Iran’s threat to drive oil prices up to $200 a barrel may sound like hyperbole, but as the energy crisis persisted, that outcome already looked more likely than US President Trump’s prediction that oil prices would soon pull back to pre-war levels… The conflict involving Israel and the US against Iran entered its third week — and escalated into one spanning the entire Middle East — yet the global oil benchmark’s response so far was surprisingly “mediocre.” Brent crude oil was currently trading near $100 a barrel, up about 65 from the start of the year. Although that level would have been unimaginable just a few weeks ago, it still remained below last Monday’s brief peak of nearly $120. Given that since the conflict began, the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz had trapped about one-fifth of global oil supply — roughly 20 million barrels a day — crude oil prices should, in theory, have been much higher. That seemed to suggest investors still retained a degree of trust in Trump , betting that the crisis would be resolved quickly and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen — whether it was called the “Trump put,” the “TACO trade,” or “buy Trump,” many oil traders appeared to be wagering that the president would ultimately be able to limit the market damage. “When this is over, oil prices will come down very, very quickly,” Trump said on Monday this week. Yet that optimism looked increasingly difficult to reconcile with realities on the ground — whether on a battlefield where the conflict was intensifying, or in the physical oil market, where supply bottlenecks were steadily spreading. Signals Being Overlooked In fact, the physical crude oil market was sending an increasing number of stress signals, even though the international benchmark “paper oil” market had so far largely ignored them. Although trade had stalled under the impact of the Iran conflict, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks still surged to record highs, making them the most expensive crude in the world. The spike in these benchmark indicators, which are used to price millions of barrels of Middle Eastern crude sold to Asia, was raising costs for Asian refiners and forcing them to seek alternatives or make further production cuts in the coming months. S&P Global Platts said Dubai spot crude assessments for May-loading cargoes hit a record $157.66 a barrel on Tuesday, surpassing the previous all-time high of $147.5 set by Brent crude oil futures in 2008. That left Dubai crude’s premium to swaps at $60.82 a barrel, compared with an average premium of just 90¢ in February. Meanwhile, Oman crude oil futures hit a record high of $152.58 per barrel on Tuesday, with its premium to the Dubai swap set at $55.74 per barrel, versus an average premium of just 75¢ in February. Oman crude oil is exported from a terminal outside the Strait of Hormuz. This surge reflected massive uncertainty over actually available supply in the Middle East after Iran repeatedly attacked Oman's oil terminal and the UAE's major oil export terminal of Fujairah outside the Strait of Hormuz. Are Brent and WTI Failing to Reflect the "True Severity" of the Oil Market? As JPMorgan's head of commodities, Natasha Kaneva, pointed out in her latest research note on Tuesday , there was a clear mismatch between international benchmark crude pricing and the Middle Eastern geography of the supply disruptions. The core issue was that Brent and WTI are benchmark indicators at opposite ends of the Atlantic basin, while the current shock is concentrated in the Middle East. As a result, these benchmark crude prices were particularly influenced by relatively loose regional fundamentals—commercial oil inventory in both the US and Europe were ample in early 2026, and supply across the Atlantic basin was also relatively abundant in the short term. In addition, expectations for a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)—as well as a partial release that will soon materialize—further eased prompt tightness in Brent- and WTI-linked markets. By contrast, Middle Eastern crude benchmarks such as Dubai and Oman more accurately reflected the current dislocation in the physical market. Dubai and Oman spot prices were both trading above $150 per barrel, underscoring the severity of crude oil shortages originating in the Gulf region. These Middle Eastern oil prices were directly affected by export disruptions and therefore more effectively reflected marginal supply deficits than Atlantic-linked crude prices. Crucially, trade geography intensified this dynamic. Most of the crude transported via the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia—before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, about 11.2 million barrels of crude and 1.4 million barrels of refined products flowed through the strait to Asia each day. As a result, the direct physical shortage—and the surge in oil prices—was concentrated in Asian markets most dependent on Gulf crude. In fact, early signs of demand destruction had already emerged in Asia as product prices surged and spot crude became prohibitively expensive. JPMorgan noted that timing effects further reinforced this divergence. A typical voyage from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to Asia takes about 10 to 15 days, while cargoes bound for Europe via the Suez Canal require nearly 25 to 30 days, or 35 to 45 days if rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. Therefore, the impact of disrupted Gulf flows would hit Asian markets sooner and more severely, while Atlantic Basin benchmarks such as Brent and WTI would enjoy a longer buffer because of surplus inventory and slower supply adjustments. The US, with crude oil production exceeding 13 million barrels per day, would be affected the least. JPMorgan believed that, in this context, the apparent price stability shown by Brent and WTI should not be taken as evidence of adequate global supply. It reflected a temporary buffer created by regional surplus inventory, benchmark composition, and policy intervention. In fact, for refiners, especially those in Asia, the current crude oil shortage had already become a serious problem. About 60% of the region’s crude oil imports depended on the Middle East, and the difficulty of finding alternative, timely supplies was rapidly becoming acute. The pressure had already forced many countries into painful adjustments. Refiners across Asia had begun cutting run rates to conserve dwindling inventory. Some countries had banned exports of refined products, a defensive move that could further tighten the global market. As the crude oil shortage worsened, refined product prices surged. Asian jet fuel prices were approaching $200 a barrel, near the record high of about $220 reached earlier this month. The Crisis Could Spread Further Ultimately, this crisis was expected to extend beyond Asia. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that Europe accounted for about three-quarters of Middle Eastern jet fuel exports shipped through the Strait of Hormuz last year—about 379,000 barrels per day—but since the conflict began, no such cargoes had passed through the strait. Unsurprisingly, jet fuel barge prices in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp refining hub had surged to a record $190 a barrel, exceeding the previous peak set after the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022. The comparison with the Russia-Ukraine crisis may be even more compelling. Before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia supplied about 30% of Europe’s crude oil imports and one-third of its refined product imports. As traders feared Europe would lose supplies from one of the world’s largest oil producers, Brent crude rose to $130 a barrel after the Russia-Ukraine conflict—even though that worst-case scenario never fully materialized in the end. By contrast, according to Morgan Stanley, the physical disruption caused by the Iran conflict had already exceeded that level of concern by more than threefold. Even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen immediately, it would not bring immediate relief. According to the International Energy Agency, about 10 million barrels per day of production in the Middle East has been shut in since the conflict began. Restoring these flows will take weeks, if not months. To be sure, the oil market entered the Iran conflict in a relatively loose state, and the International Energy Agency had projected that global supply would exceed demand by about 3.7 million barrels per day. But that surplus has now been erased by the current turmoil. Last week, the International Energy Agency announced plans to release a record 400 million barrels from member countries' strategic petroleum reserves, which will help cushion the initial shock. But drawing down inventories cannot substitute for deliveries of new oil. In other words, the supply shock to the oil market is real and may persist. Once the Strait of Hormuz finally reopens, oil prices could initially plunge in a relief rebound, but given the harsh realities of the physical market, traders may need to think twice before betting that the return to normalcy promised by Trump is about to arrive…

