PT Inalum, Indonesia's state-owned aluminum giant, called on the government to suspend the construction of new alumina and aluminum plants on Tuesday, citing concerns about oversupply and pressure on the country's bauxite reserves. Melati Sarnita, CEO of Inalum, pointed out that Inalum is concerned that the aluminum industry will face similar problems to the nickel industry after rapid growth, such as oversupply affecting global prices and environmental issues. Inalum cited market data to estimate that once all the alumina projects under construction start operating, Indonesia's alumina capacity will increase from the current about 9 million tons to 29.8 million tons. Melati said that once all projects are completed, the original aluminum capacity is expected to increase from the current

28th of Feburary: According to SMM statistics, in February 2026, overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 12.41% month-on-month and 3.66% year-on-year; the average operating rate of overseas alumina enterprises edged down by 0.01 percentage point month-on-month to 76.17%, a decrease of 2.67 percentage points year-on-year. Overall, overseas alumina production was relatively stable during the month. By region: Asia: On February 6, Lam Dong Province in Vietnam approved the expansion plans for two alumina projects under Vinacomin, with a total investment of VND 59.855 trillion (approximately USD 2.3 billion). One is to add a production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons at the Nhan Co alumina plant in Dak Nong Province, which is expected to be commissioned in 2030 with an operating period of 30 years. The other is to expand the Tan Rai alumina plant in Lam Dong Province, planning to build a second production line with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons. Construction is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2030 and operation to begin in the fourth quarter. According to SMM research, Vietnam's local bauxite resources are relatively abundant, providing stable raw material support for the commissioning of these projects. It is expected that they will have significant cost advantages, potentially enhancing the export competitiveness of alumina in the long term. Europe: In order to reduce the negative environmental impact of road transportation, Alteo alumina plant has partnered with HES Fos, planning to relocate most of its logistics operations from the port of Marseille to the port of Fos-sur-Mer. Under the agreement, HES Fos will be responsible for unloading ships, storing hydrated alumina, and subsequently transporting it to Alteo's plant in Gardanne. In the future, HES Fos will renovate an existing clinker warehouse specifically for storing hydrated alumina to ensure the smooth operation of the supply chain. The construction of this dedicated facility has entered the execution phase and is expected to be put into operation in 2029, providing reliable support for the logistics and storage of alumina in the long term. Australia: On February 13, Australian company Alpha HPA announced the groundbreaking of the second phase of its planned world's largest single-site high-purity alumina refinery. The project will utilize the company's proprietary solvent extraction and refining technology to commercially produce high-purity alumina products with a purity of 99.99%, providing key raw materials for industries such as global lithium batteries, LED lights, and semiconductor manufacturing. Middle East: On February 28, the conflict between Iran and Israel escalated, with an attack on Tehran, the capital of Iran. Currently, no shutdowns of alumina plants in the region have been reported. According to SMM statistics, Iran has only one alumina plant, which is equipped with bauxite production capacity. If geopolitical conflicts further intensify, the plant's production could be affected, and the possibility of output cuts or shutdowns cannot be ruled out. Data show that Iran's annual alumina output is about 250,000 tons, and bauxite output is about 650,000 tons. Its alumina production cannot meet the domestic demand for electrolytic aluminum production, and it has long relied on imports, with India being the main source. Alumina imports from India account for 40% to 80% of Iran's total imports. Outlook for March 2026: Overseas production of metallurgical-grade alumina is expected to increase by 12.65% month-on-month and decrease slightly by 2.38% year-on-year; the operating rate is expected to be 77.45%, up 0.01 percentage point month-on-month and down 1.61 percentage points year-on-year. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of changes in the international political situation on alumina production.

SMM February 28 news: According to SMM data, the average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in February 2026 fell 0.9% MoM and dropped 5.7% YoY. During the period, alumina raw material costs and auxiliary material costs declined, and the total cost pulled back slightly. The average SMM A00 spot price (January 26–February 25) in February was largely stable, and aluminum profit margins expanded to 7,707 yuan/mt. If the industry calculates based on the monthly average price, 100% of domestic operating aluminum capacity was profitable in February. Cost breakdown: Alumina raw material side : SMM data showed the average SMM alumina index in February was 2,621 yuan/mt (January 26–February 25), down 1.7% MoM. Production cuts at alumina plants during the month shifted inventory to destocking, but after the holiday, some aluminum smelters proactively reduced inventory, resulting in actual demand being lower than theoretical demand. Prices saw only a slight rebound by month-end, and the monthly average price dropped MoM. Entering March, alumina prices face both bullish and bearish factors. On one hand, operating alumina capacity is expected to decline MoM; on the other hand, aluminum smelters’ proactive destocking is expected to reduce demand. Overall, alumina raw material prices are projected to change by a relatively small margin. Auxiliary material market side : Both prebaked anode and fluoride salt prices pulled back in February. In March, prebaked anode and aluminum fluoride prices are expected to maintain a slight downward trend, and auxiliary material costs are projected to decrease. Electricity price side : Electricity prices were generally stable in February, with slight declines in some regions, leading to a small drop in the national average aluminum power cost. Entering March, electricity prices are expected to remain largely stable, and aluminum power costs are projected to hold steady. Overall, SMM expects the weighted average tax-inclusive full cost of China's aluminum industry in March 2026 to be largely stable, averaging around 15,750–16,150 yuan/mt.

