SMM August 8: Base metals market: Overnight, base metals on both domestic and overseas markets generally fell, with only LME aluminum, LME lead, LME nickel, and SHFE nickel rising. LME nickel led the gains with a 1.5% increase, SHFE nickel rose 0.52%, LME aluminum rose 0.09%, and LME lead rose 0.03%. LME zinc led the declines with a 1.9% drop, LME tin fell 1.67%, SHFE zinc fell 1.54%, and SHFE tin fell 1.51%. The rest of the metals fell within 1%. Alumina main contract rose 0.04%, while cast aluminum main contract fell 0.09%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.21%, rebar closed flat at 3,010 yuan/mt, and iron ore fell 0.56%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose 1.71% and coke rose 1.15%. Overnight, precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.37% overnight, reclaiming $4,400/oz, with a weekly surge of 7.17%. COMEX silver rose 3.56% overnight, with a weekly surge of 10.41%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 1.53% and SHFE silver rose 1.66%. SHFE gold jumped 5.03% weekly, and SHFE silver surged 9.43% weekly. UBS Chief Investment Officer Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi and her team said, "This gold rally is supported by fundamentals. We expect gold prices to approach $5,000/oz in H1 2027." Since the US and Israel launched a war against Iran at the end of February, gold prices came under pressure and pulled back. UBS strategists noted that risks remain in the near term. If oil prices rise, or if the market prices in expectations of a more hawkish Fed monetary policy and rising bond appeal, gold could face pressure. However, the institution maintains an optimistic outlook on gold's medium- to long-term trend. Hoffmann-Burchardi said the team expects inflation to gradually ease, and the Fed is likely to keep rates unchanged this year and restart an interest rate cutting cycle in 2027. "The growing expectation of lower policy rates is likely to depress real yields and drag on the US dollar, thereby boosting investment demand for gold and creating a more favorable market environment for the metal," she said. (Wallstreetcn) As of 7:40 on August 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic: [Exceeding 30 Trillion Yuan! China’s Goods Trade Import and Export Continued Growth Momentum in First 7 Months] China's General Administration of Customs today released statistics showing that in the first seven months of this year, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 30.13 trillion yuan, up 17.3% YoY, continuing a solid growth trend. Exports amounted to 17.44 trillion yuan, up 14%, while imports stood at 12.69 trillion yuan, up 22%. In July, imports and exports totaled 4.66 trillion yuan, up 19.2% YoY. Exports reached 2.71 trillion yuan, up 17.8%, while imports were 1.95 trillion yuan, up 21.2%. SMM, based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, has compiled the import and export situation of some products in the metals industry, as follows: [Aluminum industry profits in H1 up about 115% YoY; exports of aluminum semis and aluminum products up about 14% YoY] In H1 2026, aluminum industry profits rose about 115% YoY. This came as aluminum prices increased, while raw material prices such as alumina pulled back. Some enterprises further adopted green power like hydropower and expanded the use of new energy, making production greener and securing more cost advantages. Not only were domestic clients rushing to place orders, but overseas clients were also increasing their orders. In H1 this year, China exported a total of 5.62 million mt of aluminum semis and aluminum products, an increase of about 14% compared with the same period last year. With more orders and busier production lines, environmental protection facilities also operated at full capacity. (CCTV Finance) [Beijing: moderately raising the maximum loan amount for housing provident fund; a married couple may borrow up to 3.4 million yuan for their first home purchase] On the evening of the 7th, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Beijing Municipal Commission of Planning and Natural Resources, and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the City's Real Estate Policies." It mentioned moderately raising the maximum loan amount for housing provident fund. For a home-buying family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum loan amount for a first home purchase is 1.2 million yuan, and for a second home, it is 1 million yuan; if both spouses are contributors, the maximum loan for a first home is 2.4 million yuan, and for a second home, it is 2 million yuan. The maximum loan amount can be further increased under the following conditions: 1. For a household with household registration in the six central urban districts that purchases a first home outside those six districts, the maximum can be increased by 200,000 yuan; 2. For a home purchase that complies with the city's green building development support policies, the maximum can be increased by 400,000 yuan; 3. For families with two or more children of Beijing household registration, the loan amount can be increased by 400,000 yuan. If multiple conditions are met simultaneously, the increases can be stacked. For a family with one provident fund contributor, the maximum increase is 600,000 yuan; for a family where both spouses are contributors, the maximum increase is 1 million yuan. The actual loan amount will be determined based on the family's repayment ability. (Jinshi Data APP) In terms of the US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.35% to 99.6, declining 0.18% for the week and logging a second straight weekly loss. US nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, far below market expectations of an increase of 80,000, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103,000. The labour force participation rate dropped to the lowest in more than five years. The disappointing employment data sent the probability of a September rate hike plunging from 55% to 44%, the 10-year US Treasury yield diving from 4.68% to 4.65%, and the US dollar index breaking below 99.5 during the session. ‘New Fed Wire’ Nick Timiraos: The July employment report will be a difficult one for the Fed to interpret. There is no new evidence of a re-acceleration in the labour market, which may somewhat weaken the case for a rate hike next month, but this still depends on whether inflation data can improve further. Officials held rates steady last week, but three of the twelve officials voted to raise rates. The decline in the unemployment rate will keep the focus on inflation data. (Wallstreetcn) The latest survey results from the New York Fed show that Americans’ overall expectations for the labour market improved in July, and their inflation expectations also changed. Consumers’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations edged down to 3.6% from 3.7%. Three-year-ahead and five-year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged at 3.3% and 3%, respectively. The perceived probability of finding a new job among unemployed workers rose to 46.2%, the highest this year. This increase was most pronounced among those with a high school diploma or less and households with an annual income below $50,000. Consumers grew more optimistic about the stock market, with the probability that stock prices will be higher a year from now reaching the highest level since this data series began in April 2021. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME’s ‘FedWatch’ tool: The probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 59.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 40.1%. For October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 45.3%, with a 44.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 9.8% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Next week, China will release data including the July M2 money supply year-on-year rate; the US will release data including the July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, the ADP employment change for the week ending July 25, the July existing home sales annualized total, the July unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate, the July seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate, the July seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate, the July unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate, the awarded yield on the 10-year Treasury auction for the week ending August 12, the bid-to-cover ratio on the 10-year Treasury auction for the week ending August 12, the initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8, the July PPI year-on-year rate, the July PPI month-on-month rate, the July retail sales month-on-month rate, the August preliminary one-year inflation expectations, the June business inventories month-on-month rate, and the August preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index; the Eurozone will release data including the August Sentix investor confidence index, the June industrial production month-on-month rate, the Q2 GDP year-on-year revised reading, the Q2 seasonally adjusted employment change final quarter-on-quarter rate, and the June seasonally adjusted trade balance; the UK will release data including the Q2 GDP year-on-year preliminary reading, the June three-month GDP month-on-month rate, the June manufacturing production month-on-month rate, the June seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and the June industrial production month-on-month rate; data including the France final July CPI month-on-month rate, the Canada June wholesale sales month-on-month rate, the Japan June trade balance, the Australia Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision for the week of August 11, and the Germany final July CPI month-on-month rate will all be released. Additionally, the National Energy Administration releases nationwide electricity consumption data around the 15th of each month. The Bank of Japan released the summary of opinions from its July monetary policy meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement. RBA Governor Bullock held a monetary policy press conference. 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack delivered remarks. 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin spoke on the economic outlook. RBA Governor Bullock attended a hearing. Crude oil: Oil prices fell in overnight trading, with WTI crude down 0.27% and Brent crude down 0.13%. On a weekly basis, WTI crude fell 8.96% and Brent crude fell 6.31%. The market remained focused on negotiations between the US and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations of US-Iran peace talks suppressed geopolitical risk premiums. Goldman Sachs’ energy research team estimated Brent’s fair value at $80/bbl and maintained its view of a consolidation range of $80–90/bbl. On August 7, US officials stated that Oman and Iran had made progress on the Strait of Hormuz issue, and an agreement is expected to be reached soon. Once an agreement to restore unimpeded commercial shipping is announced, the US will lift its blockade of Iranian ports. US actions will continue to be performance-based and linked to Iran’s fulfillment of its commitments. There was no immediate response from Iran or Oman to the above. (CCTV) It was reported on August 7 that Hassan Qashqavi, spokesperson for Iran’s Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that Iran and Oman had finalized the general framework of a memorandum of understanding on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, with the final text and specific details to be publicly released shortly. On August 6, Iran publicly disclosed preliminary textual details of its proposed strategic management plan for the Strait of Hormuz, which includes provisions barring hostile parties from transiting the strait, with violators subject to fines of up to 20% of cargo value. Iran has repeatedly emphasized in recent days that arrangements related to the Strait of Hormuz should be decided solely through consultations between Iran and Oman, and that no external interference will be accepted. Meanwhile, US President Trump stated on the 6th that the US is participating in negotiations concerning the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV) Next week, the EIA will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook, the IEA will publish its monthly Oil Market Report, and OPEC will issue its monthly Oil Market Report (specific release dates for the monthly reports are to be determined, generally published around 18:00–21:00 Beijing time). A new round of price adjustments for domestic refined oil products in China will open.

