May 14, London Metal Exchange (LME): Total inventory 344,000 mt, change -2,500 mt; registered warrants 286,725 mt, change 0 mt; cancelled warrants 57,275 mt, change +2,350 mt.

SMM, May 15: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall price center moving significantly lower compared to the previous trading day. Today, market purchasing sentiment remained weak. Affected by the sharp decline in aluminum prices, some sellers showed strong sentiment to hold prices firm. Mainstream spot cargo quotations in the market ranged from SMMA00 minus 10 yuan/mt to minus 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.03 MoM. Today, aluminum futures prices pulled back significantly from the previous day's morning session. Combined with the fact that it was Friday, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market saw a recovery in stockpiling sentiment, and the overall trading atmosphere improved. However, suppliers' shipment sentiment edged down compared to the previous day. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.83, unchanged MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.26, unchanged MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.35 MoM today, with destocking originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.

[Macro Tailwinds and Inventory Pressure Coexist, Limiting Upside Room for Aluminum Prices] Current macro tailwinds are being released in a concentrated manner, the global rigid supply gap for aluminum has been confirmed, and China’s aluminum ingot inventory has entered initial destocking. Multiple positive factors are providing support for aluminum prices. However, inventory at high levels in China remains the core factor suppressing a sharp price surge. In addition, spot market trading has been relatively weak, and expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes this year have been heating up, further limiting upside room for aluminum prices. Going forward, attention should be paid to whether China’s aluminum ingot inventory can maintain sustained destocking, thereby easing the pressure that inventory at high levels exerts on aluminum prices.

May 13, London Metal Exchange (LME): Total inventory 346,500 mt, change -2,250 mt; registered warrants 291,725 mt, change -10,000 mt; cancelled warrants 54,775 mt, change +7,450 mt.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Positive Factors Still Provide Support, but Upside Room for Aluminum Prices Remains Limited]

SMM May 14: During the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher than the previous trading day. Today, market procurement sentiment remained weak, while seller shipments sentiment rose due to higher aluminum prices. Mainstream spot quotes ranged from SMMA00 minus 10 yuan/mt to minus 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3 (up 0.04 MoM), and the procurement sentiment index was 2.8 (down 0.06 MoM). Aluminum prices rose significantly during last night's night session, and the central China market's initial premiums were low today. Although prices continued to decline after the opening, transaction price premiums remained low and showed a continued downward trend, affected by insufficient invoice quotas and high aluminum prices suppressing downstream procurement sentiment. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 20 to 50 yuan discount to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.83 (up 0.01 MoM), and the procurement sentiment index was 2.26 (down 0.02 MoM). Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.15 MoM today, with destocking originating from Guangdong and Wuxi.

[Ex-China Supply Disruptions Combined with Macro Recovery Strengthen Upside Momentum for Aluminum Prices] The risk of ex-China aluminum supply disruptions has not yet subsided, and the ex-China aluminum ingot supply-demand gap will continue to provide support for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing has restricted aluminum ingot spot liquidity, and a weakening spot market will limit upside room for domestic aluminum prices. However, since April, China's export orders have remained positive, and combined with recent macro tailwinds, a turning point in China's social inventory is expected to emerge, boosting upside momentum for aluminum prices.

May 12, London Metal Exchange (LME): Total inventory 348,750 mt, change -2,250 mt; registered warrants 301,725 mt, change -30,000 mt; cancelled warrants 47,025 mt, change +27,750 mt.

SMM May 13: SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward in the morning session, with the overall price center rising compared to the previous trading day. Some sellers held prices firm today. End-users mainly made just-in-time procurement, and traders' buying sentiment improved. The mainstream spot cargo quotations ranged from SMM A00 aluminum average price to SMM A00 minus 10 yuan/mt. The shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.96 today, up 0.10 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.86, up 0.06 MoM. The overall trading atmosphere in the central China market remained sluggish today. Aluminum prices rebounded slightly, and buying sentiment was basically flat compared to the previous day. Insufficient invoice quotas and limited orders continued to suppress buying sentiment of downstream processing enterprises. The actual transaction price range in the central China market remained relatively stable, hovering between parity and a discount of 10 yuan to the central China price. The shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.82 today, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.28, flat MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas fell 0.45 MoM today, with all three regions showing a destocking trend.

[Macro Policy and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers: Aluminum Prices Move Sideways] The risk of supply disruptions to aluminum outside China has not yet subsided, and there remains a supply gap in ex-China aluminum, with the strong LME market transmitting to China and providing support for aluminum prices. However, the continuation of inventory buildup exceeding expectations in China will weigh on domestic aluminum prices. Meanwhile, tightened invoicing regulations may lead to structural tightness in spot cargo, and the weakening spot market further limits the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. Close attention should be paid to the potential turning point in China's social inventory, which could drive a rebound and rise in aluminum prices.