In summary, in H2 2026, China's prebaked anode export market will present the operating characteristics of "volume increase with stable prices, continued regional divergence, and overall mild growth."

The first-phase target has increased from 17 GW to 30 GW, but storage, grid readiness, financing and local-content rules will determine how quickly policy ambition becomes equipment demand.

On August 19, the winning bid result for Guangdong Energy Group’s 2026 second batch centralized tender procurement project for PV modules was announced. The winning enterprises were Hongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd. and Hengdian Group DMEGC Magnetics Co., Ltd. The unit price range was 0.654 yuan/W–0.73 yuan/W. This tender project was Guangdong Energy Group’s 2026 second batch centralized tender procurement for PV modules, covering two PV projects invested in and constructed by Guangdong Energy Group’s subordinate units and their subsidiaries. This module tender was divided into two sections, of which: Section 1 was tentatively 139 MWp, and Section 2 was tentatively 31 MWp. The final procurement quantity was subject to the actual needs of the projects.

According to an August 17 announcement by Develop Global, Develop has awarded the EPC contract for the design and construction of the Yitirrti processing plant (formerly known as Sulphur Springs) to leading engineering company GR Engineering Services Limited, with a contract value of A$275 million. The processing plant will have a designed capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year and will produce separate copper-silver and zinc concentrates. Funding for the Yitirrti project will come from a US$400 million debt facility recently provided by Trafigura to Develop, Develop's existing cash resources, and cash flow generated by Develop's Woodlawn and Pioneer Dome mines. Trafigura has signed offtake agreements to purchase the copper and zinc concentrates produced by the Yitirrti project. Construct

On August 20, Guodian Power Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Guodian Power") issued an announcement regarding the initiation of acquisition of certain assets of its controlling shareholder. The announcement stated that Guodian Power, as the integration platform for conventional energy generation business of China Energy Investment Corporation (hereinafter referred to as "China Energy Group"), plans to initiate the acquisition of equity interests in seven energy platform companies under the controlling shareholder. The total installed controlled capacity in operation is approximately 320,000 kW, and the total installed controlled capacity under construction/planned is 13.54 million kW. Guodian Power intends to make the acquisition in cash.

According to data released by CAAM in August, in July 2026, China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle production was only 67 units, a sharp YoY decline of 70.7%; sales were 138 units, down 51.4% YoY. From January to July, cumulative hydrogen vehicle production was 600 units and sales were 800 units, down 61.5% and 50.3% YoY respectively, with the overall market in a policy vacuum adjustment period after the conclusion of the first batch of demonstration city clusters. This week, China's alkaline electrolyzer market capacity remained at 43.77 GW, while the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW. This week, the 7.5 MW containerized alkaline hydrogen production equipment for Romania, manufactured by Peric Hydrogen Technologies Co., Ltd. (Handan) under the 718th Research Institute of China State Shipbuilding Corporation, has completed all production and acceptance and has been officially shipped. I. Project-Related Updates Ulanqab-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Hydrogen Pipeline (Third Change, Increased to 1,200 km): The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration officially issued the "Oil and Natural Gas Development '15th Five-Year Plan'", which for the first time proposed "integration of oil, gas, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and storage and transportation systems", and clearly published the core parameters of the Ulanqab-Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hydrogen pipeline in the key project table of the '15th Five-Year' oil and gas pipelines: total length of 1,200 km, pipe diameter of 457/610 mm, and designed transmission capacity of 500,000 mt/year. This is the third length change of the pipeline that can be traced — from the initial over 400 km, to 1,145 km, then to 1,132 km, and now finally set at 1,200 km. The project has been elevated to a national key project during the '15th