August 4, 2026 The world's central banks acquired a net 288.9 tonnes of gold in the second quarter of 2026 – the highest figure ever recorded for a second quarter. What makes this remarkable is the timing: the buying took place during a quarter in which the gold price fell by around 16 per cent. Anyone reading the World Gold Council's figures closely, however, will find a second and considerably more awkward story. The "Gold Demand Trends" report published by the World Gold Council (WGC) on 30 July delivers what may be the most important message of the summer for precious metals investors. While private investors exited gold ETFs during the second quarter and jewellery demand buckled under high prices, official institutions bought with rare conviction. At a net 288.9 tonnes, purchases were roughly 62 per cent above the year-earlier figure of 177.9 tonnes. The contrast with price action could hardly be sharper. The second quarter was gold's weakest since 2013; from the record high of USD 5,598 set in January, the metal has since given up considerable ground and currently trades at around USD 4,050. Central banks evidently did not read that weakness as a warning signal, but as an opportunity. Poland and China Lead the Buyers' List The single largest buyer was the National Bank of Poland with 51 tonnes. Warsaw is thereby continuing a course that brings the country close to its self-imposed target of 700 tonnes of gold reserves. In second place comes the People's Bank of China with 33 tonnes – its largest quarterly addition since late 2023, and a signal that Beijing is accelerating its diversification strategy again after a quieter phase. Behind these two sits a broad field of smaller buyers: Uzbekistan with 16 tonnes, Kazakhstan with 15 tonnes, and the central banks of Jordan and the Czech Republic with around 6 tonnes each. This breadth matters more for interpretation than the headline figure does. A record quarter carried by a single large buyer would be fragile. When demand is spread across numerous institutions from different regions and with different motivations, that points to a structural trend rather than a one-off effect. Russia Stands on the Other Side Not every central bank was buying. The Bank of Russia was the quarter's largest seller at 22 tonnes. The reason is understood to be pressure on the federal budget – here gold simply serves as a liquidity reserve to be drawn upon to plug deficits. Türkiye was also on the selling side once again, though at just 4 tonnes it was markedly more restrained than in the first quarter. These sales are central to any sound interpretation. They show that a portion of official gold movements has nothing to do with strategic conviction and everything to do with fiscal constraints. Anyone reading central bank purchases as a blanket vote of confidence in gold is making it too easy for themselves – and the same applies to anyone reading central bank sales as a blanket loss of faith. The Awkward Part: A Revision That Changes the Half-Year Picture This is where matters become interesting for attentive investors. Alongside the record second-quarter figure, Metals Focus – the World Gold Council's data provider – has sharply revised its estimate for the first quarter downwards: from an original 244 tonnes to just 57 tonnes. That is no cosmetic adjustment but a revision of more than three quarters, and it changes the overall picture considerably. Taken together, central bank demand for the first half of 2026 amounts to roughly 345 tonnes – the weakest half-year figure since 2022. Viewed soberly, then, the record quarter was primarily a catch-up movement following an exceptionally weak start to the year. For assessment purposes this means both statements are true at the same time. The second quarter was a record. The first half-year was weak. Anyone citing only one of the two figures is telling an incomplete story – and in the coverage of recent days, usually only the first has been on offer. What the Statistics Do Not Show A further point deserves attention: a substantial share of central bank purchases is never officially reported. Since 2022 the WGC has consistently identified a high proportion of unreported buying – the gap between estimated total demand and the purchases institutions actually disclose. The reported data underlying the report were, moreover, only captured up to 24 July; later disclosures may lead to further revisions. Investors should draw the right conclusion from this. Central bank demand is real and it is significant – but the published quarterly figures are estimates carrying a considerable margin of error, not exact measurements. An investment decision built on a single quarterly number rests on shifting ground. The Outlook Remains Constructive For all these caveats, the structural direction is unambiguous. The WGC's own survey of reserve managers shows that a large majority of the institutions polled expect global gold reserves to rise over the coming twelve months. Around three quarters also anticipate that their dollar holdings will decline over the next five years. This is where the real substance of the story lies. Central banks do not operate in quarters but in decades. Their gold purchases are not a timing signal for short-term price movements – anyone who bought in April on the basis of central bank demand is sitting on losses today. They are, however, an indicator of how institutional actors assess the long-term role of the US dollar and the case for hedging against geopolitical risk. For the 2026 full year, the World Gold Council expects another strong year of official demand, albeit below the 2025 level. Supply should grow only modestly: high prices and healthy producer margins support mine output, but operational constraints and long project lead times limit the pace. What the gold market did in the first half of 2026 was, above all, to change its buyer. Investors taking a long-term view in this phase will find remarkably patient company in the world's central banks. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/central-banks-buy-record-amount-of-gold-in-the-very-quarter-prices-fell

