SMM July 2 – Price review: As of Thursday this week, the SMM alumina index stood at 2,693.19 yuan/mt, up 11.9 yuan/mt from last Thursday. Shandong was quoted at 2,770–2,830 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Henan was quoted at 2,790–2,850 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Shanxi was quoted at 2,800–2,870 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; Guangxi was quoted at 2,630–2,730 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday; Guizhou was quoted at 2,760–2,800 yuan/mt, flat from last Thursday. Markets outside China: As of July 2, 2026, FOB Western Australia alumina priced at $330/mt, with ocean freight at $32.3/mt and the USD/CNY selling rate near 6.80. This translates to an approximate delivered-to-China-main-port price of around 2,865.02 yuan/mt, a premium of 90.37 yuan/mt over the alumina index. One overseas spot alumina transaction was reported this week, details as follows: (1) On June 25, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina were traded overseas at $330/mt FOB Western Australia, for August shipment. Chinese market: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, China’s total built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina stood at 118.42 million mt/year, with operating capacity at 87.95 million mt/year. The national weekly alumina operating rate fell 0.23 percentage points WoW to 74.27%. Shandong’s weekly operating rate rose 0.95 percentage points to 89.31%; Shanxi’s rate rose 0.41 percentage points to 64.31%; Henan’s rate fell 3.5 percentage points WoW to 56.83%; Guangxi’s rate rose 0.43 percentage points WoW to 76.13%; Guizhou’s rate rose 3.13 percentage points WoW to 81%. Spot market: Two transactions were concluded this week. Xinjiang procured 10,000 mt of spot alumina at a delivered price of around 3,135 yuan/mt. Gansu procured spot alumina at a delivered price of 3,000 yuan/mt. As of Thursday this week, while alumina prices continued to trend higher, gains had noticeably narrowed, with prices showing signs of weakness over the past two days. The overall center of spot transaction prices continued to shift lower. Inventory: According to SMM, China’s total alumina inventory edged up 1,000 mt WoW to 7.015 million mt, with overall changes relatively small. Structurally, aluminum smelter raw material inventory fell 47,000 mt to 3.364 million mt, mainly as elevated spot alumina prices prompted some smelters to actively draw down high-cost in-factory inventory, leading to a decline. Alumina refinery in-factory inventory rose slightly by 2,000 mt to 1.231 million mt, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by production increases in south China, resulting in limited overall change. Ports, new vessels arrived successively, and this week port inventory increased by 31,000 mt to 891,000 mt. Warrant inventory, affected by invoicing issues and the spread between futures and spot prices, saw weakened willingness to ship to delivery warehouse, decreasing by 9,000 mt to 263,000 mt. In-transit and platform inventory increased by 23,000 mt to 1.267 million mt, mainly due to warrants gradually maturing and converting to spot, coupled with continuous shipments from Guangxi, leading to some accumulation of in-transit cargoes. Overall, the operating pattern of alumina is expected to change little next week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory will remain at current levels. Prices, as the regional alumina mismatch gradually eases, the spot price center is expected to pull back, and the subsequent trend will tend to be under pressure. [Data other than publicly available information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.]

