SMM August 12: A sudden supply-side disruption has significantly altered the short-term supply-demand balance in the alumina market outside China. On August 11, Hydro’s Alunorte alumina refinery in Brazil was forced to activate emergency response measures due to a natural gas supply outage, cutting alumina production to 50% of capacity. The refinery has an existing capacity of 6.3 million mt/year, and after the 50% cut, the operating capacity fell to around 3.15 million mt/year, equivalent to a monthly production loss of approximately 250,000 mt—a non-negligible impact on the overall supply landscape outside China. Before this unexpected production cut, the alumina market outside China was in a slight surplus: in July, global alumina supply (excluding China) exceeded demand by about 486,000 mt, reflecting a loose supply-demand pattern. However, with Alunorte’s sharp output reduction, the August overseas surplus is expected to narrow quickly to around 177,000 mt. It is worth further noting that alumina prices outside China still lag behind domestic levels. This price spread means some alumina needs to be transshipped and repackaged in China before it can be exported, adding extra packaging and logistics costs. At the same time, China still maintains a net-import pattern for alumina, with monthly net imports averaging around 100,000 mt. Taken together, the actual surplus available for supply outside China will be further squeezed to merely about 70,000 mt. The supply-demand balance will abruptly shift from relatively loose to a tight balance, significantly elevating the risk of regional structural shortages, and alumina prices outside China are highly likely to find upward support in the short term. However, it must be objectively recognized that the price rally is not solely driven by Alunorte’s production cuts. Another structural support factor exists in overseas markets: due to strait passage issues, demand for bagged alumina in the Middle East is relatively urgent, while bulk alumina cannot effectively meet local supply because of transportation constraints. This situation has prompted some traders to first sell bulk alumina and then turn to purchase bagged alumina to fill the gap. Bagged alumina itself commands a notable premium—its FOB price is typically more than $20/mt higher than that of bulk alumina. This extra packaging and logistics cost has, to some extent, pushed up the overall price center in the regional market, serving as a secondary support for near-term alumina price strength outside China. Even if short-term sentiment and supply-demand fundamentals converge to drive prices higher, the upside room for alumina prices outside China may remain relatively limited. The core reason is that India still has plans to launch new capacity—a 1 million mt/year alumina project is expected to gradually advance its expansion in Q4 this year and Q1 next year, which will effectively supplement market supply at that time. Therefore, although supply was tight in Q3 due to production cuts at Alunorte, from a full-year perspective, the supply tightness in Q4 will ease noticeably, making it difficult to support a sustained sharp price increase. More attention should be paid to the uncertainty of disturbances on the time dimension. Currently, the duration of Alunorte’s natural gas supply issue remains unclear. If it is properly resolved in the short term, the impact of the production cuts will be relatively manageable; however, if the repair cycle is prolonged, the supply deficit outside China in Q3 will persist. Early signs of tight spot supply have already emerged in some regions. With the combination of fundamentals and sentiment, the likelihood of alumina prices outside China holding up well increases. Looking further ahead, new alumina capacity in Indonesia will be released gradually next year, and the global alumina supply landscape will evolve towards a looser balance, putting downward pressure on the long-term price center. In summary, the impact of this Alunorte production cut event on the alumina market outside China is mainly concentrated in Q3 this year. Short-term prices are expected to rise due to expectations of tightening supply-demand and regionally structural cost increases. However, constrained by the expectations of long-term growth from India’s new capacity about to be commissioned, as well as the continuous loosening pressure from capacity releases in Indonesia in Q4 this year and early next year, the current price rise reflects more of a periodic rebound rather than a trend reversal. It is expected that alumina prices outside China will consolidate on a strong note in Q3, and from Q4 to early next year, as new capacity comes online, the price center is likely to pull back gradually. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by SMM’s research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment advice. Clients should make prudent decisions and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.) Data source: SMM

On August 10, 2026, Ruizhi New Energy announced the completion of a several‑tens‑of‑millions RMB Pre‑A+ exclusive financing round, fully funded by Shanghai Chenyao Yichuang Investment Fund. Founded in 2021, Ruizhi is the first new‑energy‑battery technology commercialisation spin‑off from Northwestern Polytechnical University, focusing on two core products: active functional separators and membrane‑form solid‑state electrolytes.