Update: 29 July 2026 June imports climb to 173.34 tons, highest since March 2024, according to customs data International gold price falls 8% in first half, while yuan-denominated price drops 10% China’s gold imports surged 89.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 as falling bullion prices, a stronger yuan and sustained demand from investors and commercial banks encouraged overseas purchases. The country imported 864.95 tons of gold between January and June, compared with 457.39 tons in the same period last year, according to figures from China’s General Administration of Customs. China imported 94.16 tons in January, up from 16.52 tons a year earlier. Imports rose to 113.18 tons in February from 76.33 tons and to 161.86 tons in March from 73.67 tons. Purchases stood at 159.84 tons in April, compared with 127.53 tons in the same month last year, before increasing to 162.55 tons in May from 99.55 tons. Imports reached 173.34 tons in June, rising from 63.79 tons a year earlier and marking the third consecutive monthly increase. The June figure was the highest since March 2024. Cheaper international prices and the appreciation of the yuan helped keep Chinese investors interested in bullion, while commercial banks increased imports to replenish inventories and meet commitments related to retail gold sales and accumulation plans. Gold accumulation plans, offered by Chinese banks, allow individuals to purchase bullion in small increments and are among the main channels through which retail investors gain exposure to the precious metal. Lower prices support investment demand The international gold price declined 8% during the first half, while the yuan-denominated price dropped 10%, according to a July 14 report by the World Gold Council, or WGC. The WGC calculations were based on the LBMA Gold Price PM, administered by ICE Benchmark Administration, and the Shanghai Benchmark Gold Price PM published by the Shanghai Gold Exchange, or SGE. Both benchmarks fell 11% in June, according to the WGC, which attributed the decline partly to hawkish messages from US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh that pushed real yields and the dollar higher. The stronger Chinese currency amplified the decline in local gold prices and made internationally sourced bullion relatively cheaper for domestic buyers, according to analysis published by Bloomberg and the WGC. The first-half decline resulted in gold’s first semiannual loss since 2021, the WGC said. Chinese gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded net demand of 29 tons during the first half, the second-strongest first-half performance on record, according to WGC calculations based on company filings. The funds’ total assets under management stood at 243 billion yuan ($36 billion) at the end of June, while their aggregate holdings reached 277 tons, the WGC said. Chinese gold ETFs suffered record monthly outflows of 15 billion yuan ($2.2 billion) in June, reducing their holdings by 17 tons, according to the WGC. The council attributed the June outflows to weaker gold prices and rising investor interest in Chinese equities, as reflected in increased stock-market account openings. Despite the monthly outflow, Chinese gold ETFs attracted about 40 billion yuan ($5.6 billion) during the first half, the WGC said, based on data from fund company filings. Institutional investor participation and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical and economic developments also supported first-half ETF demand, according to the council. Daily average trading volumes in gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, or SHFE, rose by 4 tons month-on-month to 305 tons in June, according to SHFE data compiled by the WGC. The June volume remained below the 2025 average of 457 tons per day but exceeded the five-year average of 265 tons, the WGC said. Gold futures turnover averaged 386 tons per day during the first half as price volatility and increased hedging needs supported activity, according to the council’s analysis of SHFE data. Open interest in gold futures stood at 274 tons at the end of June, down 8% during the month and 13% from the end of 2025, the WGC said, citing SHFE figures. Central bank extends record buying streak Gold withdrawals from the SGE rose 36% month-on-month to 87 tons in June, according to SGE data compiled by the WGC. The council attributed the rebound to opportunistic restocking across the supply chain, continued demand for bars and coins, and comparison with May, when withdrawals fell to their lowest level in 16 years. Despite the monthly recovery, June withdrawals remained close to the lowest levels recorded during the past decade because of continued weakness in gold jewelry demand, according to the WGC. Total SGE withdrawals reached 598 tons during the first half, down 12% year-on-year and 27% below the 10-year average, the council said. The historical comparison was based on SGE data covering 2016 to 2025. The WGC said resilient bullion investment was insufficient to offset weak jewelry consumption, which made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing inventories. The PBoC added 15 tons of gold to its reserves in June, its largest monthly purchase since October 2023, according to the WGC, citing figures from China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange. The