[SMM Analysis]Aluminum Processing PMI Rebounded Sharply to 66 in March, Expected to Pull Back in April

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (June 9-12, 2025) are as follows......

[May's Unwrought Aluminum and Aluminum Semis Exports] According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis reached 547,000 mt in May 2025, up 5.60% MoM and down 3.19% YoY. From January to May, cumulative exports totaled 2.431 million mt, down 5.1% YoY.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Mixed Sentiments, Aluminum Prices Expected to Fluctuate] Macro side, the phone call between China and the US may lead to a de-escalation of the trade war, while the rebound in China's manufacturing PMI and improvement in export indicators in May provide demand support, indicating that the resilience of the domestic economy remains. Fundamentals side, the operating capacity of domestic primary aluminum remains stable, and the reduction in casting ingot volume has temporarily maintained the destocking trend of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. Cost side, the impact of the Guinea mine incident on alumina prices has eased somewhat, and the real-time cost of primary aluminum has declined slightly MoM. Demand side, it is facing dual pressures from domestic seasonal weakness and trade uncertainties. In the short term, the operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises will be under pressure, and the off-season atmosphere is becoming more pronounced. Overall, the current low inventory and the expectation of a higher proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. However, the off-season pressure on the demand side limits the upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, and aluminum prices are expected to remain volatile and range-bound in the short term.

According to customs statistics, in the first five months of 2025, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this total, exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, up 7.2%, while imports reached 7.27 trillion yuan, down 3.8%. In May, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7%. Of this total, exports amounted to 2.28 trillion yuan, up 6.3%, while imports reached 1.53 trillion yuan, down 2.1%. The main characteristics of China's import and export in the first five months are as follows: 1. Growth in import and export of Ordinary Trade and processing trade In the first five months, China's import and export of Ordinary Trade reached 11.51 trillion yuan, up 0.8%, accounting for 64.2% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports amounted to 7.04 trillion yuan, up 7%, while imports reached 4.47 trillion yuan, down 7.8%. During the same period, the import and export of processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan, up 6.2%, accounting for 17.9%. Of this total, exports amounted to 1.99 trillion yuan, up 4.5%, while imports reached 1.22 trillion yuan, up 9.3%. In addition, China's import and export through bonded logistics amounted to 2.54 trillion yuan, up 5.9%. Of this total, exports amounted to 1.05 trillion yuan, up 15.8%, while imports reached 1.49 trillion yuan, down 0.2%. 2. Growth in import and export with ASEAN and the EU In the first five months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and ASEAN reaching 3.02 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports to ASEAN amounted to 1.9 trillion yuan, up 13.5%, while imports from ASEAN reached 1.12 trillion yuan, up 2.3%. The EU was China's second-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the EU reaching 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.9%, accounting for 12.8%. Of this total, exports to the EU amounted to 1.57 trillion yuan, up 7.7%, while imports from the EU reached 728.33 billion yuan, down 6.1%. The US was China's third-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the US reaching 1.72 trillion yuan, down 8.1%, accounting for 9.6%. Of this total, exports to the US amounted to 1.27 trillion yuan, down 8.7%, while imports from the US reached 447.51 billion yuan, down 6.3%. During the same period, China's total import and export with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 9.24 trillion yuan, up 4.2%. Of this total, exports amounted to 5.34 trillion yuan, up 10.4%, while imports reached 3.9 trillion yuan, down 3.2%. 3. Growth in import and export of private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises In the first five months, the import and export of private enterprises reached 10.25 trillion yuan, up 7%, accounting for 57.1% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Of this total, exports amounted to RMB 6.97 trillion, up 8%, accounting for 65.4% of China's total export value. Imports reached RMB 3.28 trillion, up 4.9%, accounting for 45.1% of China's total import value. During the same period, the import and export volume of foreign-invested enterprises was RMB 5.21 trillion, up 2.3%, accounting for 29% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports were RMB 2.88 trillion, up 6%, and imports were RMB 2.33 trillion, down 1.9%. The import and export volume of state-owned enterprises was RMB 2.44 trillion, down 12.7%, accounting for 13.6% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports were RMB 799.4 billion, up 4.3%, and imports were RMB 1.64 trillion, down 19.1%. IV. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 60% of exports, with growth in exports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits, and automobiles. In the first five months, China exported RMB 6.4 trillion worth of mechanical and electrical products, up 9.3%, accounting for 60% of China's total export value. Of this, automatic data processing equipment and its parts were worth RMB 575.23 billion, up 3.9%; integrated circuits were worth RMB 526.4 billion, up 18.9%; and automobiles were worth RMB 351.37 billion, up 6.6%. During the same period, exports of labor-intensive products were RMB 1.66 trillion, down 1.5%, accounting for 15.6%. Of this, textiles were worth RMB 420.14 billion, up 3.7%. Exports of agricultural products were RMB 296.09 billion, up 4.7%. V. Import prices of major bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and coal fell, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased. In the first five months, China imported 486 million mt of iron ore, down 5.2%, with an average import price (the same hereinafter) of RMB 707.2 per mt, down 16.4%; 230 million mt of crude oil, up 0.3%, at RMB 3,864.3 per mt, down 10.6%; 189 million mt of coal, down 7.9%, at RMB 559 per mt, down 22.5%; 49.053 million mt of natural gas, down 9.5%, at RMB 3,274 per mt, down 6.8%; 37.108 million mt of soybeans, down 0.7%, at RMB 3,233.9 per mt, down 13.9%; and 15.98 million mt of refined oil products, down 26.8%, at RMB 4,323.2 per mt, down 0.1%. In addition, China imported 11.698 million mt of primary-shaped plastics, down 2.3%, at RMB 10,600 per mt, down 0.8%; and 2.169 million mt of unwrought copper and copper semis, down 6.7%, at RMB 69,400 per mt, up 6.6%. During the same period, imports of mechanical and electrical products were RMB 2.83 trillion, up 6%. SMM has compiled the import and export situation of some products in the metal industry based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in May 2025 5,864.6 mt, down 5.7% YoY from May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 248,270 mt, up 2.3% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, steel exports totaled 10.578 million mt, up 9.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 484,690 mt, up 8.9% YoY compared to January-May 2024 . In May 2025, exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis totaled 5.47 million mt, down 3.2% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative exports reached 2.43 million mt, down 5.1% YoY compared to January-May 2024. Imports: In May 2025, imports of iron ore and concentrates totaled 98.131 million mt, down 3.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 486.409 million mt, down 5.2% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of copper ore and concentrates totaled 2.395 million mt, up 5.8% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 12.406 million mt, up 7.4% YoY compared to January-May 2024 . In May 2025, imports of coal and lignite totaled 36.04 million mt, down 17.7% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 188.671 million mt, down 7.9 % YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of rare earths reached 11,700.3 mt, down 14.9% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 48,998.0 mt, down 21.7% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, steel imports reached 481,000 mt, down 24.5% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 2.553 million mt, down 16.1% YoY compared to January-May 2024. In May 2025, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis totaled 4.27 million mt, down 16.9% YoY compared to May 2024. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports reached 2.169 million mt, down 6.7% YoY compared to January-May 2024. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database Related readings: General Administration of Customs: China's import and export of goods trade increased by 2.5% in the first five months, with exports up 6.3% YoY in May

