two-way opening-up of markets, products, and institutions, continuously enhancing the convenience and stability of cross-border investment and financing. Currently, the market capitalization of A-shares held by various types of foreign investors has stabilized at around RMB 3 trillion, making them an important participating force in the A-share market. Regarding key issues such as the value of China's economy and A-share investors, the vitality of publicly listed firms, and the commitment to opening up the capital market, as well as the future policy direction of the capital market, six major points in Li Ming's speech are worth noting. The first point is about long-term investment. Since the beginning of this year, medium and long-term funds, including those from social security, insurance, and annuities, have cumulatively net purchased over RMB 200 billion worth of A-shares, reflecting the formation of a virtuous cycle where medium and long-term funds are accelerating their inflows while the stock market remains stable with moderate growth. The second point is about A-share listed firms. Since 2024, over 90% of newly listed companies have been high-tech enterprises, indicating a continuous improvement in the technological prowess and innovative momentum of A-share listed firms. The third point is about returns to investors. In 2024, A-share listed firms distributed a total of RMB 2.4 trillion in dividends and repurchased RMB 147.6 billion worth of shares, both hitting record highs. More and more companies are distributing dividends multiple times a year, with the dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index approaching 3.6%. The fourth point is about A-share valuations. The price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index stands at 12.6, significantly lower than major indices in overseas markets, further highlighting its allocation value. The fifth point is about the opening-up of the capital market. China's capital market will remain steadfast in its opening-up efforts. The CSRC will strengthen the top-level institutional design for opening-up in accordance with the deployment requirements of institutional opening-up, focusing on promoting the compatibility and interoperability of rules, regulations, management, and standards, so that institutions can better play a fundamental role in advancing two-way opening-up, anchoring the foundation and benefiting the long term. The sixth point is that policies and measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) and the ChiNext Market will be introduced. These will provide more suitable and inclusive institutional support for the innovative growth of enterprises. The CSRC will continue to guide listed firms to actively enhance their investment value through methods such as cash dividends, share repurchases and increases, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring, continuously cultivating a group of high-quality and dynamic listed firms to provide more quality investment targets for global investors. In addition, mechanisms such as the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) scheme will be optimized to support eligible foreign institutions in applying for new businesses and launching new products. Investing in China means greater certainty. Li Ming introduced the value of investing in China from the perspectives of China's economic fundamentals and capital markets. He stated that amid the backdrop of a slowing global economic growth, China has consistently emphasized both expanding domestic demand and opening up, accelerating the construction of a new development paradigm, and remained a major contributor to global GDP growth. This year, China's GDP achieved a strong start in the first quarter, demonstrating robust resilience. In recent years, a series of policy measures aimed at advancing the construction of a unified national market, expanding domestic demand, safeguarding people's livelihoods, and preventing and mitigating risks in key areas have yielded remarkable results. Turning to the capital markets themselves, Li Ming noted that since last year, the new "State Council's Nine-Point Plan" and the "1+N" policy framework have been gradually implemented, with regulatory enforcement and investor protection efforts continuously strengthened. Key initiatives, such as the influx of medium and long-term funds into the market and the reform of publicly offered funds, have been advancing in depth, and the market ecosystem is being improved at an accelerated pace. With the continuous deepening of comprehensive reforms in investment and financing in the capital markets, the inherent stability of China's capital markets will be further enhanced. "In particular, the central government attaches great importance to strengthening the reserve of strategic forces and the construction of market stabilization mechanisms. The stabilization model, with the Central Huijin Investment Ltd. playing a role akin to a 'stabilization fund' at the forefront, the People's Bank of China providing strong support from behind, and other parties collaborating, has greatly enhanced the confidence and capability of the capital markets to respond to various risks and challenges in complex environments," Li Ming said. From a global perspective, at a time when stability has become a scarce resource, a more resilient Chinese economy and a more robust A-share market will provide irreplaceable investment opportunities for global investors. Since the beginning of this year, medium and long-term funds, including those from social security, insurance, and