The average warrant price on July 22 rose $6/mt from the previous trading day to $115/mt (price range $110-120/mt); the average B/L price rose $4/mt to $112/mt (price range $108-116/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $5/mt to $79/mt (price range $75-83/mt), with offers referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to late August. The tight availability of marketable cargoes continued to support premiums. The COMEX-LME price spread widened, the ratio of cancelled warrants on the LME rose, and near-month contracts shifted to a backwardation structure. However, the weakening SHFE/LME price ratio and higher copper prices limited downstream rigid demand, resulting in only sporadic deals. It was heard that yesterday, a registered B/L for late-July arrival traded at $115/mt. Today, mainstream registered B/L offers for late-August arrival were quoted at $115-120/mt, and EQ copper for August arrival was quoted at $83-90/mt.

This week (July 13-16), the weekly average B/L transaction price range for Yangshan copper premiums was $84-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; the weekly average warrant transaction price range was $85-95/mt, QP August, averaging $90/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was $53-61/mt, QP August, averaging $57/mt. As of July 16, the ex-FX SHFE/LME copper price ratio for LME copper against the SHFE copper 2608 contract stood at 1.1426, with an import loss around 374.65 yuan/mt, widening from the prior period. As of Thursday, the LME copper front-end was in a contango structure, with the spread between the August and September dates at −$7.45/mt. Currently, mainstream offer indications for pyrometallurgical registered copper B/L are around $100-110/mt, and for EQ copper CIF B/L around $65-70/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums continued their upward momentum, still driven primarily by expectations of persistently tight market supply, which prompted suppliers to hold back from selling. Available cargoes were scarce during the week, and domestic social inventory continued destocking, giving upstream sellers strong confidence to hold prices firm. Spot premiums repeatedly hit new highs for the year, but downstream demand showed mediocre performance, with limited actual transactions. On the price ratio front, the ratio weakened over the week, yet sellers held an optimistic outlook for the near term. Overall, sellers’ firm pricing and downstream fear of high prices intertwined, presenting a weak supply-demand picture. According to SMM, as of Thursday (July 16), domestic bonded zone copper inventories increased by about 3,300 mt WoW from July 13 to 38,900 mt. Shanghai bonded inventory rose 2,900 mt WoW to 34,800 mt, and Guangdong bonded inventory rose 400 mt WoW to 4,100 mt. The bonded zone inventory shifted from destocking to buildup, mainly because some suppliers took an optimistic view on future premiums and the price ratio, showing low willingness to sell and leading to reduced warehouse withdrawals. Looking ahead, amid the siphoning effect from North America and production losses in Africa due to rising production costs, the market will continue to trade the tight availability of cargoes in the near term. However, it is worth noting that LME cancelled warrants have increased significantly recently, and according to SMM, some cargoes are already being shipped to China. Attention should be paid to the volume of this supply replenishment and the downstream's actual consumption capacity to absorb the high premiums.

On July 16, the average warrant price rose $5/mt from the previous trading day, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average B/L price rose $6/mt, quoted at $95/mt (price range $90-100/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose $3/mt, quoted at $60/mt (price range $57-63/mt), referencing cargoes arriving from mid-to-late July to mid-to-late August. Currently, China's social inventory continued to destock, and market supply remained tight, largely as LME cancelled warrants were shipped to China. Suppliers with limited cargo in hand held firm quotations, and the actual transaction price center continued to move up, though trading volume was low, leaving the market in a state of weak supply and demand. Today, it was heard that a registered B/L arriving in mid-to-late August traded at $100/mt, and a small volume of EQ copper was quoted at $70/mt.

This week (July 6 – July 9), the weekly average price range for Yangshan copper premium B/L transactions was $73–$87/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; the weekly average price range for warrant transactions was $74–$85/mt, QP August, with an average price of $80/mt; and EQ copper CIF B/L was at $43–$54/mt, QP August, with an average price of $49/mt. As of July 9, the forex-adjusted SHFE/LME copper price ratio for the SHFE copper 2607 contract against LME copper was 1.1406, with an import profit near 200.22 yuan/mt, compared to a loss of 163.35 yuan/mt in the previous period, with the arbitrage window open. As of Thursday, the front-end contango structure of LME copper widened, with the carry spread between the July date and August date at −$42.98/mt. Currently, mainstream offers for high-quality ER copper warrants are around $90–$100/mt, and mainstream offers for B/L are around $90–$100/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $50–$60/mt. This week, Yangshan copper premiums showed a rapid uptrend. The logic remained: low port arrivals from July to August led to persistently tight supply, giving suppliers strong sentiment to hold back from selling and hold prices firm, significantly lifting market offers and transaction centers. On the SHFE/LME price ratio side, the import price ratio swung from a loss to a profit, and downstream restocking actions occurred due to a typhoon. However, the rapid rise in premiums has caused current divergence between upstream and downstream players. Overall, limited available cargo, tight supply, and an open arbitrage window were the core drivers of this round's premium rise. According to the SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 9), China's bonded zone copper inventory decreased by about 4,400 mt MoM from the previous period (July 2) to 35,300 mt. Inventory in the Shanghai bonded zone was down 3,900 mt MoM to 31,900 mt, and in the Guangdong bonded zone, it was down 500 mt MoM to 3,400 mt. Bonded zone inventory destocked for a third consecutive week, consistent with shrinking port arrivals and tightening available cargo; the destocking pace widened from last week (a 1,300 mt decline), mainly due to low restocking into the bonded zone. Looking ahead, the pattern of tight arrivals from July to August continues to materialize, and supply-side support for premiums is likely to persist. Coupled with a rising import price ratio and a far-end shift to a backwardation structure, this is expected to continue giving suppliers confidence to hold prices firm. However, attention should be paid to whether current downstream actual consumption demand can support the sustained rise in premiums.