Five-Year Plan', and is expected to accelerate into the substantive construction phase, becoming the starting point for building a national hydrogen storage and transportation backbone network. China Chemical Engineering Donghua Company (Shenneng Etuoke Banner Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Production Integrated Green Ammonia Project): The hydrogen production engineering of the Shenneng Etuoke Banner Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Production Integrated Green Ammonia Project, contracted by Donghua Company, reached an important period, with all 48 electrolyzers achieving stable full production and the entire process succeeding in one start-up, achieving "zero accidents and zero casualties". The 48 electrolyzers from five suppliers operated stably and synergistically on the same platform, verifying the full-cycle EPC management capability for hydrogen production from fluctuating power supply, marking that the hydrogen production station has comprehensive and stable hydrogen production capacity. Shanghai Electric (Taonan Phase II Project): The Taonan Green Hydrogen Coupled with Biomass Green Alcohol and Oil Integrated Project was officially launched. The project plans to produce 200,000 mt of green methanol and 10,000 mt of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually, adopting Shanghai Electric's new-generation green fuel system solution, pioneering an off-grid green direct-connection mode, relying on "wind + solar + storage + biomass" multi-source green electricity supply, and equipped with key core technologies such as electrolytic water hydrogen production, pure-oxygen pressurized fluidized bed biomass gasification 3.0, CO₂-rich syngas methanol synthesis, and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis for SAF. The green methanol previously produced in the Taonan Phase I project has completed two large-scale bunkering operations at Shanghai Yangshan Port, setting a global record for the largest single green methanol bunkering volume. Zhensheng Biotechnology (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd.: The biomass green hydrogen and bio-based materials industrialisation project of Zhensheng Biotechnology (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd. has been filed. The project is located in Dalate Banner Economic Development Zone, Ordos, with a total investment of 450 million yuan. It plans to start construction in July 2026 and be completed in July 2028. The project uses agricultural and forestry residues and other biomass as raw materials, adopts a slurry process to produce biomass activated carbon powder, and then produces green hydrogen through entrained-flow gasification and other processes. After completion, it will produce 65,000 mt of green hydrogen, 300,000 mt of biomass alloy slurry, 30,000 mt of new humic acid organic mineral matrix, and 36,000 mt of guaiacol humic acid multi-nutrient medicinal fertilizer per year. Goldwind Science&Technology (Hinggan League Wind Power Hydrogen Production Phase III Project): The Hinggan League Ecological Environment Bureau has approved the "Environmental Impact Report for Hinggan League Goldwind Science&Technology Wind Power Hydrogen Production (Phase III) Project". Located in Hinggan League Economic and Technological Development Zone, Phase III does not occupy additional land. It will construct six electrolytic hydrogen production workshops, one hydrogen compression workshop, and supporting auxiliary facilities. The core hydrogen production equipment consists of 80 sets of 2,000 Nm³/h electrolysers, with a total hydrogen production capacity of 160,000 Nm³/h. Liaoyuan Tianying Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (Liaoyuan Tianying Green Hydrogen Refuelling Station Has Been Granted Filing): The project is located in Liaoyuan High-tech Industrial Development Zone, Jilin Province, with a total investment of 16.831 million yuan. It plans to start construction in September 2026 and be completed in April 2027. Main construction contents: one set of 45 MPa hydrogen storage bottle group (hydrogen storage: 259 kg), one set of 20 MPa hydrogen storage bottle group (hydrogen storage: 538 kg), one 1.6 MPa hydrogen buffer tank (14 kg), with a total hydrogen storage capacity of approximately 1,195 kg; configuration of two 45 MPa hydrogen compressors, two 20 MPa hydrogen compressors, and two 35 MPa hydrogen refuelling dispensers. The project is indirectly 100% owned by China Tianying Inc. Inner Mongolia Huadian (Damao Banner 1 GW Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Production Integrated Project): Two sections of the Huadian Damao Banner 1 GW Wind and Solar Power Hydrogen