SMM August 7 News: Metal Markets: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper edged up 0.1%. SHFE aluminum gained 0.38%. SHFE lead edged up 0.1%. SHFE zinc rose 1.11%, while SHFE tin fell 0.98%. SHFE nickel dropped 1.22%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract edged up 0.09%, while the most-traded foundry aluminum contract fell 0.52%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Stainless steel edged up, iron ore gained 0.35%, and rebar rose 0.17%. Hot-rolled coil (HRC) increased 0.59%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 1.54%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.48%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals mostly fell. LME copper shot up to an intraday high of $14,369.5/mt, a level not seen since January 29, before eventually closing with a 0.4% decline. LME aluminum gained 0.65%. LME lead fell 0.29%. LME zinc rose 0.64%. LME tin dropped 1.43%. LME nickel fell 2.45%. Overnight Precious Metals : COMEX gold fell 0.15%, and COMEX silver dropped 0.81%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold futures contract fell 0.01%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract declined 0.93%. Closing prices as of 7:03 AM, August 7: Macro Front Domestic (China) News: [Guangdong: Promote the Integration of Futures and Spot Markets for Key Commodities like Iron Ore, Crude Oil, and Rubber to Enhance Pricing Influence on Bulk Commodities] The "15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the China (Guangdong) Pilot Free Trade Zone (Draft for Comments)" was released for public comment. It mentioned plans to expand financial opening-up in an orderly manner. International financial institutions will be encouraged to set up headquarters in the zone, promoting the development of cross-border finance, innovative finance, venture capital and investment, wealth management, futures trading, asset management, specialty finance, and offshore services. The Plan aims to accelerate the implementation of projects like the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area International Commercial Bank and the GBA Insurance Service Center. It supports expanding the scale of commodity trading and promoting the integration of futures and spot markets for key commodities like iron ore, crude oil, and rubber to enhance their pricing influence. The Plan will promote the quality improvement and upgrade of fintech regulatory pilots and expand digital yuan application scenarios. It supports pilot programs for cross-border financial innovations such as offshore finance and green finance, and will promote the expansion of pilot programs like cross-border Wealth Management Connect and digital yuan cross-border payments. Institutions within the zone will be supported in developing specialty products like cross-border supply chain finance and intellectual property-pledged financing, and market entities will be guided to develop composite financial products. Pilots for cross-border credit asset transfers and multi-currency integrated accounts will be deepened to promote wider mutual recognition and connectivity of cross-border financial products. (Guangdong Department of Commerce) [CAAM: June Auto Commodity Import and Export Value Hits $31.82 Billion, Up 35.5% YoY] According to data from the General Administration of Customs compiled by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the total import and export value of auto commodities in June 2026 was $31.82 billion, up 8.0% MoM and up 35.5% YoY. The import value was $3.39 billion, down 6.1% MoM and down 18.7% YoY; the export value was $28.43 billion, up 10.0% MoM and up 47.2% YoY. From January to June 2026, the cumulative import and export value of national auto commodities totaled $164.74 billion, up 25.5% YoY. The import value was $19.25 billion, down 11.8% YoY; the export value was $145.49 billion, up 33.0% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.26% to 99.95. Escalating geopolitical tensions weighed on both US stocks and bonds, causing them to fall. Oil prices jumped, reigniting inflation concerns ahead of the key US employment report. Market focus now turns to Friday's US employment report for new clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Stronger-than-expected jobs data could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer interest rates, while any escalation of tensions in the Middle East could push up energy prices and intensify market fluctuations. UBS analyst Ulrike Hoffmann noted: "Short-term risks remain, especially if US data remains firm, oil prices continue to fuel inflation concerns, or the market continues pricing in a more hawkish Fed rate path." Interactive Brokers Senior Economist José Torres stated: "Wall Street reversed again from recent strong gains as the lack of clarity concerning the Strait of Hormuz led investors to question whether the robust rally early this week was justified." (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged by September is 45%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 55%. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through October is 31%, while the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point hike is 51.9%, and a cumulative 50 basis point hike is 17.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a report by the UK's Financial Times, even after a decision not to reveal too many details on rate strategy triggered a sharp sell-off in government bonds, Fed Chairman Warsh is sticking with his usual concise communication style. People close to Warsh say he acknowledges making some mistakes during his first 10 weeks at the helm of the world's most important central bank, including failing to reinforce his key message on price stability and creating confusion over whether his long-term plan to reform the Fed could influence near-term policy decisions. However, they insisted those mistakes were not enough to derail Warsh's reform plans for the Fed. People familiar with the matter also revealed that Warsh is prepared to raise interest rates at the September meeting if upcoming inflation data proves strong and market expectations for higher borrowing costs rise accordingly. The sources added that while the Fed Chairman raised the possibility of shrinking the central bank's $6.7 trillion balance sheet to tighten monetary policy, interest rates remain the primary tool for now and will be used at upcoming meetings if necessary. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro Events: Data releases today include France's Q2 ILO unemployment rate, Germany's June seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany's June seasonally adjusted trade balance, the UK's July Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, France's June trade balance, Switzerland's July consumer confidence index, Canada's July employment change, the US July unemployment rate, US July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US July average hourly earnings YoY, US July average hourly earnings MoM, US July New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, China's July US dollar-denominated trade balance, China's July foreign exchange reserves, and China's July trade balance data. Watches: 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem speaks on the US economy and monetary policy; 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President Barkin delivers remarks. Crude Oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US oil gaining 4% and Brent oil surging 4.57%. Geopolitical risks rekindled, causing oil prices to spike sharply. Wall Street CN mentioned that the new navigation agreement for the Strait of Hormuz, proposed to be signed by Iran and Oman, revealed significant details again, indicating Iran's bid to control the strait. Furthermore, Iran has taken action, striking "enemy targets" near the strait. Iran's Fars News Agency (FARS) reported on Thursday, August 6, local time, that Iran's parliament is reviewing this agreement. Under the agreement, US and Israeli vessels will be barred from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and nations that have "caused harm to Iran" will also be denied passage permits. Following this news, concerns over risks to global energy transportation rapidly intensified in the market. (Wall Street CN) Saudi Arabia cut its main crude oil price for Asia as negotiations proceed on an agreement aimed at easing shipping pressure in the Strait of Hormuz. The price cut came despite Houthi threats jeopardizing the alternative eastbound crude route via the Red Sea. According to a price list, state oil company Saudi Aramco reduced the price of its Arab Light crude for delivery to Asian clients next month by $0.50 per barrel, setting it at a $2/bbl discount to the regional benchmark. A prior survey showed traders expected Saudi Aramco to keep its flagship crude price unchanged. Global benchmark Brent crude prices fell sharply this week and are now trading near $80/bbl. (Jin10 Data APP) Over the past two months, the UAE has transported more crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz than any other producer, providing a critical supply buffer to a global market suffering from a historic energy crisis. According to energy data firm Kpler, a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) loaded with Emirati cargo appeared in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday after turning off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) signal at the end of July. The tanker carries crude from the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. This is just one of dozens of similar tankers that have departed the Persian Gulf since the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) began implementing a new sales strategy. According to trading sources familiar with the matter, since early June, ADNOC has sold over 130 million barrels of crude oil through seven unprecedented tenders. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, August 6: Metal Markets: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market were almost all up. SHFE copper rose 0.4%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.23%. SHFE lead edged up. SHFE zinc rose 1.49%. SHFE tin rose 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 2.1%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract edged down, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 1.36%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.23%. The most-traded silicon metal contract rose 0.12%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 0.65%. Ferrous metals were mostly in the green. Iron ore rose 2%, rebar rose 0.67%, and HRC rose 0.53%. Stainless steel fell 1.51%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.74%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.99%. On the overseas base metals market, as of 11:42, LME metals were almost all down. LME copper fell 0.36%, LME aluminum rose 0.17%, LME lead fell 0.16%, LME zinc fell 0.37%. LME tin fell 1.58%. LME nickel fell 1.9%. In precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose 0.44%, while COMEX silver fell 0.05%. On the domestic precious metals market: SHFE gold rose 3.72%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.19%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 1.05%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 1.4%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping futures (Europe route) contract fell 0.63% to 1,651 points. As of 11:42 on August 6, selected futures midday prices: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today, spot #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and that of SX-EW copper was 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. In the spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to increased arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [PBOC’s open market operations saw a net drain of 269.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. Today, 270.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. [China Gold Association: In H1 2026, increase in domestic gold ETF holdings fell 66.17% YoY] Data from the China Gold Association showed that the increase in domestic gold ETF holdings in H1 2026 was 28.677 mt, down 66.17% from H1 2025. By the end of June 2026, the open interest of gold ETFs in China stood at 276.529 mt. China increased its gold holdings by 40.12 mt in H1 2026, bringing its gold reserves to 2,346.45 mt by month-end June, ranking fifth globally. The country had added to its gold reserves for 20 consecutive months, Nov 2024-Jun 2026. (Jin10 Data APP) On August 6, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 6.7895 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 11:42, the US dollar index edged up 0.03% to 99.72. Cooling US ADP employment data contrasted with elevated ISM services costs, raising stagflation concerns. US ADP employment data missed expectations! The US ADP private payrolls increased by only 44,000 in July, the lowest this year, making Friday's non-farm payrolls data critical. US ADP private-sector employment rose by just 44,000 in July, a new low for the year and below expectations. The goods-producing sector was under pressure, signaling a cooling labour market. However, job-stayers' wages saw robust YoY growth of 7%, indicating persistent structural tightness. The market is focused on Friday's non-farm payrolls data; if it follows the same trend, it would confirm steady employment, supporting the Fed's continued focus on combating inflation. The US ISM Services PMI continued expanding in July, showing demand-side resilience but intensifying stagflation risks. The US ISM services index rose to 54.1 in July, a 0.1-point uptick from June but below the expected 54.5. The new orders index surpassed expectations to hit 57.2, and the prices paid index exceeded forecasts to reach 70.3, while the employment index fell short of expectations, dropping to 47.4 and into contraction territory. Rising costs alongside contracting employment presented stagflationary characteristics. The US Treasury kept its quarterly debt issuance size unchanged, with $40 trillion in debt pressure looming. The latest Treasury refunding statement maintained current auction sizes for coupon-bearing securities but changed the description for future issuance from "increases" to "adjustments," preserving flexibility for future policy shifts. The borrowing estimate for the current quarter was raised to $739 billion, with the total federal debt about to surpass $40 trillion. The Treasury continues to rely on short-term bills to bridge the gap, making financing costs more sensitive to interest rates. The market fears that delaying adjustments could trigger a larger shock from long-term debt issuance later. (From Wall Street Horizon APP) Data: Today will see the release of Switzerland's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, the Eurozone's June retail sales MoM, US July Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and US June wholesale sales MoM, among other data. To watch: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will speak on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voter and San Francisco Fed President Daly will deliver remarks. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, oil prices in both markets edged down, with US crude down 0.28% and Brent crude down 0.13%. The market is focusing on the progress of talks between Iran and Oman. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said in an interview on August 5 that the agreement between Iran and Oman on merchant ship passage through the Strait of Hormuz is close to being finalised. According to local news from the Iranian side on the 5th, both the southern route through Omani territorial waters and the northern route within Iranian territorial waters will be closed, establishing a new passage model in the Strait of Hormuz that differs from the past 60 years. Additionally, Gharibabadi denied that Iran is in negotiations with the US, but stated that Iran has received messages from the US side, and said the US has expressed readiness to resume fulfilling commitments under the previously signed memorandum of understanding. (CCTV) On August 5 local time, US President Trump said in a speech at an event in Las Vegas that recent oil prices have fallen and stabilised to some extent, "We may have to let it go up again," but he "hopes it won't come to that." Trump did not elaborate on the meaning of this statement. An analysis by the Associated Press pointed out that although Trump has repeatedly assured that the war with Iran is about to end, oil prices typically rise anew with the onset of conflicts between the two sides. (CCTV International) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM August 6 News: Metal market: Overnight, domestic base metals rose broadly. SHFE copper rose 0.56%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.29%. SHFE lead was flat at 15,640 yuan/mt. SHFE zinc rose 1.6%. SHFE tin rose 1.7%. SHFE nickel fell 0.17%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures rose 2.56%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.13%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel fell 0.72%. Iron ore rose 1.85%. Rebar rose 0.74%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.53%. Coking coal and coke: The most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.94%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.56%. Overnight, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose broadly. LME copper rose 0.75%. LME aluminum rose 0.81%. LME lead was flat at $1,890/mt. LME zinc rose 2.31%. LME tin rose 2.1%. LME nickel edged down 0.06%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold rose 3.74%, and COMEX silver rose 3.34%. Overnight, SHFE gold most-traded rose 3.58%, and SHFE silver most-traded rose 3.72%. OANDA Senior Market Analyst Kelvin Wong said, "The link between gold and oil prices remains, as oil prices have a huge impact on inflationary pressures in the global economy. If we can see a clear roadmap for further de-escalation of the (Middle East) situation, gold prices could continue to rise." Traders now expect a 59% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 policy meeting, down from 67% a day earlier. (Jin10 Data APP) Overnight closing quotes as of 7:11 on August 6: Macro front Domestic: [Foreign Ministry: Firmly Opposes US Abusing National Power to Unreasonably Suppress Chinese Enterprises] In response to reports that the US is drafting regulations to suppress