Zambian Ministry of Mines is advancing a proposal for a pan-African minerals and metals exchange to give producer nations greater control over mineral trading and pricing. Adviser Jito Kayumba said the plan builds on Zambia's metals-trading tie-up with Mercuria and has already been discussed with the DRC and two undisclosed countries. For lithium, the move aligns with Zimbabwe's SC6 export controls and Mali's Goulamina ramp-up, and could eventually offer an alternative to CIF China spodumene pricing as African-origin volumes grow through ports like Walvis Bay and Beira. DRC's Manono project (targeting 1Mt/y spodumene) would also fall within scope. SMM view: Early-stage and non-binding no confirmed members, governance, or timeline. Relevant to watch for delivered-cost and netback benchmarking on Zimbabwe/Mali/DRC assets, but limited near-term pricing impact.

First Quantum Minerals produced 184,929 tonnes of copper in Zambia during the first half of 2026, marking a 5% year-over-year increase from 176,116 tonnes recorded in H1 2025. This performance keeps the country's largest copper producer firmly on track to meet its full-year guidance. The growth was driven by solid operational outputs across both of its primary Zambian assets. Kansanshi reached 89,342 tonnes in H1—up from 86,647 tonnes in H1 2025—supported by strong processing throughput in its S3 expansion circuit. Sentinel also delivered higher volume, producing 95,587 tonnes compared to 89,469 tonnes in the same period last year. Following the H1 results, First Quantum maintained its 2026 production guidance of up to 205,000 tonnes for Kansanshi and 220,000 tonnes for Sentinel. Reaching these targets would push the company’s total annual output past 370,000 tonnes, exceeding the 361,000 tonnes produced locally in 2025. For H2, the miner anticipates stronger performance driven by higher plant throughput, improved recovery rates, and elevated ore grades at Sentinel. As First Quantum operations accounted for 41% of Zambia's 890,346 tonnes total output in 2025, this continued momentum plays a central role in supporting the Zambian government’s ambitious target to exceed 1 million tonnes of national copper production in 2026.

Zambia is advocating for the establishment of a pan-African minerals and metals exchange as part of a broader strategy to increase the value African countries derive from their mineral resources and strengthen regional control over mineral trading. The proposal seeks to create a continental platform that would give African producers a greater role in mineral marketing while promoting downstream industries such as refining, manufacturing and value addition. According to foreign media reports, Presidential Adviser on Finance and Investment Jito Kayumba said the initiative reflects growing demand for African countries to benefit more directly from their natural resources and reduce reliance on exporting raw minerals. The proposed exchange builds on Zambia's existing metals trading partnership with Mercuria and has already been discussed with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and two other African countries. Officials believe stronger regional trading mechanisms could also support the Zambia-DRC electric vehicle battery value chain initiative by improving access to locally produced copper and cobalt, which are largely supplied by privately owned mining companies. The initiative underscores Africa's broader push to capture a larger share of the global critical minerals value chain as demand for copper, cobalt and battery materials continues to grow. If implemented, a pan-African exchange could improve regional price discovery, strengthen Africa's negotiating position in international mineral markets, encourage investment in refining and manufacturing, and support the development of integrated supply chains. While the proposal remains at an early stage, it signals increasing momentum behind policies aimed at expanding mineral value addition and resource sovereignty across the continent.

Zambia is advancing a structural policy shift to restrict raw copper exports and mandate local mineral processing, directing international industrial partners to invest in domestic manufacturing facilities, according to foreign media reports. State delegations are currently negotiating agreements with specialized foreign manufacturers including China’s Wuxi Jiangnan Cable, to establish local plants capable of converting raw copper cathodes into high-value fabricated goods, such as high-voltage transmission cables and industrial wiring. This strategy reflects a broader regional trend across resource-rich African nations seeking to move beyond primary extraction toward downstream industrialization. For foreign mining operators and industrial investors, maintaining access to Zambian mineral assets will increasingly require capital deployment toward domestic smelting, refining, and manufacturing infrastructure. Similar value-addition mandates are taking shape across the continent, such as West African measures restricting raw cocoa bean exports in favor of domestic processing. By enforcing local-content and downstream manufacturing requirements, Zambia aims to capture higher export margins, generate skilled industrial employment, and build resilient domestic supply chains.

