SMM, July 28: In H1 2026, the global petroleum coke market had originally hoped for an easing of the previous year's tight supply and a gradual recovery in production from major producing regions. However, the early-year "signs of production increase" were successively interrupted by peak maintenance season, the escalation of Middle East tensions, and multiple refinery accidents. The global supply side displayed a typical pattern of "first increase then decline, overall tightness," while the structural divergence between high- and low-sulphur coke further intensified. I. Global Overview: From "Easing Expectations" to "Tightening Reality" In 2025, the global petroleum coke market tightened significantly due to concentrated refinery closures and a rising share of light crude processing — US coke production once fell to a 20-year low. Entering 2026, benefiting from improved economics for heavy sour crude, coke output in the US Gulf Coast surged to a 13-month high in January, and the market widely expected high-sulphur coke supply to exert downward pressure on prices in Q2. But this expectation was quickly overturned. The escalation of Middle East tensions in late February pushed up crude oil and shipping costs, and combined with successive accidents at key refineries in the US and Mexico from March to April, global supply tightened again, providing solid support to prices. The repeated cycle of "production increase — then production cuts" in global petroleum coke during H1 has become the dominant theme driving price fluctuations. II. US: Hit New High Early in the Year, Production Rebounded Despite March-April Disruptions The US is a major source of global high-sulphur coke. In January 2026, benefiting from favorable economics for processing heavy sour crude, US coke production rebounded to a 13-month high, momentarily making the market optimistic about supply easing in Q2. However, March-April saw a cluster of risk events: Valero's Port Arthur refinery (380,000 b/d) halted production due to a fire on March 23, with coking units partially restarting in early April but the large crude unit not back online until month-end, forcing April shipments to be delayed to May. Meanwhile, multiple refineries in Texas also experienced frequent malfunctions — ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery (612,000 b/d) suffered a unit malfunction on April 22, and Marathon's Galveston Bay refinery (631,000 b/d) experienced a power outage on April 14. However, the disruption did not reverse the overall production increase. According to US EIA data, marketable petroleum coke production along the US Gulf Coast reached 2 million mt in April, up 14% YoY (up from 1.8 million mt a year earlier) and up 3% MoM, pushing nationwide production up 8% YoY. The growth was mainly driven by a surge in Venezuelan crude imports (more than doubled YoY and up 15% MoM in April), coupled with US Gulf Coast refining margins hitting a more than three-year high in late March and refinery operating rates averaging 95%; some refiners maximized operations to capture high product margins. Among them, Louisiana Gulf Coast production soared 29% YoY in April, hitting a more than six-year high. In other words, US supply in H1 was characterized by a "first-down-then-up" pattern—constrained by incidents in Q1, but clearly recovering by April. III. Mexico and Venezuela: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back on the Production Increase Path Venezuela: After the US eased sanctions restrictions, exports began to rebound from February but remained below year-earlier levels, contributing limited global growth. Mexico: Following the incident at the Pemex Dos Bocas / Olmeca refinery (340,000 b/d) on April 9, which involved a coke pit fire and damage to a tower at the coker unit, market participants expect it to resume operations at 50% load. This followed a separate fatal fire at the refinery in mid-March that resulted in five deaths. The successive incidents have cast a shadow over Mexico's full-year production increase plan. However, entering H2, coke output at Dos Bocas has continued to rebound, with daily production recovering to 4,000–5,000 mt. Stable shipments to India and Asia have started since July, slightly relieving pressure on US Gulf Coast cargoes, but the growth remains limited and insufficient to alter the tight balance landscape. Overall, the "recovery-driven production increases" in both countries were offset by incidents and infrastructure bottlenecks, resulting in H1 net global supply growth that was clearly below expectations. IV. Middle East: Core Refineries Hit, Saudi High- and Low-Sulphur Petroleum Coke Exports Hindered After the Middle East situation escalated on February 28, constrained regional crude exports pushed up oil prices and narrowed the heavy-light crude spread, directly weakening the economics of coker operations. The impact on petroleum coke supply has been particularly direct: Yasref refinery (Aramco/Sinopec, 400,000 b/d, Yanbu) has lowered coke production; Satorp refinery (Aramco/TotalEnergies, 460,000 b/d, Jubail) has faced shipment disruptions, with one processing unit damaged in a night attack on April 7–8, further tightening Saudi external supply. Saudi Arabia is the primary supplier of high-sulphur petroleum coke globally, especially to India and China. Disruptions to its production and shipments have directly intensified the tightness of spot high-sulphur petroleum coke in the Asian market. Notably, the supply disruption did not ease with the end of Q2—after the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement broke down on July 8, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was again obstructed, and all cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Satorp and Yanbu refineries were delayed, extending the supply interruption into early H2. 