[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alcoa will invest US$65 million to upgrade its Mosjøen smelter in Norway, adding a new casting line, melting furnaces, and casthouse upgrades. The project will increase foundry capacity by up to 75,000 tpy and introduce post-consumer recycled aluminum into production for the first time, responding to rising recycled-content requirements from automotive and packaging customers in Europe. The upgrade will be completed in phases, with commissioning and ramp-up scheduled throughout 2028.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Egypt Aluminum Company confirmed that Trafigura is expected to take a minority stake in the proposed Naga Hammadi expansion project in Egypt. The project remains under feasibility study and negotiation, targeting an additional 300,000 tons per year of aluminum capacity with estimated investment of US$900 million.

[Geopolitical and Supply-Demand Factors Intertwined, SHFE and LME Aluminum Maintain a Range-Bound Weak Pattern in the Short Term] With the macro situation fluctuating, domestic aluminum prices underperformed LME aluminum under high inventory pressure. Attention should still be paid to whether the turning point in China's inventory can arrive smoothly.

The 2026 SMM London H1 Seminar concluded on April 29 with great success, bringing together global metals and commodities leaders for a day of high-level dialogue and actionable insights. The seminar drew over 160 valid pre-registrations and more than 100 on-site attendees, gathering core practitioners, senior experts, research scholars and institutional representatives across the global non-ferrous metals industrial chain. Centered on copper, aluminum, lead and zinc, the event delivered in-depth insights into current industry performance, supply-demand shifts and future market outlooks. It also featured two high-level panel sessions with distinguished guests, who exchanged views on key industry highlights such as geopolitical impacts, global trade restructuring, cross-market arbitrage and divergent commodity fundamentals. The event comprehensively reviewed the macro backdrop of commodities as well as opportunities and risks in base metals, offering professional references and forward-looking insights for global non-ferrous market participants. SMM Industry Analysis: Copper, Aluminum, Nickel, Lead & Zinc Geopolitics and Metals: Pricing the New Global Risk Premium How rising geopolitical tensions are reshaping global supply chains, macro risk, and base metal price formation. Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd., provided analysis on macro trends and the aluminum and nickel markets. From a macro perspective, he noted that global economic uncertainty has intensified, with the IMF cutting global GDP growth forecast. China's exports may serve as a key economic pillar in 2026. Power sector investment increased significantly from January to February 2026. The State Grid Corporation of China will ramp up investment during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. In terms of the aluminum market, Chinese smelters saw improved profitability and higher operating rates. Weak demand in Q1 combined with rising aluminum prices drove inventory to rise. Outside China, new aluminum capacity additions in Indonesia in 2026 are expected to be substantial, with SMM estimating approximately 950,000 mt of new aluminum smelting capacity potentially coming online in Indonesia in 2026. Angola is attracting Chinese investment thanks to its hydropower advantages. In the nickel market, given the Indonesian government's tightening of quotas, SMM estimates Indonesia's RKAB supplementary quotas this year at approximately 15%-20%. In terms of supply outside China, constrained by a lack of new projects, imports from the Philippines are expected to remain at around 19 million mt. Considering the impact of the rainy season on production, the market is expected to maintain a tight balance. Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Market Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM, shared insights on the global copper market. He noted that global copper cathode demand will continue to grow from 2025 to 2030, with demand potentially reaching around 32 million mt by 2030 in an optimistic scenario. China's copper concentrates still rely on imports, and global copper concentrates supply will remain tight from 2026 to 2028, with the downward trend in spot TC not yet over. Meanwhile, global copper cathode production growth will slow down in the future, and the market will most likely fall into a supply deficit from 2027 to 2030, providing long-term support for copper prices. Yueang He, Senior Lead & Zinc Analyst at SMM, interpreted the lead-zinc market trends for 2026. Looking at the global zinc concentrates market in 2026, he stated that although production in China, Africa, and some projects continues to ramp up, production cuts at large mines are suppressing overall supply, with China's zinc concentrates production estimated to be up 4.8% YoY to 3.95 million mt in 2026; European smelting, affected by electricity prices fluctuations, may see selective minor production cuts of 60,000-100,000 mt. Overall, the zinc concentrates market in and outside China will maintain a tight balance in 2026, with refined zinc showing a surplus in China and a deficit ex-China. In terms of lead market, he stated that global lead mine supply is gradually recovering, but the concentrates market remains tight, and TC is unlikely to rebound significantly in the short term. He estimates that the loose supply situation in the global refined lead market will persist until 2028, with high visible inventory on both exchanges combined with slightly soft battery demand in China limiting the upside room for lead prices. Panel Session — Positioning and Price Signals: What Are Commodity Markets Telling Us? Understanding market positioning, inventory signals, and cross-market arbitrage. Moderator: Shairaz