SMM June 12: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with its overall price center higher than the previous trading day. Selling sentiment in the market increased today, but buying interest among downstream users was suppressed by the higher aluminum prices. However, destocking accelerated, and premium expectations narrowed, supporting firm quotes and transaction prices. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 90–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. The selling sentiment index in east China was 2.96, up 0.07 from the previous day, and the buying sentiment index was 2.83, down 0.04. SHFE aluminum futures showed a rebound uptrend today. Despite the weekend stockpiling cycle, downstream processing enterprises in central China had ample earlier stockpiles, leading to low buying interest. Suppliers tended to sell heavily while the discount had not yet widened, causing a price collapse and decline. Overall market trading sentiment turned weaker compared with the previous two days. The actual transaction price range in central China was around a discount of 130–160 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 07 contract. The selling sentiment index in central China was 2.91, up 0.01 from the previous day, while the buying sentiment index was 2.21, down 0.01. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventories in major consumption areas fell by 1.4 from the previous day, with all three regions showing destocking.

[U.S.-Iran Conflict Sees Dramatic Reversal, ECB Rate Hike Weighs on Metal Prices] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also create a bullish driver for aluminum prices; this Thursday, the destocking pace of China's aluminum ingot social inventory noticeably accelerated, effectively alleviating the previous high inventory pressure. However, China's high inventory pressure remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly undergo volatile adjustments.

SMM, June 11: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher compared to the previous trading day. Today, market shipment sentiment was somewhat raised, and seller quotes moved up. However, affected by the higher aluminum price, downstream purchasing sentiment was suppressed. The mainstream spot aluminum transaction price in the market was at a discount of 90-120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the east China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.89, up 0.03 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 286, down 0.04 MoM. The aluminum futures price experienced a slight correction. Today, the shipment sentiment in the central China market further improved compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at low premiums, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm was not strong. Market quotes trended lower, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before the opening to around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the contract. The mainstream transaction range was at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the central China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.90, up 0.01 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 2.22, flat MoM. Inventory side, today, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas was down 1.95 MoM, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