5. Russia: Exports to China Surge Against the Trend, Refinery Attacks Add Further Uncertainty Russia is one of the core sources of China’s petroleum coke imports. In H1, amid multiple disruptions, it exhibited a trajectory of “volume increase, attacks, and renewed tightening”: Import share rose against the trend: According to General Administration of Customs data, China’s total petroleum coke imports in H1 2026 reached 8.1103 million mt (YoY -2.24%), of which Russian petroleum coke imports amounted to 1.4361 million mt, a significant YoY increase of 221,000 mt, or 18.18%, lifting its import share to 18% and making it one of the few sources to grow against the trend in H1. Predominantly high-sulphur resources with diversified transport: Currently, Russian petroleum coke specifications remain largely high-sulphur resources. In addition to traditional sea transport, some traders choose to deliver via rail into China, mainly for use in prebaked anode and anode auxiliary material applications. Refinery attacks hit supply: Recently, the Russia-Ukraine situation has continued to deteriorate, damaging delayed coking units (CDU and secondary processing units) at core refineries such as Omsk. Russia’s overall refining capacity was paralyzed by over 40% at one point, with the affected products mainly being medium-sulphur petroleum coke with 1.8% sulphur and general-grade petroleum coke around 4% sulphur. According to market surveys, the Omsk refinery is expected to gradually resume production by end-July, while the Tatarstan refinery will resume in early September, leading to near-term supply tightening expectations. Overall, Russian petroleum coke supported China’s high-sulphur petroleum coke supply in H1 by “filling the gap with volume,” but the pace of refinery production resumptions and geopolitical risks in H2 will be key variables affecting the stability of exports to China. 6. China: Independent Refinery Output High Initially, Then Low; June Operating Rate Plummets to 42.69%As the world's largest petroleum coke consumer, China's domestic coke production also came under pressure in H1. According to SMM's monthly data on independent refineries: Total H1 volume: From January to June 2026, cumulative petroleum coke production at independent refineries was approximately 4.7831 million mt, down 148,100 mt from 4.9312 million mt in the same period of 2025, a 3.0% YoY decline. Monthly trend shaped higher at the start and lower later: January output of 867,300 mt (operating rate 66.24%) was the H1 high; it then declined month by month, with June output falling to 656,200 mt and the operating rate at only 42.69%. Compared to June 2025's 761,500 mt and 60.67%, the declines were 13.80% and 17.98 percentage points, respectively. Significant regional divergence: Shandong independent refineries produced about 3.5543 million mt in H1, up 8.2% YoY; non-Shandong independent refineries produced about 1.2291 million mt, a sharp 25.3% YoY decline. Shandong's share of total independent refinery production rose to around 74.3%. Structural highlights: Low-sulphur coke was relatively strong, supported by rigid demand from anode materials and prebaked anodes, while high-sulphur coke saw limited price gains due to downstream resistance to high prices but still moved its overall center higher. The structural tightness in high-quality low-sulphur resources during H1 is likely to remain the main theme throughout the whole year. 7. China Port Spot: Low-sulphur Coke Stays High and Firm, High-sulphur Coke Diverges Tightening supply has been reflected in domestic port spot prices. According to SMM's China port petroleum coke spot price monitoring, low-sulphur and high-sulphur coke prices showed clear divergence in H1: Low-sulphur coke stayed high with marginal supplement from imports: Represented by Brazilian and Argentine low-sulphur coke, imports of high-quality resources saw significant YoY growth in port arrivals during H1, and port spot prices long operated in the range of 4,100–4,500 yuan/mt. Indonesian low-sulphur coke port spot prices drifted higher from around 4,450 yuan/mt in January, touched a high of 4,900 yuan/mt at the end of April, and then pulled back to 4,600 yuan/mt by late July. Overall, low-sulphur coke demand is rigid (anode materials, high-end prebaked anodes) while incremental supply is insufficient, with imports providing only marginal supplementation, and the supply-demand mismatch supports the price center. Divergence within high-sulphur petroleum coke: US high-sulphur petcoke prices remain relatively firm, staying above 3,000 yuan/mt, while prices for high-sulphur petcoke from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other sources are notably lower, with some grades trading only in the 1,400–2,000 yuan/mt range. The price spread reflects differences in cargo quality, shipping costs, and port arrival stability: cargoes from the US Gulf Coast are supported by rebounding EIA production and aggressive Indian buying, whereas Saudi high-sulphur petcoke is under pressure due to shipment disruptions from the Satorp and Yanbu refineries, leading to unstable port arrivals and depressed prices. Consolidating at recent highs: Since July, port spot prices have shown a pattern of mixed performance and consolidation at highs. Low-sulphur petcoke has softened slightly in the off-season demand period, but declines have been limited; high-sulphur petcoke prices have diverged due to different shipment paces from the US Gulf and the Middle East. Overall, the cost side (import average price up 37.88% YoY) provides solid support for domestic prices, leaving relatively small downside room. This price structure indicates that the global supply tightness in H1 was not simply an "overall shortage," but rather the result of structural tightness in low-sulphur resources combined with regional mismatches in high-sulphur resources. VIII. H2 Outlook Looking ahead to H2, whether global supply can truly shift from decline to growth depends on three key variables: the pace of de-escalation in the Middle East, the pace of resumption at accident-hit refineries in the US and Mexico, and the strength of export recovery after easing of sanctions on Venezuela. Against the backdrop of the maintenance peak receding and some units planning to resume production, the supply-demand gap is expected to narrow further and gradually return to balance. However, the structural tightness of high-quality low-sulphur resources may remain the main theme throughout the year.