Production Integrated Project have published bid result announcements, with a total amount of approximately 1.7 billion yuan. The first bid winner for Section 1 (PC construction general contracting) is China Huadian Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of approximately 501 million yuan; the first bid winner for Section 2 (383 MW wind and solar power PC + hydrogen production station + 220 kV step-down substation) is China Energy Engineering Group Tianjin Electric Power Construction Co., Ltd., with a bid price of approximately 1.205 billion yuan. Baotou Haoyu New Energy Co., Ltd. (Baotou Haoyu New Energy Co., Ltd. Airport Road (Branch Station) Oil-Gas-Electricity-Hydrogen Integrated Energy Supply Station Project Change Has Been Granted Filing): The project is located in Donghe District, Baotou, with a total investment of 40 million yuan and a total land area of approximately 3,000 m². It will build one oil-gas-electricity-hydrogen integrated energy supply station, equipped with CNG refuelling facilities (daily gas supply volume: 10,000 m³), petrol refuelling facilities, eight fast charging piles, and hydrogen refuelling facilities (daily refuelling capacity: 500 kg). The project will be implemented in two phases. Shanghai Electric, Together With SIPG and France’s CMA CGM (Green Methanol Bunkering at Yangshan Port) : Shanghai Electric, together with SIPG and France’s CMA CGM Group, successfully completed batch green methanol bunkering at Shanghai Yangshan Port, with a total bunkering volume of 8,000 mt, setting a new global record for the highest single green methanol bunkering volume. The green methanol bunkered this time was mainly supplied by Shanghai Electric’s Taonan Green Methanol Project, marking the first large-scale verification since the “Green Fuel Transport Corridor” jointly built by Shanghai, Jilin, and Liaoning (the “north methanol to south transport” link of production in Taonan, Jilin—transshipment at Dalian Port—bunkering at Shanghai Port) was put into operation. II. Policy Review 1. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the Notice on Agreeing to Carry Out Pilot Work on Comprehensive Hydrogen Energy Applications in Five City Clusters Including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, in principle approving five city clusters—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Greater Bay Area, Northeast (including eastern Inner Mongolia)—Yangtze River Delta, Xinjiang—Chengdu-Chongqing Twin-City Economic Circle, and the Yellow River “Ji”-shaped Bend—central China—to carry out pilot work on comprehensive hydrogen energy applications, with a pilot period of four years. The notice requires accelerating the implementation of four lists covering breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology and equipment, hydrogen energy projects in the industrial sector, promotion of fuel cell vehicles, and construction of hydrogen refueling stations, and emphasizes preventing local protectionism, “small but comprehensive” approaches, herd behavior, and low-level redundant construction. Compared with the first batch of four city-cluster demonstrations in 2020, the center of this round of policy has shifted from “single demonstrations” toward “comprehensive applications.” 2. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the “15th Five-Year” Plan for Oil and Natural Gas Development, which for the first time proposed “integrating oil and gas with hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol storage and transportation systems,” providing top-level design support for addressing storage and transportation bottlenecks in the hydrogen energy industry during the “15th Five-Year” period. The plan clearly states that it will “advance the construction of the Ulanqab—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei hydrogen transmission pipeline,” and discloses in the key oil and gas pipeline project list for the “15th Five-Year” period that the pipeline will have a total length of 1,200 km, a diameter of 457/0.61 mm, and a designed transmission capacity of 500,000 mt/year. 3. The People’s Government of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region issued the Notice on Amending Certain Contents of Document No. 15 of the Inner Mongolia Government Office, deleting provisions in the 2022 Opinions on Promoting High-Quality Development of the Hydrogen Energy Industry such as electricity prices for production by hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing enterprises being benchmarked to electricity prices for strategic emerging industries, and the eastern region participating in market-based trading with a 100% new energy