In its half-year results announcement, UAE-based EGA unveiled the production resumption timeline for the Al Taweelah smelter, which was forced to shut down following an attack on 28 March. 18% of the plant’s total 1,262 reduction cells have been restarted. Output is projected to return to pre-incident levels in Q1 2027. Capital expenditure for the recovery is estimated at USD 400 million; most spending will be incurred in 2026, with the remainder falling into 2027. The newly built recycling plant is currently operating at 10% capacity, targeting full production by end-Q4 2026. Output at the alumina refinery fell sharply year-on-year in H1 2026. Its capacity recovered to 50% of pre-incident levels in early July.

In its half-year results announcement, UAE-based EGA unveiled the production resumption timeline for the Al Taweelah smelter, which was forced to shut down following an attack on 28 March. 18% of the plant’s total 1,262 reduction cells have been restarted. Output is projected to return to pre-incident levels in Q1 2027. Capital expenditure for the recovery is estimated at USD 400 million; most spending will be incurred in 2026, with the remainder falling into 2027. The newly built recycling plant is currently operating at 10% capacity, targeting full production by end-Q4 2026. Output at the alumina refinery fell sharply year-on-year in H1 2026. Its capacity recovered to 50% of pre-incident levels in early July.

SMM News on August 12: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.27%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.93%. SHFE lead rose 0.25%. SHFE zinc rose 0.7%. SHFE tin rose 1.44%. SHFE nickel fell 0.16%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract rose 2.97%. The most-traded silicon metal contract edged up. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 3.69%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.28%, rebar rose 0.37%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Stainless steel rose 0.24%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.17%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.75%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:46, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.27%, and LME tin rose 1.14%. LME zinc rose 0.5%. Gains in LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME nickel were all within 0.3%. Precious metals: as of 11:46, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.69%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 1.22%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 0.18%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 1.09%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping contract rose 1.44% to 1,585.5 points. As of 11:46 on August 12, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to surge, while the spot market in South China faced pressure from the “three mountains.” First, high absolute prices combined with high premiums in reality prompted suppliers to rush to sell more to cash out... Macro front China: [PBOC reverse repo operations recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day] The PBOC conducted no reverse repo operations today. As 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it recorded a net withdrawal of 5 billion yuan on the day. [Guangdong power load hit a new high for the fourth time this year] At 13:47 on August 11, power load on the Guangdong power grid hit a new high for the fourth time this year, reaching 175.7 million kW, up 6.53% YoY. At present, Guangdong’s power supply is stable and orderly. On the same day, loads in cities including Yangjiang, Shantou, Jieyang, and Chaozhou within Guangdong Province hit record highs. ​​​(Guangdong Fabu) [C919 domestically produced large aircraft officially began operating international commercial routes] Starting today (the 12th), Air China’s Beijing–Ulaanbaatar route to the capital of Mongolia will be operated by the domestically produced C919 large aircraft, marking the official launch of international scheduled commercial route operations for the domestically produced large aircraft. (CCTV News) US dollar: As of 11:46, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 99.87. The market awaits the upcoming US July CPI data, hoping to find clues on the Fed's rate path. According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in September is 52.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 48.0%. The probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in October is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 12.2%. (Jinshi Data APP) The Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos said that the market will focus on the MoM change in the July inflation data to be released on Wednesday, as an increasing number of FOMC members indicate that inflation readings in the coming months will determine whether they believe the forecast of "inflation pulling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the Fed's new chair Warsh recently dismissed this framework of linking policy-sensitive forecast revisions to high-frequency data. He previously stated that he does not believe the Fed's current "data-dependent" policy has much practical value. Furthermore, Nick added that the working group established by Warsh seems in part to help construct a framework to replace the old one. However, until the new