SMM, July 28: In metals markets: Base metals generally rose in overnight trading both domestically and overseas, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel both declining—LME nickel fell 0.23%, SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. LME copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, while LME zinc and LME tin both rose over 0.7%—LME zinc gained 0.77% and LME tin gained 0.72%. Other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.7%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals generally fell overnight, with stainless steel down 0.82%, HRC, rebar, and iron ore all down over 0.3%—HRC fell 0.33%, rebar fell 0.36%, and iron ore fell 0.34%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.04%, while coke fell 0.65%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, while COMEX silver fell 0.36%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.18% and SHFE silver fell 0.72%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM July 28: Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in Jan–Jun; Electronics-Related Sectors Saw Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, against the backdrop of stable industrial production growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, accelerating 1.5 percentage points from Q1. The faster revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By the three major categories, profits in mining and manufacturing rose 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 ppt and 1.0 ppt from Q1; profits in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size surged 71.7% YoY, boosting the overall industrial profit growth by 8.8 ppt. By sector, driven by factors such as favorable demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, profits in the non-ferrous sector jumped 99.4%, boosting overall industrial profit growth by 4.7 ppt. Propelled by rising prices of petroleum-related products, the petroleum processing sector turned from a loss to a profit YoY, while profits in the chemical sector grew 67.8%. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.08% overnight to 101.53. Citadel Securities expects the US Fed to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility in the fight against inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-bp hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh's repeated commitment to restoring price stability while signaling that policymakers no longer rely on signaling every policy move in advance. "Markets may again be underestimating the degree of the Fed's hawkish shift." This week's hike would "decisively end the era of forward guidance" while underscoring the Fed's independence. US President Trump on Monday commented on the Fed, saying that Chairman Warsh is very good but he has to deal with the committee's issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. On interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10) Citi traders are betting that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, even though the swaps market assigns over a one-third probability to a 25-bp hike. Citi’s global head of short-term rates trading, Akshay Singal, said the bank is taking on July FOMC meeting contracts based on “high conviction”—positions that will pay off if the central bank stays on hold. Currently, the swaps market sees a nearly 40% probability of a 25-bp hike this week. This comes after escalating Middle East tensions triggered wild swings in oil prices and US Treasury yields, fueling inflation worries. “We remain strongly forecasting that the Fed will hold rates steady,” Singal told Bloomberg News. He added that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “has made it very clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data tell us there’s no need for the Fed to hike now.” Singal said Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance has also added to market uncertainty. “The market is currently lacking clear guidance,” Singal said. “We expect a healthy and robust debate, but ultimately rates will be left unchanged.” (Wall Street CN) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 36.3%. By September, the probability of rates staying on hold is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 25.8%. (Jin10) Other Currencies: Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing said in a report that while markets have priced in slightly more than 50 bp of rate hikes from the Fed, BOE, and ECB by mid-2027, policy paths could diverge next year. If the Iran war ends, energy prices will retreat and domestic economic fundamentals will become the main driver of monetary policy. However, underlying inflation pressures in the UK and eurozone are weaker. The situation in the US is different, and fiscal policy also remains relatively loose. Shearing said it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the tightening expectations priced in for the ECB and BOE, though the Fed may resume tightening before long. (Jin10) According to people familiar with the matter, the Swiss National Bank plans to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before potentially starting to hike. This view is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks. They noted that the recent softening of the Swiss franc against the euro and the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the eurozone are also factors shaping this expectation. The people said that if the economic outlook faces fresh shocks, implementing negative rates remains an option, but they stressed that this is not the current baseline scenario. They added that zero rates have not seriously hurt the profitability of the Swiss banking sector. The SNB kept rates unchanged at its June meeting and expects to keep them on hold until the end of next year. (Jin10) Macro Front: Today, data releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the May FHFA House Price Index MoM, the May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (NSA), the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: Both oil benchmarks plunged overnight, with WTI falling 8.29% and Brent falling 6.9%. The Middle East geopolitical risks that had been driving the relentless surge in oil prices showed clear signs of cooling. US President Trump confirmed that he would suspend a new round of strikes against Iran, leaving a window for diplomatic negotiations, and the market rapidly unwound the “war premium” previously priced in. Market analysis suggests that the sharp sell-off was not driven by a sudden deterioration in demand but rather a concentrated release of the risk premium that had accumulated rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz transit risks and escalating US-Iran military tensions. However, several institutions also warned that the current situation