[SMM Aluminum Express News] Rio Tinto reported Q1 2026 aluminum output of 835,000 tons (+1% YoY), supported by stronger alumina production despite lower bauxite due to weather disruptions in Australia, including Tropical Cyclone Narelle impacts. The company also highlighted tighter global aluminum supply as the Middle East conflict removes ex-China output, contributing to a more pronounced market deficit outlook for 2026. Operationally, alumina strengthened after full ownership of Queensland Alumina Limited, while Kitimat ramped up in Canada, NZAS remained stable, and the AP60 project achieved first hot metal.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, the total primary aluminum output overseas in April 2026 fell 10.2% year-on-year, while the average daily overseas output dropped 10.0% month-on-month, mainly as the impact of production cuts at Middle Eastern aluminum smelters became more evident. During the period, despite accelerated production resumptions at overseas primary aluminum smelters amid high prices, the overall incremental volume was far lower than the scale of production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a notable year-on-year and month-on-month decline in overseas primary aluminum output in April. Per Alcoa’s Q1 earnings report, the company announced on April 8, 2026 that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain had been safely completed. According to Vedanta’s production report, its primary aluminum output in the 2026 fiscal year (Q2 2025 to Q1 2026) hit a record high of 2.456 million tons, up 1% year-on-year, mainly driven by improved operational efficiency. As per an official announcement from Century Aluminum, idle capacity at its Mt. Holly aluminum smelter in South Carolina has commenced restarting, with the first batch of primary aluminum production underway. It is expected that the resumed capacity will reach full operational status by the end of June, involving a total capacity of approximately 50,000 tons. In addition, the second production line at its primary aluminum smelter in Iceland has resumed production several months ahead of schedule. Staff are energizing the first batch of electrolytic cells for the second line and will accelerate the restart of remaining cells, targeting a near-full production level by the end of July. Looking ahead to May 2026, production resumptions at smelters in the US and Iceland, together with the ramp-up of new capacity in Indonesia, are expected to push average daily output higher month-on-month, though year-on-year output is projected to remain in sharp negative growth. Overall, given the unresolved situation in the Middle East, overseas primary aluminum output is expected to stay in sustained year-on-year negative growth in the short term. Market participants shall continue to monitor subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum smelters in the Middle East as well as global aluminum inventory trends.