SMM News, June 11: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell: SHFE copper fell 1.4%, SHFE lead rose 0.68%, and SHFE tin fell 1.08%. SHFE nickel fell 1.49%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.33%. SHFE zinc fell 2.48%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.46%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.19%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 3.17%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.81%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 4.19%. Ferrous metals mostly fell: iron ore fell 0.46%, rebar fell 0.28%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.3%, and stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.41%, while the most-traded coke contract rose 1.27%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals were down nearly across the board. LME copper fell 0.19%, LME aluminum fell 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.48%. LME zinc fell 0.45%, LME tin fell 0.77%, and LME nickel fell 0.23%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 1.16%, hitting an intraday low of $4,046.2/oz; COMEX silver fell 2.04%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 4.58%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 3.89%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.77%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.7%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract was flat at 3,977.5 points. As of 11:43 on June 11, midday moves in selected futures: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract today: high-quality copper was quoted at 240 yuan/mt, up 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 180 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,625 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,550 yuan/mt, down 585 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory continued to decline today, marking the eighth consecutive drop... Macro Front China: [China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance: In May, China’s power and energy storage battery sales rose 47.4% YoY] The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance released monthly power battery information for May 2026. In May, total production of power and energy storage batteries in China was 191.7 Gwh, up 4.2% MoM and up 55.2% YoY. In May, China's sales of power batteries and ESS batteries totaled 182.2 GWh, up 11.0% MoM and 47.4% YoY. Of these, power battery sales were 127.0 GWh, accounting for 69.7% of the total, up 16.6% MoM and 45.2% YoY; ESS battery sales were 55.2 GWh, representing 30.3% of the total, down 0.1% MoM but up 52.7% YoY. [Changchun: Building a World-Class Vehicle Manufacturer Group, Supporting FAW and Huawei to Deepen Strategic Cooperation] The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Automobile Industry Development in Changchun (Draft for Comment) has been released for public comment. It mentions providing full support for vehicle enterprises to transform and upgrade, with the aim of building a world-class vehicle manufacturer group. It focuses on supporting vehicle enterprises to develop new energy and energy-efficient vehicles and to establish a clear brand system. It also supports carriers to strengthen strategic cooperation with domestic cross-industry enterprises in the field of intelligent connected vehicles. In particular, it fully supports China FAW in integrating global innovation resources and deepening strategic technological cooperation with Leap Motor, Huawei, DJI, and other enterprises in areas such as new energy vehicles and intelligent connected vehicles. The plan emphasizes the industrialization application and iterative upgrade of key technologies such as all-solid-state batteries, the 'Hongqi No.1' multi-domain fusion chip, the Sinan Intelligent Driving large model, and the Lingxi Cockpit large model. It supports China FAW in deepening strategic cooperation with leading technology enterprises such as Huawei, Baidu, and iFLYTEK, as well as internet platforms, to jointly establish innovation laboratories, focusing on tackling key technologies such as end-cloud integrated intelligent architecture, Level 3 and above autonomous driving, and multimodal interaction, thereby creating a nationally influential source of intelligent connected vehicle innovation. (From WSJ APP) The PBOC conducted 188.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. As for the US dollar: As of 11:43, the US dollar index fell 0.09% to 99.96. The US Labor Department said on Wednesday that the CPI rose 4.2% YoY in May, accelerating from 3.8% in the previous month. This marked the highest year-on-year increase since April 2023, indicating that high energy costs due to the conflict with Iran continue to drive up price pressures. Since the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran in late February, Americans have been feeling the pain of rising oil prices. Rising energy costs have weakened consumer confidence. Currently, there is little sign that oil tankers can obtain sustained permission to transit the Strait of Hormuz, meaning that supply pressure in the global energy market is expected to persist. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Fed holding interest rates steady through June was 98.4%, with a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut seen at just 1.6%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the current rate through July stood at 89.1%, a cumulative 25-bp hike at 9.5%, and a cumulative 25-bp cut at 1.5%. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, described the latest CPI report as a “tale of two cities.” While the data was highly consistent with expectations, the overall trend remained negative. This did not alter the policy path for the Fed’s next meeting. However, the prevailing consensus is that the Fed will hold steady, and Fed funds futures are currently pricing in only one hike. In summary, after significant profit-taking pressure on semiconductor stocks and the broader tech sector, these factors were likely instrumental in helping the market recover some lost ground in early trading today. A CICC research note argued that US inflation remains dominated by structural factors, such as energy shocks, with cyclical inflation not yet evident. However, it warned of the risks of a rebound in aggregate demand driven by AI capex expansion and improving employment. On monetary policy, the firm maintained its baseline call of no cuts and no hikes by the Fed this year. It expects the Fed’s stance to stay hawkish, noting that Fed Chair Warsh’s top priority upon taking office would be to rebuild policy credibility, likely demonstrating resolve by signaling stronger expectations for balance sheet reduction rather than hinting at rate hikes. A scenario of “balance sheet reduction first, delayed rate cuts” could not be ruled out, posing sustained pressure on assets that conflict with Warsh’s philosophy, those reliant on liquidity, and those benefiting from dollar over-issuance. (Jin10 Data App) On the Data Front: Releases due today include the Eurozone’s ECB Deposit Facility Rate and ECB Main Refinancing Rate as of June 11, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US PPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures for May. Additionally, attention will be on the Ministry of Commerce’s second regular press briefing for June; the ECB’s interest rate decision; and the monetary policy press conference held by ECB President Christine Lagarde. In Crude Oil: As of 11:43, oil prices were up across both benchmarks, with WTI gaining 1.94% and Brent crude rising 1.65%. Prices climbed amid escalating military conflict between the US and Iran. The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy enterprises to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of a previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under that agreement. In March this year, after the US and Israel launched a war against Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the global oil market. At that time, the US SPR inventory stood at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises that borrowed crude oil had to return an equal amount and pay a premium of up to 24% in the form of additional crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: May Auto Market Domestic Demand Under Pressure, Exports Strong; Narrowing Price Difference Between A00 Aluminum and Scrap Tightens Raw Material Supply] The ADC12 market traded steadily on Wednesday, with the SMM ADC12 price remaining flat at 23,900 yuan/mt. This week, cast aluminum alloy futures diverged from SHFE aluminum, with cast aluminum futures steady to firm while SHFE aluminum fell below the 24,000 yuan/mt mark. In the spot market, A00 aluminum prices declined for consecutive sessions, but ADC12 prices remained firm. The spread between the two has returned to positive territory, ending the inversion since April, underscoring the resilience of alloy prices.

[Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory Destocking Accelerates Significantly, Relative High Level Still Caps Aluminum Price Upside Room] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also form a bullish driver. This Thursday, the destocking pace of China’s social inventory of aluminum ingots accelerated notably, effectively easing the earlier high inventory pressure. However, China’s high inventory pressure remains relatively prominent, which is expected to cap the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate.

SMM June 10 news: Market expectations for US interest rate hikes suppressed the upward momentum of SHFE aluminum. In morning trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated downward, with the overall price center dropping significantly from the previous trading day. Buying sentiment in east China recovered somewhat today. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 60-70 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 06 contract. Today, the shipment sentiment index in east China was 2.86, flat day-on-day, while the purchase sentiment index was 2.90, up 0.1 day-on-day. SHFE aluminum futures prices continued to decline. Today, buying sentiment among downstream processing enterprises in central China recovered slightly, and their willingness to purchase on dips improved. Moreover, with low absolute prices and a relatively small price spread between central China and east China, trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market tended to sell in large concentrated volumes to profit from earlier price differences. Eventually, the actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around a discount of 60-90 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 06 contract. Today, the shipment sentiment index in central China was 2.89, up 0.01 day-on-day, while the purchase sentiment index was 2.22, flat day-on-day. On the inventory front, today, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming regions fell by 17,000 mt WoW, with destocking observed in all three regions.