SMM July 2 News: Today the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,450 yuan/mt, reached a high of 22,595 yuan/mt, a low of 22,375 yuan/mt, and closed at 22,400 yuan/mt, down 85 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.38%. Trading volume was 201,300 lots, open interest 280,800 lots, with a daily position change of -6,149 lots. Price remained well below MA5 (22,595), MA10 (23,146.5), MA30 (23,940.83), and MA60 (24,381.92), and the moving average system maintained a standard bearish alignment, with no reversal in the downtrend. On the MACD indicator, DIFF (-504.66) and DEA (-357.65) continued to diverge downward, and the histogram expanded to -294.03, signaling intensifying bearish momentum. Volume of 201,300 lots was below MA5 volume (279,600 lots), marking three consecutive days of contraction, with market trading becoming sluggish. The daily position change of -6,149 lots indicated continued fund outflows. SMM Commentary: Indirect technical talks between the US and Iran made progress, with discussions centering on fund repatriation and strait security. Consultations on the nuclear issue are about to begin. The geopolitical risk premium continued to narrow, while disputes over management rights of the Strait of Hormuz persisted, leaving uncertainty over the resumption of navigation through the strait. The Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, pressuring nonferrous metal prices. Under macro headwinds, aluminum prices in and outside China fell. In the short term, bearish factors dominated, and aluminum prices were expected to remain in the doldrums. Today the alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,781 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,803 yuan/mt, a low of 2,733 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,734 yuan/mt, down 52 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.87%. Trading volume was 245,200 lots, open interest 304,500 lots, with a daily position change of +18,216 lots. Price had completely fallen below MA5 (2,786), MA10 (2,828.4), MA30 (2,885.07), and MA60 (2,820.37), with the moving averages spreading in a bearish alignment and the downtrend accelerating. On the MACD, DIFF (-13.64) turned negative and fell below DEA (2.59), and the histogram expanded to -32.46, indicating a clear strengthening of bearish momentum. Volume of 245,200 lots exceeded MA5 volume (211,900 lots), with the heavy-volume decline accompanied by a daily inflow of 18,216 lots, showing strong willingness by bears to actively add positions and press prices lower. SMM Commentary: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, total domestic alumina inventory edged down WoW. Looking at the inventory structure, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters continued to destock slightly, but restocking willingness was weak due to significant recent price fluctuations and market divergence on the outlook, with end-users mainly on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some plants in the north, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance ends next week. Port inventory continued to build up, with high port arrivals from outside China supplementing spot supply with imported resources and adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remained unchanged. Prior to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy, the market lacked clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from weak destocking to moderate buildup, with the supply-demand balance remaining loose and alumina prices continuing to be in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

SMM July 2: Domestic bauxite: Supply disruptions pushed up domestic ore prices; alumina enterprises' long-term contract procurement prices rose overall Affected by events related to Shanxi coking coal, mining at main domestic bauxite production areas like Shanxi and Henan faced certain disruptions in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Driven by expectations of supply tightening, the price center of domestic ore edged up slightly. Meanwhile, alumina prices remained at relatively high levels, and alumina enterprises had moderate tolerance for raw material price increases, mainly passively accepting current ore prices in the short term. As of today, in Shanxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were approximately 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5 and 60% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 60% alumina content, including VAT, EXW price was 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6 and 53% alumina content, excluding VAT, EXW crusher plant transaction prices were 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported bauxite: Guinea shipments pulled back alongside pending long-term contracts, with imported ore prices consolidating at highs According to data as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totaled 3.3834 million mt, down 409,200 mt from the previous week, with shipments pulling back. Ocean freight rates from Guinea to China fell to a range of $30-32/mt, with the lowest quote at $29/mt. Although ocean freight rates declined significantly from the previous $36/mt, market feedback generally indicated difficulty in securing shipping schedules and matching prices. With quota policies yet to be implemented and negotiations on July long-term contract prices still ongoing, coupled with the impact of Guinea's traditional rainy season, the market returned to a wait-and-see sentiment, and Guinean mines continued to control bauxite shipments. As for Australia, as of June 26, weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totaled 1.0058 million mt, down 224,200 mt from the previous week. Attention should be paid to the shipment pace of Australian mines and changes in port departures. As of June 26, port arrivals of bauxite in China totaled 4.7276 million mt, down 666,900 mt from the previous week. Continuous attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on forward arrival pace and landed costs. Price, there was still no news on the Guinean long-term contract price for July, with sources indicating that negotiations on the relevant long-term contract price were still underway. Meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery bauxite inventories remained high. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at around 95 days, exerting some top pressure on ore prices. For Guinean bauxite, ocean freight rates for spot cargoes to China began to pull back, but with market rumors that the Guinean quota policy was about to be implemented, the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. Guinean bauxite prices continued to consolidate at highs. As of Thursday this week, the FOB quote for Guinean bauxite was $38-40/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the CIF price for Guinean bauxite was reported at $70-72/mt, with the average price flat compared to last Thursday; the SMM imported bauxite index price was reported at $69.98/mt, up $0.02/mt from last Thursday. Going forward, bauxite prices will still depend on various factors including mine costs, Guinea's traditional rainy season, the negotiation of the Guinean long-term contract price for July, and the impact of the Guinean government's bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transaction activities. Overall , domestic ore market prices maintained current levels; meanwhile, domestic alumina refinery inventories remained high (around 95 days), and the price tug-of-war between buyers and sellers continued. The uncertainty of Guinea's July long-term contract price and quota policy, together with the traditional rainy season, also put some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, due to reduced shipments caused by the dual impact of costs and policy, imported ore prices are expected to continue the high-level consolidation pattern. Going forward, the key focus will be on the implementation of Guinea's quota policy and ocean freight rate trends.