Chinese enterprises, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated on the 5th when answering a reporter's question that China firmly opposes the US abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. A reporter asked: It is reported that the US is drafting regulations to ban the import of China-made new-type optical transceiver modules and is preparing to impose additional tariffs and set a price floor on polysilicon and related products. Given the US's previous sanctions and restrictions on Huawei, how does China assess the planned US actions? What specific measures will be taken to protect the rights and interests of Chinese enterprises? Lin Jian said, China firmly opposes the US overstretching the concept of national security and abusing its national power to unreasonably suppress Chinese enterprises. Protectionism cannot boost US competitiveness. The US's actions severely hinder normal economic and trade exchanges between China and the US and are not in the interests of any party, including US enterprises and consumers. China will continue to firmly safeguard the legitimate and lawful rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangxi: Trade-in Policy Boosts Smart Home Appliance Consumption] With the implementation of national subsidies combined with local expansion policies coinciding with the summer consumption peak season, the Guangxi home appliance market welcomed a new round of consumption boom. During visits, it was found that the trade-in policy continued to gain momentum, smart home appliances accelerated their entry into millions of households, and consumption upgrading trends were evident. Since the beginning of this year, Guangxi's consumer goods trade-in program has subsidized 2.061 million units of digital and smart products, 95,000 vehicles, and 2.553 million units of home appliances, with total subsidy funds of 2.96 billion yuan, boosting commodity sales of 26.7 billion yuan. Among these, the proportion of county-level participants reached 45.2%, and the proportion of subsidy amount enjoyed in rural areas accounted for 37.1%, indicating rural consumption potential was being rapidly released. Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics at Beijing Technology and Business University, stated that the trade-in policy, on the basis of continued policy support, has upgraded to a "demand + experience" dual-drive. The national, local, and enterprise levels have established a triple subsidy linkage system, reducing household replacement costs and stimulating consumption vitality while helping the whole society save energy and reduce carbon, promoting the popularization of green and low-carbon lifestyles. (Xinhua News Agency) [CAAM Initiates Establishment of Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee] Hosted by CAAM, the 16th China Auto Forum was held in Jiading, Shanghai. During the forum, CAAM officially announced the initiation of the establishment of the "Autonomous Driving Industry Development Joint Committee" and held the launching ceremony. At the ceremony, CAAM stated that the Joint Committee will adhere to the principle of "taking safety as the bottom line, with innovation as the driving force, and using coordination to promote development," working with all industry parties to jointly promote the safe, orderly, and large-scale development of China's autonomous driving industry, contributing industrial strength to building an automotive powerhouse and cultivating new quality productive forces. The Joint Committee sincerely invites OEMs, autonomous driving solution providers, chip and sensor companies, software and communication firms, testing and certification agencies, universities, and research institutes, and other relevant industry chain entities to join in discussing development plans, building collaborative mechanisms, and sharing industrial achievements. (CAAM) [DCE: Coke Options to Be Listed for Trading from September 2, 2026 (Wednesday)] The DCE announced that coke options will be listed for trading starting September 2, 2026 (Wednesday). The position limit for coke options is 5,000 lots. Coke options and coke futures have separate position limits. The combined buy holdings of all call options and sell holdings of all put options, as well as the combined buy holdings of all put options and sell holdings of all call options, in an options contract of a certain month for non-futures company members and clients, must not exceed the position limit for the options product. Positions deemed as acting in concert shall be aggregated for calculation. [CPCA: Preliminary Estimates Show July National Passenger Car Market Retail Sales at 1.506 Million Units, Down 18% YoY] Preliminary data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed that from July 1 to 31, national passenger car market retail sales totaled 1.506 million units, down 18% YoY and down 6% MoM. Year-to-date cumulative retail sales reached 10.207 million units, down 20% YoY. National passenger car wholesale volumes by automakers from July 1 to 31 were 2.241 million units, up 1% YoY but down 5% MoM, with year-to-date cumulative wholesale volumes at 14.788 million units, down 5% YoY. (from Wall Street News APP) Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index extended the decline of the previous trading day to fall 0.17% to 99.69. US private employment growth in July was significantly below expectations, indicating that labor market momentum had cooled somewhat, but wage growth remained resilient, and the overall employment situation remained stable. Data released by ADP Research Institute on Wednesday showed that private sector employment increased by 44,000 in July, below the 65,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey of economists and the lowest level this year, following a revised figure of 95,000 in June. The US government's non-farm payrolls report to be released on Friday is closely watched by the market. If the data is confirmed, the current employment trend would support the Fed's continued focus on still-high inflation. (Wall Street News) Driven by a rebound in new orders and business activity, the US services sector maintained a stable expansion trend in July. Data released on Wednesday showed that the July ISM Services Index rose 0.1 point to 54.1, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. The new orders growth rate accelerated, and the gauge of business activity rose to a five-month high, indicating consumer demand remained resilient. However, rising service and material costs continued to pressure enterprises. As the temporary deal between the US and Iran broke down, driving crude oil and gasoline prices higher, the ISM Prices Paid Index surged to 70.3 in July. With persistently high costs squeezing corporate profits and affecting consumer spending, some companies may choose to delay hiring. The employment gauge of the institute indicated the most pronounced contraction in employment since March. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed Governor Cook reiterated her stance: if inflation does not slow, she is prepared to raise rates , and warned that policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting for inflation to return to the 2% target. Although Cook supported the Fed's decision to hold rates steady at the July policy meeting, she warned that the longer inflation remains above the Fed's target, the harder it will be to tame. In a speech at an event in Alaska, Cook said, "If I don't see signs that inflation is sustainably declining soon, I am ready to act. With inflation above target for five consecutive years, the risk that inflation becomes entrenched in price- and wage-setting behaviour is rising, which would lead to more persistent inflation that is harder to address." But Cook stated that the fading impact of tariffs, the possibility of lower oil prices, and the easing of pressures related to the AI boom could provide a buffer for inflation, thereby avoiding the need to tighten policy . She said her top priority remains bringing inflation back to the Fed's target. In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari stated that the Fed should now "start gradually raising" rates to lower inflation and avoid the need for more aggressive hikes in the future. Kashkari was one of three voting members who supported a 25-basis-point rate hike at last week's FOMC meeting. He said that with strong corporate earnings and resilient consumers and labor market, there is no evidence that monetary policy is clearly restrictive, making it time to start gradually raising rates. He stressed that this is not advocating for large rate hikes, but rather hoping for "small steps" to avoid the need for sharp policy tightening in the future if inflation becomes entrenched. He added that he is unsure what action the FOMC will take in September, and incoming data will play a key role. Meanwhile, Kashkari said that Fed Chairman Warsh did not pressure him, once telling him: "Do what you think is right for the economy." (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September is 45.