SMM, March 24: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,435 yuan/mt intraday. After the opening, prices edged lower, and the tug-of-war between longs and shorts intensified. SHFE lead prices fluctuated at lows in consolidation, touching an intraday low of 16,385 yuan/mt. Thereafter, bulls gradually gained strength and prices fluctuated higher, but with insufficient upward momentum, lead prices pulled back again and fluctuated rangebound within the 16,429-16,451 yuan/mt range. Near the close, SHFE lead prices dipped slightly and finally settled at 16,420 yuan/mt. A small bearish candlestick was recorded, up 25 yuan/mt, or 0.15%. In terms of supply, primary lead enterprise quotes saw discounts narrow slightly from last Friday, and spot cargo available for pickup at plants with medium to large discounts decreased significantly; in the secondary refined lead market, fewer merchants offered quotes, with relatively prominent price divergence between upstream and downstream players. Downstream buyers showed limited acceptance of premiums, while upstream quotes stayed firm and willingness to sell remained cautious. On the demand side, downstream enterprise procurement pace was relatively scattered, with most purchases centered on the execution of long-term contracts. Some enterprises replenished inventories on dips based on immediate needs, and overall market transactions were mixed. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term. Statement on data sources: Except for public information, all other data is derived by SMM through processing based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Analysis:Rare Earth Ore Imports Surge in Early 2026, Exceeding Demand and Causing Surplus] According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, from January to February 2026, China’s imports of mixed rare earth carbonate were about 3,013.7 mt, up 321% YoY. Over the same period, imports of unlisted rare earth oxides were about 12,860.4 mt, also posting a sharp increase of 209% YoY.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.

On March 20, the Information Office of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Government held a press conference in the series “Implementing the ‘1571’ Work Deployment and Promoting High-Quality Development in Inner Mongolia,” providing a special briefing on the region’s achievements in green hydrogen industry development, key tasks for 2026, and the 15th Five-Year Plan. It made clear that, by leveraging its advantages in wind and solar power resources, Inner Mongolia will advance the full-chain layout of green hydrogen and continue to lead the nation’s green hydrogen industry. Key Focuses of the Hydrogen Energy Industry in 2026: Building a Pioneer Zone for Green Hydrogen Development In 2026, with the construction of a national pioneer zone for the green hydrogen industry as its core goal, Inner Mongolia will comprehensively advance the large-scale deployment of green hydrogen. It will launch pilot projects for large-scale off-grid hydrogen production, expand application scenarios such as blending green hydrogen into natural gas and coupling with the chemical and metallurgical industries, while simultaneously building green hydrogen industrial parks and broadening channels for the non-power use of green electricity. Within the year, construction will begin on three green hydrogen pipelines, including the Ulanqab–Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei route, to improve the transmission network. At the same time, the region will focus on breakthroughs in hydrogen energy technology, deepen collaboration among industry, academia, research, and application, and advance the implementation of demonstration projects for the first unit (set) of hydrogen energy equipment and collaborative innovation projects integrating wind and solar power, hydrogen, and energy storage, so as to consolidate the industry’s technological foundation. Green Hydrogen Industry Achievements Lead the Nation, with Advantages in Both Scale and Cost Becoming Prominent Inner Mongolia is richly endowed with wind and solar power resources, with technically developable wind and solar power resources exceeding 10 billion kW, accounting for one-quarter of the national total, laying a solid foundation for the green hydrogen industry. At present, multiple industry indicators ranked among the top nationwide. A total of 19 policies covering the entire industry chain of green hydrogen had been introduced; 7 projects were included in national demonstration programs; 8 projects were completed and put into operation, forming annual capacity of 80,000 mt. Green hydrogen production reached 12,694 mt in 2025, surging 3.6 times YoY; production in January and February 2026 was 2,653.6 mt, with production costs at 17-20 yuan/kg, only 60% of the national average. In addition, the country’s first provincial-level green hydrogen pipeline plan had been implemented, and the pipeline network featuring “one trunk line, two loops, and four outlets” was being accelerated. The hydrogen pipeline from Darhan Muminggan Banner to urban Baotou had already been completed, while green hydrogen applications now covered transportation, chemicals, power, and other fields, with the consumer market maturing rapidly. Precise Planning Under the 15th Five-Year Plan to Build a Strong Hydrogen Energy Industry Cluster During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, based on its existing foundation, Inner Mongolia will build a distinctive hydrogen energy industry cluster and focus on advancing four major tasks: scientifically formulate industry plans and reasonably lay out clusters by producing based on sales; tackle core technologies such as off-grid hydrogen production and flexible electrolyzers to raise the industry’s technological level; expand diversified application scenarios, improve business models, and open up the entire chain of production, storage, transportation, refueling, and utilization; accelerate the construction of green hydrogen pipelines within the region and across provinces, reduce transportation costs, comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of the green hydrogen industry, and support the industry in continuing to lead the nation.