SMM, July 1: Today, SHFE aluminum 2608 contract opened at 22,565 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 22,755 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 22,245 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 22,370 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt or 0.95% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 272,000 lots, and open interest stood at 287,000 lots, with a daily position decrease of 4,467 lots. The price has broken below all moving averages, widening the gap with MA5 (22,777) to over 400 points. MA10 (23,299.5), MA30 (24,013.67), and MA60 (24,421.75) are in a standard bearish alignment, accelerating the downtrend. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-470.46) and DEA (-320.9) continue to diverge downward, with the histogram bar widening to -299.12, indicating persistently strengthening bearish momentum and no sign of the decline halting. Trading volume of 272,000 lots was below MA5 (317,300 lots), and the decline on shrinking volume suggests diminishing market participation. The daily position decrease of 4,467 lots indicates some bear profit-taking, but the trend has not yet reversed. SMM Comment: The dispute over administrative rights in the Strait of Hormuz persists, and the resumption of navigation through the strait remains uncertain. The US Fed’s hawkish pivot boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on nonferrous metal prices. Macro headwinds drove aluminum prices lower both in and outside China. Bearish factors dominate in the short term, and aluminum prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,782 yuan/mt, rose to a high of 2,805 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 2,771 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 2,786 yuan/mt, down 4 yuan/mt or 0.14% from the previous trading day. Trading volume was 158,800 lots, and open interest stood at 286,200 lots, with a daily position decrease of 569 lots. The price has broken below MA5 (2,803.6), MA30 (2,835.07), and MA60 (2,822.95), only temporarily holding below MA10 (2,846.4). MA5 has turned downward and is about to cross below MA60, a clear signal of a weakening moving average system. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (-6.18) has turned negative and is below DEA (6.65), with the histogram bar widening to -25.65, spreading downward after a death cross, indicating that short-term bearish momentum is dominant. Trading volume of 158,800 lots was below average volumes across all timeframes, and the decline on shrinking volume suggests a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. SMM Comment: According to SMM statistics, as of last Thursday, China’s total alumina inventory edged down WoW. Inventory structure showed that aluminum smelters’ raw material inventory continued to destock slightly, but due to recent significant price fluctuations and divergent market outlooks, restocking willingness was weak, and end-users mostly stayed on the sidelines. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries decreased, mainly affected by phased maintenance at some northern enterprises, which prioritized consuming in-factory inventory amid production constraints. This impact is expected to gradually fade after maintenance concludes next week. Port inventory, meanwhile, continued to build up, with overseas port arrivals staying high and imported resources supplementing spot supply, adding market pressure. Overall, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Before Guinea’s bauxite quota policy is implemented, the market lacks clear bullish drivers. Next week, inventory is expected to shift from mild destocking to slight buildup, supply and demand will remain loose, and alumina prices will continue to consolidate in the doldrums. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.]

In the short term, high raw material prices provide solid cost support for aluminum fluoride, but bearish constraints from weak downstream fluorine chemicals and the decline in long-term hydrofluoric acid contracts are also in play. Amid the tug-of-war, aluminum fluoride prices in July have little room for significant rise or fall, and the market will continue to consolidate at highs within a range.