allocation. Hydrogen energy equipment manufacturing enterprises will no longer enjoy preferential electricity price policies and will revert to the market-based trading mechanism for ordinary large industrial electricity consumption. This move is seen as an important signal of Inner Mongolia's hydrogen energy industry shifting from a "policy incubation period" to "market-oriented competition", and will have a direct impact on the electricity costs and investment estimates of existing and planned hydrogen equipment projects in the short term. 4. The People's Government of Banan District, Chongqing issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Comprehensive Transportation Development of Banan District, Chongqing (2026–2030)", proposing to build new hydrogen refueling stations along the Yuzhu Expressway, jointly create a "hydrogen corridor" cluster for the Western Land-Sea New Corridor; promote the use of green electricity and green electricity certificates in logistics hubs such as Chongqing Highway Logistics Base, explore the "PV+ESS+charging piles" model and green electricity hydrogen production; update and promote 400 pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks; explore the application of methanol, hydrogen fuel and other power vessels. 5. The Greater Khingan Mountains Prefecture Administrative Office issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Application of Methanol Vehicles in the Greater Khingan Mountains Prefecture (Draft for Comments)", proposing to accelerate the construction of vehicle methanol fuel refueling systems, support the construction of integrated comprehensive energy stations for charging, refueling, gas filling, hydrogen refueling, and methanol refueling; increase the promotion and application of methanol vehicles in taxi, ride-hailing and other fields; encourage government agencies at all levels to purchase methanol vehicles as official vehicles. 6. The Ecology and Environment Bureau of Hinggan League approved the "Environmental Impact Report of the Goldwind Science&Technology Wind Power Hydrogen Production (Phase III) Project in Hinggan League", agreeing to the construction of Goldwind's wind power hydrogen production phase III project with a capacity of 160,000 Nm³/h. 3. Enterprise Dynamics Dongfang Electric (Chengdu) Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Dongfang Electric announced that its board of directors approved the proposal for Dongfang Hydrogen Energy to carry out Series B financing, with the company and Dongfang Boiler simultaneously increasing capital. The financing amount is no more than 1.17 billion yuan. The company and Dongfang Boiler, together with external investors, will increase capital synchronously, maintaining a total shareholding ratio of 52.95%. This is the second central state-owned enterprise hydrogen energy subsidiary to launch large-scale financing in China, following SPIC's Guohydrogen Technology (which completed a 4.5 billion yuan Series B financing in December 2022 with a post-investment valuation of 13 billion yuan). It is regarded by the industry as a major positive signal of accelerated capitalization of central SOE hydrogen energy platforms. Dongfang Hydrogen Energy has built a full-chain business system covering hydrogen production, storage, refueling, hydrogen power generation, and fuel cells. As of 2025, it had put over 1,300 fuel cell vehicles into operation in 17 provinces and cities. SinoHytec: On August 15, it released an H-share announcement stating that for the six months ended June 30, 2026, the expected loss decreased by about 35%–45% compared to the same period in 2025. The main reasons are: deepening supply chain collaborative management and accelerating inventory turnover led to a YoY decrease in sales costs; continuing to reduce costs and increase efficiency resulted in a YoY decrease in operating expenses; the reversal of bad debt provisions recognized in prior years increased YoY; and the decline in shareholding ratios in certain associates led to a decrease in share of losses. Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd.: Huzhou Nanxun Xinshi Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 5 million yuan, covering the sales of station-use hydrogen refueling and storage facilities as well as new energy vehicle battery swapping facilities. Zhejiang Xunkai Energy Technology Group Co., Ltd. and Sinopec Sales Co., Ltd. hold 51% and 49% stakes, respectively. Previously, on April 14, Sinopec Sales had established the joint venture Shaxing Juneng Energy Co., Ltd. in Chongqing. Leveraging its network of over 30,000 gas stations across China, Sinopec is accelerating the transformation of traditional fuel stations into integrated "oil, hydrogen, electricity, and services" energy stations. Suzhou CPU Hydrogen Power Technology Co., Ltd.: The winning bid result of the Harbin Institute of Technology (Weihai) water electrolysis hydrogen production test prototype project was announced. Suzhou CPU Hydrogen Power won the bid at 1.02 million yuan, procuring one set of nuclear energy alkaline electrolysis water system prototype (covering a full suite of equipment including electrolyzer, power supply, gas-liquid separation, thermal management, and control). This will serve scientific research experiments related to nuclear-coupled electrolytic hydrogen production, with delivery required within 3 months after contract signing. Changzhou Xingran Technology Co., Ltd.: The winning bid result of the electrolyzer (PEM water electrolysis hydrogen production equipment) procurement project of Shaanxi Yanchang Petroleum Materials Group Xi'an Co., Ltd. was announced. Changzhou Xingran Technology won the bid at 1.7775 million yuan. CIMC Green Hydrogen: CIMC Green Hydrogen, together with H2Terminals and Bonney Energy, advances the implementation of Australia's hydrogen refueling network, deepening cross-border strategic hydrogen energy cooperation. China Marine Bunker (PetroChina) Co., Ltd.: China Marine Bunker signed an agreement with Jiaze New Energy to deepen cooperation in the green fuel industry; successfully completed the methanol bunkering operation for the first 325k VLOC vessel, opening a new track for methanol bunkering; and participated in the launch ceremony of Shanghai Electric's green hydrogen-coupled biomass green alcohol-oil integrated project. Solid-State Hydrogen Storage Goes Global (China Technology Export): China's solid-state hydrogen storage technology secured its first order in Southeast Asia, accelerating global export from technical verification to engineering implementation; Hydrosys hydrogen energy equipment moves from over 180 domestic stations to Oceania, ushering in a new chapter of hydrogen equipment going global. 4. Patent Applications 1. Sichuan Qingyan Energy Conservation Technology Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Hangneng Hydrogen-Alcohol Energy Innovation Research Institute, and Chengdu Ruilingke Information Technology Co., Ltd. (China): Published patent CN122561833A, "A Process Method for Hydrogen Production via Microwave-Induced Alcohol Reforming." Through microwave irradiation, metal oxide catalysts are activated to generate local high-temperature hot spots, combined with electromagnetic heating preheating, enabling alcohol reactants and water vapor to undergo steam reforming reaction in a microwave cavity reactor to produce hydrogen. This method achieves efficient hydrogen production from organic matter under mild conditions. 2. Guang dong Yuntao Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (China): Published patent CN122560794A, "An AI Control Method and System for Fuel Cell Tractor Based on Route Planning." By predicting the tractor's upcoming operating conditions and power demand through a predictive network, a fuel-lithium dual-energy characteristic model was established. Based on MPC predictive control, the optimal fuel cell power distribution ratio and expected hydrogen consumption rate were output, achieving dual-energy synergistic energy efficiency optimization. 3. Jiangsu Enfang Zhixiang Technology Co., Ltd. (China): Published patent CN122576250A, "An Air-Cooled Hydrogen Fuel Cell System." By utilizing the fan's wind pressure to convert reactive liquid water into water vapor, heat inside the stack was removed through wind speed and phase change principles. Water recycling was achieved via a hydrophilic humidification layer and siphon structure, resolving the conflict between heat dissipation and humidification in air-cooled stacks. 4. Sunshine Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (China): Granted patent CN224628684U, "Separation Device." By adopting a multi-stage wire mesh droplet capture and cyclone structure, the device adapted to gas-liquid separation conditions at different power levels under variable load hydrogen production, resulting in more thorough separation of hydrogen and water vapor. 5. Dalian Dichuang Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (China): Granted patent CN224647096U, "A High-Pressure Alkaline Electrolysis System." By arranging a horizontal electrolytic alkali balancing tank with a slider, the electrolytic alkali circulation loops on the hydrogen side and oxygen side were separated, preventing mutual mixing of hydrogen bubbles and oxygen bubbles while achieving pressure balance of the alkali on both sides.