annuities, have cumulatively net purchased over 200 billion yuan worth of A-shares, reflecting the formation of a virtuous cycle where the accelerated inflow of medium and long-term funds coincides with the steady rise of the stock market. The valuation level of A-shares remains relatively low. Currently, the A-share market boasts over 5,000 publicly listed firms, covering various sectors of the national economy. This is a vivid portrayal of China's comprehensive industrial categories and its accelerated transformation and upgrading. Li Ming stated that in the face of multiple pressures, the performance of A-share listed companies has generally maintained resilience, with three-quarters of the companies achieving profitability and half of the enterprises sustaining profit growth. Two aspects of change are particularly noteworthy. First, the technological prowess and innovation momentum of A-share listed companies are continuously improving. Among the companies newly listed since 2024, high-tech enterprises account for over 90%. A batch of leading enterprises have rapidly emerged in fields such as advanced manufacturing, digital economy, and green and low-carbon sectors, standing out in global competition and attracting widespread attention from global investors. Publicly listed firms are demonstrating strong innovation momentum. In 2024, the total R&D expenses of physical publicly listed firms reached 1.6 trillion yuan, up 3.1% YoY. Over 800 publicly listed firms had an R&D intensity exceeding 10%. "Recently, we will also introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the ChiNext Market, providing more suitable and inclusive institutional support for the innovative growth of enterprises," Li Ming stated. Secondly, publicly listed firms are placing greater emphasis on rewarding investors. In 2024, A-share publicly listed firms distributed a total of 2.4 trillion yuan in dividends and repurchased shares worth 147.6 billion yuan, both hitting record highs. An increasing number of enterprises are distributing dividends multiple times a year. The dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index is approaching 3.6%, further enhancing the stability and predictability of returns to investors. Li Ming emphasized that the current valuation level of A-shares remains relatively low, with the CSI 300 price-to-earnings ratio at 12.6, significantly lower than the major indices of overseas markets, highlighting the increased allocation value. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the revised "Administrative Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies," strengthening support for asset restructuring of publicly listed firms. Going forward, we will continue to guide publicly listed firms to actively enhance their investment value through cash dividends, share repurchases and increases in holdings, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring, continuously cultivating a group of high-quality and dynamic publicly listed firms to provide more high-quality investment targets for global investors. Four Focuses to Strengthen the Pace of China's Capital Market Opening-up In recent years, the CSRC has actively expanded cross-border connectivity, comprehensively removed foreign ownership restrictions in industry institutions, and continuously expanded the range of futures and options varieties that foreign institutions can participate in trading. A series of measures have achieved positive results. Li Ming stated that China's capital market opening-up will remain resolute. We will, in accordance with the deployment requirements for institutional opening-up, strengthen the top-level institutional design for opening-up, and advance the pace of opening-up by focusing on the compatibility and interoperability of external systems, transparency, systematicness, and multilateral cooperation. Specifically, firstly, we will focus on promoting the compatibility and interoperability of rules, regulations, management, and standards, allowing institutions to better play a fundamental role in advancing two-way opening-up that stabilizes the foundation and benefits the long term. Secondly, we will focus on enhancing the transparency and predictability of institutions, improving communication mechanisms with international investors, further enhancing the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filing management, optimizing institutional arrangements such as qualified foreign institutional investors, supporting eligible foreign institutions to apply for new businesses and launch new products, and continuously improving the cross-border financial services system. Thirdly, we will focus on enhancing the systematicness of opening-up, strengthening the coordination of opening-up in the stock, bond, and futures markets, increasing the supply of internationalized futures and options varieties, and enriching tools for asset allocation and risk management. Fourth, we will focus on strengthening bilateral and multilateral cross-border regulatory cooperation, actively participating in the formulation of international standards and rules, further enhancing cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong markets, and consolidating Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. Li Ming stated that foreign investors are important participants and contributors to China's capital market. He hoped that global investors would offer valuable insights and share beneficial experiences to jointly create a market ecosystem where various types of funds are "willing to come, able to stay, and can thrive."