framework is clear, the old framework appears to remain in operation. Glenmede strategists said regarding the US July CPI that investors are anticipating another relatively mild inflation report, with headline CPI expected to rise 3.4% YoY, while core price pressures remain manageable. As US-Iran tensions escalate, oil prices rose further in July, and the energy sector could once again bring pressure. However, the market reaction this time has been more stable, thanks to proactive measures and strategic reserve releases that maintained oil supply stability. The Fed has ample time before its next meeting to assess two inflation reports, giving it more time to evaluate whether energy pressures remain contained or begin to broaden, a distinction that could well influence future policy direction. Other currencies: According to foreign media reports, yen traders are ramping up options market activity ahead of key US inflation data, and amid a lack of consensus on the yen's future direction, they are using derivatives to enhance trading flexibility. The one-week implied volatility for USD/JPY rose for a second straight session on Wednesday, after the gauge had declined for five consecutive sessions. The reason was that traders were positioning ahead of the release of the US inflation report. The data was expected to influence the US Fed's monetary policy outlook and the US dollar's trajectory. Additionally, volatility in longer-dated options also edged up. The rise in volatility reflected a divergence in market views. For short tenors, the market remained concerned about the possibility of joint US-Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market, so USD/JPY put options continued to trade at a premium over call options, showing that investors were seeking protection against a sudden drop in the exchange rate. However, over longer tenors, investors continued to buy call options to bet on a renewed rally in USD/JPY. (Jin10 Data APP) Data-wise: Figures to be released today include the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany's July CPI MoM final reading. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings call, MSCI will announce its August index review, the EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will release its monthly Oil Market Report (the specific release times for the monthly reports are to be determined, typically published around 18-21 Beijing Time). Crude oil: As of 11:46, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 1% and Brent up 0.92%. Uncertainty over the US-Iran deal outlook supported prices. Iran’s state television (IRIB), citing an advisor to the Supreme Leader, reported: The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until relevant conditions are met. (Jin10 Data APP) Iran's Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad stated on the 11th that Iran was repairing natural gas production facilities damaged by the war, with daily capacity planned to rebound to 95 million m³ by the end of September. Paknejad said that reconstruction work on four damaged gas processing facilities was progressing rapidly, contractors had commenced work, and completion was anticipated ahead of schedule, restoring pre-war capacity. Earlier reports indicated that Iran's daily natural gas production had decreased by about 230 million m³ since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran. (Jin10 Data APP) The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicated that, due to persistently severe restrictions on crude oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz, the degree of global oil supply disruption was greater than previously expected, prompting the EIA to raise its future oil price forecasts. The EIA projects that the 2026 Brent spot price will average $87/bbl, up from the prior forecast of $82/bbl ; and that the Q3 2026 Brent average will be about $85/bbl, with prices in the coming months largely sustaining levels seen in the first week of August. EIA says its latest forecast assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not caused additional production halts, and severe shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz will persist into August . EIA expects that most Middle Eastern crude oil production will return close to pre-conflict average levels by early 2027. However, some supply disruptions are expected to persist until the end of 2027, at a scale of around 600,000 barrels per day. The average price for 2027 is forecast at $69/barrel, up from $65/barrel previously. (Wallstreetcn) Additionally, Russia has started importing gasoline from the distant Indian market, after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries caused a severe domestic fuel supply shortage. According to shipping data provider Kpler, this marks the first time Russia has imported motor gasoline from a South Asian country. Kpler said the first gasoline cargo arrived on August 5, and more shipments may arrive in Russia in the future. These fuel volumes were shipped via a series of tankers linked to Russia, and were transshipped near Egyptian waters before heading to Russia. Kpler's chief analyst Sumit Ritolia said, "The emergence of Indian gasoline supply is particularly noteworthy." He said these cargoes from India, along with continued gasoline imports from Belarus and other neighboring markets, highlight the severity of the current domestic gasoline supply-demand imbalance in Russia, and also reflect how declining refinery operating rates are reshaping traditional Russian oil product trade flows. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market at a Glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM News, August 12: Metals Market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE lead closed flat at 15,860 yuan/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.82%, SHFE aluminum gained 0.58%, and other metals saw slight fluctuations in their % changes. The most-traded alumina contract rose 0.93%, and cast aluminum ticked up 0.42%. In the ferrous metals sector overnight, all contracts gained except stainless steel. Stainless steel fell 0.07%, iron ore rose 0.76%, rebar and hot-rolled coil both edged up within 0.5%, while coking coal and coke gained 1.64% and 1.01%, respectively. In precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.18% overnight, while COMEX silver fell 0.63%. On the domestic front, SHFE gold dropped 0.28% and SHFE silver slid 0.42%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:38 am, August 12: Macro Front China: [Zhengzhou Adjusts Housing Provident Fund Contribution Base] On August 11, the Zhengzhou Housing Provident Fund Management Center issued a notice on adjusting the 2026 housing provident fund contribution base. The notice specified that Zhengzhou's 2026 contribution base would be adjusted starting July 1, 2026. Both employee and employer contribution ratios must be no lower than 5% of an employee's average monthly salary from the previous year, and no higher than 12%. Employers may independently determine the ratio within the 5%-12% range based on their actual circumstances. (From Wall Street CN APP) [Weihai, Shandong Optimizes and Adjusts Housing Provident Fund Usage Policies] The Weihai Housing Provident Fund Management Center in Shandong Province has optimized and adjusted its policies. The maximum loan amount for a single depositor was raised from 600,000 to 800,000 yuan, and for dual depositors from 1 million to 1.2 million yuan. After stacking multiple preferential policies, the ceiling reaches up to 1.6 million yuan for a single depositor and 2 million yuan for dual depositors. (From Wall Street CN APP) [Shanghai Aims to Expand Software and IT Services Industry to 4 Trillion Yuan by 2030] Shanghai issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Shanghai's Software and Information Services Industry." By 2030, the city aims to build the industry into a "power source" for economic growth, a "main arena" for AI-enabled applications, and a "bridgehead" for global competition, with the following key targets: total industry scale is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, and industry added value to exceed 1.1 trillion yuan. Industry quality and efficiency will further improve, with a batch of breakthrough achievements in key areas such as artificial intelligence and critical software. The number of enterprises with revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan is projected to rise to 35, fostering a group of high-quality enterprises with industrial ecosystem dominance and emerging firms with potential leading influence. The industry structure will be further optimized, with the proportion of high-end software, digital content, and digital-intelligent services increasing, and the formation of several internationally competitive industrial bases and regional clusters. (From Wall Street CN APP) US Dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 99.82. Business Insider analyst William Edward noted two possible scenarios following the Wednesday CPI release: ① If inflation runs hot, stocks may fall. This could be the worst-case market scenario: stagflation. Investors had hoped the weak July jobs data would provide the US Fed with the rationale to cut interest rates. Hence, stocks surged sharply on Friday—bad news on the jobs front was actually good news for markets. However, given Warsh's outspokenness on curbing inflation, a hot CPI report could prompt him to raise interest rates even amid a soft employment outlook. In any case, it is hard to imagine stocks continuing to rally if inflation comes in higher than expected. Unlike employment data, bad news on CPI is truly bad news. ② If inflation eases, stocks could soar. While inflation is unlikely to drop below the Fed's 2% target, investors would likely welcome any reading below 3%, seeing it as a sign that CPI growth is slowing down, allowing the Fed to cut interest rates comfortably—or at least hold steady. Even the latter case alone could unwind the rate-hike expectations priced in for later this year, letting investors breathe a little easier. (Jin10 Data APP) Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos noted that the market will focus heavily on the MoM change in the July inflation data due Wednesday, as a growing number of FOMC members say the inflation readings over the coming months will determine whether their forecast of "inflation falling back to 2% over the next two years" remains achievable without further rate hikes. However, new Fed Chair Warsh has recently dismissed this framework that ties policy-sensitive forecast revisions closely to high-frequency data. He previously stated he sees little practical value in the Fed's current "data-dependent" approach. Nick also mentioned that part of the working group established by Warsh seems aimed at helping build a framework to replace the old one. But until a new framework is clearly defined, the old one still appears to be operating. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "Fed Watch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged in September stands at 52.0%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 48.0%. For October, the probability of holding rates unchanged is 38.7%, a cumulative 25bp hike 49.0%, and a cumulative 50bp hike 12.2%. (Jin10 Data APP) Bank of America analysts believe that if the US CPI report surprises to the downside, the US dollar could see a relatively stronger reaction, as it would "essentially rule out" a Fed rate hike in September and challenge current market pricing. Analysts including Alex Cohen, Stephen Juneau, and Meghan Swiber wrote in a Tuesday note: "Following the clearly soft June CPI data, we expect the July CPI to be more in line with recent trends, with headline CPI up 0.1% MoM and core CPI up 0.2% MoM." (From Wall Street CN APP) Macro: Today, data including the US July unadjusted CPI YoY, US July seasonally adjusted CPI MoM, US July seasonally adjusted core CPI MoM, US July unadjusted core CPI YoY, and Germany July final CPI MoM will be released. In addition, Tencent will hold its Q2 earnings conference call, MSCI will announce its August index adjustment notice, EIA will publish its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, IEA will release its monthly crude oil market report, and OPEC will release its monthly crude oil market report (exact release time TBD, generally around 18-21 Beijing time). Crude Oil: Overnight, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic rose, with WTI up 1.34% and Brent up 1.8%. Doubts over the prospect of a potential peace deal between the US and Iran fueled concerns that Middle East supply disruptions will persist. The US now expects that the about 600,000 bbl/day of oil supply disruptions caused by the US-Iran war will last until the end of next year, as the conflict continues to impede oil shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz. According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, an average of about 4.9 million bbl/day of oil were transported through the Strait of Hormuz in Q2 this year. That compares with a daily average of 21.6 million barrels in Q4 2025, before the US and Israel attacked Iran. As the conflict enters its sixth month, global consumers again face the risk of higher fuel prices and elevated inflation. The EIA raised its 2026 gasoline and diesel price forecasts by 3.7% and 5.4%, respectively, and lifted its 2027 retail gasoline price estimate by 6.5% from a month ago. The agency also estimated that the scale of Middle East production outages fell to around 5.5 million bbl/day in July, down from 7.5 million bbl/day in June. Outages are expected to widen again in Q3 to an average of 6.6 million bbl/day. The report assumes that recent threats against vessels carrying Saudi crude through the Bab el-Mandeb strait have not caused additional supply disruptions. If this assumption holds, the agency expects that most production and trade activities may not return to pre-war levels until early 2027. (Wall Street CN) The EIA released its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO): it forecasts Brent crude prices at $87/bbl in 2026 (previously $82/bbl) and $69/bbl in 2027 (previously $65/bbl). US oil production is projected at 13.8 million bbl/day in 2026 (previously 13.8 million bbl/day) and 14.2 million bbl/day in 2027 (previously 14 million bbl/day). The roughly 600,000 bbl/day of crude oil supply disruptions in the Middle East are expected to persist through the end of 2027. US LNG exports are forecast at 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in 2026 (previously 17.4 billion cubic feet per day) and 18.6 billion cubic feet per day in 2027 (previously 18.6 billion cubic feet per day). The next STEO will be released on September 9. (Wall Street CN) API data showed that last week, US API crude inventories rose by 9.072 million barrels, following a 2.69 million-barrel increase the prior week. API Cushing crude inventories rose by 157.1 barrels, after a 2.358 million-barrel increase previously. API gasoline inventories fell by 1.531 million barrels (compared with a 156,000-barrel build the prior week), while distillate inventories decreased by 596,000 barrels (versus a draw of 118,000 barrels the week before).

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Norsk Hydro has reduced alumina production at its Alunorte refinery in Brazil to 50% following disruptions to natural gas supply from CELBA, part of New Fortress Group. To mitigate the disruption, Alunorte is purchasing spot gas, seeking direct access to the Barcarena LNG receiving and regasification terminal, and pursuing alternative long-term gas supplies. Hydro said production will begin ramping back to full capacity once gas availability normalizes. Hydro estimates the disruption could negatively impact its Bauxite & Alumina business by US$75–100 million in Q3 2026, reflecting both lower alumina production and gas purchases above the contracted price. The company said the ultimate financial impact remains uncertain.

