[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Overnight Aluminum Futures Closed Lower, Spot Cargo Under Short-Term Pressure] On Wednesday, the ADC12 market generally showed a downward trend, with mainstream producers broadly lowering quotes by 100 yuan/mt. This price adjustment was mainly driven by the pullback in aluminum prices, which weakened cost support. Enterprises accordingly adjusted their quotes in line with market changes, but the overall magnitude of the adjustment remained relatively restrained, indicating a rather cautious market sentiment.

[Macro Pressures Combined With High Inventory, SHFE Aluminum Remained Under Pressure at Elevated Levels in the Short Term] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. In China, social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had not ended. High inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighed on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and SHFE aluminum fell below the key threshold of 25,000 yuan/mt, remaining mainly under pressure at elevated levels in the short term.

SMM, March 17: Aluminum ingot: Today, sentiment in the Foshan A00 spot aluminum market recovered moderately. The rebound in early-session futures prices drove spot prices higher, and suppliers took the opportunity to accelerate cashing out. Traders showed moderate willingness to purchase, while major players held prices firm in procurement, but downstream buyers were unwilling to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. In the afternoon, futures moved downward, buyers turned cautious, and transactions started steady before weakening, with overall performance showing a mild rebound. Aluminum billet: Today, the average processing fees for SMM 6063 aluminum billet (Guangdong) were 70 yuan/mt for Φ90/100 and 20 yuan/mt for Φ120 and above, down 80 yuan/mt from yesterday. The rise in the base price caused processing fees to continue to decline, while weaker intraday futures prices intensified downstream bearish sentiment, with procurement mainly driven by immediate needs. After futures surged and then pulled back, offers were lowered accordingly. Market inquiries were scarce, transactions were sluggish, and even volume discounts remained ineffective in stimulating deals.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Prices Retreated After a Rapid Rise, and Market Divergence Intensified at High Levels] Overnight, the aluminum alloy 2604 contract opened higher and then fluctuated downward, opening at 23,770 yuan/mt, rising to 23,820 yuan/mt during the session, and then pulling back under pressure to a low of 23,525 yuan/mt before closing at 23,645 yuan/mt late in the session, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, a decline of 0.34. Open interest edged up by 6 lots to 5,304 lots, with trading volume at 2,417 lots. Wait-and-see sentiment remained strong among market participants, and market divergence intensified at high levels.

[Geopolitical Tensions Combined With Deferred Interest Rate Cut Expectations Leave SHFE Aluminum Under Short-Term Pressure but Fluctuating at Highs] Against the backdrop of continued tightening LME liquidity, LME aluminum still has upward momentum, with strong support from prices outside China, and is expected to maintain a backwardation structure in the short term. China remains in a phase of high inventory coupled with weak fundamentals, and its upward momentum is significantly weaker than that outside China. Amid divergent domestic and external drivers, the SHFE/LME price ratio is expected to continue weakening, and aluminum prices are still expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.

SMM, March 18: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract moved lower today. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchase sentiment rose today. Sellers held prices firm, with mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market mostly ranging from the average price to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.17, up 0.05 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 3.03, up 0.33 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices pulled back, and buying sentiment in the central China market surged. Bullish sentiment in the market was strong, and willingness to buy the dip was significant. Meanwhile, suppliers tended to hold back from selling and turned to purchasing at lower prices to profit from the price spread. Only some trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market took profits on premiums and shipped goods, while the overall reluctance to sell was evident. Market quotations ranged from parity with the central China price to a premium of 60 yuan, but final actual transactions were mainly concentrated at premiums of 30-40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.59, down 0.01 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.42, up 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased 8,500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its seasonal buildup after the Chinese New Year. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums were expected to remain on a narrowing trend.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

SMM, March 17: The SHFE aluminum 04 contract opened higher and extended gains today, with strong bullish sentiment in the market. Sellers held prices firm, buyers showed greater price acceptance, and purchasing enthusiasm also increased. Today, mainstream quotations and transaction prices in the market were concentrated at -10 yuan/mt to +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.12, down 0.05 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.7, up 0.04 MoM. Today, futures prices opened lower and moved higher. Before the opening, quotations in the central China market were relatively high, mainly at discounts of 320-330 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract, then prices gradually declined. Traders maintained strong bullish sentiment and high enthusiasm for purchase, with overall trading volume relatively large. As suppliers basically finished shipments, circulating spot availability became tight, and market quotations continued to rise, but the transaction scale was relatively small. In the end, the actual transaction price range in the central China market was around 10 yuan below the central China price to 40 yuan above the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.6, down 0.02 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.38, up 0.02 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 4,000 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly coming from Guangdong and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: V-Shaped Rebound in Futures, ADC12 to Fluctuate at Highs in the Short Term] Overnight, aluminum alloy 2604 in the night session bottomed out and showed a rangebound fluctuating trend: after the opening, it quickly fell to around 23,570 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward, with a trading range of 23,570-23,715 yuan/mt, and closed at 23,710 yuan/mt at the end of the session, down 0.50% from the previous day's closing price. Intraday, it first fell sharply and then staged a V-shaped rebound, before entering sideways consolidation, with the tug-of-war between longs and shorts remaining balanced. Trading volume shrank, open interest edged up slightly, and market sentiment remained cautious.

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