This week (June 29 – July 3), the weekly average Yangshan copper premium B/L transaction price range was $49.78–61.16/mt, QP July, with an average of $55.47/mt. The warrant transaction weekly average price range was $49.55–60.98/mt, QP July, with an average of $55.27/mt. EQ copper CIF B/L was $20.5–30.99/mt, QP July, averaging $25.75/mt. As of July 3, the LME copper to SHFE copper 2607 contract ex-FX SHFE/LME price ratio was 1.1359, with import losses around 163.35 yuan/mt, further narrowing from the prior period (loss of 234.08 yuan/mt). As of Friday, the LME copper nearby spread held a slight contango, with the July-August roll gap at -$21.79/mt. Mainstream high-quality ER copper warrant offers are currently near $70–78/mt, with B/L offers near $68–80/mt; CIF B/L EQ copper traded around $40–50/mt. Yangshan copper premiums extended their uptrend this week, driven by the same logic as last week — earlier market expectations of reduced July port arrivals continued to materialize into actual cargo tightness, gradually revealing price support. On the ratio side, narrowing import losses corroborated the spot logic of tight supply. Overall, this week marks the ongoing transmission from last week's "arrival-cut expectations" into "physical shortage," with supply contraction as the primary boost for premiums, rather than the price ratio or demand-side pull. According to an SMM survey, as of Thursday this week (July 2), China bonded zone copper inventories fell about 1,300 mt WoW from the prior period (June 25) to 39,700 mt. Shanghai bonded inventories dropped 1,100 mt WoW to 35,800 mt, while Guangdong bonded stocks shed 200 mt WoW to 3,900 mt. Bonded zone inventories declined slightly for a second consecutive week, consistent with tighter port arrivals and shrinking available cargoes. The destocking pace picked up from last week (basically flat total), suggesting bonded restocking speeds lagged the consumption pace. Looking ahead, if the tight July port-arrival pattern persists through the month, supply-side support for premiums may hold, though it's worth watching whether momentum from this leg up has been partially priced in. Focus on whether July actual port arrival data will validate the current shortage expectations and whether the spot market may continue shifting to a backwardation structure.

On June 24, the average warrant price rose by $3/mt from the previous trading day to $63/mt (price range: $60-70/mt); the average B/L price increased by $4/mt to $67/mt (price range: $62-72/mt); the average price for EQ copper (CIF B/L) gained $3/mt to $35/mt (price range: $32-38/mt), with offers referencing cargo arriving in early July. Overnight, the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered, boosting buyer pricing demand. Morning market demand was relatively strong, with spot premiums showing an uptrend. Early-July-arrival EQ B/Ls were heard offered around $45/mt, while a small volume of late-June-arrival EQ cargoes was reported traded above $35/mt. Registered B/Ls for early-July arrival were heard quoted at $70-75/mt, and registered warrants for early-July delivery were reported traded at $70/mt.

May 19, 2026: The average warrant price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $72/mt (price range $68-76/mt); the average B/L price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $71/mt (price range $66-76/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $41/mt (price range $38-44/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late May and early June. Intraday pullback in the SHFE/LME price ratio limited demand, with market offers declining and transactions remaining sluggish. A small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in early May was heard at $80/mt, QP May; early June EQ B/L was offered at $55/mt; EQ B/L arriving in mid-May was quoted at $50/mt, QP May-June. ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $80-85/mt, with no transactions heard so far, QP June.

[SMM Analysis] This week (April 27-April 30), Yangshan copper premiums B/L weekly average price range was 53.5-71.5 $/mt, QP June, average price $62.5/mt; warrant weekly average price range was 56-72.5 $/mt, QP May, average price $64.25/mt; EQ copper CIF B/L was 22.5-41 $/mt, QP June, average price $31.75/mt.

April 29, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $64/mt (price range $56-74/mt); the average B/L price rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $61/mt (price range $51-73/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $31/mt (price range $20-42/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving from late April to early-to-mid May. The SHFE/LME price ratio recovered during the day, and some buyers in the market had purchase demand. Cargoes arriving both before and after the holiday were offered, but buyers mainly focused on first-hand sources, so despite some transactions, liquidity remained weak. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was quoted at $50/mt, QP May; late April arriving EQ B/L was offered at $20/mt; mid-May arriving EQ B/L was offered unchanged at $45-50/mt, with a small volume traded at $38-40/mt, QP May. ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $50-60/mt, with a small volume traded at $50-55/mt, QP May.

April 24, 2026: The average warrant price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $67/mt (price range: $62–72/mt); the average B/L price fell $1/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $65/mt (price range: $61–71/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price fell $2/mt from the previous trading day, closing at $35/mt (price range: $30–40/mt), with quotations referencing cargoes arriving from late April to mid-to-early May. Yangshan copper premiums pulled back as expected during the session. Bids from downstream buyers remained low, while the volume of spot order offers increased notably. Buyers and sellers were at odds, and concluded deals were significantly limited. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $80/mt, quotation period (QP) May; mid-April EQ B/L offers were heard at $40/mt, EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $40/mt, B/L arriving in mid-May was offered at $50/mt, with a small volume concluded at 38–40, quotation period (QP) May. ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at 78–80, with a small volume concluded at 70–73, quotation period (QP) May.