remains far from genuine de-escalation, and oil prices could still rebound sharply if military action escalates again. (Wall Street CN) Although market sentiment has improved markedly, analysts generally believe it is still too early to say that Middle East risks have passed. The Wall Street Journal noted that the US suspension of military action has increased the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis and boosted market expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will eventually normalize. However, key variables including Red Sea shipping security, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Iran nuclear issue, and the future passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, meaning international oil prices will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Reuters also pointed out that the market’s focus this week will remain on whether US-Iran contacts can achieve substantive progress. If negotiations fail and military action re-escalates, the risk premium just released from the energy market could quickly return to oil prices. (Wall Street CN) US President Trump said on Monday that the US has collected more than $13 billion from Venezuelan crude oil sales since US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a cross-border operation. “Venezuela has brought us $13 billion? I think it’s more than that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan to visit a General Motors plant. “We’ve more than made back the cost of that war many times over.” Trump claimed the money was used to keep Venezuela running. “We’re making a lot of money—billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela.” (Financial Times)

SMM July 22 news: In the metals market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.69%, SHFE aluminum added 0.56%, SHFE lead fell 0.95%, SHFE zinc rose 0.55%, SHFE tin gained 1.02%. SHFE nickel climbed 0.77%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.22%, and the most-traded casting aluminum futures rose 0.5%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Stainless steel added 0.2%, iron ore fell 0.13%, and rebar and hot-rolled coil both rose within 0.2%. As for coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.84%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.52%. In the overnight overseas metals market, LME base metals nearly all rose. LME copper climbed 1.91%, LME aluminum added 0.81%, LME lead fell 0.48%, LME zinc rose 0.94%, LME tin jumped 1.53%, and LME nickel gained 1.12%. In overnight precious metals, : COMEX gold rose 1.65%, COMEX silver surged 3.5%. The most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.36%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract climbed 3.01%. As of 7:07 on July 22, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic market: [State Administration for Market Regulation: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots] The State Administration for Market Regulation held a press conference on July 21 to introduce the achievements of China’s testing and inspection service industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will implement a three-year action to promote industrial optimization and upgrading and quality improvement of national quality inspection centers through innovative pilot programs, proactively lay out high-level testing platforms for strategic emerging industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, biomedicine, and humanoid robots, and drive service model innovation through digital transformation. It will strengthen deep collaboration with industry chain leaders and research institutes, jointly overcome a number of key core technologies, promote the upgrading of testing and inspection from single services to “industry chain synergy,” and transform the role from a “post-event quality gatekeeper” to an “innovation enabler throughout the whole process.” It will coordinate the building of testing capabilities for green and low-carbon development, food safety, and high-risk industrial products, and reinforce the quality defense line for industrial development and public safety. (Jin10 Data App) [Southwest China Adds Large-Scale Hydrogen Source Base] News from CIMC Group: the integrated steel and coke clean energy project in Liupanshui, Guizhou Province, has been officially commissioned and achieved stable operation, becoming a key hydrogen supply node on the “Chongqing-Guizhou-Guangxi” hydrogen corridor. The project commissioned this time is currently the leading industrial tail-gas-to-hydrogen and resource-utilization demonstration project in south-west China. Leveraging surplus local coke oven coal gas resources from the steel industry, the project uses independently developed full-chain process technology to complete component separation, converting industrial tail gas that was originally used for combustion power generation into high-value clean energy. It can produce 24 million m³ per year of 99.999% fuel cell, battery-grade high-purity hydrogen and approximately 140,000 mt of liquefied natural gas, achieving efficient on-site resource conversion. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.24% to 101.21. Rising oil prices put pressure on the rates market, and the market’s assessment of the likelihood of US Fed rate hikes in July and September both increased today. Christopher Hodge, Natixis’ Chief US Economist, believed that energy price fluctuations should drive US Fed decision-making. (Wallstreetcn) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged in July was 74.9%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 25.1%. The probability that the US Fed would keep rates unchanged by September was 28.9%, the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 25 basis points was 55.7%, and the probability of cumulative rate hikes of 50 basis points was 15.4%. (Jinshi Data APP) In addition, according to a Reuters poll: 78 of 104 economists (78 of 102 in last month’s poll) expected the US Fed to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% throughout 2026. On the macro front: Today, data including the UK June CPI m/m and the UK June Retail Price Index m/m were due to be released. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.5% and Brent up 2.71%. The US-Iran military conflict entered its 10th day, and the Houthi armed group announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, with traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea plunging 34% within two weeks. (Wallstreetcn) Data: US crude oil inventory increased last week. For the week ended July 17, API crude oil inventory was 2.603 million barrels (expectations: -500,000; previous: -564,000). For the week ended July 17, API gasoline inventory was -1.379 million barrels (expectations: -1.81 million; previous: -1.664 million). In addition, Iraq’s oil minister said that during the Iraqi prime minister’s visit to the US, the total value of agreements expected to be signed between Iraq’s Ministry of Oil and US enterprises would reach $200 billion. In a statement, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that the recent escalation of hostile actions against energy infrastructure in and around the Strait of Hormuz had heightened concerns over global energy supply security and increased uncertainty about the market outlook. The threats facing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key passage bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, have further intensified these concerns. However, he noted that the crude oil market is currently supported by several buffering factors. Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are maintaining supply through alternative shipping routes, and some crude continues to be exported via the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA estimates that crude exports from the Gulf region, while below the end-June high, remain significantly above the levels from March to mid-June. Additionally, increased exports from producers including the US, Brazil, Venezuela, and Kazakhstan have partially offset supply losses from the Gulf. China’s nearly 50% reduction in crude oil imports has also helped stabilize the market. The IEA stated that since the announcement of the release of 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves on March 11, member countries have released about 290 million barrels into the market, and the ongoing release of emergency inventories is providing support to the market. (Jinshi Data App) Due to the contract rollover, NYMEX crude oil August futures will see floor trading conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, and electronic trading end at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiration and rollover notices to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiration, so please take extra care. Recommended Reading:

Data released by the Customs Statistics online query platform showed that China's imports of tin ore and concentrates in June 2026 were 17,430.75 mt, up 3.56% MoM and up 46.62% YoY. China imported 6,392.82 mt of tin ore and concentrates from Myanmar in June, down 3.63% MoM but up 176.19% YoY. China imported 3,024.24 mt of tin ore and concentrates from the DRC in June, down 21.60% MoM and down 31.65% YoY. The following is a breakdown of import data compiled from the website of China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC): Origin June 2026 (mt) MoM YoY Myanmar 6392.82 -3.63% 176.19% DRC 3024.24 -21.60% -31.65% Nigeria 1650.47 -4.22% 18.94% Bolivia 1399.60 35.39% 14.71% Australia 1350.69 -20.72% 20.11% Malaysia 1277.21 541.58% 455.32% Russia 805.18 247.88% - Rwanda 351.16 42.70% 140.29% Laos 280.35 117.45% 28.06% Brazil 157.69 -15.55% - Kyrgyzstan 149.16 - 14.12% Thailand 141.45 -12.58% - Venezuela 123.31 -42.14% -18.72% Vietnam 114.92 -17.33% -40.00% Colombia 74.06 -33.45% -26.42% Indonesia 68.91 -66.16% -53.55% Congo Republic 30.97 - 708.30% Namibia 26.14 0.27% - Zambia 12.44 -35.34% - Total 17430.75 3.56% 46.62% Data source: GAC (Wen Hua Comprehensive)

SMM July 4 news: Metal market: Last Friday night, domestic base metals nearly all rose. SHFE copper gained 0.14%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.6%, SHFE lead added 0.38%, SHFE zinc increased 0.87%, and SHFE tin jumped 3.8%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.07%, and the most-traded cast aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Last Friday night, ferrous metals mostly closed higher. Stainless steel dropped 1.85%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar gained 0.39%, and hot-rolled coil added 0.4%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.21%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.6%. Last Friday night, in the overseas market, LME base metals rose across the board. LME copper gained 0.54%, LME aluminum added 0.23%, LME lead rose 1.04%, LME zinc climbed 2.17%, LME tin surged 4.99%, and LME nickel rose 0.4%. Last Friday night, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 1.49%, posting a weekly gain of 2.22%; COMEX silver gained 2.87%, closing the week higher with a 5.26% increase. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.81%, ending the week up 3.5%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.61%, posting a weekly rise of 8.82%. JPMorgan said that in the short term, gold prices may be capped by weakening demand and are likely to remain moving sideways overall. The main reasons are weaker purchasing power in key demand areas and renewed sensitivity of gold to changes in real interest rates, which may limit further price gains. However, the bank maintains a medium- to long-term bullish outlook. It expects gold to gradually rebound in H2 2026, with an average price of around $4,300 per ounce in Q3, rising to about $4,500 in Q4. Looking ahead to 2027, JPMorgan believes the rally may continue, driven mainly by continued central bank buying, stronger physical demand, and persistent long-term structural allocation needs. These factors will support gold's long-term appeal as a safe-haven and reserve asset. As of 7:41 a.m. on July 4, last Friday night's closing quotations: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Take more forceful measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating high-level self-reliance in science and technology, building a strong domestic market, and deepening reforms and expanding opening up] On July 1, Premier Li Qiang, also secretary of the CPC Leadership Group of the State Council, presided over a meeting of the group to study and implement the spirit of General Secretary Xi Jinping's important speech at the celebration of the 105th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China and Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building. The meeting emphasized the need to strive for new achievements in high-quality development, strengthen initiative and a sense of urgency in work, and take more robust measures and actions in building a modern industrial system, accelerating self-reliance in high-level science and technology, developing a strong domestic market, and deepening reform and expanding opening up. It called for taking solid action, shouldering responsibilities, and striving to carry forward the baton of history, so as to make greater contributions to building a strong country and achieving national rejuvenation. (Xinhua News Agency) [The State Council: Increasing Efforts in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation in Key Industries such as Steel and Non-Ferrous Metals to Achieve Energy Savings of More Than 150 Million mt of Standard