Ahmed, Principal Analyst & Client Advisor at SMM Panelists: David Lilley, Director and Co-CIO at Drakewood Capital Management Limited Maruis Van Straaten, Metals Research Analyst at Squarepoint Gregory Shearer, Head of Base Metals and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan Loic Jonchery, Base Metals Trader at Gunvor The panelists focused on current mainstream cross-market arbitrage strategies, emphasizing the need to closely track premiums and futures price spreads across various commodities, while comparing price spread performance across upstream and downstream categories such as cathode materials, scrap, and intermediate products, leveraging signals to identify arbitrage opportunities. The current market is subject to multiple influences including policy constraints, supply adjustments, and changes in industry rules, with the overall landscape becoming increasingly fragmented. China's policies have imposed a supply ceiling, compounded by industry framework adjustments and lengthy implementation cycles, keeping small and medium-sized enterprise operations and the supply side persistently tight, increasing market friction, and creating significant uncertainty in arbitrage trading. In this complex environment, price spread fluctuations have amplified and ranges continued to widen, with enhanced trend continuity in underlying markets; combined with cross-regional approval processes and circulation restrictions, traditional arbitrage logic has broken down and trade execution difficulty has increased. At the sub-sector level, the copper market attracted high attention, while structural distortions in nickel and other categories became prominent, making conventional arbitrage and sales models difficult to execute consistently; quality arbitrage opportunities concentrated among entities with balance sheet advantages, while ordinary participants became more cautious in decision-making, with overall trading behavior turning more conservative. Overall, the guests believed that there is no universally applicable, low-risk cross-market arbitrage strategy in the current market. Logic across different sub-markets has diverged significantly, and conducting related trades requires thorough assessment of policy, circulation, and fundamental risks. Panel Session: Superpowers and the Battle for Base Metals Moderator: Dr. Yanchen Wang, Managing Director of SMM Global UK Ltd. Panelists: Natalie Scott-Gray, Senior Metals Analyst, Middle East, North Africa and Asia, StoneX Max Layton, Global Head of Commodities Strategy, Citi Helen Amos, Managing Director and Commodities Analyst, BMO Capital Markets Amy Gower, Executive Director, Head of Metals and Mining Commodities Strategy, Morgan Stanley Amy Gower stated that since H2 last year, they have held a structurally bullish view on aluminum fundamentals: China's aluminum capacity is approaching its ceiling, and combined with expectations of incremental supply from Indonesia, the bullish logic for the aluminum industry is concentrated in H2. Currently, supply-side tightening in the aluminum market has gradually materialized, but the tightness has not been fully reflected in futures prices, and is instead more evident in strengthening spot premiums. Year-to-date, three-month aluminum has risen 18%, with European spot premiums at 27%. In addition, the guests noted that due to geopolitical factors, countries are increasingly prioritizing self-sufficiency and controllability of critical material supply chains, rather than relying on globalized supply allocation. Combined with various policy interventions, the previously freely flowing global commodities market is gradually moving toward regionalization and localized fragmentation. On the trade front, markets have become more unpredictable, and understanding the market is crucial. Some guests mentioned that interest rate trajectory is a key variable, and they expect that after interest rates decline from 2027 to 2028, supply-demand and inventory dynamics will further materialize. Meanwhile, upgraded supply chain governance and the normalization of strategic reserves across countries will provide long-term support for commodities price resilience. Session 4: How Do SMM Data and Information Products Empower Commodities Decision-Makers? As a globally renowned non-ferrous metals price assessment platform, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) is committed to providing superior data to clients worldwide, empowering them to make more precise decisions. SMM understands that in a complex and ever-changing market environment, accurate and timely data is the key to success. To this end, SMM has built a comprehensive data platform covering multiple metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel. Taking the copper market as an example, the SMM database covers the entire industry chain from mines, smelting, trading, and inventory to downstream demand, offering over 10,000 key indicators across sub-categories such as copper cathode, copper scrap, copper concentrates, copper anode, and sulphuric acid, including real-time spot prices, futures data, supply-demand balance tables, operating rates, and social inventory, comprehensively meeting clients' analytical needs. To make data access simpler and more convenient, SMM launched the SMM Excel Add-in. Users need no programming or API knowledge to browse, select, and sync massive amounts of data with a single click within the familiar Excel environment. In addition to easy-to-use data tools, SMM also offers professional price membership services and in-depth market analysis reports. Whether you are a trader who needs real-time price references, an analyst who relies on granular data to build models, or an enterprise manager seeking market insights, you can find the right solution at SMM. Coffee Break and Networking With this, the 2026 SMM H1 London Seminar has come to a successful conclusion. SMM sincerely appreciates the strong support from all industry peers and partners.