June purchase brought the central bank’s first-half acquisitions to 40 tons and extended its gold-buying streak to 20 consecutive months, the longest on record, the council said. China’s official gold reserves reached 2,346 tons, equivalent to about 8% of the country’s official foreign exchange assets, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange cited by the WGC. The central bank accumulated 82 tons of gold during the 20-month purchasing streak, according to WGC calculations based on China’s official reserve disclosures. The WGC said heightened geopolitical tensions, trade disputes and financial-market volatility continued to support gold’s appeal to central banks as an asset without credit risk. Looking ahead, the WGC said Chinese jewelry consumption was likely to remain weak during the seasonal slowdown, although stabilizing gold prices could provide some support. Source： https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/factbox-china-s-gold-imports-jump-89-in-first-half-as-prices-retreat/4012362

SMM Steel, July 28 – According to SMM statistics, total estimated shipments of mainstream market resources this week were 241,900 mt, down 1.75% WoW from last week's shipment level. By market: Table 1: Comparison of Mainstream Market Arrivals Source: SMM Steel Shanghai Market: HRC shipments in Shanghai increased WoW this week. Specifically, as the price spread between north and east China widened earlier, local procurement of northern resources increased, leading to concentrated recent arrivals at ports; shipments from south China steel mills were stable WoW. Going forward, the current price difference between north and south China remains high, so northern resources still offer procurement cost-effectiveness, while southern resources are relatively stable. In the short term, the arrival level of mainstream resources in Shanghai will have limited room for change. Chart 1: Shanghai Market Arrival Volume Source: SMM Steel Lecong Market: Shipments to Lecong decreased this week. Specifically, resources from north China were basically stable, with one of the two mainstream resources up and the other down; WG could not sustain the high shipments of last week, resulting in reduced arrivals this week. Going forward, mainstream resources have been shipped more to south China recently. As the price difference between south and east China is not significant currently, steel mills may shift shipments more towards the east China market. In the short term, arrivals in south China will remain in a consolidation range. Chart 2: Lecong Market Arrival Volume Source: SMM Steel SMM releases HRC shipment data for mainstream markets every Tuesday. To subscribe or follow more data, please scan the QR code below.

Curated by Copilot Mid-year price outlook: WGC projects gold to hover near $4,100/oz in H2 2026, with upside if macro or geopolitical risks worsen. Correction from record: Prices fell over 25% from January’s $5,600 peak due to a strong dollar, Fed hike fears, and easing Iran tensions. Supportive demand factors: Central bank purchases and long-term investor participation may limit downside and sustain gold's role as a strategic asset. WGC forecasts gold stability with potential for sharp upside The World Gold Council’s mid-year outlook projects gold trading within 5% of $4,100/oz in H2 2026 under current macro conditions. Scenario analysis suggests a climb toward $4,500 is possible, and only a strong, clear catalyst could push prices sustainably to $5,000. Key upside drivers include worsening economic or geopolitical conditions, a dovish turn in Fed policy, and increased long-term investor participation. Newsable Asianet News + 1 From January's record high to mid-year correction Gold has dropped more than 25% from its January 2026 record of $5,602, with London spot prices down over 33% from their peak. The reversal followed a strong US dollar, rising bond yields, and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, alongside reduced safe-haven demand after US-Iran ceasefire developments. Analysts view the pullback as a corrective consolidation rather than a structural bear market, with technical support seen near $3,900 and $3,600. The Financial Express + 1 At current levels, the headwinds and tailwinds are unusually balanced. Every major gold bull run has seen a 30–40% correction before the next leg higher, and the current decline from January’s peak sits within that range. Kaynat Chainwala,AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities The Financial Express Gold rallies on softer U.S. labour data Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth in June reduced market bets on a September Fed rate hike, helping gold secure its first weekly gain in five weeks. The softer labour data also pressured the US dollar, making gold more affordable for buyers using other currencies. Central banks added 41 tonnes to reserves in May, reinforcing long-term demand support despite recent volatility. The Economic Times + 2 Why the forecast matters for investors now For investors, the WGC’s range-bound outlook suggests patience and phased accumulation strategies amid uncertainty over Fed policy and dollar strength. Historical patterns show that major gold bull runs often see 30–40% corrections before resuming upward, aligning with the current decline. In India, domestic prices remain supported by rupee weakness and higher import duties, cushioning global downside and offering relative stability. The Financial Express + 2 Source： https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/insight/wgc-sees-gold-steady-near-4-100-in-h2-upside-if-risks-rise