Coal] Recently, the State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Beautiful China,” clarifying the overall requirements, targets and indicators, key tasks, and major projects for comprehensively advancing the building of a Beautiful China during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. The Plan proposes that by 2030, the quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and new significant progress will be made in building a Beautiful China. Green production and lifestyles will be essentially in place, the carbon peak target will be met as scheduled, total emissions of major pollutants will continue to decline, comprehensive solid waste management capacity and level will be significantly enhanced, urban and rural living environments will be notably improved, the diversity, stability, and sustainability of ecosystems will be continuously strengthened, nuclear and radiation safety levels will keep rising, national ecological security will be effectively guaranteed, an ecological and environmental governance system adapted to the requirements of building a Beautiful China will be steadily refined, a number of demonstration models for building a Beautiful China will be established, and the people’s sense of gain, happiness, and security from the ecological environment will be continuously enhanced. It also makes an outlook on the 2035 targets and proposes accelerating the formation of the overall layout for building a Beautiful China. (Xinhua News Agency) The Plan mentions increasing efforts in energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in key industries such as thermal power, steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, and building materials, promoting and popularizing energy-saving and low-carbon technologies, and achieving energy savings of more than 150 million mt of standard coal. With the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas as the focus, industrial coal-fired boilers with a capacity of 65 steam tonnes per hour or below will be gradually phased out. The substitution of clean energy for coal-fired boilers and industrial kilns in industries such as food, textiles, and papermaking will be advanced. [Ministry of Finance and Two Other Departments: Adjusting Vehicle and Vessel Tax Preferential Policies for Energy-Saving Vehicles and NEVs] On July 2, the Ministry of Finance, the State Taxation Administration, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued an announcement on adjusting vehicle and vessel tax preferential policies for energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles. It states that from January 1, 2027, the policy of halving vehicle and vessel tax for energy-saving vehicles will be abolished, and the exemption from vehicle and vessel tax for pure electric commercial vehicles, plug-in hybrid (including extended-range) vehicles, and fuel cell commercial vehicles will be abolished. Vehicles of the above types newly acquired by taxpayers or acquired before the implementation of this announcement shall be subject to vehicle and vessel tax in accordance with the Vehicle and Vessel Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, its implementation regulations, and other relevant provisions. [PBOC: To conduct 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation on July 6, with 3-month tenor] To keep banking system liquidity ample, on July 6, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation via a fixed-quantity, interest rate tender with multiple-price winning bids, with a tenor of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (adjusted for holidays if it falls on a holiday). (Jinshi Data APP) On the dollar front: Overnight last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.91. On the weekly chart: The dollar index fell on a weekly basis, down 0.44% for the week, its biggest weekly decline since mid-April. The decline occurred as US June employment data cooled noticeably, leading the market to lower expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes, and the dollar index fell this week. Against a weaker dollar backdrop, the euro rose to $1.1440, up about 0.5% for the week; sterling rose to $1.3352, up about 1.1% for the week, its best performance in nearly three months. The yen rebounded from near a 40-year low, with USD/JPY once pulling back to around 161, though still at elevated levels. Japan continued to release signals of forex intervention, with finance and cabinet officials stating they are closely monitoring markets and remain prepared to intervene. Analysts pointed out that the dollar's movement has clearly been influenced by employment data and interest rate expectations, and if subsequent economic data continue to weaken, the dollar could still face further pressure. However, whether the yen can sustain its rebound still depends on the US-Japan interest rate differential and Japan's policy actions. (Jinshi Data APP) "Fed mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said: Trump stated that he considers Fed Chairman Warsh to be on the dovish side within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A day earlier, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett made similar remarks; a week earlier, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said he hoped the Fed would remain "open-minded" on inflation and expects the Fed to ease policy this year. A new era of "forward guidance"... (Jinshi Data APP) BNP Paribas Chief Economist Isabel Mateos y Lago said: "If July's nonfarm payrolls are very strong, close to or exceeding 130,000, then I think the July meeting will be full of suspense. The uncertainty may not be as high now, but in my view, the case for a Fed rate hike remains valid." Ahead of the July 4 holiday, short-term interest rate futures markets expected a roughly 20% probability of a Fed rate hike at the July 29 rate decision, down from 33% before the release of the payrolls report. Markets still expect the US Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points this year, but not until December at the earliest. For the ECB, Lagarde said, "The baseline expectation remains another rate hike in September. But it is worth noting that Governing Council members speaking at the Sintra meeting did not rule out skipping this additional hike." She warned that the normalization of energy supply could take six months or longer to take effect, and eurozone inflation could accelerate again. Even so, she also believes that consumer prices outside energy-affected areas will not face pressure. Allianz Chief Economist Ludovic Subran said, "The US non-farm payrolls data was actually weak, but I still think inflation will peak above 3.7%, and AI, fiscal stimulus and the energy sector are still supporting economic growth. The US Fed may have to raise rates in September. I think this is where the real divergence between Europe and the US lies." Subran believes that after last month's hike, the ECB will not act again. "That was an insurance hike, but judging from the current data, it seems that moment has passed," he said. "The trauma effect of the war (with Iran) takes time to manifest. The economy is still bearing the costs of war, but the situation is much better than a few weeks ago."(Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: ECB Governing Council member Mullan said that as falling oil prices ease price pressures in the eurozone, the ECB is in a favorable position after last month's rate hike. Mullan said that while it is too early to predict the next two meetings in July and September, officials have made clear that "we will not enter a new rate-hiking cycle." Mullan said, "For now, we are in a favorable position. The balance of risks is also at a reasonable level." Mullan added, "Falling oil prices will ease inflation pressure in the services sector," and "we have not yet seen second-round effects."(Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of Switzerland June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Eurozone July Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone May PPI m/m, Eurozone May retail sales m/m, US June S&P Global Services PMI Final, US June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, US June Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, Germany May seasonally adjusted industrial output m/m, UK June Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index m/m, France May trade balance, US ADP employment change for the week ended June 20, US May trade balance, China June foreign exchange reserves, Japan May trade balance, New Zealand interest rate decision for July 8, US May wholesale sales m/m, China June CPI y/y, China June PPI y/y, Germany May seasonally adjusted trade balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 4, US June existing home sales annualized, Germany June CPI m/m final, France June CPI m/m final, Switzerland June consumer confidence index, Canada June employment change, China June M2 money supply y/y, and other data. Additionally, events to watch this week include: a 900 billion yuan outright reverse repo maturing today; speeches from Fed Governor Waller, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel, ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, and Deputy Governor of Sveriges Riksbank Seim; Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its interest rate decision; RBNZ Governor Bremman holds a monetary policy press conference; the Fed releases minutes of its monetary policy meeting; the ECB releases minutes of its June monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; and 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan delivers a speech. Crude Oil: In overnight trading last Friday, both oil futures edged up slightly, with WTI up 0.13% and Brent up 0.19%. On the weekly chart: WTI futures fell for a fourth consecutive week, down 0.65% for the week; Brent futures also declined for a fourth straight week, down 0.91% for the week. The crude oil market is relatively stable, with Brent stabilizing near $72 per barrel as the market weighs the supply outlook around the Strait of Hormuz and the progress of US-Iran negotiations. (Wall Street News) Data from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) show: In the week ending June 30, Brent crude futures speculators cut their net long positions by 34,704 contracts to 55,634 contracts. Gasoil futures speculators cut their net long positions by 2,664 contracts to 57,852 contracts. (Jin10 Data APP) Data show that oil exports from the Gulf region in June increased by more than 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from May, exceeding 10 million bpd, but still 40% below pre-war levels. The UAE led the recovery in oil markets, enabling millions of barrels of crude stranded in the Gulf region to enter international markets, allowing producers to raise output and push oil prices down to pre-war levels. Kpler data show that combined crude and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran rose by more than 3.5 million bpd from May to 10.07 million bpd. Vortexa, another cargo analytics firm, estimated June shipments at 10.2 million bpd, up from 7 million bpd in May, but still well below the 16.5 million bpd recorded a year earlier. According to data from Kpler, Vortexa and LSEG, the UAE’s crude exports reached a record 3.7 million to 3.8 million bpd in June, more than 1 million bpd above May’s level. (Jin10 Data APP) Additionally, three sources said that Venezuela’s largest refinery, the 645,000-bpd Amuay refinery, has resumed operations after a power outage on Friday and is currently processing about 140,000 bpd of crude, with the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit also back online. Following two earthquakes last week that caused heavy casualties, multiple refineries in Venezuela were affected by power outages. Sources also said that the El Palito refinery, with a daily processing capacity of 146,000 barrels, has had power restored, but staff have not yet been able to restart the production units. (Jinshi Data APP) A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s crude oil production rebounded sharply in June, up about 3.3 million barrels per day MoM to 19.43 million barrels per day, a clear rebound from May’s more-than-two-decade low, but still well below quota levels. The recovery in output mainly came from Gulf countries restoring supply, with Kuwait posting the largest increase; Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq also raised output in tandem. Nigeria and Libya likewise made small increases. The UAE exited OPEC on May 1 and is no longer included in the statistics. The report noted that the earlier Iran war and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz had disrupted supply; the US subsequently lifted restrictions on vessels at Iranian ports, helping some output recover. Although OPEC+ had planned to increase production in June, the plan was not fully implemented due to the war. Overall, global crude oil supply was being repaired, but had not yet returned to normal levels. (Jinshi Data APP) Recommended Reading:

The US has eased additional sanctions on Venezuela to facilitate financial transactions related to earthquake relief after two powerful earthquakes struck the country on June 24, leaving at least 589 people dead, around 3,000 injured, and thousands still missing. Washington also pledged US$150 million in humanitarian assistance through non-profit organizations. While energy infrastructure was largely unaffected, international rescue teams have joined ongoing search and recovery efforts in the hardest-hit areas.