[Geopolitical Disruptions Combined with Elevated Inventory Highlight LME Outperforming SHFE in Aluminum Market] Overall, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse in the short term. LME strength will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, the focus will be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

SMM News, May 6: According to SMM data, the average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry in April 2026 rose by 1.5% month-on-month and fell by 0.6% year-on-year, mainly due to a mild increase in prices of raw and auxiliary materials during the period. In April, the supply gap of primary aluminum overseas pushed up LME aluminum prices. However, high domestic inventory put strong downward pressure on aluminum price upside. The monthly average price of SMM A00 spot aluminum (March 26 - April 25) edged up only 1.0% month-on-month. The profit margin of primary aluminum narrowed slightly by RMB 12 per ton to RMB 8,303 per ton, with the average profit surging 125.1% year-on-year. Calculated based on the monthly average price, 100% of the operational primary aluminum capacity in the domestic market remained profitable in April. Breakdown of Cost Components Alumina price dipped intra-month but monthly average climbed month-on-month SMM data showed that the monthly average SMM alumina index stood at RMB 2,736 per ton in the statistical period of March 26 to April 25, up 1.9% month-on-month. The overall operational alumina capacity stayed stable during the month, and prices bottomed out and rebounded. Driven by market rumors over the bauxite quota policy in Guinea, bullish market sentiment picked up moderately. Nevertheless, the relatively high price at the start of the month lifted the overall monthly average. Entering May, with newly commissioned capacity ramping up steadily, alumina output is expected to increase. Meanwhile, continuous inflows of imported alumina into the domestic market will further ease spot alumina supply. Given the pending clarification of Guinea’s bauxite policy, supply tightening may trigger a minor price rebound. Alumina raw material costs are expected to remain in a consolidating trend in April. Rising costs drive up prices of auxiliary materials Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East pushed up international crude oil prices in April. Higher cost levels kept petroleum coke prices on an upward track, underpinning higher prebaked anode prices. Aluminum fluoride prices also moved higher in April amid rising raw material costs. Auxiliary material prices will maintain an upward trend in May, driving a further rise in the auxiliary material cost of primary aluminum and lifting the overall cost center slightly. Power prices stabilize, hydropower costs expected to drop entering wet season Power prices remained generally steady in April. As the market gradually transitions from the normal water period to the wet season starting in May, hydropower tariffs in some regions are projected to edge down, leading to a mild decline in the power cost of primary aluminum production. Overall, the weighted average all-in tax-included cost of the domestic primary aluminum industry edged higher in April 2026. The primary aluminum cost is expected to keep rising moderately month-on-month in May, with the average level projected at around RMB 16,200 - 16,600 per ton.

SMM News, April 30: According to SMM statistics, China’s primary aluminum output in April 2026 (30 days) rose by 1.7% year-on-year and fell by 2.9% month-on-month. As the traditional peak consumption season continues, demand from downstream sectors including aluminum sheet, strip & foil and aluminum wires & cables has formed effective support. The domestic liquid aluminum ratio edged up moderately, rising by 1.7 percentage points month-on-month to 75.3% in April. The overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, mainly dragged by weaker-than-anticipated orders for aluminum profiles. Based on SMM’s liquid aluminum ratio calculation data, domestic primary aluminum ingot output in April dropped by 3.4% year-on-year and 9.0% month-on-month. Capacity Changes: As of late April, China’s commissioned primary aluminum capacity surveyed by SMM stood at approximately 46.209 million tons, showing no month-on-month changes. Output Forecast: In May 2026, the liquid aluminum production ratio among domestic primary aluminum producers will operate in a differentiated pattern. Overall, with the recovery of overseas market demand, export orders for domestic aluminum fabricated products are expected to keep improving, supporting a mild rebound in the liquid aluminum ratio. comprehensively, the liquid aluminum ratio is projected to increase by 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%.

