South32 reported that its FY2026 aluminum production exceeded previous guidance by 1%, while alumina output met expectations. Brazil aluminum production increased 4.3% YoY to 144,000 tonnes as all three potlines ramped up, while Brazil alumina production rose 5.3% YoY to 1.4 million tonnes. The company also reaffirmed its US$5.6 billion agreement to sell its aluminum business to Alcoa, with the transaction expected to close in H2 2027.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Impact Minerals will release 11.99 million escrowed shares on 27 July that were issued as consideration for acquiring an 80% interest in the Lake Hope High Purity Alumina (HPA) Project in Western Australia. A further 2.37 million shares will remain in escrow until 13 November 2026, with the release representing an increase in the company's free float rather than a new share issuance. Lake Hope is Impact Minerals' flagship HPA project, targeting high-purity alumina production for battery, semiconductor and advanced ceramics markets. The company has been advancing feasibility work and pilot plant development as it seeks to commercialize its proprietary HPA processing technology.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Alcoa lowered its 2026 alumina production guidance by 200,000–300,000 tonnes to 9.5–9.6 million tonnes after Cyclone Narelle and organic contamination in bauxite disrupted operations at its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia. Alumina shipment guidance was also reduced by 300,000–400,000 tonnes, although the refinery has since returned to stable operations. The weaker outlook weighed on investor sentiment, with Alcoa shares falling after second-quarter earnings missed market expectations despite year-on-year profit growth. The company said alumina demand remains strong in China but weaker in the Middle East amid disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

SMM July 16 News: Price Review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,730.17 yuan/mt, down 12.8 yuan/mt WoW. Prices reported in Shandong were 2,710–2,780 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt WoW; in Henan, 2,730–2,800 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt WoW; in Shanxi, 2,750–2,800 yuan/mt, down 15 yuan/mt WoW; in Guangxi, 2,600–2,680 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt WoW; and in Guizhou, 2,760–2,800 yuan/mt, flat WoW. Markets Outside China: As of July 9, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $328/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $32.35/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate near 6.78, equating to a delivered China price of approximately 2,842.29 yuan/mt—112.12 yuan/mt above the alumina index. China Market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China’s total built metallurgical-grade alumina capacity stood at 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 88.86 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate rose 0.66 percentage points WoW to 75.04%. The weekly operating rates by region: Shandong flat WoW at 89.31%; Shanxi flat WoW at 63.46%; Henan up 1.17 percentage points WoW to 57.99%; Guangxi flat WoW at 78.87%; Guizhou up 10.71 percentage points WoW to 86%. Spot market: One transaction was concluded this week. A purchase of 10,000 mt of spot alumina in Xinjiang at a delivered price of around 3,020 yuan/mt. As of Thursday, alumina prices extended their downward trend. Market sentiment was largely bearish, futures prices continued to weaken, and the macro front offered no support, leaving an overall bearish tone. Domestically, alumina refineries previously under maintenance resumed production, further restoring supply and adding to market pressure. Inventory structure showed divergence: SMM data indicated total alumina inventory fell by 63,000 mt WoW to 7.004 million mt, presenting a destocking picture. However, aluminum smelter raw material inventories rebounded, mainly due to the arrival and warehousing of previously in-transit cargoes. Alumina refinery inventories were basically flat, edging up by 1,000 mt to 1.234 million mt. Port inventories plunged by 134,000 mt to 779,000 mt, partly due to some cargoes being discharged into the domestic market and partly because a considerable volume was re-exported outside China. Furthermore, affected by the pace of port unloading, platform and in-transit inventories accumulated by 43,000 mt to 1.335 million mt. In terms of production, this week's alumina production increased by 15,000 mt WoW to 1.704 million mt, with the growth mainly coming from the release of resumed production after maintenance in Guizhou and Henan. Overall, although total inventory declined this week, the supply-side production resumption trend is clear. Subsequent arrivals and in-transit cargoes will still face continuous release pressure. The market faces inventory buildup expectations in the short term, and the supply-demand pattern is weak. Alumina prices are expected to continue falling under pressure in the near term. [Other data beyond publicly available information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

According to Rio Tinto's Q2 announcement, in Q2 2026, its bauxite production was 15.2 million mt, down 3% YoY and up 14% QoQ; alumina production was 2 million mt, up 10% YoY and down 2% QoQ; aluminum production was 840,000 mt, basically flat YoY and up 1% QoQ.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] EGA has restarted alumina production at its Al Taweelah refinery after a 3.5-month shutdown, with output expected to reach 50% of capacity within days and full technical production capability by the end of 2026. The refinery produced 2.4 million tonnes of alumina in 2025, supplying 46% of EGA's alumina requirements. The restart follows the resumption of hydrate production on 24 June and is expected to ease concerns over alumina supply, although the pace of further ramp-up will depend on bauxite supply chain optimisation. Meanwhile, the Al Taweelah smelter has restarted 89 of its 1,262 reduction cells, with full smelter recovery expected to take up to one year.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] MECON has successfully completed the trial run of the BBC-1 and BBC-2 conveyor systems for NALCO’s 1.0 mtpa Stream-5 alumina refinery expansion at Damanjodi, Odisha. The milestone advances the integrated commissioning of the refinery’s bauxite storage, handling, and secondary crushing facilities, bringing the expansion project closer to full commissioning and supporting increased alumina production capacity and operational efficiency.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] EGA has restarted alumina production at its Al Taweelah alumina refinery, with output expected to reach 50% of plant capacity within days and full technical production capability by the end of 2026. The refinery, which produced 2.4 million tonnes of alumina in 2025 and supplied 46% of EGA's alumina requirements, had been shut since March following damage from the regional conflict. The pace of further ramp-up will depend on supply chain conditions and bauxite sourcing optimisation, while the aluminum smelter restart continues independently.

Vedanta Aluminium produced a record 632,000 tonnes of aluminium in Q1 FY27, up 5% YoY, driven by new smelter capacity and higher operating efficiency. BALCO’s aluminium output surged 17% YoY, while alumina production rose 41% YoY to 826,000 tonnes on expansion gains. The company expects BALCO’s expansion to reach full capacity by Q4 and continues strengthening raw material security through new bauxite and coal projects.

Every major aluminum player made a rational bet in H1 2026, Indonesia's smelter wave, the US's Inola project, India's Adani-IHC deal, Alcoa's South32 buy, the Gulf's post-strike rebuild, none of it needing the Middle East war to justify itself, though the war's price spike (LME to $3,546, premiums to multi-year highs) accelerated all of it at once.