[SMM Analysis] Steel billet sees notable YoY increase, while UAE’s decline hits a new low By product: Steel billet’s increase remains impressive, mainly because previous geopolitical conflicts caused periodic logistical bottlenecks and surging insurance premiums in major billet and slab production areas at some local Middle East EAF mills and BF-based plants. Overseas billet supply faced a vacuum period, directly pushing global buyers to launch massive inquiries with China. Purchasing sentiment strengthened notably in Southeast Asia in particular. According to SMM’s order-taking survey, exports are expected to stay high in the short term. It is also worth noting that Vietnam’s anti-dumping duties on China’s HRC will be implemented on April 17. As a result, total HRC exports to Vietnam in April increased compared with March, driven by a final rush to front-load shipments before the deadline. Exports are expected to pull back again in May. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs By country: Djibouti’s increase topped the list. Its product mix chart clearly shows that HRC (42%) and steel billet (30%) are the dominant products. As the “Gateway to East Africa” and a transshipment hub, Djibouti itself lacks large-scale consumption capacity. This surge is essentially because repeated Red Sea tensions caused large vessels to unload and transship directly in the Mediterranean or south of the Suez Canal, with Djibouti serving as a safe transit point serving East African inland infrastructure projects such as Ethiopia, or shipping onward via smaller vessels to North Africa. As a global shipping and trade settlement center, Singapore saw an increase of 290,000 mt, mainly due to centralized procurement and trade settlement by ASEAN and Chinese-invested construction projects in Singapore, which provided marginal support for China’s exports of bars, wire rods, and other infrastructure-related finished steel products. The UAE dropped 870,000 mt, and Saudi Arabia dropped 450,000 mt. This was primarily due to geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East, compounded by excessive stockpiling by major Middle Eastern buyers earlier to avoid logistics risks, pushing the Middle East market into a defensive cycle of destocking and slower purchasing. Data Source: SMM, General Administration of Customs Outlook: SMM’s April orders remain at a high level, and May exports are still expected to see increases. According to SMM’s steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April dipped slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it is also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, and orders for slabs destined for Southeast Asia saw a significant increase in April. Taking all factors into consideration—with the new export orders index re-entering expansion territory, the export price advantage still significant, and export order performance excellent—SMM expects that China’s steel exports in May will still see growth, with steel billet continuing to play a dominant role. Data Source: SMM Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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On May 28, 2026, the Department for Internal Market Protection of the Eurasian Economic Commission issued Notice No. 2026/483/AD28R2, and based on Commission Order No. 62 of May 25, 2026, decided to extend the validity period of the anti-dumping duty on aluminum strip originating in China and Azerbaijan until May 24, 2031. This decision shall enter into force 30 days after the date of its publication. This case involves products under Eurasian Economic Union tariff codes 7606119100, 7606122003, 7606122008, 7606129203, and 7606129208.

India’s Ministry of Steel has asked the Ministry of Finance to remove anti-dumping duties on imports of low-ash metallurgical coke, citing insufficient domestic supply and elevated prices. The ministry said current domestic availability is not enough to meet steel industry demand, creating clear pressure on raw material sourcing and production costs.

The European Parliament has officially approved a comprehensive package of new steel trade protection measures designed to shield the European steel sector from aggressive non-EU import surges. Welcomed by Eurofer and European steel producers, these updated regulations streamline the enforcement of anti-dumping duties, expand retrospective surveillance monitoring, and establish automated triggers to counter global excess capacity leakages into the single market. The policy update aims to insulate the region's domestic mills as they absorb the high financial burdens of transition capital expenditure. The market impact outlines a heavily restrictive trade environment for international steel exporters.

A Chinese energy and chemical firm plans to build a magnesium alloy project in Turkmenistan, leveraging local resources and Chinese technology. Meanwhile, Brazil sharply raised anti-dumping duties on Chinese magnesium ingots to $4.07/kg, effectively closing direct export channels.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.

The core logic of the South American steel market is that end-user demand drives everything. Consumption demand is the starting point, filled jointly by local production and imports; imports act as a regulating valve rather than a driving force.

The U.S. Department of Commerce has issued preliminary affirmative determinations in anti-dumping (AD) investigations regarding crystalline silicon PV cells and modules from India, Indonesia, and Laos. The preliminary dumping margins are set at 123.04% for India, 35.17% for Indonesia, and 22.46% for Laos. When combined with countervailing duties announced in February 2026, total preliminary duty exposure has reached approximately 234% for India, 121%–178% for Indonesia, and 103% for Laos. Importers are now required to post cash deposits immediately. Final determinations are expected between July and September 2026, with the U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) scheduled for a final injury determination on October 19, 2026, potentially leading to final duty orders on October 26, 2026.

[SMM Steel] Canada’s Canadian International Trade Tribunal has initiated an expiry review of anti-dumping duties on rebar imports from Algeria, Egypt, Indonesia, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. The review will assess whether removing existing measures could lead to continued or renewed dumping. Previous margins ranged from 3.3% to 23.1% (Vietnam at 10.5%). The Canada Border Services Agency is expected to issue its final determination by September 17, 2026, with a detailed statement to follow in October.

[SMM Steel] Mexico’s Ministry of Economy has issued a preliminary ruling converting anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese coated flat steel from ad valorem rates to fixed charges per kg, reflecting higher dumping margins. Duties now range from $0.0972/kg to $0.2241/kg, with Hoa Phat Steel Sheet Co., Ltd. at $0.1576/kg and Hoa Sen Group at $0.2241/kg. The decision is based on surrogate pricing using Brazil and remains subject to final review.