July 2, 2026 Following the extreme price drop from $5,500 to below $4,000 per ounce, the gold market is currently struggling to find direction. The key question now is: Will the second half of 2026 cement a sideways trend, or will new factors spark the next rally? The latest outlook from the World Gold Council (WGC) provides answers to these questions. Currently, the precious metal is stabilizing amid moderate growth, persistent inflation, and easing concerns about interest rates. The WGC sees the fair value for the coming months at around $4,100, but expects a fluctuation range of five percent. However, a massive upward breakout remains a realistic scenario: economic downturns, geopolitical escalations, or falling interest rate expectations could quickly drive the price back above $4,500, the WGC said. On the downside, the market is well-protected, as experience shows that pullbacks of more than 10 percent quickly attract countercyclical buyers. The extreme price volatility in the first half of the year, triggered by the U.S.-Iran conflict, would gradually subside, the WGC continued, and return to historical averages. The regional dynamics are particularly interesting: While sharp sell-offs have recently occurred primarily during U.S. trading hours, Asian investors have regularly driven strong recoveries. This underscores Asia’s growing market influence on global price formation. Gold: Asia’s Market Influence Grows According to WGC experts, two heavyweights will significantly dictate price trends for the rest of the year: central banks and the Indian market. Despite isolated portfolio shifts in the first quarter, WGC data for 2026 signal sustained buying interest from the official sector. Every additional purchase above the long-term average not only strengthens physical demand but also sends a strong buying signal to institutional investors. The situation in India is the opposite. To conserve foreign exchange reserves in the face of high energy prices, the Indian government has drastically raised gold import duties from 6 to 15 percent and has actively worked to curb purchases. Although this fundamental shift for the world’s second-largest gold market has, according to the WGC, already been largely priced in at current levels, a further economic slowdown in India could place additional pressure on physical demand there as well as on the market for gold-backed loans. In summary, gold remains caught between these forces. Without new macroeconomic catalysts, stabilization at current levels is the most likely scenario. However, should new signs of crisis emerge, the fundamental upside potential is immense, while the downside risk is effectively limited by the reliable network of central banks and long-term investors. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-forecast-wgc-sees-potential-for-a-breakout-above-usd4-500

Published: Jun 16, 2026 - 2:00 PM (Kitco News) - Central bank demand has been a solid pillar of support for the gold market as prices pushed to all-time highs at the start of the year. According to the latest report from the World Gold Council, official-sector demand is expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future. The WGC 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, published Tuesday, showed that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the next 12 months, while a record 45% expect their own institutions to add to their reserves. The survey comes at a historic moment for the precious metal. The WGC noted that gold recently surpassed U.S. Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset, underscoring a dramatic shift in how official institutions are managing their wealth. In an interview with Kitco News, Shaokai Fan, Global Head of Central Banks at the World Gold Council, said the survey demonstrates that official-sector confidence in gold remains exceptionally strong. "Central banks are still very positive on gold. In fact, more positive than ever," Fan said, noting that the percentage of respondents planning to increase their gold reserves rose to a record 45% this year from 43% in 2025, despite ongoing geopolitical turmoil. The survey itself suggests that central bankers increasingly view gold as a strategic monetary asset rather than a passive legacy holding. Eighty-four percent of respondents expect gold to represent a larger share of global reserves within five years, while 74% expect the U.S. dollar's share of reserves to decline over the same period. The findings reinforce a trend that has transformed reserve management over the last decade. Central banks have purchased an average of 1,000 tonnes of gold annually over the last four years, double the pace seen during the previous decade. Fan said one of the most notable developments is that interest in gold is spreading across a broader group of central banks. "We're seeing newer central banks starting to emerge," he said, pointing to countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Guatemala, and El Salvador that have recently entered the market or resumed purchases after years of inactivity. "The base on which central banks are buying is expanding." While emerging-market central banks remain the dominant buyers, Fan noted that interest is no longer confined to developing economies. The survey showed that 18% of advanced-economy central banks also expect to increase their gold holdings over the next year. Fan said central banks are increasingly discussing gold internally as reserve managers evaluate how best to diversify their portfolios amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainty. "The number of conversations that we've been having over the past one or two years has definitely picked up," he said. "More central banks are approaching us, new central banks are approaching us." The survey found that reserve diversification