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis SMM News on June 4: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,005 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,110 yuan/mt, a low of 19,975 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,075 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. Trading volume was 97,500 lots, and open interest was 190,000 lots. SMM Commentary: Although the increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is bearish, China's direct aluminum semis exports to the US have been restricted by high tariffs for years, so the actual incremental impact is limited. It mainly affects overall market sentiment, suppressing global aluminum trade liquidity, particularly impacting countries highly dependent on US exports, and exacerbating regional supply surplus pressure in the short term. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remains stable. Notably, some aluminum smelters in north China have increased the proportion of liquid aluminum used in alloying, reducing casting ingot volumes and affecting the arrival of goods in major consumption areas. On the demand side, some downstream sectors are showing expectations of an off-season slowdown. Demand for PV aluminum is decreasing, and automotive aluminum demand is expected to weaken in mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remains lukewarm, but currently benefits from orders from State Grid, keeping the operating rate of aluminum wire and cable high. Overall, short-term market sentiment may suppress aluminum prices due to tariff impacts. Meanwhile, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has declined more than expected, supporting aluminum prices and spot premiums. Although some sectors are showing expectations of a weakening off-season, the overall decline is better than expected, and demand resilience remains. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with solid support below. If macro pressures do not escalate significantly, prices may show mild strength. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,036 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,086 yuan/mt, a low of 3,010 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,063 yuan/mt, up 0.89%. Trading volume was 316,000 lots, and open interest was 300,000 lots. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, alumina's weekly operating capacity continued to rebound, reaching 86.67 million mt/year as of last Thursday, up MoM, further alleviating spot supply pressure and slowing the rise in spot prices. Recent overseas alumina transactions have been sluggish, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have shifted from losses to profits, and the domestic alumina import window is gradually opening. In the short term, with the gradual resumption of production from some alumina maintenance and production cuts, alumina supply pressure is expected to gradually ease. The average profit of the alumina industry has entered a profitable state, and the market has strong expectations for alumina production resumptions. Alumina futures prices have taken the lead in pulling back, which may drive spot prices weaker. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,566.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,557.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

According to customs data, China's aluminum extrusion (HS codes 76041010，76041090，76042100，76042910，76042990) exports reached 70,800 mt in April 2025, down 18.39% YoY and slightly down 1.47% MoM.

