According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in April 2025 (30 days) increased by 2.6% YoY and decreased by 2.9% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters increased MoM in April, mainly due to the completion of maintenance and full-capacity operation of individual aluminum smelters in Sichuan. In addition, SMM learned that an aluminum enterprise initiated the first batch of a 200,000 mt/year relocation project to Yunnan during the month.

Brief comment: During the period, a certain aluminum enterprise in Shandong adjusted the benchmark tender price for prebaked anode in April 2025, up 139 yuan/mt MoM. At the same time, another large prebaked anode sales company in China also raised its sales price for April, up 173 yuan/mt MoM. Notably, in terms of raw materials, both petroleum coke and coal tar pitch market conditions weakened. According to SMM calculations, as of April 7, the cost of prebaked anode in China was about 5,365 yuan/mt, down about 11% from March 6. With the increase in prebaked anode prices in April and the reduction in cost-side pressure, assuming January as the production cycle, SMM calculations show that the theoretical profit situation of prebaked anode this month improved significantly, with the loss amount down about 282 yuan/mt MoM, although it is still in the loss range, it has shown significant improvement. Currently, the number of enterprises undergoing maintenance in refineries is high, and there is still an expectation of supply-side reduction for petroleum coke. Although downstream purchasing sentiment improved after entering April, overall, just-in-time procurement remains the mainstay, and downstream demand provides weak support for the continued rise in petroleum coke prices. Based on this, it is expected that petroleum coke prices will mainly fluctuate in April. In view of this, SMM expects prebaked anode prices to remain stable next month. Subsequently, it is necessary to continue to closely monitor the operating dynamics of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises.

In March 2025, prebaked anode production saw significant growth, benefiting from improved operating conditions in some regions and additional production days compared to February. Currently, prebaked anode enterprises strictly organize production based on orders, and industry supply remains ample. On the demand side, domestic aluminum operating capacity is steadily climbing, and overseas orders in 2025 are highly optimistic, indicating strong demand for prebaked anode in both domestic and overseas markets. In the short term, prebaked anode enterprises are operating steadily, with prices continuing to rise and downstream demand steadily increasing. SMM predicts that prebaked anode enterprises' operating rates are likely to remain high and stable in April. Moving forward, it is essential to closely monitor the operating conditions of prebaked anode and downstream aluminum enterprises to promptly grasp industry dynamics and market trends.

According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters rose MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some of the production resumed in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum in domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's liquid aluminum proportion increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream rod plants in Guangxi cut production recently, leading to a decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum at some local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.

SMM Data: Aluminum Resumption Evident, Proportion of Liquid Aluminum Rebounds to Normal Levels SMM March 31: According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminum production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7% YoY and 11.2% MoM. The operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters rose MoM, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminum smelters, with some resumptions in February already yielding output. The proportion of liquid aluminum at domestic aluminum smelters rebounded to normal levels in March, with the industry's proportion of liquid aluminum increasing by 3.2 percentage points MoM and 0.15 percentage points YoY to 74.2%. Additionally, due to losses, downstream rod plants in Guangxi recently cut production, leading to a decline in the proportion of liquid aluminum at some local smelters by month-end. Based on SMM's liquid aluminum proportion data, domestic aluminum casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1% YoY to around 958,000 mt.

[SMM Analysis: Prebaked Anode Prices Continued to Rise During the Period, Cost Side Surged, Pressuring Enterprises' Production] During the period, an aluminum enterprise in Shandong adjusted its prebaked anode bidding benchmark price for February 2025, up 85 yuan/mt MoM. Meanwhile, another major domestic prebaked anode sales company also raised its February sales price, up 151 yuan/mt MoM. This price adjustment was driven by a significant increase in raw material petroleum coke prices and a gradual rise in coal tar pitch prices, leading to a continuous increase in prebaked anode costs. According to SMM calculations, as of February 7, the cost of prebaked anodes in China had reached approximately 4,956 yuan/mt. Although prebaked anode prices were raised in February, the rising raw material prices have gradually increased production pressure on enterprises, resulting in an unoptimistic profitability outlook. After the Chinese New Year holiday, the petroleum coke market experienced a new round of price increases driven by sellers and buyers. SMM expects that under such circumstances, prebaked anode prices may see a significant increase next month.

[SMM Analysis: January 2025 Prebaked Anode Production Continues to Decline, Rising Production Costs Expected to Drive Price Increase] In January 2025, prebaked anode production continued to decline, mainly due to environmental protection factors in north China and production cuts caused by equipment maintenance at some enterprises. Although supply decreased during the month, prebaked anode enterprises produced according to orders, and overall industry supply remained relatively sufficient. Demand side, as domestic aluminum smelters resumed operating capacity in February, demand for prebaked anodes slightly increased.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: SHFE Aluminum Surges, Alumina Prices Fluctuate Downward] Fundamentals side, several aluminum smelters in Sichuan have gradually resumed production recently, leading to renewed pressure on the aluminum supply side. The average spot price of alumina in February is expected to decline significantly, further weakening cost side support. Demand side, it is still the off-season, but with the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum processing enterprises are gradually resuming operations, and downstream weekly operating rates have rebounded significantly, indicating an improvement in consumption. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust. Key focus in the coming days will be on U.S. economic data, post-holiday inventory performance, and the pace of downstream resumption.

[SMM Aluminum Futures Brief Review: SHFE Aluminum Surges, Alumina Prices Fluctuate Downward] Fundamentals side, several aluminum smelters in Sichuan have gradually resumed production recently, leading to renewed pressure on the aluminum supply side. The average spot price of alumina in February is expected to drop significantly, further weakening cost side support. Demand side, it is still the off-season, but with the end of the Chinese New Year holiday, aluminum processing enterprises are gradually resuming operations, and downstream weekly operating rates have rebounded significantly, indicating an improvement in consumption. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with adjustments as the main trend. Key focus in the coming days will be on U.S. economic data, post-holiday inventory performance, and the pace of downstream resumption.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,325.5/mt, then shifted lower, fluctuating rangebound in early trading. It continued to decline during the session, bottoming at $9,258.5/mt, before slightly rebounding towards the close, ultimately settling at $9,289/mt, up 0.2%.