According to a report released last Friday (May 23) by London-based maritime consultancy Drewry, port congestion at major hubs in Northern Europe is intensifying due to the tariff policies successively announced by US President Donald Trump, and this situation is expected to worsen. The report pointed out that container ships are facing increasing berthing delays at major European ports, including Antwerp, Rotterdam, Hamburg, and Bremerhaven, and are currently struggling to address the backlog of cargo. Data from the report showed that during the period from late March to mid-May, the waiting time for berthing at Germany's Bremerhaven increased by 77%; delays at Hamburg Port increased by 49%; and delays at Antwerp Port increased by 37%. During the same period, waiting times also extended at Rotterdam Port and Felixstowe Port in the UK. Several factors have contributed to the causes of port congestion include labor shortages, low river water levels, and the trade war initiated by the US. It is reported that a nationwide strike on May 20 at the Port of Antwerp-Bruges in Belgium further strained port operations. Prior to this, the Port of Antwerp was already facing multiple operational challenges, including a backlog of cargo from previous strikes, tight yard capacity, an imbalance between import and export cargo, and adjustments to berthing times due to alliance restructuring. At this juncture, Belgium announced another nationwide strike for May 20, which will result in the suspension of all shipping operations at the Port of Antwerp during the strike. Combined with the already strained situation, this is expected to pose additional challenges for container port departures and arrivals. In addition, low water levels on the Rhine River have limited barge capacity, particularly at the ports of Antwerp and Rotterdam, further exacerbating inland logistics strains. To make matters worse, the US's repeated tariff policies have caught exporters completely off guard, making it difficult for them to arrange orders, which has also led to non-seasonal fluctuations in shipping. For example, the previous mutual tariff concessions between China and the US led to a surge in cargo transportation between the two countries, with companies eager to transport goods during the "truce" period. Trump's latest flip-flop occurred over the weekend. Last Friday, US President Trump publicly denounced the EU for unfair trade practices and threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU early next month. Just two days later, Trump's attitude shifted again, as he agreed to extend the deadline for imposing the 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 and claimed to have had good communication with the EU. This policy uncertainty has also prompted shipping giants such as MSC Mediterranean Shipping to implement freight rate increases and peak season surcharges starting from June, particularly for cargo originating from Asia. "Additional policy uncertainty has inflicted heavy losses on global economic activity," said a research report from Oxford Economics on Saturday (May 24). The institute estimated that the countries most affected include Germany, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands, as these countries are highly dependent on exports to the US. In fact, the shipping bottleneck issue is not confined to Europe. According to a report by Drewry, similar situations have emerged in Shenzhen, Los Angeles, and New York, where the number of container ships waiting to berth has been increasing over the past three weeks. Given this situation, shipping companies are adjusting their routes and imposing congestion-related surcharges on exporters.