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 54.4%. For October, the probability of no change is 33.5%, a cumulative 25 bps hike is 52.1%, and a cumulative 50 bps hike is 14.5%. Macro: Today, data to be released include Switzerland's July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone's June retail sales MoM, US July Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1, US July Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, and US June wholesale sales MoM. Focus on: Fed Governor Lisa Cook's speech on the economic outlook; 2027 FOMC voting member and San Francisco Fed President Daly's speech. Crude oil: Overnight, oil futures showed mixed performance, with WTI falling 0.91% and Brent edging up 0.08%. Iran and Oman are expected to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, calming oil prices. Wall Street News mentioned that Iran systematically disclosed more details about negotiations with Oman on new transit arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz for the first time and publicly explained the latest contacts between the US and Iran regarding the strait's reopening. On Wednesday, the 5th local time, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said that Iran and Oman are working on a new arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz that differs from the past 60 years. According to the new route design, commercial vessels, whether entering or exiting the strait, would need to pass through Iranian territorial waters in some sections. According to CCTV News, he stressed that arrangements related to the strait should be decided solely by Iran and Oman, and Iran would never accept the involvement of any external forces. (Wall Street News) The US exported a record volume of distillate fuel overseas last week while domestic inventories fell again, indicating that the global scramble for diesel is increasingly drawing down US supplies. According to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, distillate fuel exports rose to 1.9 million barrels per day last week, the highest level on record, surpassing the previous peak set in May. Distillate fuels mainly include diesel, heating oil, and other products. At the onset of the US-Iran war, the global diesel market was thrown into disarray. Global fuel supply was disrupted as crude and product tankers could not pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Since then, months of Ukrainian attacks on Russian refining facilities further exacerbated supply pressures. This has made the US one of the few countries globally with sufficient diesel production capacity to churn out large volumes of fuel and export it overseas. US diesel exports have exceeded 1.5 million barrels per day for five consecutive weeks. Even with refiners running at full throttle to produce diesel, US fuel stockpiles are still falling. As of last week, distillate fuel inventories, on a seasonally adjusted basis, had dropped to the lowest level for the same period since 1996. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM, Aug 5: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals rose almost across the board. SHFE copper rose 0.79%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.15%. SHFE lead rose 2.61%. SHFE zinc rose 1.38%. SHFE tin rose 0.5%. SHFE nickel fell 0.78%. In addition, foundry aluminum most-traded futures were flat at 23,365 yuan/mt, alumina most-traded contract rose 0.99%, lithium carbonate most-traded contract rose 1.45%, silicon metal most-traded contract rose 0.72%, and polysilicon most-traded futures rose 1.83%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.93%, rebar rose 0.34%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.5%. Stainless steel fell 2.09%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal most-traded contract rose 3.27%, and coke most-traded contract rose 2.13%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:45, LME metals broadly rose. LME copper was flat at $14,043/mt, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, LME lead rose 0.71%, LME zinc rose 0.59%, LME tin rose 0.13%, and LME nickel fell 0.2%. Precious metals: as of 11:45, COMEX gold rose 0.8% and COMEX silver rose 1.33%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.92%, and SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 5.35%. In addition, as of the midday close, platinum most-traded futures rose 7.04%, and palladium most-traded futures rose 6.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European container shipping freight index futures contract fell 8.96% to 1,635 points. As of 11:45 Aug 5, selected futures midday quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Spot prices of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 110 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt; SX-EW copper quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/mt, up 30 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 106,990 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt, and SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt, up 460 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories ended a two-day rising streak and declined again, mainly due to fewer arrivals... Macro Front China: [PBOC net drains 201.5 billion yuan from the open market today] The PBOC conducted 5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from last. Today, 206.5 billion yuan of reverse repos mature. US Dollar: As of 11:45, the US dollar index fell 0.05% to 99.82. Oil prices fell further, with markets betting that the tight energy supply situation will ease, potentially reducing inflationary pressures, and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. (Wall Street CN) According to the CME "FedWatch," the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 41.6%, while there is a 58.4% probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike. For October, the probability of rates staying unchanged is 30.5%, with a 53.9% probability of a cumulative 25bp hike and a 15.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp hike. (Jin10 Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent’s policy reaction function has shifted to a less dovish stance. His remarks this year suggest that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models showing that the Fed’s policy rate could be anywhere from more than 25bp to over 100bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he put forward two points. He first defended Warsh’s decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I believe every meeting should be open, and market participants should judge for themselves... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best outcome." Secondly, he did propose a policy reaction function that could be seen as dovish, arguing that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will be the impact of rising short-term rates? We’ll have to wait and see." He raised this question, but then responded by noting that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "In core inflation, after stripping out the more volatile components influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I expect this to continue." (Jin10 Data APP) On the economic data front, US job openings declined somewhat in June, but hiring rebounded slightly, indicating that labour market demand remained relatively stable. eToro’s Bret Kenwell noted that this Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the next key period: "If the data is strong, especially amid still-elevated inflation, it will reinforce expectations for a September rate hike; but if the data is weak, combined with last week’s lower-than-expected GDP growth, it could provide more justification for the Fed to stay on hold." (Wall Street CN) Data: Today will see the release of France’s June industrial production m/m, final July services PMIs for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, Eurozone June PPI m/m, US July ADP employment change, final US July S&P Global services PMI, and US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI, among other data. Watch: 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude Oil: As of 11:45, oil prices in both markets extended the declines from the previous two trading days, continuing to fall, with WTI down 1.36% and Brent down 1.06%. Qatar stated that both the US and Iran are optimistic about an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the relevant proposal has been drafted. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the agreement could be finalized on Tuesday or Wednesday. Affected by this, crude oil futures continued their downward trend. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global energy supply; if reopened, it is expected to promote the normalization of global oil supply. According to Xinhua News Agency, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baqaei said on August 4 that Iran is still in negotiations with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, with "positive progress" on technical and political levels. US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that an agreement could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday this week. According to a report by the US news website Axios on August 4, regional sources and US officials indicated that the US, Iran, and Oman are "close to reaching" an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US side hopes to announce the deal on August 5. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM August 5: Metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market broadly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.68%. SHFE aluminum rose 0.08%. SHFE lead rose 1.79%, SHFE zinc rose 0.84%, and SHFE tin rose 0.63%. SHFE nickel fell 0.75%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.19%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.09%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 1.25%, iron ore was flat at 699.5 yuan/mt, rebar fell 0.07%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.01%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals broadly rose. LME copper rose 1.41%. LME aluminum fell 0.29%. LME lead rose 1.23%. LME zinc rose 0.74%. LME tin rose 0.84%. LME nickel fell 0.35%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.07%, and COMEX silver rose 3.27%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.87%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.45%. CITIC Securities said in a research note that gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly this year, but they believe gold is still in a major bull market, citing accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, difficult-to-heal geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued support from global central bank gold purchases. They therefore view the current pullback as only a temporary correction within the bull market. The current drawdown has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is likely the bottom zone of this round. Looking ahead, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to shift from a drag to a boost for gold prices, the Fed’s monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and the surge in US military spending is pushing up the deficit; gold prices are expected to return to an upward trajectory within the year. (Jin10 Data App) As of 7:11 on August 5, closing prices for overnight trading were: Macro front China: [MIIT: Strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs of road motor vehicle products, and strengthen the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions] On August 4, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) organized a discussion with road motor vehicle inspection and testing institutions to analyze the current product safety and inspection work situation and to arrange efforts to regulate the competitive order and improve the quality of inspection and testing in the road motor vehicle sector. The meeting called for inspection and testing institutions to thoroughly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, firmly resist irrational competition, and strictly control product testing. First, conduct in-depth self-checks to systematically identify problems in the inspection and testing of road motor vehicle products and earnestly carry out rectifications. Second, strengthen industry self-discipline, focus on main responsibilities, reinforce responsibility, enhance integrity and self-discipline, and jointly safeguard the credibility of the entire industry. Third, hold the bottom line of product safety by implementing quality control measures for sample vehicle management, personnel management, and process management, strengthen the screening and testing/verification of risks and hidden dangers in "aggressive" innovative designs, and enhance the safety evaluation of combined driver assistance and autonomous driving functions. Fourth, improve capabilities by actively participating in the formulation and revision of standards and regulations, accelerate the establishment of a testing and evaluation system for intelligent connected vehicles, strengthen the capacity for road motor vehicle inspection and testing, and provide objective, fair information and professional opinions to the industry. Going forward, the MIIT will work with relevant departments to in-depth carry out actions on production consistency and quality improvement for road motor vehicle products, intensify work inspections, urge and guide inspection and testing institutions to fulfill their role as "gatekeepers" of product safety, improve the quality of inspection and testing work, impose joint penalties on institutions with problems, and resolutely hold the bottom line of product safety. (From the Wallstreetcn App) [PBOC: Net injection of 50 billion yuan via open market government bond transactions in July] The PBOC released its liquidity injection data for various tools in July 2026. In terms of central bank lending, the standing lending facility (SLF) recorded a net withdrawal of 1 billion yuan; the medium-term lending facility (MLF) recorded a net injection of 100 billion yuan; and the pledged supplementary lending (PSL) recorded a net withdrawal of 116.1 billion yuan. In terms of open market operations, 7-day reverse repos recorded a net injection of 249.5 billion yuan, open market government bond transactions recorded a net injection of 50 billion yuan, and central treasury cash management recorded a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Dollar front: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.11% to 99.86. According to CME "Fed Watch," the probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in September was 41.6%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 58.4%. The probability that the Fed leaves rates unchanged through October was 30.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike was 53.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike was 15.5%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent, in an interview with CNBC, said Fed Chairman Warsh wants to preserve flexibility to achieve the best outcome. When discussing the strategy of the Fed and Warsh, he called it a "detox" for the Fed. He said every meeting should be live (full of possibilities) and participants should exercise their own judgment. He believed the Fed will balance its growth and inflation objectives, and he trusted that Warsh will help the Fed strike a balance between the two. On the economy and inflation, he noted that after stripping out sectors affected by energy prices, core inflation performance has been very steady, and underlying inflation data has been very mild, a trend he expects to continue. He also noted that core inflation is slowing. "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos wrote that US Treasury Secretary Bessent's policy reaction function has shifted to become less dovish. His comments this year suggested that the Fed should continue to hold rates steady. Earlier this year, Bessent cited models indicating the Fed's policy rate could be as little as more than 25 bp or as much as more than 100 bp above the neutral rate. Today (August 4), he made two points. First, he defended Warsh's decision last week not to articulate any policy reaction function: "I think every meeting should be open, and market participants should make their own judgments... I think Warsh wants to keep his options open to achieve the best results." Second, he did lay out what could be seen as a dovish reaction function, advocating that near-term shocks should be ignored: "What exactly will the rise in short-term interest rates bring? We will wait and see." He raised that question but then responded by pointing out that underlying inflation is "very mild... very steady." "Within core inflation, after stripping out the volatile components significantly influenced by energy, the rest has been very steady. I think that will continue." (Jin10 Data App) Macro front: Data to be released today include China's July RatingDog Services PMI, France's June industrial output m/m, the final France July Services PMI, the final Germany July Services PMI, the final Eurozone July Services PMI, the final UK July Services PMI, the Eurozone June PPI m/m, the US July ADP employment change, the final US July S&P Global Services PMI, and the US July ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Also on the radar: a speech by Kansas City Fed President Schmid, a 2028 FOMC voter, on the Fed, monetary policy, and the agricultural economic outlook. Crude oil front: Overnight, both crude oil futures extended their declines from the previous trading day, with WTI falling 6.47% and Brent dropping 6.08%. Wallstreetcn noted that on Tuesday, August 4 (US Eastern Time), Reuters, citing informed sources, reported that Iran has abandoned its earlier demand for full control over two-way shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and instead proposed that Iran manage all vessel navigation entering the Strait while retaining supervisory rights and the right to intervene when necessary over vessels departing the Strait. Xinhua News Agency, citing US media, reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Tuesday that an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz could be reached on August 4 or 5. Also according to Xinhua, US Secretary of State Rubio said on the same day that negotiations with Iran on reopening the Strait had "made progress" but a deal had not yet been finalized. The sharp drop in oil prices meant cooling inflation expectations for the market. Tony Miano of Wells Fargo Investment Institute noted: "The market is reacting to the prospect that a reopening of Hormuz could help normalize global oil supplies and ease recent energy price pressures, and lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns." However, he cautioned that inflation is unlikely to normalize overnight, and even after energy pressures ease, overall prices could remain sticky in the near term. (Wallstreetcn)

