Rusal's financial report showed that, affected by its capacity optimization plan, full-year 2025 primary aluminum production fell 1.9% YoY to 3.918 million mt (2024: 3.992 million mt). Alumina production, meanwhile, rose 6.7% YoY to 6.858 million mt. In addition, benefiting from the Guinea expansion project and increased equity interests in refineries in China and India, bauxite production increased 16.2% YoY to 18.453 million mt.

The Middle East turmoil triggered by the joint military strikes launched by the United States and Israel against Iran has become the largest geopolitical black swan for the global primary aluminum market, potentially causing supply disruptions on the order of several million mt while also pushing up smelting costs. Coupled with risk-off market sentiment, aluminum price volatility may be amplified. Going forward, it is necessary to remain vigilant against risks such as escalation of the conflict, strait blockades, and raw material supply cutoffs, as well as further impacts on aluminum prices from macro disruptions, and to respond prudently to operational and investment risks arising from supply chain fluctuations.

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

SMM February 28 News: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on the Iranian capital, Tehran, drawing market attention. The following is an overview of the aluminum industry information in the Iran region: Bauxite & Alumina: There is only one alumina refinery in the Iran region, which also has associated bauxite mining operations. Annual alumina production and bauxite output are approximately 250,000 mt and 650,000 mt, respectively. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it relies on alumina imports year-round. India is the main source, with Iran's alumina imports from India accounting for 40-80% of its total imports. Aluminum: Iran has four aluminum smelters, all currently in operation, with a national average operating rate above 90% and an annual output exceeding 600,000 mt. Its production exceeds domestic consumption, leading to some exports, mainly to Türkiye, China, and other countries. Net exports account for 30-50% of production. Overall, if the local aluminum industry production in Iran collapses due to the geopolitical conflict, overseas aluminum supply is expected to tighten, while the alumina surplus is expected to worsen further. However, there is a considerable spatial distance between Iran's aluminum industry plants and the attacked city of Tehran. The closest is the Arak aluminum plant, nearly 300 km away. Nevertheless, subsequent attention must be paid to whether the geopolitical conflict escalates, affecting other regions, such as near the Strait of Hormuz, or whether it will impact Iran's electricity supply or alumina import supply, consequently affecting electrolytic aluminum production.

【SMM Express News】Lam Dong Province in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has approved adjustments to expand two alumina projects, with a combined investment of VND59.855 trillion (US$2.3 billion), making them the largest projects ever undertaken in the province. The Nhan Co alumina plant expansion in Nhan Co and Kien Duc Communes will add a new production line with a capacity of 1.2 million metric tons per year. The plant is expected to begin operations in 2030 and run for 30 years. The Lam Dong bauxite-aluminum complex expansion in Bao Lam 1 Commune will add a second alumina production line with the same capacity of 1.2 million metric tons per year. Construction is scheduled to finish by the third quarter of 2030, with operations starting in the fourth quarter.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Supreme Alumina Indonesia (a subsidiary of PT Laman Mining) has submitted its Environmental Impact Assessment (AMDAL) for a planned smelter-grade alumina refinery in Ketapang Regency, West Kalimantan. The project targets 2.4 million tonnes per year (tpy) alumina production, requiring ~7.9 million tpy bauxite input. Estimated investment: ~USD 1.5 billion (IDR 25 trillion). Construction targeted to start Q2 2026.

9th Feburary 2026: According to SMM statistics, in January 2026, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production decreased by 3.17% month-on-month and increased by 3.42% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down 0.04 percentage points month-on-month to 79.37%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.10 percentage points. Alumina production saw both increases and decreases during the month. By region: Indonesia: According to SMM research, PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN), approximately 80%-owned by Press Metal Group, is constructing an alumina refinery with an annual capacity of 1–1.2 million tonnes in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The project is expected to gradually commence production in late 2026 or early 2027. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s bauxite quota has not been updated for the time being and is only sufficient to support the country’s existing 7 million tonnes of alumina operating capacity. Taking into account the newly added alumina production capacity totalling 2 million tonnes, bauxite demand stands at approximately 24 million tonnes, exceeding the bauxite quota of 18 million tonnes. The tight supply of bauxite at the raw material end will affect the ramp-up of new production capacity. SMM will continue to monitor bauxite supply and alumina production. Middle East: Chuangyuan Metal’s “Alumina—Aluminium Smelting—Power Plant—Aluminium Deep Processing” integrated green and low-carbon aluminium industrial park project in Saudi Arabia is scheduled to begin construction by the end of 2026. Phase I of the project plans to build 500,000 tonnes of aluminium smelting capacity. The project is expected to have a construction period of 24 months and commence production before the end of 2028. Saudi Arabia currently has only one alumina refinery in operation, with an annual capacity of 2 million tonnes. Apart from meeting the production needs of its associated aluminium smelter, the surplus is mainly exported to neighbouring countries. With the commissioning of Chuangyuan’s aluminium smelting project, the trade flow of alumina in the Saudi region is set to change. Africa: During the month, Ghana completed the review of the proposal for its first large-scale alumina refinery project. The project aims to change the country’s long history of exporting bauxite raw materials and importing high-cost finished products. By constructing a refinery, it will directly supply alumina to the Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO), laying the foundation for the downstream aluminium manufacturing industry and driving the development of related industrial clusters. The project is expected to commence in 2026, with a target to restore VALCO’s annual capacity to over 200,000 tonnes by the end of 2028. United States: On January 15, the United States invested $450 million to rescue its last and only domestic alumina refinery and build a complete gallium supply chain. This strategic initiative aims to secure the supply of critical raw materials needed for the defence, aerospace, and high-tech sectors. The refinery will process imported Jamaican bauxite into alumina, targeting an annual output of over 1 million tonnes of alumina, which would meet nearly 40% of U.S. demand. At the same time, the investment will be used to construct a new gallium extraction production line, with a planned capacity of up to 50 tonnes of gallium per year. Outlook for February 2026: Overseas metallurgical-grade alumina production is expected to decrease by 10.95% month-on-month and increase by 1.34% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be approximately 78.11%, down 0.01 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.84 percentage points year-on-year. The main reasons are the fewer days in February and the fact that some new production capacity is still in the ramp-up stage, leading to a decline in the operating rate.

According to data from the Iranian Minerals and Minerals Development and Innovation Organization (IMIDRO), Iran's alumina production reached 133,483 tons in the first seven months of the Iranian calendar (March 21 - October 22, 2025).

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) bauxite & alumina segment revenue grew 68% YoY to IDR 1.95 trillion. Bauxite production surged 263% to 2.31 million wmt, with sales skyrocketing 1,033% to 1.10 million wmt. Through subsidiary Indonesia Chemical Alumina (ICA), alumina production increased 27% to 134,224 tons, with sales of 134,768 tons (+1%). This growth underscores the segment's significant expansion, contributing to the company's strengthened fundamentals alongside cost optimization and a focus on the domestic market.

[Weekly Metallurgical-Grade Alumina Production Update]According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total existing capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina nationwide was 110.82 million mt/year, and the total operating capacity was 89.01 million mt/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina nationwide rebounded by 1.57 percentage points WoW to 80.32%, mainly due to the completion of maintenance at some refineries, which led to a rebound in operating capacity.