SMM August 11 News: Today, SHFE aluminum 2609 contract opened at 24,180 yuan/mt, reached a high of 24,260 yuan/mt, a low of 24,095 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 24,250 yuan/mt, up 215 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.89%. Trading volume was 131,200 lots, open interest 239,400 lots, with a daily position change of -1,415 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (24,010), MA10 (23,821), MA30 (23,314.17), and MA60 (23,720.75). The moving average system shows a bullish alignment, and the uptrend continues. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (188.92) and DEA (76.79) are both above the zero line and continue to diverge upward, with the histogram expanding to 224.25, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 131,200 lots was below MA5 (134,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting limited willingness to rush to buy amid continuous price rise. SMM Comment: Differences remain on the Middle East situation. Although the US Fed did not raise rates in July, its overall stance remains hawkish. The fundamental deficit persists, and aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note. Today, alumina 2609 contract opened at 2,727 yuan/mt, reached a high of 2,743 yuan/mt, a low of 2,711 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 2,724 yuan/mt, up 25 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a rise of 0.93%. Trading volume was 156,100 lots, open interest 324,900 lots, with a daily position change of -28,277 lots. The price has firmly stood above MA5 (2,696.2), MA10 (2,670.7), and MA30 (2,696.4), but remains below MA60 (2,764.7). Short-term moving averages are in bullish alignment, while medium and long-term moving averages still exert resistance. In the MACD indicator, DIFF (29.51) and DEA (17.39) have both turned positive and are diverging upward, with the histogram expanding to 24.24, indicating gradually strengthening bullish momentum. Trading volume of 156,100 lots was below MA5 (203,100 lots), a volume-shrinking rise suggesting declining market participation. The daily position change of -28,277 lots, a significant reduction, indicates clear bearish liquidation. SMM Comment: This week, spot alumina prices continued to drift lower, maintaining a downward trend. Supply side, production this week rebounded slightly WoW, mainly as enterprises that had undergone maintenance resumed production, gradually restoring output to normal levels, with overall supply increasing. Demand side saw no significant change, with downstream procurement pace remaining stable, failing to provide effective growth support. Ex-China, the issue of Indonesia's alumina export restrictions has been resolved. Alumina resources previously suspended due to containing rare earth elements have now been approved for re-export, which will supplement the Chinese market going forward. Looking ahead to next week, bullish and bearish factors are intertwined: On one hand, an alumina refinery in south China plans maintenance, which will tighten regional supply and provide some support to prices; on the other hand, new vessels will continue to arrive at ports, providing ongoing supply replenishment. Under these two forces, overall inventory is expected to remain at current levels, with the pace of inventory buildup slowing down. Overall, driven by sentiment fluctuations on the futures market and the positive impact of short-term maintenance, the decline in alumina prices is expected to temporarily halt, and prices will consolidate within the current range in the near term. [The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions prudently and should not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients have nothing to do with SMM.]

SMM News, August 11: Metal market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.61%, and SHFE aluminum rose 0.81%. SHFE lead rose 0.86%. SHFE zinc rose 0.47%. SHFE tin fell 0.29%, and SHFE nickel fell 0.59%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.38%, the most-traded alumina futures fell 0.78%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.36%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.76%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.46%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 1.47%, rebar edged up, hot-rolled coil fell 0.12%, and stainless steel fell 0.82%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.47%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.45%. As for overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.48%, LME aluminum, LME lead, and LME zinc rose within 0.2%. LME tin fell 0.12%, and LME nickel fell 0.32%. Precious metals: as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 1.37%, and COMEX silver rose 1.12%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.88%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures continued its rally for the fifth consecutive trading day, rising 3.08%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.59%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 1.92%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight futures contract fell 6.11% to 1,536.5 points. As of 11:40 on August 11, midday futures market overview: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: In North China, spot #1 copper cathode prices against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 280 yuan/mt to 220 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 255 yuan/mt, narrowing by 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 108,300 yuan/mt, up 640 yuan/mt from the previous trading day... Macro Front Domestic: [The PBOC’s reverse repo operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan] The PBOC did not conduct any reverse repo operations today, as 46.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 46.5 billion yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) [China Index Academy: Nationwide Foreclosed Housing Transactions Up Over 40% YoY in Jan-Jul] Data from the China Index Academy showed that 245,000 foreclosed residential properties were listed for auction nationwide from January to July, up 23.1% YoY; 89,000 units were sold, up 42.7% YoY; the clearance rate was 36.2%, up 4.97 percentage points from the previous year; total transaction value reached 96.975 billion yuan, up 21.04% YoY. From January to July, the average transaction price of foreclosed residential properties was 8,081 yuan per square meter, a YoY decrease of 9.