SMM, June 30 According to SMM statistics, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina output in June 2026 fell by around 6.0% YoY and 5.5% MoM. Supply-side disruptions in the overseas alumina market became more evident compared with May. On the one hand, affected by tensions in the Middle East, production and shipment schedules at some producers have yet to fully recover. On the other hand, weather-related disruptions and natural gas supply issues in Australia continued to weigh on local alumina output and shipments. By company and region, Alcoa said that due to the impact of Cyclone Narelle in Australia, LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. As a result, the company expects its alumina shipments in Q2 to decrease by around 120,000 mt compared with Q1, while the disruption is expected to increase Q2 production costs by around $30 million. In addition, due to tensions in the Middle East, fuel costs at the company’s São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also increased. Alcoa’s Western Australia alumina operations are currently under significant pressure from weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades and rising energy costs. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. During the EU’s new round of discussions on sanctions against Russia in June, exports of alumina from Ireland’s Aughinish Alumina to Russia remained under scrutiny. Public reports showed that alumina exports were not included in the latest EU sanctions package for the time being. However, if sanctions are tightened further, this could affect European alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape. Entering June, with some Malaysian bauxite cargoes arriving, feedstock availability improved at certain alumina refineries in Indonesia, creating room for a subsequent recovery in output. However, Indonesia’s bauxite quota policy and logistics stability still need to be closely monitored. In addition, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan also discussed cooperation in alumina supply and aluminium product trade in June. Under the proposed arrangement, Azerbaijan would supply alumina to Tajikistan, while Tajikistan would export aluminium products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation is expected to have limited impact on overseas alumina output in the short term, but it reflects ongoing regional aluminium industry chain coordination and adjustments in trade flows. Looking ahead to July, overseas metallurgical-grade alumina supply is expected to see a recovery, with output likely to rise by around 4.5% MoM. On the one hand, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased following the arrival of bauxite cargoes, and output is expected to recover gradually. On the other hand, weather-related and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing at the margin, which may support the recovery of previously affected production and shipment schedules. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, energy cost pressure in Australia, and Indonesia’s bauxite quota issues may continue to disrupt the recovery of overseas supply. Overall, overseas alumina output is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains relatively high.

SMM, June 30: According to SMM statistics, total production of metallurgical-grade alumina outside China in June 2026 fell about 6.0% YoY and about 5.5% MoM. In June, supply-side disruptions in the alumina market outside China became more pronounced compared with May. On one hand, due to the situation in the Middle East, production and shipment paces at some enterprises had not yet fully recovered; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia persisted, weighing on local alumina production and shipments. By enterprise and region, Alcoa said that, due to the impact of the earlier Cyclone Narelle in Australia, the LNG supply to its Pinjarra alumina refinery in Western Australia was temporarily disrupted. It expected Q2 alumina shipments to be about 120,000 mt lower than in Q1, and the related disruption was expected to push up Q2 production costs by approximately $30 million. In addition, due to the Middle East situation, fuel costs at the company's São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil also rose. Currently, Alcoa's Western Australian alumina operations are still facing multiple pressures, including weak alumina prices, declining bauxite grades, and rising energy costs, and its overall operations are clearly under pressure. In Europe, geopolitical risks continued to escalate. In June, during discussions on a new round of EU sanctions against Russia, the issue of alumina exports from Aughinish Alumina in Ireland to Russia continued to attract attention. Public reports indicated that the latest EU sanctions package did not yet include alumina exports within its restrictions, but if sanctions are further tightened later, it could affect alumina trade flows and the regional supply landscape in Europe. Since June, with the arrival of some Malaysian bauxite, raw material supply at some local alumina refineries has improved, leaving some room for production recovery, but issues related to bauxite export quotas in Indonesia and logistics stability still require close monitoring. Additionally, in June, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan explored cooperation on alumina supply and aluminum product trade, under which Azerbaijan plans to supply alumina to Tajikistan and Tajikistan would export aluminum products to Azerbaijan. This cooperation will have limited impact on alumina production outside China in the near term, but it reflects that regional aluminum industry chain coordination and trade flow adjustments are still advancing. Looking ahead to July, metallurgical-grade alumina supply outside China is expected to see a recovery-driven increase, with production rebounding about 4.5% MoM. On one hand, with the arrival of bauxite at ports, raw material constraints at some Indonesian alumina refineries have eased, and output is expected to gradually recover; on the other hand, weather and natural gas supply disruptions in Australia are easing marginally, and earlier affected production and shipment paces may recover. However, geopolitical risks in the Middle East, uncertainty over EU sanctions against Russia, cost pressure from energy in Australia, and Indonesia's bauxite quota issues may still disrupt the supply recovery outside China. Overall, alumina production outside China is expected to rebound slightly in July, but supply-side uncertainty remains high. (The above information is derived from market data collection and a comprehensive evaluation by the SMM research team. The information provided in this article is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and should not use this to replace their own independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