Zambia’s mining sector is embarking on a significant expansion phase as major international producers scale up capital expenditure to align with government ambitions of increasing national copper output toward 1 million MT per year. However, according to foreign media reports, industry analysts warn that the country's long-term production targets depend heavily on whether supporting grid and transport infrastructure can expand alongside mine capacity. The primary operational constraint remains electricity availability across the Copperbelt. With over 83% of Zambia's 3,985 MW national power base dependent on hydropower assets like Kafue Gorge and Kariba North, recent drought-driven water level drops have exposed severe energy vulnerabilities across the mining sector. Unscheduled grid fluctuations and emergency load-shedding pose acute operational risks to energy-intensive processing operations, where power interruptions cause severe thermal shock to copper smelter brick linings, resulting in physical equipment damage and prolonged operational shutdowns. To mitigate these disruptions, mining companies are increasingly investing in off-grid renewable energy projects, utility-scale solar PV capacity, and regional power imports. Beyond energy, sustained production growth will require capital investments in rail logistics networks, water infrastructure, and local supplier technical capacity.

As Zambia prepares for its general elections, international investors and metals analysts are focusing on whether macroeconomic policy continuity can translate into tangible mining growth, according to foreign media reports. Primary market attention is centered on foreign direct investment execution, power sector reliability, and structural economic reforms necessary to support long-term production targets. As the backbone of the national economy, generating 70% of export earnings and over 10% of GDP, the copper sector remains the primary benchmark for institutional investors. Market participants are closely tracking whether project pipelines, including First Quantum's ongoing expansions, continued investment from Barrick, and the return of Vedanta, can deliver actual production gains toward the long-term goal of tripling national copper output from roughly 1 million tons. While the government has pledged to keep mining royalty rates stable, foreign operators face potential supply-chain adjustments under a local-content framework requiring miners to scale domestic procurement from 20% toward 40% over three to four years. Because domestic suppliers often lack the required capital and technical capacity, foreign operators could face operational bottlenecks or enforcement uncertainty. Furthermore, expanding production hinges on resolving hydro-dependent power grid vulnerabilities through solar investment and grid reforms following severe drought-related load-shedding. Investors are also watching negotiations for a successor IMF program after the prior $1.7 billion facility ended in January, alongside fiscal deficit risks linked to state maize buffer-stock purchases.

[SMM Express] Mining sectors across Central and East Africa are facing a changing operating environment as governments increase focus on resource nationalism, local content requirements and domestic mineral processing. Countries across the region are seeking to capture more value from their mineral resources by encouraging in-country beneficiation and strengthening state participation. Policies in Tanzania, Mozambique, Zambia and Ethiopia highlight a broader shift away from exporting raw materials towards developing local processing capacity. The region remains critical to global mineral supply chains, with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) dominating cobalt exports, the Central African Copperbelt supporting major copper production and significant deposits of lithium, tantalum, niobium, tungsten and graphite found across several countries. However, mining investment continues to face challenges including security risks, regulatory uncertainty, infrastructure limitations and operational constraints. Several countries are also expanding strategic mineral classifications, which could lead to tighter export controls, increased royalties and greater government involvement.

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.

Zambia has inaugurated the 100MW Chisamba Phase II Solar Power Plant, doubling the Chisamba Solar Complex to 200MW. The USD 70 million project was completed in about seven months and created more than 1,400 local jobs. The government also signed contracts with five contractor groups to develop 156 solar plants of 2MW each under the Presidential Constituency Energy Initiative, adding a combined 312MW of solar capacity to the national grid within 12 months. SMM believes Zambia is accelerating solar diversification after drought affected hydropower output, with both centralized and decentralized PV projects helping improve power supply resilience.

Zambia will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on August 13. The market widely expects that incumbent President Hichilema Hakainde will win reelection. For investors, the core concern is whether his second term can transform the economic stabilization after the sovereign debt default into robust, mining-led, job-creating growth.