On May 10-11, 2025, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and State Department Trade Representative Jamieson Greer held a new round of tariff negotiations with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Geneva. Both sides agreed to reduce EO 14257 "reciprocal tariffs" to a baseline of 10% within 90 days and suspend further increases. Additionally, the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. Since the reciprocal tariffs did not cover aluminum and aluminum semis already covered by Section 232, the above agreement did not change the current tariffs on aluminum semis exported to the US. The Section 301 tariffs imposed during Trump's first term targeting China, the Section 232 tariffs in 2025 to protect the US steel and aluminum industry, and the 20% "fentanyl tariff" (Executive Order 14195 and 14228) imposed on all goods of Chinese (including Hong Kong) origin under the pretext of "combating the synthetic drug supply chain" were not addressed in this negotiation. So, how many layers of tariffs are currently imposed on aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US? What are the final tariff rates for each product? MFN Most Favored Nation tariff —the "first threshold" universally applicable to all WTO members; Section 301 tax surcharge on China —only applicable to aluminum semis of Chinese origin, with rates of 25% or 7.5% depending on the list; Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs —a 25% tariff imposed by the US on all imported aluminum and aluminum semis starting from March 12, 2025; "Fentanyl" tariff —a 20% tariff on all goods of Chinese origin; AD/CVD trade remedy measures —anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing (CVD) deposits imposed on specific categories such as extrusions, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foil. Current effective anti-dumping product summary: *AD/CVD items are subject to the latest announcements by the US Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission. Typical product quick reference: In 2024, aluminum semis directly exported from China to the US accounted for only 4.08% of total exports, so the tariff war had a relatively small impact on direct aluminum semis exports. However, some end-user finished products not under the 76 code, such as home appliances, electronics, and auto parts, if not listed under Section 301 or Section 232, will be subject to the 10% tariff agreed upon in the US-China negotiations and the 20% fentanyl tariff, and the 24% suspension for 90 days may stimulate a rush to export, thereby boosting aluminum demand in the short term. SMM will focus on the recent downstream production and order situation.

