[Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Delayed, Short-Term Weakness in Aluminum Prices Hard to Break] In China, the proportion of liquid aluminum continued to rise, and warehouse withdrawals of aluminum ingots hit a four-year high in the past week. The further acceleration of the destocking pace has been the biggest highlight recently, but the absolute inventory level remains in a high range. Recently, with the continued narrowing of the geopolitical risk premium coupled with expectations for new project startups outside China, macro headwinds still dominate. LME aluminum is under significant pressure in the short term, and domestic aluminum prices are expected to follow LME aluminum and remain in the doldrums.

[Geopolitical Risk Premium Continues to Narrow, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] Progress has been made in indirect technical talks between the US and Iran, with discussions on fund repatriation and Strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continues to narrow. The dispute over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persists, and uncertainty remains over the resumption of Strait navigation. The Federal Reserve's hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices fell in and outside China. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to stay in the doldrums.

[Strait of Hormuz Control Dispute Continues; Bearish Factors Dominate Short-Term Aluminum Prices] The Strait of Hormuz control dispute continues, and the resumption of navigation in the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, and non-ferrous metal prices were suppressed. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] SMM ADC12 price rose 100 yuan/mt from the previous day to 23,950 yuan/mt, with the market center moving further upward. The core driver behind the price increase remained the cost side, as aluminum scrap prices stayed high, tight supply of compliant raw materials and persistent tax invoice cost pressure kept enterprise production costs elevated. Although downstream demand was mediocre, with limited incremental orders, and downstream procurement was still mainly based on essential restocking, enterprises were more consistent in their willingness to hold prices firm amid strong cost support. In the short term, with no clear improvement in demand, the momentum for a substantial further rise in ADC12 price is limited, but cost support remains relatively strong

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] SMM ADC12 price rose 100 yuan/mt from the previous day to 23,950 yuan/mt, with the market center moving further upward. The core driver behind the price increase remained the cost side, as aluminum scrap prices stayed high, tight supply of compliant raw materials and persistent tax invoice cost pressure kept enterprise production costs elevated. Although downstream demand was mediocre, with limited incremental orders, and downstream procurement was still mainly based on essential restocking, enterprises were more consistent in their willingness to hold prices firm amid strong cost support.

[Macro Headwinds Dominate Futures; SHFE and LME Aluminum Both Remain in the Doldrums] The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, weighing on nonferrous metal prices. The Middle East geopolitical situation showed some volatility but no signs of deterioration. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominate, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Continued attention should be paid to production resumptions in the Middle East, overseas aluminum ingot inventory trends, and macro news fluctuations.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Night Session Decline Slows Down, Continuous Destocking and Firm Aluminum Scrap Keep Market Cautiously Wait-and-See] On Thursday, mainstream enterprises' quotes for ADC12 were generally lowered by 100–200 yuan/mt, and the SMM ADC12 price fell by 150 yuan/mt from the previous day to 23,850 yuan/mt. Amid the continuous price decline, downstream clients' purchasing enthusiasm did not significantly improve, with just-in-time procurement remaining dominant, wait-and-see sentiment relatively strong, and restocking willingness insufficient.

This week, the operating rate at China's leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises came in at 63%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. Weighed down by the deepening seasonal off-season across the sector, downstream purchase willingness was broadly subdued, and operating rates across most segments remained under pressure. Primary aluminum alloy held steady at 59.4%, as enterprises mainly focused on executing existing long-term contracts, with no release of new spot orders.

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Review] Today, the SMM ADC12 price fell by 150 yuan/mt from the previous day to 23,850 yuan/mt. Amid the continuous price decline, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream clients did not pick up significantly. Downstream players still mainly made just-in-time procurement, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment and insufficient restocking willingness. Meanwhile, aluminum scrap prices showed relative resilience. In particular, the supply of compliant raw materials remained tight. The price decline further squeezed the profits of aluminum scrap suppliers, leading to an intensified sentiment of holding back from selling and affecting raw material circulation to some extent.

[US Fed Hawkish Expectations and Easing Middle East Tensions Pressure Aluminum Prices] The acceleration of strait shipping resumption, combined with hawkish expectations from the US Fed, is causing the geopolitical premium to narrow at an accelerated pace, and LME aluminum will be under pressure in the short term. China side, the destocking pace is maintained, but the absolute inventory remains at high levels. SHFE aluminum, without new macro bullish factors, follows LME aluminum under pressure. It is expected that aluminum prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term.