May 19, 2025 13:16The Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) hosted the two-day 2025 Global Investors Conference in Shenzhen from May 19 to 20. Themed "New Quality Productive Forces: New Investment Opportunities in China - Shenzhen's Open and Innovative Market," the conference showcased the investment value of Chinese assets and the A-share market through keynote speeches, roundtable discussions, company roadshows, and other formats. Li Ming, Vice Chairman of the CSRC: The current valuation of A-shares remains relatively low Li Ming, Vice Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), stated at the 2025 Global Investors Conference hosted by the SZSE that the current valuation of A-shares remains relatively low. The price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 Index stands at 12.6, significantly lower than major indices in overseas markets, further highlighting its allocation value. Currently, the market value of A-shares held by various types of foreign investors remains stable at around 3 trillion yuan Li Ming noted that currently, the market value of A-shares held by various types of foreign investors remains stable at around 3 trillion yuan, making them an important participating force in the A-share market. We believe that as the achievements of China's high-quality economic development become more evident and as the vitality of reform and opening up is further unleashed, China's capital market will undoubtedly become a crucial platform for more foreign investment and business development, offering more opportunities for global investors to share in the dividends of China's development. Policy measures to deepen reforms of the STAR Market and ChiNext will be introduced in the near future Li Ming stated that in the near future, we will also introduce policy measures to deepen reforms of the STAR Market and ChiNext, providing more suitable and inclusive institutional support for the innovative growth of enterprises. We will optimize institutional arrangements for qualified foreign institutional investors and support eligible foreign institutions in applying for new businesses and launching new products Li Ming stated that next, the CSRC will, in accordance with the deployment requirements for institutional opening-up, strengthen the top-level institutional design for opening up, focus on promoting the compatibility and interoperability of rules, regulations, management, and standards, and allow institutions to better play a fundamental role in advancing two-way opening up that stabilizes the foundation and benefits the long term. We will focus on enhancing the transparency and predictability of institutions, improving communication mechanisms with international investors, further enhancing the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filing management, optimizing institutional arrangements for qualified foreign institutional investors, supporting eligible foreign institutions in applying for new businesses and launching new products, and continuously improving the cross-border financial services system. We will focus on enhancing the systematic nature of opening up, strengthening the coordination of opening up in the stock, bond, and futures markets, increasing the supply of internationalized futures and options varieties, and enriching tools for asset allocation and risk management. We will focus on enhancing bilateral and multilateral cross-border regulatory cooperation, actively participating in the formulation of international standards and rules, further strengthening cooperation between the mainland and Hong Kong markets, and consolidating Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. We hope global investors will offer valuable insights and share beneficial experiences, working with us to create a market ecosystem where various types of funds are "willing to come, able to stay, and can thrive." Medium and long-term funds, including those from social security, insurance, and annuities, have cumulatively net purchased over RMB 200 billion worth of A-shares this year. Li Ming stated that since the beginning of this year, medium and long-term funds, including those from social security, insurance, and annuities, have cumulatively net purchased over RMB 200 billion worth of A-shares, reflecting the formation of a virtuous cycle where the accelerated inflow of medium and long-term funds coincides with a steady and rising stock market. Last year, the total dividends paid by A-share companies and the amount spent on share buybacks both reached record highs. In his speech, Li Ming stated that efforts will continue to guide publicly listed firms to actively enhance their investment value through cash dividends, share buybacks and increases in holdings, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring. In 2024, A-share listed firms distributed a total of RMB 2.4 trillion in dividends and repurchased shares worth RMB 147.6 billion, both setting new historical highs. An increasing number of enterprises are distributing dividends multiple times a year. The dividend yield of the CSI 300 Index is approaching 3.6%, further enhancing the stability and predictability of returns to investors. Currently, the valuation level of A-shares remains relatively low, with the CSI 300 price-to-earnings ratio at 12.6, significantly lower than the major indices of overseas markets, further highlighting their allocation value. Last year, high-tech enterprises accounted for over 90% of newly listed companies. In his speech, Li Ming stated that since 2024, high-tech enterprises have accounted for over 90% of newly listed companies. The market capitalization of listed firms in strategic emerging industries across the entire market has exceeded 40%. A group of leading enterprises has rapidly emerged in advanced manufacturing, digital economy, green and low-carbon sectors, standing out in global competition and attracting widespread attention from global investors. Listed firms exhibit strong innovation momentum, with the total R&D expenses of physical listed firms reaching RMB 1.6 trillion in 2024, up 3.1% YoY. Over 800 listed firms have an R&D intensity exceeding 10%. We will strengthen the top-level institutional design for the opening-up of the capital market and improve the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filing management. Li Ming stated that China's capital market will remain steadfast in its opening-up efforts. In line with the deployment requirements for institutional opening-up, China will strengthen the top-level institutional design for opening-up, focusing on promoting compatibility and interoperability in rules, regulations, management, and standards, allowing institutions to better play a fundamental role in advancing two-way opening-up that anchors the foundation and benefits the long term. Efforts will be made to enhance the transparency and predictability of institutions, improve communication mechanisms with international investors, further enhance the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filing management, optimize institutional arrangements such as those for qualified foreign institutional investors, support eligible foreign institutions in applying for new businesses and launching new products, and continuously improve the cross-border financial services system.
May 19, 2025 10:54