SMM June 16 News: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. LME tin led the gains with a 2.54% increase, while SHFE tin rose 1.52%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.8%, and LME aluminum dropped 4.52%, with the rest of the metals posting % changes within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 1.5%, and cast aluminum main contract declined 1.41%. Overnight, ferrous metals generally fell. Iron ore rose 0.39%, hot-rolled coil edged up 0.18%, and stainless steel gained 1.72%, while declines for the remaining metals were relatively small. For coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 0.7% and coke dipped 0.36%. Overnight in precious metals, COMEX gold rose 2.18% and COMEX silver jumped 3.07%. Domestically, SHFE gold gained 1.77% and SHFE silver climbed 2.49%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM on June 16: Macro Front Domestically: [NDRC and other departments: Launch a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and other departments decided to organize and implement a three-year action plan targeting energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades in key sectors including steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power. It was mentioned that these key industries account for large-scale, high-intensity energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, making them the top priority for improving energy efficiency, reducing coal consumption, and lowering carbon emissions. Starting in 2026, the plan will focus on nine sectors—steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, oil refining, ethylene, synthetic ammonia, methanol, and coal-fired power—to fully implement energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrades over three years, driving enterprises to elevate their energy and carbon efficiency levels as much as possible and significantly improve the industry's green, low-carbon development. Starting in 2028, the implementation scope is to be further expanded based on actual conditions, with additional sectors advanced progressively, and various regions can proceed in an orderly manner ahead of schedule in line with work needs. [PBOC's reverse repo delivers a net injection of 206.5 billion yuan today] The People's Bank of China conducted 425 billion yuan in seven-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 218.5 billion yuan in reverse repo matured. US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index edged down 0.11% to 99.68. US asset manager PGIM holds a fringe view that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year to cool an overheating economy, before reversing the hikes in 2027. The firm had forecast rate cuts this year as recently as April. PGIM stated the US economy is "exceptionally strong," and persistently sticky inflation requires a new approach. Given this backdrop, and with the Fed having missed its 2% target for five consecutive years, PGIM expects three rate hikes this year to bolster its credibility and anchor inflation expectations. "The rate hikes would be politically palatable for Warsh if they are characterized as 'preventive' measures to address supply-side inflation and the recent gyrations in long-term Treasuries," PGIM said. However, the firm noted it expects the Fed "to reverse these hikes relatively quickly, with three rate cuts in 2027 and one further cut in 2028, taking the terminal rate to 3.375%—below the current rate and likely close to the neutral rate." (Jin10 Data APP) Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, said the oil price pullback following the US-Iran agreement announcement saw the Treasury market strengthen, easing pressure on the Fed to hike rates this year. "Even before the ceasefire deal, as oil prices were coming down, the two-year yield was still rising because markets were pricing in a near-100% probability of a December hike," Falconio said. "Now what's happening is oil prices are falling and markets are unwinding those rate-hike expectations. As a result, the two-year yield is starting to decline." New Fed Chairman Warsh will preside over his first interest rate decision this week. After the recent surge in crude oil prices reignited inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting rate hikes this year have been growing. Falconio said she expects the FOMC to formally drop its easing bias at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes the Fed's next move will be a cut, occurring in 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in June is 98.5%, with a 1.5% chance of cumulative 25bp of cuts. For July, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 91.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 7.4%, and the probability of cumulative 25bp of cuts is 1.4%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data Front: Data to be released today include China's May total retail sales YoY, China's May value-added of industrial output above designated size YoY, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 30, US May annualized housing starts, US May building permits, US May import price index MoM, the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision as of June 16, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, the Eurozone's June ZEW economic sentiment index, and the Bank of Japan's target rate as of June 16. Additionally, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will release the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic performance. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology will convene a seminar to launch the High-Quality Token Service Capability Climbing Plan. The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a monetary policy press conference, and the BOJ will announce its interest rate decision. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil benchmarks fell, with WTI crude down 4.38% and Brent crude down 4.55%. The US and Iran simultaneously announced a ceasefire memorandum of understanding was reached, with Trump authorizing a "free and open" Strait of Hormuz and lifting the naval blockade. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. As the Trump administration nears completion of its plan to release 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the surge in fuel prices triggered by the Iran war, the US emergency crude oil supply has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. According to data released by the US Department of Energy (DOE) on June 15, the US SPR, established after the Arab oil embargo in the early 1970s, has dropped to a near-historic low of approximately 340 million barrels. (From Wallstreetcn APP) According to local news from Iran on the 16th, three oil tankers and two ships carrying essential Iranian goods have breached the US-imposed naval blockade. Separate reports indicated that multiple Iranian vessels successfully transited the blocked area. According to vessel-tracking data, an Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier was heading from international waters toward an Iranian port and had passed the blockade zone. A ship carrying livestock feed had also crossed the blockade and was en route to Iran. Additionally, another Iranian oil tanker fully loaded with crude has passed through the Gulf of Oman and the blockade line, heading to its export destination. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP)

