[Weekly Operating Rates in the Aluminum Processing Industry: China's Aluminum Processing Sector Sees Modest Growth Amid Peak Season Demand] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China edged up 1 percentage point WoW to 62.9%.

[SMM Flash News] Aluminum Fundamentals This Week SMM, March 12: Fundamentals: Downstream producers gradually resumed operations after the holiday, and demand for liquid aluminum continued to recover. As of this Thursday, the weekly proportion of liquid aluminum rebounded by about 1.2 percentage points WoW, end-use demand steadily repaired, and downstream operating rates increased further. Driven by the PV installation rush, operating performance remained strong; construction recovered slowly after the holiday, and extrusion operating rates rose WoW; boosted by auto and packaging orders, aluminum plate/sheet, strip and foil operating rates also rebounded this week.

SMM, February 28th， Driven by the global clean energy transition, the energy storage industry is achieving steady growth. Its core value lies in effectively mitigating the inherent intermittency and volatility of renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, providing critical assurance for stable clean electricity output. This development trend will sustainably drive demand for key metals across the energy storage supply chain. As one of the core materials, aluminum applications in energy storage systems primarily focus on aluminum sheets, strips, foils, and extrusions. I. Scale of Aluminum Consumption in ESS According to SMM calculations, each 1GWh energy storage system consumes approximately 1,780 tons of aluminum , of which aluminum extrusions account for about 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for about 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for about 18%. From the perspective of industry growth drivers, global energy storage cell production is entering a period of rapid growth: According to SMM estimates, the global demand for energy storage cells will be approximately 559 GWh in 2025, and is expected to reach 779 GWh in 2026, with a year-on-year increase of 39%; even as the base expands, the annual demand from 2027 to 2030 will still maintain a growth rate of over 20%. In terms of aluminum demand, Chinese enterprises dominate the energy storage market, driving increased domestic aluminum consumption. SMM research indicates China's energy storage battery cabinet shipments will reach approximately 400GWh in 2025, accounting for over 80% of global share. Based on SMM's calculation of 1,780 tons of aluminum per GWh for energy storage systems and global battery cabinet shipments, the global aluminum demand for energy storage systems in 2025 will reach 850,000 tons, with China consuming approximately 710,000 tons. Domestic demand for aluminum in energy storage is projected to increase by 280,000 tons in 2026. However, it should be noted that with the continuous iteration of large-cell technology, the unit consumption of aluminum structural components in energy storage systems has room for reduction. In the long term, there is still potential for optimizing aluminum consumption per unit. II. Calculation of Aluminum Profile Materials per Unit of ESS Due to design variations across different energy storage products, this section separates aluminum consumption calculations for energy storage cells from other system components . 1.Core Application Scenarios of Aluminum Materials in EES Aluminum materials, with advantages such as lightweight, corrosion resistance, and excellent processing performance, have been deeply integrated into the core components of ESS, with their main applications concentrated in three major areas: Energy Storage Cell Component: Primarily used for cell aluminum foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Pack Component : Primarily used for battery trays, liquid cooling plates, battery end plates, and battery enclosures, etc. Energy Storage System Component: Main applications include energy storage system enclosures, radiators, etc. 2.Aluminum Consumption in Energy Storage Cells Aluminum usage in energy storage cells primarily involves battery foil, aluminum casings, and tabs. Currently, the aluminum consumption per cell is approximately 615t/GWh, with aluminum foil accounting for 300-330 t/GWh. 3.Aluminum Consumption in ESS Due to variations in technical approaches and application scenarios, different manufacturers employ distinct design solutions for energy storage systems. When calculating aluminum consumption, we use industry average values: In industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage projects, each rack is on average configured with 4.5 battery packs. In grid-side energy storage projects, each rack averages 8 battery packs, with each system containing an average of 12 rack. The aluminum components of the battery pack include the tray, liquid cooling plate, box body, and end plate. The structure of the battery tray is similar to that of new energy vehicle battery trays, but the product specifications are smaller and the cross-sectional design is more simplified. SMM calculates the aluminum consumption of a single battery pack based on the average weight data of components provided by mainstream aluminum production enterprises. In addition, the core equipment of the energy storage system, the power conversion system (PCS), and its supporting radiator also need to consume aluminum materials.While aluminum enclosures exist for ESS, market research indicates steel enclosures currently dominate the market, with