remains the primary reason for buying gold, followed by the need for a stronger hedge against economic risks and concerns surrounding reserve-currency economies. Thirty-one of the 34 central banks planning to increase gold reserves cited diversification as a key motivation. The survey shows that reserve managers also continue to value gold's traditional monetary characteristics. A record 90% of respondents cited gold's performance during times of crisis as a major reason for holding the metal, while 84% pointed to its role as a long-term store of value and inflation hedge, and 83% highlighted its diversification benefits. Fan said those responses were particularly striking because they came during the latest conflict in the Middle East. "The most relevant factor this year was gold's performance during times of crisis," he said. "If anything, it's even more relevant than before." He added that recent geopolitical tensions have not changed central banks' long-term assessment of the metal. "Central banks are valuing more than ever gold's performance during times of crisis, gold's role as a long-term store of value, gold as a portfolio diversifier, gold being able to be a geopolitical hedge," Fan said. The growing importance of gold is also reflected in participation levels. This year's survey attracted 76 responses, the highest on record and up from 73 last year. Fan said the growing response rate is itself evidence that gold is becoming increasingly important within the official sector. "That fact alone points out that gold is much more relevant, much more front and center as a topic among central banks," he said. Source: https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-16/record-45-central-banks-plan-increase-gold-holdings-wgc-survey-finds

Jun 05, 2026, 02:40 AM Import duty hike and volatile prices keep Indian gold demand subdued. China premiums narrow as cautious sentiment weighs on physical buying. Analysts warn smuggling risk rises as domestic discounts widen sharply. India’s gold demand remains subdued as buyers stay cautious amid volatile prices and higher import duties, with premiums narrowing in China as well. Analysts warn that regulatory tightening and inflation risks could keep consumption weak through 2026. Domestic gold prices were trading around INR 158,400 per 10 grams on Friday. India is one of the largest consumers of gold in the world. Subdued demand in India Indian gold demand has slowed, with buyers hesitant due to volatile prices and elevated import duties, according to a Reuters report . Traders said consumers are reluctant to commit to purchases, particularly after the government raised the import duty to 15% in May, the steepest increase on record. “Demand is very weak. People are waiting for prices to stabilize,” one Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters. The World Gold Council (WGC) noted in its May update that jewellery and bar-and-coin demand could decline by 50–60 tonnes (10% year-on-year) in 2026 due to the duty hike. Domestic prices are trading at a deep discount to landed prices, widening from about $14/oz before the hike to nearly $150/oz afterwards, as ample supply and profit-taking weighed on premiums. Regulatory tightening and market impact The duty hike was part of broader measures aimed at conserving foreign exchange reserves amid geopolitical uncertainty and a weakening rupee. Banks paused bullion imports for over a month earlier this year due to delays in government notifications, further disrupting supply. Large chain jewellers reported panic buying immediately after the duty announcement but expect slower sales ahead. Smaller retailers, already pressured by high prices, are struggling with reduced volumes and margins. China premiums narrow The premiums in China, the world’s top consumer, have narrowed, reflecting cautious sentiment. Buyers are hesitant as global prices remain volatile, and local demand has softened. This trend mirrors India’s slowdown, suggesting broader regional weakness in physical gold consumption. The WGC’s May commentary noted that gold fell 1% in May, finishing at $4,546/oz, as positive risk sentiment and ETF outflows weighed on prices. Analysts warned that the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates later this year as inflation pressures mount, which could prolong headwinds for gold. “Gold is vulnerable, perched on its 200-day moving average, in what looks like a declining channel,” the WGC said. Smuggling concerns and outlook Past trends suggest that higher import duties increase unofficial inflows. After the 2013 duty hike, smuggled gold rose sevenfold within a year. A similar pattern was seen after the 2022 hike to 15%, when unofficial imports surged from 17 tonnes to nearly 50 tonnes. Analysts caution that the latest increase could again encourage smuggling, widening the domestic–international price gap. India’s gold demand is expected to remain muted in the near term, with jewellery purchases subdued outside of weddings and festivals. Investment demand is more sensitive to duty changes and could decline further if inflation persists. Globally, ETF flows remain lacklustre, and the possibility of Fed rate hikes poses additional risks. For now, the market is caught between regulatory tightening, volatile prices, and cautious consumers. Unless prices stabilize and policy pressures ease, India’s gold demand is likely to stay weak through the rest of 2026, with broader implications for global bullion trade. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/06/05/india-gold-demand-weakens-as-soaring-prices-keep-buyers-on-the-sidelines/

