[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Extended Losses, While Trading Sentiment Recovered Slightly] Market quotes generally moved lower last Friday, with the SMM ADC12 price down 300 yuan/mt to 25,000 yuan/mt. Driven by the price pullback and weekend restocking demand, market trading sentiment recovered somewhat from the previous period, and downstream purchase willingness to buy the dip strengthened, improving transactions for some enterprises. However, overall demand still mainly reflected rigid demand, end-users remained sensitive to price fluctuations, and the pace of restocking stayed cautious. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. The pattern of demand being under pressure is unlikely to change in the short term; downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and coupled with the weak trend in primary aluminum weighing on market sentiment, prices struggled to rise. But with cost support, downside room is also limited. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the trend in primary aluminum and the pace of downstream consumption release.

SMM News, March 23: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated upward, while the price center fell sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall buying sentiment increased today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 2.72, down 0.58 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.3, up 0.07 MoM. Today, aluminum prices extended their decline, and premiums in central China remained in positive territory. Traders’ willingness to purchase and stockpile was somewhat lower than in the previous two days. Although downstream processing enterprises showed some willingness to buy the dip, they still did not make large-scale concentrated purchases, and overall market purchase sentiment weakened somewhat. In the end, actual quotes and transaction prices in the central China market declined all the way, from a 50 yuan premium over the central China price before the opening to near parity with the central China price, while suppliers showed no obvious willingness to hold prices firm. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.63, up 0.01 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.48, down 0.03 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 8,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Guangdong. In the short term, aluminum ingot inventory continued its post-Chinese New Year seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.

[SMM Analysis]Analysis of Import and Export Data for Unwrought Aluminum Alloy, January-February 2026

After the Chinese New Year holiday, China’s aluminum market continued to see an inventory buildup, with social inventory rising लगातार and repeatedly hitting highs for recent years. However, as the traditional peak consumption season gradually got underway, downstream pickup enthusiasm rebounded, pressure from aluminum ingot backlogs eased significantly, and the pace of inventory buildup has already shown signs of slowing...

[SMM Analysis: China’s Aluminum Foil Exports Edged Down 0.74% YoY in January-February, Geopolitical Conflicts Disrupted the Middle East Trade Chain] According to customs data, China’s total aluminum foil exports in January-February 2026 (tariff codes 76071110, 76071120, 76071190, 76071900, 76072000) reached 214,800 mt, down 0.74% YoY from 2025, of which exports were 121,100 mt in January, up 2% YoY, and 93,700 mt in February, down 4% YoY.

[Weekly Operating Rates in the Aluminum Processing Industry: China's Aluminum Processing Sector Sees Modest Growth Amid Peak Season Demand] This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China edged up 1 percentage point WoW to 62.9%.

【SMM Analysis】As of this week, the weekly net profit of Pr-Nd alloy reached 36,812.4 yuan, with a net margin of 4.1%. Compared with last week, net profit increased 134%, setting a new profit high for the past nearly two years. The main reasons behind this were the decline in raw material costs and relatively high metal quotes.

Based on China’s 2025 aluminum wire and cable export data to the Middle East, Saudi Arabia was the largest export destination in the region, with annual exports of 9,426.752 mt, accounting for 31.88 of the Middle East total

SMM News, March 20: Aluminum ingot: On March 20, SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was reported at 24,060, down 430, with a discount of 180 against the current-month contract, narrowing by 5 (unit: yuan/mt). After opening sharply lower in the night session, the SHFE aluminum 04 contract gradually rebounded. Affected by aluminum prices remaining in the doldrums, the South China spot market was relatively firm, and buyers’ overall procurement sentiment was moderate today. Sellers habitually held prices firm, but as Friday coincided with a faster pace of shipments, overall support for firm prices was relatively limited. Today, mainstream transaction prices in the market were concentrated at premiums of -200 yuan/mt to -170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum 04 contract.

SMM News, March 20: In the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center falling sharply from the previous trading day. Affected by the decline in aluminum prices, overall purchasing sentiment rose today, prompting sellers to hold prices firm. Mainstream transaction prices in the market today were concentrated around the average price of the SHFE aluminum 04 contract to +20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 3.2, up 0.06 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.23, up 0.07 MoM. Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged sharply. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall buying sentiment in the central China market was high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and there was no downward trend in market quotations. However, the pass-through of prices to downstream enterprises resulted in relatively limited premiums. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at central China prices plus 10 yuan to plus 60 yuan, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at central China prices plus 30 yuan to plus 40 yuan. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in mainstream consumption regions fell by 3,000 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Wuxi and Gongyi. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory has continued its seasonal buildup. Affected by bullish market sentiment, premiums are expected to maintain a narrowing trend.