aluminum enclosures holding less than 20% market share. The weight range per unit is from several hundred kilograms to 2 tons. Based on the above parameter calculations: the comprehensive aluminum consumption of industrial, commercial, and residential energy storage systems is 2030 tons/GWh,while for grid-side energy storage systems it is 1,720 tons/GWh. Weighted by the shipment share of different energy storage system types, the final comprehensive aluminum consumption for energy storage systems is calculated as 1,780 t/GWh. 4.Consumption Structure of Aluminum Materials in Energy Storage Systems From a production process perspective, the manufacturing methods for core components such as aluminum casings and liquid cooling plates encompass multiple pathways including sheet metal stamping, profile processing, and casting. This section breaks down the consumption structure of aluminum material categories in energy storage systems based on the proportion of mainstream process applications: aluminum extrusions account for approximately 44%, aluminum sheets and strips account for approximately 39%, and aluminum foil accounts for approximately 18%.

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis SMM News on June 25: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2508 contract opened at 20,300 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,360 yuan/mt, a low of 20,240 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,355 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 117,000 lots, and open interest was 254,000 lots. SMM Commentary: On the macro front, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has eased geopolitical risks, reducing the demand for capital flight, which is short-term bearish for aluminum prices. US Fed Chair Powell's neutral stance, combined with potential expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts and pressure from Trump, may boost the economy, providing support for aluminum prices. The PBOC and six other departments jointly issued a document to stimulate consumption, which is bullish for end-user aluminum demand. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remains stable, with the proportion of liquid aluminum staying high, and the market supply of casting ingots remains tight. On the demand side, overall, most downstream sectors are in the traditional off-season. Downstream production cuts in central China have been significant, with weak spot transactions and sustained large discounts in the market. The weakening off-season demand in the PV and home appliance sectors cannot be ignored, with a noticeable drop in the operating rates of related sectors. The wire and cable sector has seen a decline in operating rates due to the end of the previous delivery period and high aluminum prices. In terms of inventory, the destocking pace has slowed, and low inventory still supports the futures market. Inventory buildup occurred on Monday this week, and it needs to be observed whether the destocking turning point has officially formed. However, spot premiums/discounts have gradually pulled back. Overall, in the short term, aluminum prices are suppressed by inventory accumulation and geopolitical easing. However, in the medium term, macro policies (such as domestic consumption stimulus and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts) may boost demand. It is expected that aluminum prices will fluctuate downward in the short term, and subsequent focus should be on changes in inventory and demand. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,894 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,920 yuan/mt, a low of 2,885 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,919 yuan/mt. Trading volume was 233,000 lots, and open interest was 285,000 lots. SMM Commentary: Last week, some alumina refineries completed maintenance and resumed production. Meanwhile, considering ore costs, there were new reports of production cuts. The operating capacity of alumina refineries increased and decreased in parallel. Overall, the operating capacity of alumina refineries decreased by 440,000 mt/year MoM to 88.57 million mt/year last week. Spot alumina supply remained loose, and the total inventory of alumina at aluminum smelters increased by 8,600 mt to 2.655 million mt last week. In the short term, the alumina fundamental side is expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot alumina prices are expected to drop back slightly. Affected by the easing of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the futures market fluctuated downward yesterday. However, influenced by uncertainties in overseas economic policies, the night session fluctuated upward at one point. Subsequent attention should be paid to the capacity changes of domestic alumina enterprises and their profitability. Today, the most-traded cast aluminum alloy ag2511 futures contract opened at 19,625 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,700 yuan/mt and a low of 19,530 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 19,700 yuan/mt. The trading volume was 3,000 lots, and the open interest was 8,000 lots. SMM Commentary: On Tuesday, the SMM ADC12 price remained stable at 19,900-20,100 yuan/mt. Pressured by the ongoing traditional off-season, demand remained weak, and market transactions were sluggish. The lack of growth in terminal orders constrained the upward movement of ADC12 prices, while the influx of low-priced goods exacerbated market competition. However, the cost side remained relatively firm, providing some support to prices. It is anticipated that under the deepening impact of the off-season, ADC12 prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term. Close attention should be paid to changes in raw material circulation and signs of marginal improvement in demand. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Trade Negotiations Ongoing, Aluminum Prices Under Short-Term Pressure and Fluctuation] The US Fed's Beige Book revealed a slowdown in US economic activity and excessive inflationary pressures, while policy uncertainties heightened market risk aversion. Companies transferring costs amid the economic environment may suppress end-use demand, coupled with international trade friction risks, aluminum prices are likely to face short-term pressure and maintain a fluctuating trend. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remains stable. Notably, some aluminum smelters in north China increased the proportion of liquid aluminum alloying, reducing casting ingot volumes, which affected arrivals in major consumption areas. Demand side, downstream sectors show signs of off-season expectations, with PV aluminum demand declining. Automotive material demand is expected to weaken in mid-to-late June, while construction aluminum demand remains lukewarm. However, aluminum wire and cable operating rates stay high, supported by orders from State Grid. Inventory side, approaching the holiday, some aluminum processing enterprises conducted slight stockpiling based on orders on hand. Overall, short-term market sentiment may weigh on aluminum prices due to tariff impacts, while stronger-than-expected domestic aluminum ingot inventory drawdowns provide support for prices and spot premiums. Some industries already exhibit off-season weakness, but the overall decline is better than expected, with demand resilience persisting. SHFE aluminum is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with solid support at lower levels.

》Check SMM aluminum product quotes, data, and market analysis SMM News on June 4: Today, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2507 contract opened at 20,005 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,110 yuan/mt, a low of 19,975 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,075 yuan/mt, up 0.43%. Trading volume was 97,500 lots, and open interest was 190,000 lots. SMM Commentary: Although the increase in US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is bearish, China's direct aluminum semis exports to the US have been restricted by high tariffs for years, so the actual incremental impact is limited. It mainly affects overall market sentiment, suppressing global aluminum trade liquidity, particularly impacting countries highly dependent on US exports, and exacerbating regional supply surplus pressure in the short term. On the fundamental side, domestic aluminum smelters' operating capacity remains stable. Notably, some aluminum smelters in north China have increased the proportion of liquid aluminum used in alloying, reducing casting ingot volumes and affecting the arrival of goods in major consumption areas. On the demand side, some downstream sectors are showing expectations of an off-season slowdown. Demand for PV aluminum is decreasing, and automotive aluminum demand is expected to weaken in mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remains lukewarm, but currently benefits from orders from State Grid, keeping the operating rate of aluminum wire and cable high. Overall, short-term market sentiment may suppress aluminum prices due to tariff impacts. Meanwhile, domestic aluminum ingot inventory has declined more than expected, supporting aluminum prices and spot premiums. Although some sectors are showing expectations of a weakening off-season, the overall decline is better than expected, and demand resilience remains. It is expected that the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with solid support below. If macro pressures do not escalate significantly, prices may show mild strength. Today, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 3,036 yuan/mt, with a high of 3,086 yuan/mt, a low of 3,010 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,063 yuan/mt, up 0.89%. Trading volume was 316,000 lots, and open interest was 300,000 lots. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, alumina's weekly operating capacity continued to rebound, reaching 86.67 million mt/year as of last Thursday, up MoM, further alleviating spot supply pressure and slowing the rise in spot prices. Recent overseas alumina transactions have been sluggish, with relatively small price fluctuations. As domestic prices continue to rise, alumina imports have shifted from losses to profits, and the domestic alumina import window is gradually opening. In the short term, with the gradual resumption of production from some alumina maintenance and production cuts, alumina supply pressure is expected to gradually ease. The average profit of the alumina industry has entered a profitable state, and the market has strong expectations for alumina production resumptions. Alumina futures prices have taken the lead in pulling back, which may drive spot prices weaker. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research and decision-making. Customers should make decisions cautiously and should not replace their own independent judgment with this information. Any decisions made by customers are not related to SMM.]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,566.5/mt, dipping to a low of $9,557.5/mt shortly after the opening bell.

