SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.

According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

SMM, March 23: Today in Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was quoted at 110 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 70 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 92,985 yuan/mt, down 2,960 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 92,865 yuan/mt, down 2,965 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory fell for a fifth straight day, mainly due to limited arrivals and increased shipments. As copper prices plunged, suppliers once sought to hold prices firm and sell in early trading, with standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt. However, as the current structure has shifted to a backwardation structure, more suppliers showed strong willingness to sell and proactively lowered premiums to move cargoes, sending standard-quality copper down to a discount of 10 yuan/mt. Today, the procurement sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.63, up 0.12 from the previous trading day, while shipment sentiment was 3.42, up 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, as futures shifted to a backwardation structure, suppliers actively sold, and spot turned to discounts, with overall trading remaining average.

SMM News, March 23: Data brief: As of Monday, March 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 14.54% WoW from last Monday, with all regions posting significant destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, the arrival pace of imported and domestic supplies remained normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover on the back of the pullback in copper prices, leading to notable inventory drawdowns; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption also improved significantly amid the sharp pullback in copper prices; in Guangdong, downstream consumption remained highly buoyant, and together with tighter supply, spot inventory dropped sharply. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with the overall supply side tending to stabilize; on the demand side, the continued pullback in copper prices will further stimulate downstream procurement demand, and rigid demand is expected to continue to be released. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 83.76% this week, up 2.25 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the market has currently formed a pattern of “stabilizing supply and continued recovery in consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

Spot prices for #1 copper cathode in North China against the front-month contract averaged a discount of 30 yuan/mt today, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average transaction price was 92,840 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports were 13,233.73 mt in January 2026, up 30.59% MoM and up 27.53% YoY; in February, exports were 8,395.28 mt, down 36.56% MoM and up 11.87% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative copper plate/sheet and strip exports reached 21,629.01 mt, up 20.96% YoY cumulatively. In January-February 2026, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports rose 20.96% YoY, maintaining overall steady growth, with exports covering 120 countries and regions. In terms of export pattern, Vietnam and South Korea ranked first and second, with export volumes of 2,549 mt and 2,542 mt, up 13.6% YoY and 42.5% YoY, respectively. India maintained steady growth and ranked third with exports of 1,898 mt, with the YoY growth rate reaching 29.6%; Taiwan, China and Japan followed, with export volumes of 1,864 mt and 1,375 mt, respectively. Among them, Taiwan, China was up 5.4% YoY, while Japan was the only major destination market to post a YoY decline, down 16.7%. In terms of growth rates, emerging markets were particularly outstanding: Mexico’s YoY growth rate reached as high as 149.0%, with exports surging from 304 mt to 757 mt, making it the most prominent growth market. Malaysia, Thailand, and Germany also performed strongly, with YoY growth rates of 47.0%, 47.2%, and 44.6%, respectively, all achieving growth of more than 40%. The structure of China’s copper plate/sheet and strip export trade modes continued the characteristics seen in the previous period. Customs data showed that in January-February, processing trade with imported materials remained the core export mode, with exports of 14,335 mt, accounting for 66.3% and firmly maintaining its dominant position; Processing and Assembling exports were 3,655 mt, accounting for 16.9%; Ordinary Trade exports were 2,182 mt, accounting for 10.1%; and other trade modes totaled 1,458 mt, accounting for 6.7%. In terms of detailed product structure, in January-February 2026, China’s copper plate/sheet and strip exports were still dominated by copper strip, with exports of 14,151 mt, accounting for 65% and up 23.8% YoY, serving as the core driver boosting overall exports. Bronze strip performed strongly, with a YoY growth rate of 34.8%, the fastest among major categories; cupronickel strip, brass strip, and other categories also achieved YoY growth, with the overall structure remaining stable and growth momentum abundant. (HS code 74091110,74091190,74091900,74092100,74092900,74093100,74093900,74094000,74099000)

News on March 20, 2026: Today, the average warrant price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $48/mt (price range: $42-54/mt); the average B/L price rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $47/mt (price range: $41-53/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $2/mt from the previous trading day and closed at $28/mt (price range: $21-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. During the day, spot transaction premiums continued to rise, and suppliers actively sought bonded warrants or B/L scheduled to arrive in the near term. It was heard that a small volume of ER copper B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with both April and May QPs available. General ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

March 23, 2026: The average warrant price rose by $4/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price rose by $6/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) rose by $1/mt from the previous trading day, closed at $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotes referring to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio remained elevated, but transactions were relatively weak. Both warrant and B/L offers and deals moved higher, but most spot cargo in the market had already been locked in for price-ratio imports. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with QP available in both April and May. General pyrometallurgy warrants deliverable within the week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.