【SMM Express News】Lam Dong Province in Vietnam’s Central Highlands has approved adjustments to expand two alumina projects, with a combined investment of VND59.855 trillion (US$2.3 billion), making them the largest projects ever undertaken in the province. The Nhan Co alumina plant expansion in Nhan Co and Kien Duc Communes will add a new production line with a capacity of 1.2 million metric tons per year. The plant is expected to begin operations in 2030 and run for 30 years. The Lam Dong bauxite-aluminum complex expansion in Bao Lam 1 Commune will add a second alumina production line with the same capacity of 1.2 million metric tons per year. Construction is scheduled to finish by the third quarter of 2030, with operations starting in the fourth quarter.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Vietnam's Lam Dong Provincial People's Committee has approved two major bauxite-alumina expansion projects for Vietnam Coal and Mineral Industry Group (Vinacomin), with a combined investment of nearly VND 60 trillion (~US$2.3 billion). Nhan Co Alumina Plant Expansion (Nhan Co & Kien Duc communes): ~VND 29,986 billion (~US$1.16B). Adds a new 1.2 million tpy alumina line on 870 hectares. Targets international-quality alumina for domestic use and export. 30-year operating period; operations start 2030. Lam Dong Bauxite-Aluminum Complex Expansion (Bao Lam 1 commune): ~VND 29,869 billion (~US$1.15B). Adds a second 1.2 million tpy alumina line on 20.79 hectares. Construction: Q2 2025 to Q3 2030; operations begin Q4 2030.

In October 2024, Guinean customs authorities suspended bauxite exports from Guinea Alumina Corporation (GAC), a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA), due to unresolved issues with the Guinean government, chiefly around concerns over GAC’s failure to progress on its commitment to build a domestic alumina refinery.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment on May 6 Futures Market: On the last trading day before the holiday, the most-traded alumina 2509 futures contract opened at RMB 2,715/mt, with a high of RMB 2,741/mt, a low of RMB 2,709/mt, and closed at RMB 2,729/mt, down RMB 3/mt or 0.10%. Open interest stood at 262,000 lots. Ore: As of April 30, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $78.56/mt, down $1.12/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $77/mt, down $1/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $80/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $72/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. Industry Updates: Overseas Alumina Transactions: On April 30, 30,000 mt of alumina was traded overseas at a transaction price of $348/mt FOB Western Australia, with a shipment scheduled for late May. Weekly Alumina Production Dynamics: According to SMM data, as of Thursday this week, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in China was 109.22 million mt/year, with a total operating capacity of 87.1 million mt/year, up 3.48 million mt/year WoW. This was mainly due to the commissioning and ramp-up of some new capacities, coupled with the completion of maintenance at some alumina refineries and the resumption of production. The national weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.05 percentage points WoW to 79.75%. Bauxite Port Inventories: According to SMM statistics on April 30, the total bauxite inventories at nine domestic ports were 20.19 million mt, up 2.06 million mt from the previous week. Alumina Port Inventories: According to SMM statistics on April 30, the total alumina inventories at domestic ports were 19,000 mt, down 36,000 mt from the previous week. Press Metal recently announced a strategic cooperation with three local enterprises in Indonesia to jointly build a modern alumina refinery in West Kalimantan, Indonesia. The first phase of the project is planned to have an annual capacity of 1-1.2 million mt, with plans to double the capacity in the future, aiming to become a core player in the upstream of the Southeast Asian aluminum industry chain. Press Metal invested MYR 1.04 billion (approximately RMB 1.56 billion) to acquire an 80% stake in the joint venture company PT Kalimantan Alumina Nusantara (KAN) in seven phases. PT Alakasa Alumina Refinery (AAR) and PT Dinamika Sejahtera Mandiri (DSM) hold 19.77% and 0.23% stakes, respectively. According to Indonesian media reports, Mind ID stated that the first phase of the 1 million mt alumina project at the SGAR alumina refinery in Indonesia has been fully commissioned in Q1 2025. Currently, the second phase of the 1 million mt alumina project at the SGAR alumina refinery has been initiated. Irhamsyah Mahendra, CEO of the alumina plant, revealed that the first batch of alumina produced by the SGAR alumina refinery will be shipped to the Asahan aluminum smelter in Kuala Tanjung, North Sumatra, by the end of April 2025. The Asahan aluminum smelter currently has a total annual operating capacity of 275,000 mt, with all products prioritized to meet domestic demand in Indonesia. Basis Daily Report: According to SMM data, on April 30, the SMM Alumina Index had a premium of RMB 171/mt against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily Report: On April 30, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 6,317 mt from the previous trading day to 271,400 mt. In the Shandong region, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,706 mt from the previous trading day to 601 mt. In the Henan region, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 4,501 mt. In the Guangxi region, the total registered alumina warrants remained unchanged from the previous trading day at 36,600 mt. In the Gansu region, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,506 mt from the previous trading day to 18,000 mt. In the Xinjiang region, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 2,105 mt from the previous trading day to 211,700 mt. Overseas Market: As of April 30, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $348/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $20.50/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.29. This price translates to approximately RMB 3,114/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is RMB 218/mt higher than the domestic alumina price. The alumina import window remained closed. Summary: With the commissioning of new capacities and the resumption of production from maintenance capacities, the operating capacity of alumina has rebounded significantly, with a WoW increase of 3.48 million mt/year in the last week before the holiday. In the short term, some alumina refineries have plans for maintenance and production cuts, but at the same time, new alumina capacities will further ramp up production, and the operating capacity of alumina may show slight fluctuations. On the cost side, caustic soda prices have remained largely stable, while bauxite prices have decreased, leading to a decline in alumina costs and alleviating the loss pressure on alumina refineries. Overall, the tightening of alumina spot supply caused by the concentration of maintenance and production cuts in the early stage is expected to ease, and short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and not rely solely on this information. Any decisions made by clients are independent of SMM.]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 4.17 Futures market: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at 2,835 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,835 yuan/mt, a low of 2,791 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,816 yuan/mt, up 1 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.04%, with an open interest of 110,000 lots. Ore side: As of April 16, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at $88.7/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $88/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $87/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $81/mt, flat from the previous trading day. Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on April 16, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of 66 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30 am. Warrant report: On April 16, the total registered alumina warrant volume increased by 3,896 mt to 295,200 mt compared to the previous trading day, with Shandong region's total registered alumina warrant volume flat at 3,307 mt, Henan region's total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 1,201 mt to 12,000 mt, Guangxi region's total registered alumina warrant volume decreased by 4,204 mt to 43,200 mt, Gansu region's total registered alumina warrant volume flat at 17,100 mt, and Xinjiang region's total registered alumina warrant volume increased by 9,301 mt to 219,500 mt. Overseas market: As of April 16, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $21.10/mt, and the USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.34, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately 2,992 yuan/mt, 122 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. Summary: Last week, alumina plant maintenance events occurred intensively, with operating capacities of several companies declining; meanwhile, some alumina capacities that started maintenance in March ended their maintenance periods, leading to a slight rebound in operating capacities. Overall, as of last Thursday, the national alumina operating capacity dropped to 84.82 million mt/year, down 1.91 million mt/year from the previous week. As of last Thursday, the aluminum operating capacity increased to 43.9 million mt/year, with the theoretical alumina demand operating capacity at 84.51 million mt/year, tightening alumina supply in the short term. However, last week, alumina raw material inventories at aluminum plants totaled 2.67 million mt, up 50,000 mt from the previous week; combined with alumina inventories at delivery warehouses nearing 300,000 mt, alumina inventory pressure remains, and prices may struggle to rebound significantly in the short term, with alumina prices likely to remain in the doldrums in the short term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]