SMM August 4 news: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals almost all rose. SHFE copper rose 0.91%, SHFE aluminum rose 1%. SHFE lead rose 0.23%. SHFE zinc fell 0.58%. SHFE tin rose 0.81%. SHFE nickel rose 1.55%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures rose 0.58%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.38%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.36%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 1.4%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was flat at 702.5 yuan/mt, rebar edged up, while hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 2.06%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.91%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.85%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:41, LME metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.77%, LME aluminum rose 0.56%, LME lead rose 0.80%, LME zinc rose 0.61%. LME tin rose 0.77%. LME nickel rose 0.81%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold rose 0.54%, COMEX silver rose 1.87%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 0.35%, the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.64%. Additionally, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures edged up, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.54%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European freight futures contract rose 3.19% to 1,843 points. As of 11:41, August 4, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and fundamentals Zinc: In Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot were mainly traded at 24,760-24,950 yuan/mt, Zijin was traded at 24,880-25,010 yuan/mt, and #1 zinc ingot were mainly traded at around 24,760-24,870 yuan/mt. Zijin was quoted at a premium of around 0-30 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,220 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of around 30-120 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 110 yuan/mt against Shanghai market. Macro front Domestic: [State Administration for Market Regulation: 20 places including Beijing, Shanghai, etc., designated as national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites] The General Office of the State Administration for Market Regulation issued a notice on promoting typical experiences and practices of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. Among them, Beijing Haidian District, Beijing Tongzhou District, Tianjin Binhai High-tech Zone, Shanghai Pudong New Area, Shanghai Fengxian District, Jiangsu Nanjing, Jiangsu Wuxi, Jiangsu Suzhou, Zhejiang Hangzhou, Zhejiang Ningbo, Zhejiang Wenzhou, Anhui Hefei, Fujian Xiamen Haicang District, Hubei Wuhan, Hunan Changsha, Guangdong Guangzhou, Guangdong Shenzhen, Guangdong Foshan, Chongqing Jiangjin District, Sichuan Chengdu Wuhou District were identified as the first batch of national trade secret protection innovation pilot sites. ()Market Regulation Administration [PBOC Net Withdraws 559 Billion Yuan from Open Market Today] PBOC conducted 46.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operations, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous session. Today, 605.5 billion yuan reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen New Home Sales Up Over 30% YoY in July] According to data from Shenzhen's real estate information platform, the city's new commercial housing sales totaled 3,773 units in July, down 35.2% MoM but up 19.3% YoY; among these, residential sales were 2,664 units, down 6.8% MoM but up 32.5% YoY. Looking at a longer period, new home sales from January to July totaled 35,104 units, a slight 0.7% YoY increase; of these, residential sales totaled 21,935 units, down 10.6% YoY, with the decline narrowing compared with H1. (JIN10 APP) On the US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index rose 0.05% to 100.01. The July US manufacturing PMI data showed strong demand, surging output, and accelerated hiring, marking the fastest expansion in over four years, which to some extent offset the interest rate cut expectations driven by declining oil prices, leaving overall market rate hike expectations relatively unchanged. According to CME FedWatch, the market priced in a 64.5% probability of at least a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Fed in September. (Wall Street CN) (JIN10 APP) Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US ISM manufacturing PMI registered 55.6 in July, the highest level since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates sector expansion, and the industry has remained above that threshold for seven consecutive months. The production index rose to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge indicated that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New orders — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing momentum has been strong this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, robust business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only sector reporting contraction was chemical products. Fed’s Williams said he remains optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise interest rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy maintains solid momentum, "I think some of the main factors that have pushed up inflation over the past year and a half will no longer play such a large role, and the disinflationary forces we observed earlier should reemerge."He added: "I am watching very closely what happens to core inflation measures over the coming months, whether that is consistent with inflation trending down to 2% and continuing to move lower, so that we achieve that sustained 2% inflation goal over the longer run by 2028." He also stated: "My own forecast is that inflation will come down somewhat in H2 this year and pull back further next year." Williams reiterated that the current monetary policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to the target. However, he noted: "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2%... then it would be entirely appropriate to take action to get us back on a path to 2% inflation." (Jin10 Data APP) In terms of data: Today, the US June trade balance, US June JOLTS job openings, US June factory orders MoM, and other figures will be released. Items to watch: SpaceX announces Q2 2026 results; FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit takes place from August 4-6, with Samsung, SK, and other storage giants in attendance. In terms of crude oil: As of 11:41, both crude benchmarks were up, with WTI rising 0.73% and Brent gaining 1.16%. With the outlook for US-Iran negotiations uncertain and market concerns over supply disruptions persisting, oil prices rebounded after the previous session's plunge. Shipping tracking data shows that six empty Saudi-flagged supertankers changed course in the Gulf of Aden in recent days, heading toward southern Africa. One of them is destined for Gibraltar. On August 3, the six tankers were sailing in formation in the high seas off the coast of Somalia. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market at a glance: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Cobalt & Lithium Morning Call: Raw Material Prices Diverge, Industry Demand Maintains Structural Support] This week, industry chain prices showed divergence. Lithium ore, lithium chemicals, nickel chemicals and cobalt products were overall under pressure. Downstream procurement remained focused on long-term contract cargo pick-ups and essential restocking, and the market still held expectations of increasing supply and price declines in the long term. Cathode material side, ternary system prices pulled back along with raw material costs, while LFP and iron phosphate strengthened slightly, supported by order growth and cost support. Anode and separator markets held stable overall, and electrolyte moved up, driven by rising additive and solvent prices. Demand from energy storage, commercial vehicles and markets outside China maintained good performance, supporting continued growth in the industry's production schedules, but recovery on the consumption side remained relatively slow.

At the beginning of this week, the overall industry chain was relatively weak, with the price center of electrolytic metals, intermediates, and salts continuing to decline. During the traditional off-season, downstream purchasing was mainly small-scale, just-in-need buying. Cost support from virgin materials remained, but recycled materials, low-priced older stocks, and re-dissolution routes persistently depressed market psychological price levels, intensifying price negotiation divergences between upstream and downstream. The ternary cathode precursor and ternary cathode material markets weakened simultaneously due to falling raw material prices. August orders showed steady growth, but consumer-side demand had yet to recover significantly. The supply-demand balance for LCO remained weak, and short-term prices were expected to remain stable.