According to the inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on March 28, lead inventory decreased by 275 mt or 0.12%, to 231,200 mt. The Singapore warehouse saw the largest change, with a reduction of 250 mt, accounting for 90% of the total inventory decline. Additionally, the Antwerp warehouse decreased by 25 mt. Below is the distribution change of LME lead inventory in major warehouses worldwide: (unit: mt)

According to the inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) on March 27, lead inventory decreased by 525 mt to 231,475 mt. The Singapore warehouse contributed the main decline, with a destocking of 500 mt, while the Antwerp warehouse destocked 25 mt. The following shows the distribution changes of LME lead inventory in major global warehouses: (unit: mt)

【Shanghai Port's Automobile Throughput Reached 3.63 Million Vehicles in 2024】According to official information, in 2024, the automobile throughput of Shanghai Port reached 3.63 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 15%. It surpassed the Port of Antwerp-Bruges in Belgium to become the world's number one for the first time. The automobile throughput of Shanghai Port includes imports and exports, domestic trade, and bonded transshipment. Among the total throughput of 3.63 million vehicles throughout the year, the proportion of imports and exports exceeded 60%.

Overnight Market: Crude Oil Rises for Two Consecutive Days, Metals Show Mixed Performance, Alumina Up Over 1%, SHFE Gold "Soars"! Domestic market metals showed mixed performance, while overseas market metals generally fell. SHFE tin rose 0.76%, and SHFE zinc increased 0.34%. SHFE lead fell 0.51%. LME tin led the gains with a 1% increase, LME lead dropped 1.75%, and LME nickel declined 1.12%. LME copper decreased 0.78%, and the % change in other metals was relatively small. The main alumina contract rose 1.17%. In precious metals, COMEX gold surged to a record high of $3,065.2 per ounce on March 20 before pulling back...

The CEO of leading European aluminium roller and recycler Speira signed the Antwerp declaration for a European industrial deal on February 22, 2024.