[SMM Aluminum Flash] According to multiple media reports, following the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran, prices in the international energy and metals markets fluctuated significantly. WTI crude oil futures fell by over 5%, while European natural gas prices plunged more than 10%. In the metals market, LME aluminum prices declined during the evening session, dropping over 5% to $3,357/mt. China's most-traded SHFE aluminum contract was also affected, with open interest rising by over 14,000 lots and the price falling by as much as 2% to 23,730 yuan/mt. Market concerns now center on persistently high operating aluminum capacity in China, while new and resumed aluminum capacity outside China will also put pressure on LME aluminum prices.

SMM June 15 news: In the morning session, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated, with aluminum prices holding at relatively high levels. However, high aluminum prices dampened downstream purchasing sentiment, pushing quotes and transaction prices lower. Mainstream spot transaction prices were at a discount of 90–100 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in East China stood at 2.96, flat MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index came in at 2.76, down 0.06 MoM. During the night session, aluminum futures prices rose again. Before the opening, quotes in the central China market had already shown a softening trend. After the opening, absolute prices pulled back, but downstream processing enterprises largely stayed on the sidelines, leading to weak purchasing sentiment. Suppliers showed little willingness to hold prices firm, and quotes declined steadily. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in central China centered around a discount of 170–190 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 2607 contract. Today, the selling sentiment index in central China was 2.92, up 0.01 MoM, while the purchasing sentiment index was 2.20, down 0.01 MoM. On the inventory front, aluminum ingot inventory in major consuming areas fell by 0.7 MoM today, with destocking mainly driven by Guangdong and Wuxi.

According to foreign media reports, in response to applications from Indian Aluminium Industries Limited (IAIL) and SRF Altech, among other companies, India has decided to extend the deadline for imposing anti-dumping duties on aluminum foil with a thickness of 80 micrometers or less imported from China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia until December 15, 2026. On September 29, 2025, the Directorate General of Trade Remedies under the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry initiated sunset reviews of aluminum foil imports from China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia.

Recently, the mass production ceremony for the new automotive aluminum parts plant of the Norwegian Hydro Group was held in the Sino-European Advanced Manufacturing Industrial Park in Chengxiang Town, Taicang. Hydro is deeply involved in the research, development, manufacturing, and low-carbon recycling technologies of aluminum profiles, and its products are widely used by high-end automakers such as BMW, Tesla, and Audi. The project has successfully passed the PPAP production parts approval audit and has officially entered the full-scale mass production stage. It will stably supply high-end lightweight aluminum structural parts for BMW models. After reaching full production capacity, it is expected to generate an additional annual output value of 50 million yuan, adding high-quality foreign-invested capacity to the Taicang automotive parts industry chain.