[SMM Tin Morning Briefing: Night Session Consecutive Gains Stabilized at 428,000, Downstream Mainly Rigid Demand Price Fixing at 424,000-426,000]

SMM August 21 News: Metal Market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.01%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 1.1%. SHFE zinc rose 0.78%, and SHFE tin rose 0.75%. SHFE nickel fell 0.96%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.45%, while the most-traded primary aluminum contract fell 0.33%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 1.39%, iron ore edged up, and rebar rose 0.3%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 1.48%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.02%. Overnight in overseas markets, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper edged down, LME aluminum fell 1.62%. LME lead rose 0.72%. LME zinc rose 0.92%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel fell 1.08%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.66%, hitting an intraday high of $4,597.1/oz; COMEX silver rose 3.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.03%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. As of 7:16 a.m. on August 21, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Shanghai: By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation] The General Office of Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Urban Renewal and Housing Development in Shanghai." It proposes accelerating the renovation of urban villages, fully utilizing special loans for urban village renovation and local government special bonds, and increasing fiscal investment. It also aims to expedite relocation and land vacation, actively promote diversified resettlement such as housing vouchers. By the end of 2026, fully launch overall renovation projects of urban villages and fully complete remediation. By the end of 2027, fully complete preliminary renovation of overall renovation projects. Simultaneously, implement planning-based point removal. Accelerate comprehensive renovation of old public housing, through demolition and reconstruction, old city renovation, functional replacement, and other methods to renovate non-complete staff residential buildings, actively improve public housing rental rights collection and relocation update pathways. By the end of 2026, strive to fully complete the renovation of the remaining approximately 20,000 m² of small-beam thin-slab housing. By the end of 2030, strive to basically complete the renovation of non-complete staff residential buildings, achieve positive results in the renovation of non-complete lane, apartment, and garden houses, and promote the implementation of a batch of urban renewal projects that combine livelihood improvement and conservation development. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange further expands tradable product range for qualified foreign investors, newly opens low-sulfur fuel oil options] Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced that, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, starting from September 10, 2026 (i.e., opening at 9:00 a.m. that day), the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will further expand the tradable product range for Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (collectively referred to as Qualified Foreign Investors), and newly open the following commodity options: low-sulfur fuel oil options. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 98.87. According to the CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed keeping interest rates unchanged at September stands at 63.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 36.2%. For October, the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged is 51.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 6.8%. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh will deliver a speech at Jackson Hole at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time on August 28 (10:00 p.m. Beijing time on August 28). Fed Daly said that the rise in long-term yields is a global issue, weakening its signaling role for Fed policy, and he believes there is no risk to the Fed's credibility. Short-term yields indicate that the market understands the Fed's reaction function, and that Fed policy is in good shape, with no evidence seen of needing to raise rates early. He expects the inflation shock will gradually fade, so he is "very supportive" of the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged in July. However, one needs to be cautious about the cumulative effect of multiple inflation shocks, although he is looking for more concerning signs of inflation but has not seen them yet. Recent employment and inflation data have not changed the outlook, and he does not currently believe the labor market will drive inflation. The rise in bond yields has not sent a policy signal, and it is too early to discuss the Treasury issuance model. The Fed will find ways to achieve its policy objectives. The Fed will continue to fulfill its duties regardless of Treasury actions. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, on the issue of bond buybacks, said that a single buyback operation could exceed $4 billion in size (upper limit), partly as a signal. They want to show that yields do not reflect fundamentals. At the same time, they may announce a greater fiscal consolidation effort, and it is very likely they have already seen the peak in deficits. As for the debt figure, the $40 trillion debt number has no special significance. The market is a bit ahead of itself. If there are any changes in the balance sheet, the Treasury and the Fed will coordinate. To be clear, interest rates have nothing to do with the buyback decision. On the inflation outlook, Bessent said that market indicators point to lower readings ahead. On economic sanctions against Iran, Bessent said that a press conference will be held next Monday to discuss related actions. Citigroup's foreign exchange strategists have turned bearish on the short-term outlook for the US dollar, as the market is preparing for a more dovish Fed, the US midterm elections, and the Treasury's further expansion of Treasury buyback operations. The Citi strategist team, led by Daniel Tobon, said it has lowered its 3-month US dollar index forecast from 102.12 to 98.34. Citi previously noted that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent move to lower long-term borrowing costs by expanding the scale of repurchases of 10-year to 30-year US Treasury bonds could come at a cost to the US dollar. The US dollar index fell to its lowest level since May on Wednesday and then was basically flat around 98.9 on Thursday. The Citi team said they have maintained a "relatively neutral" view on the US dollar in recent months but have warned that risks to the US dollar could increase in the coming months. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today will see the release of UK public sector net borrowing in July, UK July seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales, France August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Germany August manufacturing PMI preliminary, Eurozone August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August manufacturing PMI preliminary, UK August services PMI preliminary, Canada June month-on-month retail sales, US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary, Global services PMI preliminary, Eurozone August consumer confidence index preliminary, China July total social electricity consumption YoY, and China's year-to-date July national installed power generation capacity. In addition, attention should be paid to: Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review for Q2 2026. On crude oil: Both crude oil futures extended their gains for a fourth consecutive trading session overnight, with WTI crude up 2.16% and Brent crude up 1.77%. Oil prices surged due to Trump's threat of sanctions on Iran. As mentioned by Wall Street Sights, citing CCTV, Bessent revealed that a press conference will be held on August 24, next Monday, to elaborate on the US action plan against Iran. Bessent hinted that increasing economic pressure could be an important means to avoid restarting large-scale military operations. CCTV quoted him as saying: "We have asymmetric information. I'm not sure why oil issues have become the focus. If we apply maximum economic pressure, it means that large-scale military conflict is less likely." UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said: "Tensions in the Middle East remain high, leaving room for further supply disruptions. The decline in Middle East crude exports is tightening the oil market." (Wall Street Sights) NYMEX New York crude oil September futures, affected by contract rollover, will conduct its last floor trading at 2:30 AM on August 21 and its last electronic trading at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the contract rollover announcements of the trading venues to control risks. In addition, the expiration time of US crude oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX time. Please be cautious.