【SMM Aluminum Futures Review: Tariff Disturbances and Inventory Destocking Compete, Aluminum Prices Maintained a Fluctuating Downward Trend Today】On April 16, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract slightly fell by 0.10%, closing at 19,545 yuan/mt. On the macro front, the rebound in the US dollar index and the ongoing tariff disputes between the US and Europe continued to pressure LME aluminum. However, domestic aluminum inventory continued to destock, with inventory in three regions dropping to 586,700 mt, down 9,200 mt MoM, supporting aluminum prices. On the supply side, production restrictions and reduced arrivals limited capacity, while on the demand side, the price correction stimulated a rebound in end-user orders, and the destocking trend may continue. The most-traded alumina 2505 contract fell by 0.35%, as plant maintenance and resumption of operations led to slight fluctuations in operating capacity. However, increased aluminum capacity and delivery inventory pressure restrained price rebounds. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by macro easing and destocking, while alumina may maintain a weak trend. Subsequent attention should be paid to tariff policies and export dynamics.

Sichuan Tianfu New Creation Group recently announced the development of an alumina project in Central Kalimantan Province, Indonesia, through its newly established subsidiary, PT Progressive Indonesia Alumina (PIA). PIA was registered as a special purpose vehicle (SPV), with the project site located in Sampit Town, Central Kalimantan Province. The first phase of the project will involve the construction of a smelter-grade alumina plant with an annual production capacity of 1 million mt, along with supporting logistics, energy, and plant infrastructure networks, with a total investment expected to exceed $540 million. The project is planned to cover a vertically integrated industry chain from bauxite mining to refined production, supporting Indonesia's national goal of reducing its reliance on bauxite ore exports. Sichuan Tianfu New Creation Group, founded in 2003, operates in the fields of metallurgy, oil and gas drilling, and lithium battery materials, with annual revenue of nearly $1 billion and over 2,000 employees worldwide. This alumina project marks its first foray into the deep processing of mineral resources in Indonesia.