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) In the dollar segment: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.78. Cleveland Fed President Hammack stated that inflation has yet to return to its target level, and the US Fed may need to implement multiple rate hikes. She said a single 25-basis-point hike “would not have much impact on the economy,” but she was reluctant to predict the specific number of hikes or the terminal rate level. Hammack believes the current 3.50%–3.75% rate range has not placed significant restraint on the economy, and enterprises have not scaled back growth investments due to high rates, so “now is the time to act.” She noted that the longer the wait, the harder it will be to bring inflation back to 2%. Hammack also emphasized that the labor market currently shows no clear issues, and July employment data will not shift her focus on inflation. She argued that markets can only assist the Fed, not substitute for Fed action. Hammack dissented at the Fed’s July meeting, preferring a 25-basis-point hike over keeping rates unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, for the September meeting, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 48.8%, and a cumulative 25bp hike 51.2%. For October, the probabilities were 34.7% (no change), 50.5% (cumulative 25bp), and 14.7% (cumulative 50bp). (Jin10 Data APP) US President Trump said on Monday that he has had only one “brief” conversation with Fed Chairman Warsh since the latter took office, denying reports of frequent communications. White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said last week that the two “frequently discuss economic issues,” but other sources said the calls are irregular and not frequent. Previous reports indicated that Trump has communicated with Warsh multiple times since Warsh was confirmed as Fed Chairman in May, with Trump asking about Warsh’s economic outlook and views. Trump reiterated his desire for lower interest rates but said he “100% supports” Warsh and stressed that Fed policy is set jointly by the Board of Governors. (Jin10 Data APP) In other currencies: TD Securities expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep its interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, a baseline scenario broadly in line with market consensus and OIS pricing, which shows the probability of a hike today is near zero. This means the rate decision itself carries very limited risk of surprising the AUD or rates market. A more meaningful signal may come from the Monetary Policy Statement released alongside the rate decision. TD Securities expects that, despite the trimmed mean CPI data coming in weaker than expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia will resist sharply lowering its inflation forecasts, citing elevated oil prices as a persistent upside risk to the inflation outlook. The combination of "confirming a hold" and "cautious, rather than dovish, forecast revisions" implies that the market reaction will be relatively mild. Any surprise is more likely to come from the tone of the forecast language than from the rate decision itself. (Jin10 Data APP) According to Jiji Press, citing sources familiar with the matter, after raising rates in June, the Bank of Japan may consider raising rates again at its next policy meeting on September 17-18 to address rising inflation risks. Driven by the rapid growth in AI-related demand, a significant depreciation of the yen, and a rise in crude oil prices, prices in Japan may rise further. Previously, many financial market participants had expected the BOJ to raise rates roughly every six months. However, according to the summary of opinions from the meeting released on Monday, at the BOJ's latest policy meeting held on July 30-31, some policy board members had already indicated that the pace of rate hikes should be accelerated. One member said, "The pace of policy rate hikes may exceed market expectations," while another stated that the BOJ needed to "accelerate the pace of adjusting monetary easing." (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of China's July M2 money supply annual rate (TBD), the US July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending July 25, the US July existing home sales annualized rate, and the Reserve Bank of Australia's rate decision for the August 11 meeting, among other data. In addition, the RBA will publish its rate decision and monetary policy statement, and RBA Governor Bullock will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, both crude oil benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.07% and Brent up 0.06%. The renewed uncertainty over the US-Iran negotiations supported oil prices. Trump openly criticized the war reparations demand put forward by Iran during the negotiations, rapidly cooling the market's previously optimistic expectations for a quick deal and the reopening of strategic waterways. Wall Street Insights mentioned, citing CCTV, that US President Trump posted on social media on August 10 local time, saying that he had noticed Iran was demanding compensation for losses suffered in the military conflicts of the past five months. Trump said: "I similarly demand compensation from Iran, and I have instructed my representatives to explicitly include this demand in all future negotiations."On the same day, Iran continued to release signals of strengthening its security and political system. It is worth noting that last week, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accelerated its decline again, falling to its lowest level since 1983 and approaching the widely recognized operational floor of 250 million barrels. If the current weekly drawdown rate persists, the SPR will exhaust its buffer capacity within weeks. (Wall Street Insights) Donald Trump extended the Jones Act waiver allowing foreign vessels to transport oil and other goods within the US by 90 days, but imposed new restrictions. Due to the US-Iran conflict disrupting crude oil flows and driving up fuel costs, Trump maintained the related waiver while narrowing its scope. The new waiver will focus on energy transportation, including gasoline, jet fuel, crude oil, naphtha, liquefied natural gas, soybean oil, and fertilizers. Going forward, before deciding whether to grant a waiver for an individual voyage, the Pentagon will need to consult with the US Maritime Administration. The White House stated that the waiver helps ensure continued access to critical resources for the US military and essential industries, and increases domestic transportation of products such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. However, US shipbuilders and some members of Congress believe that the waiver undermines the Jones Act's protection of the domestic shipping industry. (Jinshi Data App) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Alumina Transaction: On August 7, 2026, 30,000 mt of alumina were traded at a transaction price of $365/mt CIF Malaysia for September shipment.