Published: May 11, 2026 - 11:43 PM Updated: May 11, 2026 - 11:46 PM (Kitco News) - Gold prices remain stuck in neutral, with prices starting the new trading week below $4,700 an ounce; however, analysts remain optimistic that prices will recover through the second half of the year as investment demand remains healthy, with global gold-backed exchange-traded funds seeing inflows in April. Last month, 45 tonnes of gold valued at $6.575 billion flowed into global ETFs, according to the World Gold Council’s latest monthly report, published last Thursday. April’s increase was a welcome rebound from March’s outflows of 84.3 tonnes. The WGC said that global holdings increased to 4,137 tonnes, the third-highest level ever and just below the record high of 4,176 tonnes set in February. Looking at the regional breakdown of gold demand, the report said that European-listed gold ETFs saw the biggest inflows last month. European investors bought nearly 27 tonnes of gold in April, valued at US$3.7 billion. “The UK led the surge, while Switzerland and Germany also contributed meaningfully. Positive flows in the region appeared linked to heightened geopolitical and geoeconomic risks, as investors assessed the inflationary implications of a more protracted Iran conflict and the associated pressure on energy prices,” the analysts said in the report. North American investors remained a consistent presence in the gold market, with regional funds seeing inflows of 6.1 tonnes, valued at $1 billion. Although investment demand among Western investors improved last month, analysts at the WGC said the market remains vulnerable due to the ongoing war in Iran. The chaos in the Middle East has created a historic global energy supply shock, which is driving oil prices higher and igniting inflationary fears. Higher inflation could force central banks to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, raising rates and increasing the opportunity costs of holding gold . Despite near-term downside risks, analysts at the WGC said that gold’s long-term uptrend remains intact, just waiting for a new spark to ignite another bullish rally. “The near-term setup is not especially friendly. Gold is technically vulnerable, rate-cut expectations have moved out, and markets are treating the shock as temporary. Absent a fresh catalyst, this could remain a weak period for gold,” the analysts said. While Western demand is expected to remain vulnerable, Asian investors continue to pile into precious metals. The WGC said that Asian-listed gold ETFs saw inflows of more than 11 tonnes, valued at $1.8 billion. This is the eighth consecutive month the region has seen positive inflows. “The region remains important to watch, with year-to-date flows currently on pace to challenge last year’s record total. China led the region: funds in Hong Kong SAR added US$732 million, a record month, supported by new product listings; and gold ETFs in Mainland China continued to draw inflows amid elevated geopolitical tensions, falling yields, and continued official-sector gold-buying announcements,” the analysts said. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-11/global-gold-etfs-see-fresh-inflows-despite-rising-inflation-risks

Published: May 09, 2026 - 12:24 AM Updated: May 09, 2026 - 12:28 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices continue to trade in elevated territory, holding new support above $4,700 an ounce, and some analysts have noted that downside risks for the precious metal remain limited as central bank demand continues to provide solid support. Specifically, the People’s Bank of China continues to see lower gold prices as a buying opportunity, as the central bank bought 8.1 tonnes of gold in April, following its 5-tonne purchase in March. China has been a dominant player in the gold market in recent years, increasing its official gold reserves for the last 18 consecutive months. At the same time, the pace of purchases is at its highest level since December 2024. Analysts have said that it is difficult to be short gold when the market continues to see consistent demand from the official sector. “Central bank purchases have been among the key drivers of gold demand for over four years,” said Barbara Lambrecht, Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank, in a note on Friday. “Despite the significant rise in prices, purchases by central banks and other public institutions in the first quarter totaled nearly 245 tonnes, according to the WGC, which was 3% higher than the previous year and even slightly above the five-year average.” Although China has been a key player in the gold market, it is certainly not alone. Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst, EMEA at the World Gold Council (WGC), said in a social media post on Thursday that updated reserve data showed the Czech National Bank bought 2 tonnes of gold last month. “Its YTD net purchases now total 8 tonnes, helping to lift total gold holdings to over 79 tonnes,” he said. Gopaul also said that according to preliminary estimates, Poland’s central bank bought another 13 tonnes of gold in April; however, he added that this cannot be confirmed until official reserve numbers are updated. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-08/china-and-other-central-banks-continue-buy-dip-gold