On June 11, a delegation led by Boris Titov, Russian Chairman of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, visited Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group. Wu Qunying, Party Secretary and Chairman of the Group, held talks with Titov and his delegation at the Group's headquarters, reaching a consensus on deepening trade and expanding cooperation in various business areas. Zhao Liming, member of the Group's Party Committee and Vice General Manager, also participated in the talks. Wu Qunying welcomed Titov and his delegation, noting that Shaanxi Nonferrous Metals Group had previously sent a delegation composed of relevant enterprises from the SCO Nonferrous Metals Joint Venture to Russia and other regions for economic and trade exchanges, achieving a series of fruitful results. He expressed hope that both sides would establish a regular cooperation mechanism in areas such as nonferrous metals, oil and gas, new energy, and import and export business, implementing "list-based management, milestone-based advancement, and responsibility-based implementation." He hoped that with the support of the Russian-Chinese Committee for Friendship, Peace and Development, negotiations would be accelerated to ensure the smooth delivery of trade orders, promoting deeper and more effective pragmatic cooperation in various fields across the Group's overseas operations, achieving a strong alliance and complementary advantages, and creating a new benchmark for in-depth Sino-Russian friendly cooperation.

On June 10th, the groundbreaking ceremony was held for the Qinghai Provincial Investment Group Qiaotou Aluminum & Electricity 600kA Green Aluminum 500,000-ton Capacity Replacement, Transformation and Upgrading Technological Transformation Project. Located in Beichuan Industrial Park, Datong Hui and Tu Autonomous County, Xining City, Qinghai Province, the project has a total construction area of ​​255,693.44 square meters. Its main components include raw material storage and transportation, anode assembly production area, electrolytic flue gas purification system, casting system, GIS power rectification system, and other production systems, as well as necessary auxiliary systems, a comprehensive office building, and living facilities. The structure is a reinforced concrete frame structure.

Qatar Aluminium Manufacturing Company (Qamco) confirmed on Sunday that it has terminated its marketing agency relationship with its partner, Norway's Hydro, in their joint venture, Qatalum. The company did not specify the reason. "Following the termination of the partnership, Qatar Aluminium will temporarily assume responsibility for the marketing and sales of its aluminum products," Qatalum said in a statement. It added that the company will continue constructive communication with Hydro to ensure an orderly transition. It is reported on Friday that Qatar Aluminium cancelled its metal supply agreement with Hydro; Hydro issued a force majeure notice to its customers. Qatalum, established in 2006, has an annual production capacity of 648,000 tons and is a 50/50 joint venture between Hydro and Qatar Energy; Qatar Energy holds a 51% stake in Qamco.

Recently, the group standard "Green Aluminum Enterprise Evaluation Specification," spearheaded by Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd., was officially released. Its release and implementation will effectively address prominent issues such as the lack of unified standards for green aluminum enterprise evaluation and insufficient alignment with international certification systems, providing a normative evaluation basis for green aluminum enterprises in Yunnan Province and across the country. This standard will help aluminum enterprises break through international trade barriers, enhance the premium capacity of green products, and drive the transformation of the aluminum industry toward high-end, intelligent, and green directions, offering a replicable and scalable "Yunnan Experience" for the carbon peak of the national non-ferrous metals industry. In the next step, Yunnan Aluminum Co., Ltd. will take this standard’s release as an opportunity to transform the enterprise’s advanced green manufacturing experience into industry-wide common standards, significantly enhancing its industry discourse power and brand influence in the green aluminum field, and leading the aluminum industry to forge a new path of green, low-carbon, and high-quality development.

China National Machinery Industry Corporation (SINOMACH) announced that on June 11, 2026, its wholly-owned subsidiary, SINOMACH International Engineering (Jiangsu) Co., Ltd., signed a commercial contract with Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. at the 17th International Infrastructure Investment and Construction Summit Forum and Exhibition for the Phase II Project (Sections 1-6) of the Huatong Electrolytic Aluminum Production Line in Angola. The contract amount is RMB 1.717 billion, and the project involves the expansion of an annual production line with a capacity of 120,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum. SINOMACH International Jiangsu will provide design, equipment procurement, and installation and commissioning services.