According to customs statistics, in the first four months of 2025, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 14.14 trillion yuan, up 2.4% YoY (the same hereinafter). Of this total, exports amounted to 8.39 trillion yuan, up 7.5%, while imports reached 5.75 trillion yuan, down 4.2%. In April, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 3.84 trillion yuan, up 5.6%. Of this total, exports amounted to 2.27 trillion yuan, up 9.3%, while imports reached 1.57 trillion yuan, up 0.8%. Key features of China's import and export in the first four months: 1. Growth in import and export of ordinary trade and processing trade In the first four months, China's import and export of ordinary trade reached 9.05 trillion yuan, up 0.6%, accounting for 64% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports amounted to 5.53 trillion yuan, up 7.3%, while imports reached 3.52 trillion yuan, down 8.4%. During the same period, import and export of processing trade reached 2.54 trillion yuan, up 6.6%, accounting for 18%. Of this total, exports amounted to 1.58 trillion yuan, up 5.5%, while imports reached 960.57 billion yuan, up 8.4%. In addition, China's import and export through bonded logistics reached 2.04 trillion yuan, up 7%. Of this total, exports amounted to 847.48 billion yuan, up 17.7%, while imports reached 1.19 trillion yuan, up 0.6%. 2. Growth in import and export with ASEAN and the EU In the first four months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and ASEAN reaching 2.38 trillion yuan, up 9.2%, accounting for 16.8% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this total, exports to ASEAN amounted to 1.48 trillion yuan, up 12.6%, while imports from ASEAN reached 895.17 billion yuan, up 4%. The EU was China's second-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the EU reaching 1.78 trillion yuan, up 1.1%, accounting for 12.6%. Of this total, exports to the EU amounted to 1.21 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, while imports from the EU reached 563.59 billion yuan, down 8.1%. The US was China's third-largest trading partner, with the total trade value between China and the US reaching 1.44 trillion yuan, down 2.1%, accounting for 10.2%. Of this total, exports to the US amounted to 1.07 trillion yuan, down 1.5%, while imports from the US reached 369.95 billion yuan, down 3.7%. During the same period, China's total import and export with countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative reached 7.25 trillion yuan, up 3.9%. Of this total, exports amounted to 4.15 trillion yuan, up 9.6%, while imports reached 3.1 trillion yuan, down 2.8%. 3. Increase in the proportion of import and export by private enterprises In the first four months, import and export by private enterprises reached 8.05 trillion yuan, up 6.8%, accounting for 56.9% of China's total foreign trade value, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared with the same period last year.Of this total, exports amounted to RMB 5.47 trillion, up 8.1%, accounting for 65.1% of China's total export value. Imports reached RMB 2.58 trillion, up 4.2%, accounting for 45% of China's total import value. During the same period, the import and export volume of foreign-invested enterprises stood at RMB 4.1 trillion, up 1.9%, accounting for 29% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports amounted to RMB 2.28 trillion, up 6.1%, while imports reached RMB 1.82 trillion, down 3%. The import and export volume of state-owned enterprises was RMB 1.96 trillion, down 11.3%, accounting for 13.9% of China's total foreign trade value. Of this, exports amounted to RMB 640.6 billion, up 7.3%, while imports reached RMB 1.32 trillion, down 18.2%. IV. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for over 60% of exports, with growth in exports of automatic data processing equipment and its parts, integrated circuits, and automobiles. In the first four months, China exported mechanical and electrical products worth RMB 5.04 trillion, up 9.5%, accounting for 60.1% of China's total export value. Of this, automatic data processing equipment and its parts accounted for RMB 458.71 billion, up 5.6%; integrated circuits accounted for RMB 405.15 billion, up 14.7%; and automobiles accounted for RMB 264.98 billion, up 4%. During the same period, exports of labor-intensive products amounted to RMB 1.3 trillion, down 1.6%, accounting for 15.4%. Of this, textiles accounted for RMB 329.17 billion, up 4.9%. Exports of agricultural products reached RMB 235.57 billion, up 6.1%. V. Import prices of major bulk commodities such as iron ore, crude oil, and coal fell, while the import value of mechanical and electrical products increased. In the first four months, China imported 388 million mt of iron ore, down 5.5%, with an average import price (the same hereinafter) of RMB 710.4 per mt, down 17.8%; 183 million mt of crude oil, up 0.5%, at RMB 3,936.7 per mt, down 8%; 153 million mt of coal, down 5.3%, at RMB 569.6 per mt, down 22.2%; 38.994 million mt of natural gas, down 9.2%, at RMB 3,318.3 per mt, down 6.1%; 23.19 million mt of soybeans, down 14.6%, at RMB 3,283.2 per mt, down 15%; and 12.922 million mt of refined oil products, down 25.6%, at RMB 4,381.8 per mt, up 1.6%. In addition, China imported 9.525 million mt of primary plastics, down 1.1%, at RMB 10,500 per mt, down 0.5%; and 1.742 million mt of unwrought copper and copper semis, down 3.9%, at RMB 69,000 per mt, up 8.5%. During the same period, the import value of mechanical and electrical products reached RMB 2.23 trillion, up 5.7%. Furthermore, according to CCTV News, Lv Daliang, Director of the Department of Statistics and Analysis at the General Administration of Customs, stated that since the beginning of this year, various regions and departments have worked together to effectively respond to external shocks, promoting the sustained rebound and improvement of China's economy, with foreign trade maintaining a steady growth momentum.The growth rate of imports and exports in April accelerated by 4.3 percentage points compared to Q1, with export growth expanding and imports shifting from decline to increase, demonstrating strong resilience. SMM compiled the import and export situation of some metal industry products based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, as detailed below: Exports: In April 2025, rare earth exports reached 4,784.8 mt, a 4.8% increase YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative exports amounted to 18,962.3 mt, a 5.1% increase YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, steel exports reached 10.462 million mt, a 13.4% increase YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative exports amounted to 3,789.1 mt, an 8.2% increase YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports reached 518,000 mt , a 0.4% decrease YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative exports amounted to 1.883 million mt, a 5.7% decrease YoY compared to January-April 2024. Imports: In April 2025, iron ore and concentrate imports reached 103.138 million mt, a 1.3% increase YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports amounted to 388.360 million mt, a 5.5% decrease YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports reached 29.24 million mt, a 24.5% increase YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports amounted to 100.31 million mt, a 7.8% increase YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, coal and lignite imports reached 37.825 million mt, a 16.4% decrease YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports amounted to 152.671 million mt, a 5.3% decrease YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, rare earth imports reached 12,622.7 mt, a 4% decrease YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports amounted to 37,301.8 mt, a 23.6% decrease YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, steel imports reached 5.22 million mt, a 20.7% decrease YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports reached 207.2 million mt, down 13.9% YoY compared to January-April 2024. In April 2025, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis were 438,000 mt, unchanged YoY compared to April 2024. From January to April 2025, cumulative imports were 1.742 million mt, down 3.9% YoY compared to January-April 2024. 》Click to view the SMM Metal Industry Chain Database