SMM, March 25: Falling oil prices eased inflation and rate hike concerns, as the US pushed to end the conflict with Iran, leading to some moderation in Middle East geopolitical tension expectations. Meanwhile, a senior executive at the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday that gold, as a hedge against de-dollarization and geopolitical risks, is expected to prompt central banks that have long been absent from the market to purchase the precious metal this year. At the same time, a weaker US dollar, coupled with fundamental supports such as valuation repair and tight silver supply, fueled a joint rally in precious metals futures and related equities. As of around 14:23 on March 25, COMEX gold rose 3.13% to $4,539.6/oz; the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 3.71% to 1,015.54 yuan/g; COMEX silver rose 5.27% to $73.235/oz; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 7.19% to 18,136 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 8.84% to 18,129 yuan/kg. In addition, the most-traded platinum contract rose 5.8% to 506.7 yuan/g, and the most-traded palladium contract rose 5.13% to 368.75 yuan/g. Precious metals stocks also strengthened following the futures rally. As of the close on March 25, the precious metals sector rose 3.37%. Among individual stocks: Chifeng Gold rose 6.12%, with Xingye Silver&Tin, Shengda Resources, Xiaocheng Technology, Hunan Silver, and Zhongjin Gold among the top gainers. Spot Market Platinum On March 25, spot platinum was quoted at 499~503 yuan/g, with an average price of 501 yuan/g, up 5.92% from the previous trading day. Spot platinum was quoted at discounts of 6-8 yuan/g against the PT2606 contract, or at discounts of 2-4 yuan/g against the Sell 1 price on the SGE. Spot discounts widened slightly from the previous trading day. In terms of spot transactions, according to SMM, suppliers reported tight supply, with trading firms engaging in both spot and futures market actively inquiring, but mainstream quotation discounts did not widen significantly. The gap between intended and quoted prices was large, and actual transactions were limited. Some downstream enterprises made just-in-time procurement based on orders or adopted a wait-and-see stance. Overall spot market trading turned slightly lighter compared to yesterday. Silver On March 25, the SMM 1# silver ex-factory reference average price in the morning was 18,360 yuan/kg, up 1,800 yuan/kg from the previous trading day, an increase of 10.87%. It is understood that the spot-futures price spread between TD and the most-traded SHFE silver contract narrowed on the 25th. Some suppliers held back from selling and adopted a wait-and-see approach, while downstream broadly bargained and bought on dips. In the morning in Shanghai, mainstream quotations from holders of national standard silver ingots were at premiums of 100-150 yuan/kg against TD or premiums of 50-80 yuan/kg against the SHFE silver 2604 contract. Only a small volume was traded in early trading. As the spot-futures spread narrowed and silver prices surged, downstream willingness to purchase declined noticeably. Although suppliers held back from selling due to costs and other reasons, some sellers in the market cut prices to premiums of 0-20 yuan/kg against the 2604 contract to offload. Spot market quotations varied widely, with intense gaming between buyers and sellers. Downstream enterprises made small-scale dip-buying, and market trading turned thinner. Voices from Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, the views of some institutions are as follows: On Monday local time, the UBS Global Wealth Management team released a report, further strengthening its bullish stance on gold. UBS analyst Wayne Gordon and his team stated that despite recent declines in gold prices, they believe investors should still hold gold as a defensive hedge. “We do not view this as a ‘Bernanke moment’ for gold—a major turning point—because we see significant differences between the current situation and the critical policy shifts of central banks decades ago, which suggests that fundamentals have not changed significantly, and we expect strong support for gold prices based on future macro developments,” he said. The analyst added that his team's view of gold as an effective portfolio hedge has not changed, and predicted that gold prices will soon start to rise again. UBS attributed gold's recent decline to several factors, such as weakening investor confidence in the US Fed's interest rate cuts and waning speculative momentum in the market. However, in Gordon's view, if history serves as a guide, negative views on gold's outlook may be premature. Chaos Ternary Futures stated: The market's high-volatility trend continues alongside the changing conflict, and the five-day negotiation period may delay risks. However, before a real negotiation outcome emerges, market optimism is not enough to fully return. Moreover, the released negotiation agreements are all reiterations of previous ones and have yet to meet the conditions for an agreement with Iran; currently, Iran has not acknowledged them, so the risks remain unresolved. Precious metals trading continues to follow the conflict situation, and amid short-term high volatility, the long-term upward trend is maintained. Minmetals Futures believes: The current geopolitical conflict has become the market's core focus, and gold price movements are significantly disturbed by news flow. As the US softens its stance, oil prices pull back slightly, easing concerns about further Fed rate hikes to some extent. If the geopolitical conflict eases subsequently, the pressure on the global economy from high energy prices and supply chain disruptions will gradually diminish, and the probability of central banks hiking interest rates will decline, allowing gold to regain upward momentum. However, at the same time, the inflation expectations brought by high oil prices have not yet eased, and the US Fed is unlikely to see data support for an inflation pullback in the near term. Combined with cautious statements from major central banks earlier, precious metals still face valuation pressure in the short term. JP Morgan noted in a report: "Although the current gold price is still down about 17% from pre-conflict levels due to