According to Brijendra Pratap Singh, Chairman and Managing Director of Nalco, aluminum prices could rise to around $3,000 per tonne in the next fiscal year, driven by increased demand and supply constraints. Singh stated that the global aluminum market is expected to experience supply shortages in 2026 and 2027 due to continued demand growth in several sectors, including electric vehicles, construction, and power. On the supply side, Singh pointed out that potential shutdowns at aluminum smelters in Mozambique, Iceland, and Australia, coupled with China's 45 million-ton capacity ceiling, pose a threat to aluminum supply. Due to this supply-demand imbalance, Nalco has raised its 2026 aluminum price forecast from $2,670 per tonne to $2,900-3,000 per tonne. In contrast, Singh stated that the outlook for alumina remains weak. Alumina prices have fallen to around $310-320 per ton and are expected to remain in the $320-330 per ton range next year. He attributed this to oversupply caused by new refining capacity in Indonesia and India, as well as decreased demand following smelter shutdowns. “There is an oversupply of alumina in the market,” he said, adding that this has put downward pressure on prices.

On Thursday, November 20, Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecast for December 2025 to $10,610 per mt from $10,385 per mt, reflecting the upward trend in Q4. The bank maintained its price range of $10,000-11,000 per mt for 2026-2027, citing expectations of a slight surplus in the market. However, it predicts that a supply deficit will emerge in the latter part of this decade, driven by intensifying resource constraints and accelerating demand in key sectors, which will push prices higher. Goldman Sachs stated that its long-term copper price forecast for 2035 is $15,000 per mt, higher than the market consensus and forward contract prices (around $10,390 per mt), as the bank assumes that long-stalled mining projects will fail to commence production. Goldman Sachs remains bearish on aluminum prices over the next 12 months, expecting prices to fall to $2,350 per mt by Q4 2026, as new supply will push the market into a surplus. The bank noted that although aluminum prices are expected to rebound thereafter, they are unlikely to return to current levels until the early part of the next decade. "We have extended our long-term aluminum price forecast, expecting prices to fluctuate within a range of $2,900-3,400 between 2030 and 2035," the bank said. (Wenhua Composite)

Commerzbank recently released its latest price forecasts for base metals and energy products, reflecting a reassessment of the outlook for some key commodities. Regarding base metals, the bank significantly raised its price forecasts for copper, aluminum, and zinc. It is most optimistic about copper prices, raising its year-end target price from $9,600 per ton to $10,500 per ton. Meanwhile, its aluminum price forecast was raised to $2,900 per ton (from $2,600), and its zinc price forecast was raised to $3,000 per ton (from $2,800). However, the bank is relatively pessimistic about nickel, lowering its price forecast from $16,000 per ton to $15,000 per ton.