August 20, 2026 Announcements from the U.S. Treasury have significantly impacted the precious metals market. The Treasury announced that, starting September 9, it would double its liquidity repurchases of long-term Treasury bonds (10 to 30 years) to at least $4 billion per operation. The market interpreted this move as a targeted maneuver to cap long-term financing costs. The result was a noticeable decline in long-term interest rates: The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries plummeted by as much as 10 basis points to 5.18 percent, while the U.S. dollar fell to a three-month low. Gold capitalized on this momentum to jump 4 percent (+$185.50) to $4,518.90 per ounce, with a daily high of $4,524.50. The other precious metals also rose sharply at times: Silver rose 5.34 percent to $66.57, palladium gained 4.18 percent, and platinum climbed 6.14 percent to $1,815. Industrial metals remained unfazed by the interest rate developments and edged lower. Gold Makes a Huge Leap Following Announcement from the U.S. Treasury Given the Federal Reserve’s stance, it is surprising that the markets reacted so eagerly to the Treasury Department’s intervention. The Fed minutes from the July meeting, released at the same time, painted a significantly more restrictive picture: Several policymakers considered further interest rate hikes necessary given persistent inflationary pressures. Traders, however, focused on the dovish signals from the Treasury; and the probability of a rate hike in September, as priced in by the market, fell from over 70 percent at the end of July to about 36 percent. From a technical perspective, the focus for gold is now shifting to the $4,540 range (50-week average), where market observers such as James Dima (StoneX) are calling for a sustained weekly closing price. Above that, the next target lies at the 200-day moving average of $4,625. According to Saxo strategist Ole Hansen, a sustained break above $4,500 could pave the way toward $5,000 by year-end, provided support at $4,200 holds. The end of the week promises to be exciting: In addition to technical confirmation regarding the gold price, a deadline is approaching in the U.S.-Canada tariff dispute, where potential tariff reductions on steel and aluminum are on the table. The very following week, the commodity markets’ attention will then turn to the first Jackson Hole speech by the new Fed Chairman, Kevin Warsh. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/goldpreis-springt-ueber-4-500-dollar-steht-die-5-000er-rallye-bevor

[Vietnam] Vietnam’s steel market remained largely stable, with construction steel prices holding at around 531 USD/tonne EXW and HRC at approximately 515–522 USD/tonne CFR Ho Chi Minh City. Buyers and sellers are largely taking a wait-and-see approach ahead of the next price announcements from major mills, expected next week before the September 2 Independence Day holiday, with the new offers likely to provide a clearer signal for near-term price direction. Domestic project-linked demand remains supportive as major infrastructure projects move toward the September 2 inauguration, while the market awaits the next wave of infrastructure investment in Hanoi. Meanwhile, discussions between steel industry participants and the Ministry of Industry and Trade regarding Taiwan’s anti-dumping investigation have intensified, with the government urging affected companies to submit company profiles and relevant information to the Taiwanese authorities and actively cooperate with the investigation.