Alcoa Corporation expects alumina shipments from its Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia to decline by approximately 120,000 tonnes in the second quarter compared with the first quarter after Cyclone Narelle disrupted LNG supplies in March. The refinery, which has an annual alumina production capacity of 4.7 million tonnes, is expected to incur an additional USD30 million in production costs during the quarter. Alcoa also expects around USD15 million in extra fuel costs at its São Luís alumina refinery in Brazil due to ongoing Middle East tensions. The company noted that its alumina business is facing pressure from weak alumina prices and lower-quality bauxite supplies in Western Australia. Following the update, Alcoa shares fell 9.5%.

SMM, June 1， According to SMM data , the average all-in cost (tax-inclusive) of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in May 2026 fell 1.9% month-on-month (MoM) and 2.2% year-on-year (YoY), primarily driven by declines in alumina prices and electricity prices during the period. Under the pressure of high inventory in May, domestic aluminum prices trended weak. The SMM A00 spot monthly average price (April 26 – May 25) edged down 0.8% MoM, while electrolytic aluminum profit margins expanded by RMB 110/mt to RMB 8,413/mt, with average profitability up 126.4% YoY. Based on monthly average price calculations, 100% of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was profitable in May. Breaking down the cost components: Alumina feedstock: According to SMM data, the SMM Alumina Index averaged RMB 2,674/mt in May (April 26 – May 25), down 2.3% MoM. Although average daily alumina output edged slightly lower within the month, alumina market fundamentals remained relatively loose amid the impact of overseas alumina import supply, compounded by the gradual ramp-up of new projects in Guangxi. Spot alumina prices lacked upside momentum. Entering June, as newly commissioned capacity continues to ramp up and maintenance outages are progressively completed, domestic alumina output is expected to increase, with spot prices likely to consolidate sideways for the most part. Auxiliary materials: In May, pre-baked anodes and fluoride salts saw price increases supported by cost-side factors, pushing up auxiliary material costs. Entering June, the pass-through of earlier cost-side weakness, combined with a relatively loose supply landscape, is expected to lead to a modest decline in pre-baked anode prices. On the fluoride salt front, downstream producers have limited capacity to absorb high prices, although elevated costs still provide a degree of price support; amid this tug-of-war, fluoride salt prices are expected to slip modestly MoM. Overall, electrolytic aluminum auxiliary material costs are projected to decline in June. Electricity prices: Power prices fell MoM in May, primarily because the flood season is approaching, with electricity prices in water-rich southern regions declining notably, significantly reducing electrolytic aluminum power costs. Entering June, coal price dynamics may push electricity prices slightly higher in some provinces; however, with the southern flood season underway, power prices are expected to continue declining overall. On balance, electrolytic aluminum power costs are expected to remain broadly stable. Overall , the SMM weighted-average all-in cost (tax-inclusive) of the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry edged lower in May 2026. Electrolytic aluminum costs in June are expected to remain relatively steady, with the average forecast at around RMB 15,800–16,200/mt .

Overall market trading activity was sluggish. At month-end, the market maintained a steady posture, watching for the outcome of the new round of aluminum fluoride tender prices. However, as the raw material side showed signs of easing, prices are expected to be slightly under pressure next month. Going forward, close attention should continue to be paid to dynamic changes on the raw material cost side, as well as marginal adjustments in the procurement pace of downstream aluminum enterprises.