On May 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry" (hereinafter referred to as the "Replacement Measures"). SMM conducted a comparative review and analysis of the relevant content...

Overall, supply in China’s petroleum coke market continued to tighten, while downstream demand remained generally stable with support, and supply and demand fundamentals provided two-way support to the market. Coupled with recent fluctuations in crude oil prices and intensified cost-side bargaining, SMM expected that in the short term, the petroleum coke market would mainly remain in consolidation, with prices of different categories continuing to diverge.

According to reports, as of January 29, the in-factory inventory of primary lead delivery brands was 28,200 mt, an increase of 5,800 mt WoW. Recently, primary lead smelters in Hunan, Jiangxi, and other regions resumed production after maintenance, leading to an increase in lead ingot supply WoW. However, demand for lead-acid batteries remained sluggish, resulting in limited stockpiling by downstream enterprises before the Chinese New Year, as per tradition. Some enterprises even suspended production around the end of January. Trading in the spot market for lead was sluggish, and smelters' in-factory inventories shifted to an upward trend. Meanwhile, the price center of lead declined again this week, prompting suppliers to actively expand discounts for spot cargo sales or transfer lead ingots to social warehouses. Additionally, due to air pollution control measures in Henan, Shandong, and other regions, vehicle transport was partially restricted, causing some enterprises' inventories to accumulate.

SMM January 28: The most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 17,015 yuan/mt. Early in the session, due to long position reductions and weak spot trading activity, SHFE lead fell to a low of 16,955 yuan/mt. It rebounded in the afternoon to a high of 17,080 yuan/mt. However, weighed down by sluggish spot trading towards the close, SHFE lead gave up all gains, finally settling at 16,915 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt or 0.03%, marking a four-day losing streak. Lead prices recently maintained a sideways movement at low levels, significantly impacting market sentiment. Suppliers of primary lead showed a strong willingness to sell, often proactively adjusting prices to accelerate capital turnover. The secondary lead market displayed a divergent trend: some smelters widened discounts under sales pressure to boost transactions, while others chose to hold back cargoes and adopt a wait-and-see approach. Affected by factors such as air pollution control, several large secondary lead smelters in east China halted production, with additional output cuts expected this week. Overall, the SHFE lead trend is likely to maintain a fluctuating pattern in the short term. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and not as decision-making advice.

Secondary lead production fell in December 2025, down 5.03% MoM but up 10.3% YoY. Secondary refined lead production dropped 9.33% MoM and increased 0.84% YoY.

The weekly operating rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises fell 0.6 percentage points WoW to 60.8%. Due to weak orders, environmental protection-related controls, and high aluminum prices, downstream operations further deepened into the off-season. By sector, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy pulled back 0.4 percentage points to 59.6%.

SMM, Dec. 19, 2025: The SMM weekly operating rate for secondary lead smelters in four provinces was 41.61% from Dec. 12 to Dec. 18, 2025, down 3.75 percentage points WoW. This week, many areas in east and north China implemented environmental protection-related controls due to severe air pollution. Secondary lead smelters in Anhui, a major producing region, severely cut production, causing the regional operating rate to drop 11.88 percentage points MoM. If the controls are lifted this weekend, production will resume to normal levels. The operating rates in Henan and Jiangsu remained flat WoW. A secondary lead smelter in Inner Mongolia briefly suspended production last week due to equipment part replacement but resumed normal operations this week, leading to a rebound in the regional operating rate. However, local smelters indicated that pressure from tight raw material supply on production persists. In summary, if smelters in Anhui resume normal production this weekend, the secondary lead operating rate is expected to rebound next week. However, frequent winter haze may lead to environmental protection-related controls, posing potential limitations on secondary lead smelters' production. Additionally, the retirement volume of waste lead-acid batteries from EVs softened, and raw material supply pressure remains a major factor affecting the secondary lead operating rate. 》Order and View SMM Historical Spot Metal Prices

[Environmental Protection Impact in the North, Galvanizing Operating Rates Weakened]: This week, the operating rate of galvanizing recorded 56.08%, down 2.31 percentage points WoW. In terms of raw material inventory, the zinc price center dropped back slightly at the beginning of the week, and enterprises in the north restocked slightly. However, due to environmental protection impacts, the delivery time of zinc ingots to plants was affected, while zinc ingot inventory in east China was relatively tight. Galvanizing enterprises in east China mainly made just-in-time procurement, and the shipment pace was slow. Overall, zinc ingot inventory declined.

[Spot Silicon Metal Stalemate, Polysilicon Focuses on Transaction Settlements]: This week, silicon metal futures prices saw an upward correction, but still fell short of silicon enterprises' expectations, resulting in weak willingness to sell. Downstream sectors continued to digest inventories with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Recently, spot silicon metal prices have been locked in a stalemate, with prices facing pressure from both upward and downward movements.

In December 2025, emergency controls were activated due to air pollution in key phosphorus chemical industry areas of Hubei, such as Yichang and Jingmen, compounded by the Yangtze River Protection Policy. This led to 30% of small and medium-sized enterprises halting production, while leading companies cut production by 20%-30%. The supply of new energy raw materials, including industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP), which accounts for over 50% of the national total, tightened, providing short-term price support and continuing to increase costs for the new energy industry.