SMM, March 24: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,889/mt. In early trading, LME lead fluctuated downward, dipping to $1,873.5/mt. Then bulls stepped in, driving prices sharply higher, with wide swings in the $1,888.5-1,909/mt range and a session high of $1,909/mt. Near the close, bullish momentum somewhat faded, and LME lead edged down slightly to finally close at $1,898.5/mt. It posted a small bullish candlestick, up $9.5/mt, or 0.5%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened higher with a gap at 16,495 yuan/mt. In early trading, SHFE lead prices briefly fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 16,510 yuan/mt. It then saw wide swings in the 16,440-16,500 yuan/mt range. During the session, SHFE lead fluctuated downward, falling to 16,405 yuan/mt. Late in the session, SHFE lead prices stabilized slightly and rebounded, finally closing at 16,435 yuan/mt. It posted a small bearish candlestick, up 40 yuan/mt, or 0.24%. Supply side, discounts quoted by primary lead enterprises narrowed slightly WoW, and among cargoes self-picked up from production site, heavily discounted cargoes were also hard to find. The number of enterprises quoting secondary refined lead was relatively small, and there were clear differences between upstream and downstream in price acceptance: downstream had low acceptance of premiums, while upstream held firm offers and showed cautious willingness to sell. Demand side, procurement by downstream enterprises was somewhat scattered. Some mainly made purchases under long-term contracts, while others bought the dip as needed, resulting in differentiated market transactions. SMM expects SHFE lead prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] News-Driven Disturbances Pushed SS Futures Higher to Test the Upside, Confidence in the Stainless Steel Spot Market Gradually Recovered SMM News, March 24: SS futures rose strongly. Affected by market fluctuations triggered by news of geopolitical conflict yesterday, SS futures rose sharply in the night session, and the daytime session maintained a fluctuating but relatively strong trend, closing at 14,290 yuan/mt by midday. In the spot market, boosted by the sharp rise in SS futures, market confidence somewhat recovered; although the increase in traders' spot quotations was limited, both inquiries and transactions showed signs of recovery during the week. The current market is heavily disturbed by news factors, and changes in the geopolitical conflict still need close attention. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened and moved higher. At 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 14,305 yuan/mt, up 125 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 115-315 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi rose by 50 yuan/mt, while the average price in Foshan was unchanged; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi were unchanged; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, Wuxi quotations were unchanged; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan were also unchanged. As the market entered the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April," although the stainless steel market ushered in a seasonal recovery window, end-use demand fell short of expectations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment gradually intensified, and the procurement side only maintained a restocking pace for rigid demand, with none of the transaction momentum typically seen in the peak season emerging. The market's view on stainless steel prices...

Silver prices fluctuated and stabilized today, and the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract widened slightly. Suppliers' premium quotations rose slightly from yesterday. In the Shanghai market, during early trading, mainstream quotations from suppliers of national-standard silver ingots were at premiums of 100-120 yuan/kg against TD, or at a premium of 50 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. A few suppliers were reluctant to sell small volumes at premiums of 120-150 yuan/kg against TD. After negotiations, mainstream transaction prices for mt-level volumes in the market were close to premiums of 70-100 yuan/kg against TD, or near parity against the 2604 contract. Downstream enterprises actively negotiated and bought the dip, and consumption improved slightly compared with yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

SMM, March 24: SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward in early trading, slightly higher than the previous trading day. Overall market buying sentiment was relatively good, and sellers held prices firm as aluminum prices remained at relatively low levels. Today’s mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at SHFE aluminum 04 contract +10 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipments sentiment index was 2.79, up 0.07 MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 3.34, up 0.04 MoM. As aluminum prices extended their decline, traders in the central China market showed weak purchase sentiment. With the month-end settlement date approaching, suppliers made heavy shipments and showed limited willingness to hold prices firm. Downstream processing enterprises were wary of further price declines, with no expectation of large-scale stockpiling at low prices for now. Overall market purchase activity was sluggish, and prices showed a continued price collapse trend. Ultimately, actual transaction prices in the central China market were concentrated in the range from a premium of 20 yuan over the central China price to a discount of 20 yuan to the central China price. Today, the central China market shipments sentiment index was 2.63, flat MoM; the purchasing sentiment index was 2.4, down 0.08 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas increased by 6,500 mt MoM today, with destocking mainly coming from Gongyi and Guangdong. In the short term, after the Chinese New Year, aluminum ingot inventory continued to see seasonal inventory buildup. Affected by bullish sentiment, premiums are expected to remain on a narrowing trend.