For almost four weeks, the war against Iran has kept the world on edge – a conflict that leaves deep marks not only geopolitically but also economically. Volatility and uncertainty in global markets are increasing daily.

[Supply Tightening Coupled With Macro Tailwinds Keeps Aluminum Prices Firmly at High Levels] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of gradually releasing peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

Import side, cumulative refined lead imports in January-February reached 33,412 mt, surging 732.08% YoY. Of this, February imports alone were 21,072 mt, up 70.77% MoM and 1,169.62% YoY, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years; raw material supply remained ample.

[SMM Lead Market Flash] This week, a small-scale smelter in Yunnan underwent maintenance and suspended production due to issues including raw material supply. As for its production resumption plan for April, it has not yet been determined.

On March 27, the 2026 SMM (21st) Lead & Zinc Conference and Industry Expo, organized by SMM, wrapped up successfully at Howard Johnson Agile Plaza in Chengdu, Sichuan!

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] Supply side, coke producers' shipments were smooth, and coke inventory continued to decline, but recently the cost of coal charged into furnaces at coke producers continued to rise, dampening the production enthusiasm of some coke producers. Demand side, current hot metal production at steel mills continued to increase, boosting rigid demand for coke. In summary, coke fundamentals showed a tight trend, and coupled with strengthening cost support for coke, the coke market may hold up well in the short term, with the first round of coke price increases this week likely to be implemented.

In March, European APT prices surged 30%, driven by persistent supply shortages, widening the price gap with China to over $400/mtu. Tungsten scrap markets saw panic selling mid-month but stabilized toward month-end. China entered a consolidation phase as mining quota were released, yet strong fundamentals point to renewed upside ahead.

India’s steel market in 2026 is expected to remain balanced, with demand slightly outpacing supply. Domestic consumption will absorb most output, while imports decline overall and exports increase modestly as a balancing mechanism. Supported by strong growth and infrastructure investment, India is transitioning toward a demand-led steel market with solid long-term potential.

Indonesia's new nickel tariffs and Europe's CBAM have sharply raised overseas stainless steel costs, driving Asian mills to hike prices. Downstream demand remains mixed: Japan and South Korea are resilient, while the Taiwan, China region faces pressure. Wary of rapid price spikes, buyers are limiting purchases to rigid demand. The market will remain cautious until tariff details and actual demand are validated.

Driven by the combined impact of macro policies and geopolitical factors, the stainless steel market outside China saw a marked upward shift in the cost center. Indonesia’s decision to impose tariffs on nickel and coal exports, together with the implementation of Europe’s CBAM carbon tax, directly ignited bullish sentiment across the raw material supply chain, leading to firm Indonesian export offers and a sharp surge in European alloy surcharges. Pushed strongly by costs, steel mills across many parts of Asia intensively raised their list prices. However, end-use demand outside China showed significant structural divergence, with Japan and South Korea remaining resilient while Taiwan, China came under pressure. As the rapid price rally in the earlier period triggered downstream fear of high prices, current procurement is strictly limited to rigid demand. Looking ahead, the specific implementation details of Indonesia’s tariffs and validation of substantive demand will become the core variables shaping futures. In the short term, markets outside China are likely to hover at highs while maintaining a cautious wait-and-see stance.