a stronger US dollar and widespread risk-off moves in the market, historically, such sharp declines often represent tactical buying opportunities. Moreover, the longer the conflict lasts, the more the bullish case for gold is reinforced. " Renowned Wall Street economist, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and Chief Global Strategist Peter Schiff believes that the current sell-off in gold is replaying the script of the 2008 global financial crisis and boldly predicts that gold will subsequently rebound to $11,400. Schiff’s bullish view on gold prices is based on historical comparisons with the global financial crisis. He wrote on social media platform X: “At the beginning of the 2008 global financial crisis, gold prices plunged 32%, roughly 40% of the preceding bull market’s gains. After bottoming out, gold prices surged 178% over the next three years.” Ed Yardeni, a veteran of the precious metals market and president of Yardeni Research, recently stated that he still sticks to his forecast of gold reaching $10,000 by the end of this decade. However, he lowered his year-end target price from $6,000 to $5,000, a level still about 14% above current prices. CITIC Securities pointed out that after previous Middle East conflicts, the medium-term trend of gold prices still depended on US dollar credit and liquidity factors. Looking ahead to the current conflict, the continuation of the two trends of looser liquidity and weakening US dollar credit is expected to further push up gold prices. Historically, valuation or stock price percentile advantages have strengthened the upside room for the gold sector, while the PE valuation levels of top-tier players have pulled back to a historical low of 15–20x. Meanwhile, considering that share price highs have been highly synchronized with gold price highs in recent years, we are bullish that new highs in gold prices will drive new highs in stock prices. Justin Lin, Investment Strategist at Global X ETFs, said that his base-case expectation for gold remains $6,000 per ounce by year-end and called the current pullback “a very attractive entry point.” He noted: “This round of sell-off seems to be driven by multiple short-term factors, including increased sensitivity to rising interest rates, asset reallocation amid stock market weakness, and a degree of complacency in the market regarding the Iran conflict.” Lin particularly stressed that his bullish logic does not rely on war-related risk premiums. He said: “Our judgment is more based on the broader macro backdrop—persistent geopolitical uncertainty, continued gold purchases by central banks, and sustained inflows into Asian gold ETFs.” This structural demand, especially increased gold allocations by emerging-market central banks to diversify foreign exchange reserves, is expected to provide a bottom support for gold prices. Lin added that after this pullback, central banks are likely to ramp up gold purchases, helping to stabilize the market. (Cailian Press) Rajat Bhattacharya, Senior Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, said: “We remain optimistic about gold’s long-term outlook, supported by strong demand from emerging-market central banks and investors’ need for asset diversification amid geopolitical risks.”Standard Chartered expects that after the current deleveraging phase ends, gold prices will rebound to around $5,375 per ounce in the next three months, and believes there is technical support at the $4,100 level. The World Gold Council reported that in January 2026, global central banks’ cumulative disclosed net gold purchases reached 5 mt. Compared with the average monthly purchases of 27 mt in 2025, the purchasing momentum at the start of 2026 slowed somewhat. Affected by gold price fluctuations and holiday factors, some central banks may have paused their gold buying. However, with almost no signs of easing geopolitical tensions, it is likely to drive central banks to continue adding to their gold holdings in 2026 and beyond. On March 16, Fitch Ratings raised its metal and mining price expectations, reflecting changes in supply-demand drivers for specific commodities. Among them: Gold: Gold prices were raised for the entire period, reflecting significant market price rises, with central banks making large purchases of gold to diversify their reserves and institutional and retail investors also increasing their allocations to gold. These holdings will fluctuate, but the macro drivers—geopolitical tensions, declining interest rates, and concerns about the long-term inflationary consequences of global trade fragmentation—are unlikely to ease in the short term. Platinum group metals: As substitutes for gold and silver, platinum group metals have garnered increasing attention from investors. Current prices are not supported by supply-demand dynamics. We assume that in the long term, prices will revert to levels supported by fundamentals. We have raised our mid-cycle expectations for platinum because its supply-demand fundamentals are stronger, it can substitute for gold in jewelry, and it benefits from broader end-use market exposure. Palladium and rhodium are highly concentrated in their applications in catalytic converters. Limited Russian mine production supports palladium prices. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) stated on March 4 that the global platinum market is expected to experience a supply deficit for the fourth consecutive year, with a deficit of 240,000 oz expected in 2026. The association had expected the market to be broadly balanced three months ago. Spot platinum prices, after surging 127% in 2025, have risen 2% so far this year, hitting a record high of $2,918.80 per ounce on January 26. Recommended Reading: ► ► ►