[Conflict Impact] The outbreak of the Middle East conflict on February 28, 2026, significantly disrupted global aluminum market dynamics, driving increased volatility in aluminum prices. Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged alongside escalating tensions, rising from an Official Price of $3,156.5/mt on February 27 to a peak of $3,519.5/mt in early March. Prices later retreated to the $3,200–3,300/mt range in late March, as market sentiment gradually stabilized. On March 28, in response to attacks on Iranian industrial zones, Iran reportedly targeted major regional aluminum producers including Aluminum Bahrain and Emirates Global Aluminum, while Qatar Aluminum declared force majeure. These developments constrained primary aluminum output in the Middle East, tightening market liquidity and increasing supply uncertainty. As a result of supply disruptions, global aluminum availability declined, particularly impacting regions outside China in Asia. Entering April, LME aluminum prices rebounded to $3,400–3,500/mt, breaking above $3,600/mt in mid-April and fluctuating within the $3,500–3,600/mt range. [Shipping Disruptions] The conflict initially disrupted transportation systems across the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz being most severely affected. Key aluminum exporters—including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran, and Kuwait—faced significant logistical constraints. Exports that traditionally passed through the Strait were heavily restricted, forcing market participants to adopt alternative logistics routes, including land transport to Red Sea ports. These adjustments significantly increased freight costs and extended delivery lead times. In April, the escalation of conflict into the Red Sea region further limited alternative shipping routes. Most Europe–Asia vessels opted to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope, driving both freight costs and transit times higher. According to SMM market research, cargo delivery delays reached 3–5 weeks, while container freight costs surged by as much as 60–70%. [Primary Aluminum and Processing] Reduced Middle Eastern exports tightened primary aluminum supply across major Asian consuming countries, particularly Japan, Thailand, India, and South Korea. In 2024, the Middle East exported 6.408 million mt of primary aluminum and key aluminum products, with these four countries accounting for approximately 20.8% (1.331 million mt). In 2025, exports declined to 6.071 million mt, with imports from these countries totaling approximately 1.215 million mt (~20%). Demand for primary aluminum alloys and billets (notably 6xxx series) remained strong. SMM data shows that following the outbreak of conflict, processing fees for 6063 billets in Southeast Asia rose from $200–250/mt to $250–300/mt, peaking at $300–310/mt. Market feedback indicates a recovery in demand for 6xxx billets, with both domestic and export transactions in Malaysia and Thailand increasing significantly in April. Downstream purchasing sentiment improved, offsetting weaker market conditions observed in January–February. Demand for primary foundry alloys also strengthened. Elevated aluminum prices, reduced Middle Eastern supply, and growth in downstream sectors such as automotive (particularly in Thailand) drove increased enquiries for alloys including A356, AlSi10MnMg, and AlSi10FeMg. Notably, interest in low-carbon aluminum has also increased, reflecting rising alignment with international decarbonization policies such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Against a backdrop of tightening primary supply, importing semi-finished aluminum products from alternative regions may become an increasingly viable option. [Secondary Aluminum] Beyond primary production, the Middle East has also been a significant supplier of aluminum scrap and secondary alloys, serving as an emerging recycling and processing hub prior to the conflict. India and South Korea are key importers of Middle Eastern scrap. In 2024, the region exported 628,000 mt of aluminum scrap, with India and South Korea accounting for 62.6% and 13.5%, respectively. In 2025, total exports rose to 766,000 mt, with imports reaching 489,000 mt (India) and 101,000 mt (South Korea). Amid the conflict, buyers from Japan and South Korea diversified sourcing toward Southeast Asia, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, boosting demand for ADC12 secondary aluminum alloy. This shift supported both Southeast Asian FOB prices and Japan CIF prices. In April, continued conflict escalation drove additional demand from India, with SMM data indicating several thousand tonnes of incremental enquiries and transactions in Southeast Asia. SMM began tracking ADC12 FOB prices in Thailand and Malaysia in March 2026. Prices rose from $3,000/mt on March 2 to $3,365/mt by April 27, marking an increase of $365/mt. Market activity remained robust, with strong exports to Japan, South Korea, and India, alongside steady shipments to China, Singapore, and other regions. Some producers have reportedly secured orders through late June to July. On the raw materials side, rising LME aluminum prices pushed both imported and domestic scrap prices higher. In Thailand, aluminum cable scrap reached THB 115,000–120,000/mt ($3,560–3,710/mt) in April, significantly increasing blending costs for billet producers. As scrap prices climbed, some billet producers reduced scrap usage and increased reliance on primary aluminum. Meanwhile, higher prices for Tense scrap led to reduced trading volumes, prompting ADC12 producers to substitute alternative scrap types, including higher-copper materials, to optimize cost structures. Reduced scrap supply from the Middle East also intensified competition, particularly as India increased procurement from alternative markets, tightening supply and driving prices higher in Southeast Asia. [Outlook] The Middle East conflict has fundamentally reshaped aluminum trade flows across Asia and globally, increasing pressure on Southeast Asia’s aluminum processing sector. If the conflict persists, global aluminum trade is likely to become more regionalized, with tighter raw material availability in Asia and stronger internal circulation in Western markets. China may emerge as a key balancing supplier, as widening domestic-international price spreads could open export arbitrage opportunities for semi-finished aluminum products and secondary alloys. However, Southeast Asia may face mounting pressure from raw material shortages and intensified competition, particularly from India. At the same time, tightening low-carbon policies and Western supply chain reshoring may further challenge regional competitiveness. Conversely, a de-escalation of the conflict and normalization of logistics routes could ease supply constraints, potentially placing downward pressure on aluminum product and secondary alloy prices, gradually returning the market toward pre-conflict conditions. [Notes] The “18 Middle Eastern countries” referenced in this report include: Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain Levant region: Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Palestine Other key regional countries: Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt, Cyprus, Libya, Yemen Primary aluminium and related key aluminium products include the following HS codes: 7601 – Unwrought aluminium 7604 – Aluminium bars, rods and profiles 7605 – Aluminium wire 7606 – Aluminium plates, sheets and strip, thickness > 0.2 mm 7607 – Aluminium foil 7608 – Aluminium tubes and pipes

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Century Aluminum has restarted the second potline at its Norðurál smelter in Grundartangi, Iceland, ahead of schedule, with full capacity expected by end-July. The potline accounts for about two-thirds of total capacity, with operations resuming after transformer repairs following an unexpected failure. Permanent replacements are set for installation in autumn. The restart strengthens Century’s primary aluminum output, alongside recent expansion at Mt. Holly, to meet market demand.

According to Vedanta's production report, Vedanta's annual alumina production in FY2026 (Q2 2025–Q1 2026) rose 48% YoY to 2.916 million mt, while aluminum production hit a record high of 2.456 million mt, up 1% YoY, primarily driven by improved operational efficiency.

Vedanta reported record aluminum output of 2.456 Mt in FY26, up 1% YoY, while alumina rose 48% to 2.916 Mt. With refinery capacity at 4 Mt/year, the growth reflects strong expansion. It adds some supply, but overall balance still depends on global disruptions.