SMM April 30: This week, aluminum fluoride enterprises mainly focused on fulfilling existing orders. As month-end approached, the market awaited new price guidance, trading atmosphere was sluggish, and prices remained stable. As of now, SMM aluminum fluoride prices closed at 10,980-11,900 yuan/mt; cryolite prices remained stable, with SMM cryolite quoted at 7,000-8,500 yuan/mt. Raw material side: Prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged, but overall cost support remained relatively firm. This week, China's 97% fluorite powder delivery-to-factory prices weakened slightly, with mainstream transaction range at 3,300-3,500 yuan/mt and significant regional price spreads. Influenced by the steady recovery of operating rates in northern producing areas and continuous supplementation from Mongolian imports, the fluorite market's overall supply trended looser, with high-priced sources clearly under pressure in transactions. Demand side, some traders' bearish sentiment intensified, actively cutting prices to facilitate shipments and recover funds; coupled with the approaching holiday, wait-and-see atmosphere in the market was strong, in-market quotations became cautious, new orders lacked follow-through, and the focus was on digesting earlier orders. However, the significant rise in downstream hydrofluoric acid prices boosted fluorite producers' willingness to hold prices firm to some extent. Delayed resumption of operations at Zhejiang mine areas due to safety incidents and periodically low inventory also provided localized support, offsetting some downward pressure, but this was insufficient to counteract the bearish pressure from loose supply and sluggish trading, and fluorite prices overall showed small fluctuations with a weak bias. Aluminum hydroxide prices were under pressure, with the current SMM weighted average price at 1,660 yuan/mt, down 0.42% WoW. The sulphuric acid market was affected by Middle East geopolitical disruptions, with raw material sulphur circulation tight, coupled with firm downstream demand, sulphuric acid prices hovered at highs, and the market performed strongly. Overall, prices of core raw materials for aluminum fluoride diverged, the overall cost center fluctuated at highs, and production pressure on enterprises remained difficult to alleviate. The supply side exhibited a negative cycle of rigid cost increases—deeply pressured profitability—low willingness to operate. Recently, overall raw material costs for aluminum fluoride remained elevated, the industry fell into deep losses with cost inversion, enterprise production enthusiasm was significantly dampened, and the industry's overall operating rate dropped to a low of around 40%. Demand side, downstream operating aluminum capacity remained stable at highs, forming rigid floor demand for aluminum fluoride. Brief comment: This week, the aluminum fluoride market operated steadily overall, with prices maintaining the level after mid-month raises. Raw material side, fluorite and aluminum hydroxide prices weakened slightly, sulphuric acid prices fluctuated at highs, and comprehensive raw material costs remained elevated, continuously exerting significant operational pressure on producers. The supply side remained suppressed by high costs, with industry operating rates staying low and overall output unlikely to see significant increases; the demand side, although rigid demand from aluminum provided some support, downstream enterprises had limited ability to absorb costs, aluminum fluoride price increases faced resistance in passing through to downstream, elevated comprehensive production costs were difficult to effectively transfer, and most enterprises in the industry remained in losses. Currently, sulphuric acid prices remained on the strong side, cost pass-through to downstream still showed obvious lag, and industry profit recovery remained challenging. The current weak pattern of high costs, low profits, and low operating rates in the aluminum fluoride industry continued, the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers intensified, and under strong support from high raw material costs, producers showed clear willingness to raise ex-factory prices. Aluminum fluoride prices are expected to show a broad upward adjustment next month.

[SMM Aluminum Price Weekly Review: Domestic and International Aluminum Prices Weakened in Tandem, Weak Macro Sentiment Dragged Down Pre-Holiday Market]

SMM April 30 News: According to SMM statistics, China's aluminum production in April 2026 (30 days) was up 1.7% YoY and down 2.9% MoM. As the traditional peak consumption season continued, downstream sectors such as plate/sheet, strip and foil, and aluminum wire and cable provided effective demand support. The proportion of liquid aluminum in China edged up, rising 1.7 percentage points MoM to 75.3%. Overall performance was slightly below early-month expectations, with the core drag coming from weaker-than-expected aluminum extrusion orders. Based on SMM's proportion of liquid aluminum calculation data, China's aluminum casting ingot volume in April declined 3.4% YoY and 9.0% MoM. Capacity changes: As of month-end April, SMM statistics showed China's existing aluminum capacity at approximately 46.209 million mt, with no MoM change. Production forecast: Entering May 2026, the proportion of liquid aluminum production among China's aluminum enterprises is expected to diverge. Overall, as demand in markets outside China recovers, export orders for China's aluminum semis are expected to continue improving, supporting a slight rebound in the proportion of liquid aluminum. Overall, the proportion of liquid aluminum is expected to rise 0.5 percentage points to 75.8%. [Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.] Data source: SMM