Futures Market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,604.5/mt. After fluctuating considerably to reach an intraday low, it surged straight up to a high of $9,636.5/mt, then fluctuated downward. Near the close, it hit a low of $9,578/mt before finally closing at $9,615/mt, marking a 1.24% increase.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Escalating International Trade Frictions May Limit Domestic Price Declines Due to Resilient Consumption] Macro side, escalating China-US trade tensions and EU's concerns over US aluminum tariff hikes (to 50%) intensified market uncertainties. However, China's May manufacturing PMI rebound and improved export indicators provided demand support, with economic resilience potentially limiting declines. Aluminum prices faced short-term pressure, likely remaining in the doldrums. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum operating capacity remained stable. Notably, increased liquid aluminum alloying ratios at some north China smelters reduced ingot casting volumes, affecting arrivals at major consumption hubs. Cost side, aluminum production costs rose WoW, with the average immediate complete cost reaching approximately 17,200 yuan/mt as of last Thursday, up 258 yuan/mt WoW. This 1.5% WoW increase primarily stemmed from ore supply disruptions driving alumina prices higher, squeezing smelter margins. Demand side, seasonal weakness emerged in some downstream sectors, with PV-related aluminum demand declining and automotive material demand expected to soften mid-to-late June. Construction aluminum demand remained lackluster, though aluminum wire and cable operating rates stayed elevated thanks to State Grid orders. Overall, while domestic macro sentiment remained positive, overseas uncertainties persisted. Fundamentals-wise, faster-than-expected aluminum ingot inventory drawdowns supported prices and spot premiums. Though seasonal weakness appeared in certain industries, the overall demand decline proved milder than anticipated, maintaining resilience. Subsequent focus should center on inventory and demand dynamics, with domestic aluminum prices likely to fluctuate rangebound amid mixed factors.

On May 15 (Thursday), renowned investment bank JP Morgan forecast that the average copper price for the second half of the year (H2) would be $9,225 per metric ton (mt), and the average aluminum price would be $2,325 per mt. The bank noted that the better-than-expected easing of US-China trade tensions was a key factor in reducing the likelihood of an economic recession, thereby mitigating the downside risks to demand and prices for these two base metals. The US and China have revoked, suspended, or adjusted tariff hikes in accordance with the consensus reached in high-level economic and trade talks, steering the trade conflict in a positive direction. JP Morgan pointed out that in the short term, prices may rise further as Chinese buyers continue to make advance purchases following the easing of tariffs. In a research report, the bank stated, "As demand eventually slows down, we also see that the tight micro fundamentals for metals like copper will gradually ease. Since the macro-driven sell-off in early April, micro fundamentals have been supporting prices." The bank further forecast that with the US imposing additional tariffs on copper imported under Section 232, leading to a reduction in the volume of surplus goods shipped to the US, more supply will flow into Asia in the coming months. Although the bank warned that copper prices exceeding $9,500 could trigger a price-sensitive reaction, it added that aluminum's low visible inventory coverage rate remains a supportive micro factor. However, JP Morgan stated that a significant decline in automotive demand, which accounts for 25% of global aluminum demand, could lead to a drop in aluminum prices later this year. At 14:45 Beijing time, three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell by $84 or 0.87% to $9,522.50 per mt, while three-month aluminum dropped by $20.5 or 0.81% to $2,508 per mt.