The global aluminum market is currently characterized by a distinct divergence between Chinese and overseas markets. Overseas markets have performed strongly amid supply-side disruptions, while the domestic market has also strengthened due to similar supply disturbances but remained relatively weak compared with the LME. Details on supply, demand, trade and market structure are as follows: I. Overseas Aluminum Market: Prominent Supply Tightness and Sustained Pressure on Inventories The core contradiction in overseas aluminum markets lies in supply contraction and low inventory levels, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, further intensifying supply tightness. In terms of LME inventory data, current inventories remain on a continuous downward trend, greatly weakening their supportive role in the market. Historically and recently, LME cancelled warrants peaked at 178,000 tonnes earlier, accounting for 39% of total inventory. As a result, the effectively available LME inventory has dropped to its lowest level since May 2025, further highlighting tight overseas supply. Supply contraction has widened the market deficit, with production cuts at two key projects—EGA and Alba—having a particularly significant impact.On March 28, EGA’s Al Taweelah smelter in the UAE and Alba’s plant in Bahrain were attacked, causing equipment damage and sharply raising risks of capacity disruptions. This came on top of earlier disruptions: March 15: Alba reduced output at three production lines due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz; March 12: Qatar’s Qatalum smelter suspended 40% of capacity due to natural gas supply cuts. Overseas primary aluminum supply deficits are expected to continue widening. Meanwhile, high energy costs in Europe have also reduced local semi-fabricated aluminum output, further tightening supply. Supply tightness has directly driven a sharp rise in overseas spot premiums. Amid supply concerns from escalating Middle East geopolitical conflicts, the Q2 MJP premium rose by approximately USD 156.5/t to USD 351.5/t. Specifically, major regional premiums rose markedly at end-March: CIF South Korea: from USD 168/t (early March) to USD 292/t; CIF Thailand: from USD 183/t to USD 317/t; European Duty Unpaid: from USD 345/t to USD 400/t; US Midwest DDP: from 103.75 cents/lb to 105.5 cents/lb. This fully reflects that expectations of tight primary aluminum supply have enabled sellers to push up quotations. Downstream demand and purchasing patterns vary significantly across regions: South Korea: Phase-wise restocking completed; weak downstream restocking sentiment, limited demand support. Southeast Asia: Dominated by term contract execution with limited spot restocking; insufficient incremental buying momentum. Europe: Rising supply shortage concerns amid production cuts in Qatar and Bahrain; downstream restocking underway, relatively strong demand. United States: Low inventories entering a restocking cycle, providing moderate market support. II. Chinese Aluminum Market: High Inventory Pressure, Weak and Constrained Demand In contrast to strong overseas markets, the domestic aluminum market has strengthened amid supply disruptions but underperformed relative to the LME, characterized by high inventories and constrained demand. High domestic aluminum prices have continued to suppress downstream purchasing. Current buying is mainly order-based rigid demand, with low willingness for active restocking, providing limited upward support. Domestic inventory pressure has not eased effectively: primary aluminum inventories remain elevated, and inventory destocking has progressed slower than expected, likely prolonging the digestion period.High inventories and high prices form dual constraints. Although the domestic market has upward momentum, it is weaker than overseas. Domestic spot premiums are expected to remain under pressure and further widen in the short term.

SMM News, March 31: According to SMM statistics, total aluminum production outside China in March 2026 edged up 0.2% YoY, while daily average production fell 2.7% MoM, mainly due to widespread production cuts and shutdowns at aluminum plants in Mozambique and the Middle East during March. According to an announcement on Hydro's official website, Qatalum smelter in Qatar initiated an orderly shutdown on March 3, and announced on March 12 that it had decided to stop further production cuts and maintain a 60% operating rate. On March 16, according to South32's official website, Mozal Aluminium (Mozal) was confirmed to have entered maintenance status on March 15, involving 580,000 mt of capacity. On March 15, according to an announcement on Alba's official website, Alba initiated the shutdown of Lines 1, 2, and 3 under controlled and safe conditions, involving capacity equivalent to 19% of its total capacity of 1.623 million mt, or about 310,000 mt; around March 25, the market reported that its Line 4 might also see production cuts or shutdowns, involving 320,000 mt of capacity; on March 28, according to an announcement on Alba's official website, its aluminum plant facilities were hit on March 28, the extent of equipment damage was still being assessed, and it would maintain operational flexibility and employee safety. On March 28, according to EGA's official website, facilities at its Al Taweelah aluminum plant suffered severe damage, with the extent of the damage still under assessment. The market expects large-scale production cuts and shutdowns there, and the plant has aluminum capacity of about 1.55 million mt. Looking ahead to April 2026 , although the Mount Holly aluminum plant in the US and the Grundartangi aluminum plant in Iceland are expected to begin resuming production, production resumptions at Spain's San Ciprián aluminum plant continue to advance, and operating capacity at new aluminum projects in Indonesia and Angola is expected to continue ramping up, given the large scale of production cuts and shutdowns at aluminum plants in the Middle East and Mozambique in March and the further emergence of their impact, aluminum production outside China in April is expected to decline significantly both YoY and MoM. Overall, if the situation in the Middle East proves difficult to ease, monthly aluminum production is expected to shift into sustained negative YoY growth from Q2 to Q4 2026. Continued attention should be paid to subsequent announcements from relevant aluminum plants in the Middle East and trends in global aluminum inventory.

Rusal's financial report showed that, affected by its capacity optimization plan, full-year 2025 primary aluminum production fell 1.9% YoY to 3.918 million mt (2024: 3.992 million mt). Alumina production, meanwhile, rose 6.7% YoY to 6.858 million mt. In addition, benefiting from the Guinea expansion project and increased equity interests in refineries in China and India, bauxite production increased 16.2% YoY to 18.453 million mt.