SMM, June 10: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market weakened across the board. SHFE lead fell 0.43%, SHFE tin dropped 1.89%, SHFE nickel lost 2.29%, SHFE copper edged down 0.33%, SHFE aluminum declined 0.85%, and SHFE zinc slipped 0.12%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract rose 0.11%, the most-traded alumina contract gained 3.21%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract added 0.53%, the most-traded silicon metal contract increased 2%, while the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.63%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.59%, rebar added 0.13%, HRC edged lower, and stainless steel fell 0.59%. In the coking coal and coke segment, the most-traded coking coal contract dropped 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract declined 1.35%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals were nearly all lower. LME copper edged up 0.06%, LME aluminum fell 1.03%, LME lead dropped 0.38%, LME zinc declined 0.24%, LME tin lost 0.92%, and LME nickel slipped 0.36%. In precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.99%, touching an intraday low of $4,195.5/oz, while COMEX silver dropped 1.82%. In domestic precious metals, the most-traded SHFE gold contract declined 3.79%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract slumped 6.79%. Ilya Spivak, global macro head at Tastylive, noted that the real drivers lie in shifting expectations around US Fed policy, rising yields, and a stronger US dollar. "I think these factors are all weighing on gold," he said. Spivak added that if gold breaks below the $4,100 mark, support levels would fundamentally change, and by the end of the year, we may be looking at the next threshold of $3,500. (Jin10 Data APP) Meanwhile, by the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 5.43%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract dropped 2.77%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe container freight futures contract climbed 3.2% to 3,993 points. As of 11:39 on June 10, some futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: Today, #0 zinc mainstream transaction prices were concentrated in the 24,575-24,745 yuan/mt range, Shuangyan was mainly transacted at 24,675-24,835 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc mainstream deals were at 24,505-24,675 yuan/mt. In early trading, the market quoted premiums of 20-30 yuan/mt against the SMM average price, with no quotes against the futures contract yet... Macro Front China side: [National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): May CPI Rose 1.2% YoY, PPI Rose 3.9% YoY, with PPI Continuing to Increase] NBS data showed that in May 2026, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.2% YoY. Specifically, urban CPI rose 1.3% YoY, while rural CPI rose 1.1% YoY; food prices fell 1.7% YoY, while non-food prices rose 1.9% YoY; consumer goods prices rose 1.6% YoY, while services prices rose 0.8% YoY. In the January–May average, national CPI rose 1.0% YoY. In May, national CPI edged down 0.1% MoM. In May 2026, China’s national producer price index (PPI) rose 3.9% YoY and 0.5% MoM. The industrial producer purchasing price index rose 5.8% YoY and 1.3% MoM. In the January–May average, PPI rose 1.0% YoY, while the purchasing price index rose 1.6% YoY. Within the purchasing price index in May, price increases were led by non-ferrous metals and wires (22.0%), chemical raw materials (11.8%), fuels and power (10.0%), textile raw materials (2.5%), and ferrous metals (0.3%); meanwhile, declines were seen in building materials and non-metallic products (-5.5%) and agricultural and sideline products (-1.6%). Dong Lijuan, chief statistician of the Urban Department at the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), commented on the CPI and PPI data for May 2026. The PBOC conducted a 159-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at an operation rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous operation. No reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index slipped 0.01% to 99.94. Renewed conflict between the US and Iran drove up both the dollar and oil prices, exacerbating market concerns over inflation and interest rate hikes. Markets are awaiting key US inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. (Jinshi Data APP) At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. This is also the most closely watched heavyweight inflation data ahead of the new Fed Chair Warsh's policy rate meeting next week. According to forecasts, four institutions, including Goldman Sachs, UBS, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley, project the overall CPI YoY for May to be in the 4.17%–4.3% range, all above April’s 3.81% . However, their MoM core CPI forecasts are generally below market consensus. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through June is 98.2%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate cut is 1.8%. The probability that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged through July stands at 85.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 bp rate hike is 12.6%, and that of a cumulative 25 bp rate cut is 1.6%. CSC Financial pointed out that, in the short term, the likelihood of a Fed rate hike remains low, and the market's concerns about Fed tightening are mainly at the expectations level, built on assumptions of sticky US inflation and a persistently hot labor market. CME FedWatch data shows that markets outside China expect the most likely Fed rate hike to begin at the end of October 2026. The current global liquidity tightening and market adjustment represent a front-running reaction to expectations for a Fed rate hike in Q4. For China’s bond market, the increase in expectations of Fed tightening is not a negative factor. China’s bond market is relatively independent and has a relatively small correlation with US Treasuries. Moreover, given the ample liquidity in China, the expected tightening of liquidity outside China and the adjustment in equity markets may not rule out the possibility of driving capital into the bond market, supporting current levels of long-dated bonds. Going forward, the 10-year Chinese government bond yield is expected to continue to fluctuate around the 1.70% mark; a break below 1.70% would still require the emergence of incremental domestic information. Data Releases: Today, the following data will be released: US May unadjusted CPI YoY, US May seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US May unadjusted core CPI YoY, the Bank of Canada interest rate decision due June 10, and China May M2 money supply YoY (pending). In addition, the following should be watched: the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision announcement; and a monetary policy press conference by Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers. Crude Oil: As of 11:39, both oil benchmarks rose, with WTI up 0.94% and Brent up 0.98%. Renewed supply concerns stemming from the re-erupting conflict in the Middle East, together with declining US crude oil inventories, have provided support to oil prices. Data: US API crude oil inventories for the week ended June 5: -9.119 million barrels (expected -3.421 million, prior -6.757 million). US API gasoline inventories for the week ended June 5: -1.191 million barrels (expected -614,000, prior 3.454 million). (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday local time that, due to the loss of over 11 million barrels per day of crude oil production in the Middle East caused by the conflict, major consuming countries are drawing down inventories at an unprecedented pace to fill the supply gap, and OECD oil inventories are heading towards their lowest levels since at least 2003. EIA stated that, under its current assumption that shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels before early 2027, total OECD oil inventories will fall to just below 2.3 billion barrels by December. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Aluminum Alloy Daily Comment] Today, the SMM ADC12 price remained flat at 23,900 yuan/mt. This week, cast aluminum alloy futures diverged from SHFE aluminum futures, with the former strengthening steadily while the latter fell below the 24,000 yuan/mt mark. In the spot market, A00 aluminum prices continued to decline, while ADC12 prices remained firm. Today, the price spread between the two returned to positive territory, ending the inversion that had persisted since April, highlighting the resilience of alloy prices.

[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum futures prices continued to decline. Today, the buying sentiment of downstream processing enterprises in central China recovered slightly, and their willingness to purchase on dips increased somewhat. Moreover, with low absolute prices, the price spread between central China and SHFE aluminum was relatively small, prompting trading firms engaging in both spot and futures markets to sell in large volumes in a concentrated manner, aiming to capture the price spread accrued earlier. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market ranged around a discount of 60-90 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum June contract.