SMM August 4 News: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market generally rose. SHFE copper gained 0.43%. SHFE aluminum added 0.61%. SHFE lead fell 1.17%, SHFE zinc dropped 0.82%, and SHFE tin rose 0.44%. SHFE nickel climbed 1.13%. Additionally, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.08%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract edged up 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly declined. Stainless steel surged 3.09%, iron ore fell 0.71%, and rebar slipped 0.4%. Hot-rolled coil fell 0.56%. In coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 0.55%, while the most-traded coke contract fell 0.46%. Overnight on the overseas metals market, LME base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper gained 0.33%. LME aluminum rose 1%. LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc dipped 0.16%. LME tin inched up 0.03%. LME nickel slipped 0.26%. Overnight in the precious metals segment : COMEX gold rose 0.09%, while COMEX silver gained 1.05%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 0.11%, while the most-traded SHFE silver contract added 0.34%. As of 7:17 a.m. on August 4, overnight closing prices: Macro Front Domestic side: [Li Qiang Signs State Council Decree to Promulgate Revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits] Premier Li Qiang recently signed a State Council decree to promulgate the revised Regulations on the Protection of Layout-Designs of Integrated Circuits, effective October 15, 2026. The Regulations aim to protect exclusive rights to integrated circuit layout-designs, encourage technological innovation in integrated circuits, and promote scientific and technological development. The Regulations consist of six chapters and 54 articles, with the main revisions as follows. First, clarify the overall requirements. The protection of integrated circuit layout-designs shall implement the strategic deployment of the Party and the state on intellectual property rights, expand the scope of protection, and emphasize good faith. Second, improve the application and examination procedures. Regulate fraudulent applications, refine material requirements, improve rejection and revocation procedures, and add procedures for restoration of rights. Third, strengthen protection of exclusive rights. Clarify standards for defining the scope of rights and increase compensation for infringement. Fourth, promote the utilization of layout-designs. Strengthen public services, specify reward and remuneration measures, improve requirements for transfer, licensing, and pledge, and regulate the exercise of co-owners' rights. (Xinhua News Agency) [NDRC and National Energy Administration Issue the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction] The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration issued the 15th Five-Year Plan for New-Type Power System Construction. It proposes that by 2030, the new-type power system will be initially established: a green and low-carbon power supply pattern will have basically taken shape, with non-fossil energy accounting for 50% of power generation; power supply capability will be continuously enhanced, complementarity and mutual support among power systems will be greatly improved, and security and resilience will be significantly strengthened, keeping power supply adequacy at a reasonable level to effectively meet the electricity needs of socioeconomic development and people's aspirations for a better life; a safe, reliable, green, low-carbon, strong, resilient, intelligent, and flexible new-type power grid will be initially built, giving full play to its role as a resource allocation platform and service functions, achieving high-level consumption of over 2.8 billion kW of new energy, and establishing a charging infrastructure network capable of supporting more than 110 million EVs. The institutional mechanisms for the new-type power system will be further improved, and a unified national power market system will be basically established. The plan proposes promoting wide-load high-efficiency retrofits for existing coal-fired power units, controlling the increase in coal consumption under low-load operating conditions to within 25%. It also calls for promoting full-load denitrification retrofits for coal-fired units based on local conditions. Implement a batch of cross-generation upgrade projects for 600,000-kW-level units. In areas with suitable conditions, build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuel co-firing and carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects. Formulate policies for the integrated development of coal power and new energy, support the priority implementation of a batch of coal power-new energy integration projects in areas where conditions permit, carry out retrofits to enhance coal power's regulating capability, and promote the coupling and integration of coal power and new energy systems to achieve integrated regulation and delivery and reduce coal-fired power generation. [SHFE Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to copper, gold, rebar, and natural rubber futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by the exchange. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. [Shanghai International Energy Exchange Issues Notice on Launching Spread Orders] To meet market needs and improve market operation efficiency, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange will launch spread orders starting from August 24, 2026 (i.e., the night continuous trading session on August 21, 2026). Initially, spread orders will be applicable to crude oil futures. Subsequent plans to extend to other products and introduce cross-product spread combinations will be notified separately by INE. Spread orders are supported only for futures products, with a minimum order size of 1 lot and a maximum of 500 lots. (Shanghai International Energy Exchange) [CISA: In the Next Stage, Strictly Implement the Steel Export License Management System] In H1 2026, steel exports saw an overall decline in volume and stable prices, while steel billet exports surged significantly. Overseas, 12 original anti-dumping investigations were initiated against Chinese steel, and trade friction pressure remained unabated. In H2, external constraints tightened: the EU's new steel safeguard measures reduced quotas and introduced the "melted and poured" origin rule, and coupled with global geopolitical disruptions, the export environment became more complex. In the next stage, strictly implement the steel export license management system, adhere to the orientation of "promoting high-end products, stabilizing peripheral markets, and strict supervision," strengthen industry self-discipline, optimize the export structure, deepen cultivation of peripheral and emerging markets, actively respond to trade frictions, proactively adapt to international rules, and drive the transformation of exports toward high-end and green development to achieve steady and orderly progress. (CISA) US Dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.19% to 99.97. In July, the US manufacturing sector grew at its fastest pace in more than four years, driven by sustained strong demand, surging production, and increased hiring. The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 in July, the highest since May 2022. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, and the sector has now been above that level for seven consecutive months. The Production Index climbed to 58.5, the highest since the end of 2021, while the employment gauge signaled that manufacturers added workers for the first time since September 2023. New order growth — a signal of demand — also rebounded. Manufacturing has been robust this year, with factories benefiting from solid consumer demand, firm business investment, and government spending on national defense. All but one manufacturing industry reported growth in July, including printing, apparel, and electrical equipment. The only industry reporting contraction was chemical products. According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in September is 32.8%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 67.2%. For the October meeting, the probability of holding rates steady is 23.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp hike is 57.3% and a cumulative 50bp hike is 19.3%. Fed's Williams said he remains optimistic that inflation pressures will gradually ease, but if that does not happen, the Fed will not hesitate to raise rates to ensure price pressures return to target. In an interview with Reuters last Friday, Williams said that if energy prices and trade tariffs have peaked and the economy remains on a solid footing, "I think some of the main factors that had been pushing up inflation over the last year and a half or so will fade, and some of the disinflationary forces that we had observed earlier should reassert themselves." He added, "I'm watching very carefully the next few months' readings on core inflation to see if they are consistent with inflation moving toward 2% and continuing to trend lower, to give us confidence that we can achieve our 2% inflation goal durably by 2028." He also said, "My own forecast is that inflation will come down in the second half of this year and come down further next year." Williams reiterated that the current policy stance is "well positioned" to bring inflation back to target. But he noted, "If we are not on a path to bring inflation down to 2% ... then taking action to get us back to that 2% path would be entirely appropriate." (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Data from the Bank of Japan's accounts suggest that Japan likely spent about $34 billion on Friday to intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, building on the coordinated action with the US on Thursday. Based on a comparison of BOJ account data released Monday with money broker forecasts, the estimated intervention was about 5.33 trillion yen (approximately $34 billion). Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier Monday that Japan had stepped into the market on Friday. The continued yen-buying by Japanese authorities underscores their determination to counter bearish bets against the yen. The US Treasury joined the effort last week to shore up the yen, marking the closest coordination on exchange rate policy in 15 years. Analysis of the BOJ accounts does not reflect the scale of US intervention in the market, but US involvement may have reduced the amount of funds Japan needed to achieve the same exchange rate effect. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Today, data such as the US Trade Balance for June, US JOLTS Job Openings for June, and US Factory Orders MoM for June will be released. Attention should be paid to: SpaceX's Q2 2026 earnings release; the FMS 2026 Flash Memory Summit to be held August 4-6, with storage giants such as Samsung and SK hynix in attendance. Crude Oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures plunged, with WTI tumbling 5.44% and Brent falling 4.81%. Last Sunday, Trump said publicly that the US and Iran would start talks on Monday, adding that "after the Hormuz agreement comes the nuclear deal." Iran earlier Monday denied the claim of talks with the US. During afternoon US stock trading, Trump again said negotiations with Iran were still ongoing. He said the US is currently in dialogue with Iran at its request, a process supported by Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and other countries, and stressed that this will be Iran's "last chance to sign a good deal." Signals are currently mixed, and the market has turned to a wait-and-see mode. Substantive risks in the Strait of Hormuz have yet to dissipate. The UK Maritime Trade Operations reported an explosion near a tanker off the coast of Oman on Sunday. This waterway, which in peacetime carries about one-fifth of global crude oil and LNG shipments, already saw an LNG carrier attacked late last week. On the futures curve, Brent is in a pronounced backwardation structure, reflecting still-tight physical market supply. (Wall Street Insights)