SMM, June 26: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market almost all fell. SHFE copper edged down, SHFE aluminum fell 0.38%, SHFE lead rose 0.15%, SHFE zinc fell 1%, SHFE tin dropped 1.7%, and SHFE nickel declined 1.81%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.4%, the most-traded alumina contract dropped 1.41%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract tumbled 5.26%, the most-traded silicon metal contract lost 0.89%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures fell 3.53%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore dropped 0.67%, rebar lost 0.64%, hot-rolled coil slipped 0.51%, and stainless steel dipped 0.21%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.92%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.21%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:43, LME metals all fell. LME copper dropped 1.55%, LME aluminum fell 0.97%, LME lead lost 0.39%, LME zinc declined 1.38%, LME tin tumbled 1.99%, and LME nickel fell 1.36%. Precious metals: as of 11:43, COMEX gold fell 0.9% and COMEX silver plunged 3.4%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold edged down 0.11%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract extended losses from the previous five trading days, falling another 2.72%, and hit an intraday low of 13,513 yuan/kg, the weakest since December 2025. Additionally, as of the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.31%, while the most-traded palladium futures fell 0.85%. As of the midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures added 0.7% to 3,686.5 points. Selected futures midday quotes as of 11:43, June 26: Spot and fundamentals Aluminum: The futures market stopped falling and edged up today. Spot aluminum in South China gradually weakened amid divergence. Low aluminum prices and strong destocking continued to support suppliers holding prices firm in selling... Macro front China: [National Energy Administration: During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it will continue to open up energy projects and issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects] Wan Jinsong, deputy director and spokesperson of the National Energy Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the administration will persist in the approach of open construction and service-driven investment, increasing support for private enterprises to engage in building a new-type energy system. For major energy projects, it will expand the investment space for private enterprises. For major projects with certain returns, such as nuclear power, hydropower, and oil and gas storage and transportation facilities, the feasibility of private enterprise participation will be assessed on a case-by-case basis. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, we will continue to open up energy projects, issue investment guidelines for private enterprises to participate in large and medium-sized hydropower projects and others, so that their investments have direction and returns are guaranteed. We will further improve the electricity market and pricing mechanism, and support private enterprises in investing in projects such as virtual power plants, charging facilities, and new-type energy storage. [Wang Hongzhi, Director of the National Energy Administration: China's installed power capacity is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030] Wang Hongzhi, member of the Party Leadership Group of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and Director of the National Energy Administration, stated at a press conference of the State Council Information Office that China's installed power capacity has now exceeded 4 billion kW and is expected to reach 5.4 billion kW by 2030. Among this, new energy will account for over 50% of installed capacity, becoming the mainstay of power capacity, while non-fossil fuel power generation will account for 50% of total electricity output, becoming the main source of electricity. Coal and oil consumption will have peaked. The PBOC conducted a 231.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation today at an interest rate of 1.4%, unchanged from the previous rate. No reverse repos matured today. The PBOC injected a net 329.7 billion yuan into the open market this week. (From Wallstreetcn APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:43, the US dollar index rose 0.01% to 101.47. According to CME "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 69%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 31%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 36.6%, cumulative 25-bp hike is 48.8%, and cumulative 50-bp hike is 14.6%. Fed Williams stated that the current monetary policy stance is well positioned to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target while acknowledging that risks to achieving its dual mandate remain. Williams said, "Given that inflation is elevated, we must bring it back sustainably to the 2% longer-run goal. The current stance of monetary policy is fully capable of achieving that." Williams noted that inflation is "clearly elevated" and well above the Committee's 2% objective. He expects inflation data to pull back slightly over the next few quarters, although significant risks remain. Fed Goolsbee said on Thursday that while the latest US inflation report showed a glimmer of hope for improvement in services inflation, underlying inflation pressures remain too high and concerning. In an interview with CNBC, Goolsbee declined to offer specific views on whether the Fed should raise rates or keep them unchanged. He said he agreed with Fed Chairman Warsh's view that fueling speculation about future interest rate paths should be avoided. (Jin10 Data APP) US data sent mixed signals while oil prices fell below pre-conflict levels. The May PCE inflation YoY matched average expectations, accelerating from 3.8% to 4.1%. Lower energy costs are expected to cool future inflation. May durable goods orders fell 4.5%, versus average expectations for a 4% decline. Meanwhile, Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised up from 1.6% to 2.1%, compared to expectations of 1.7%. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 215,000, against average expectations of 223,000. (Jin10 Data APP) A CITIC Securities research report said the US dollar index has strengthened rapidly in recent days, driving gold prices below the $4,000/oz mark. Fading inflation concerns did not push the dollar lower. We believe political “re-dollarization” may partly explain the dollar’s recent strength, but a more important driver likely comes from expectations of tightening dollar liquidity. We expect the dollar index to find support this year but struggle to sustain a strong rally, and the next US inflation data could be a catalyst for the market to adjust trading strategies. On the data front: The final US June University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and final June one-year inflation expectations will be released today. Also to watch: FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech; 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaks; 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks. On the crude oil front: As of 11:43, both crude benchmarks fell, with WTI down 1.67% and Brent down 1.54%. As shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed, supply concerns eased somewhat. However, a cargo vessel was attacked near Oman on Thursday, and markets will closely monitor geopolitical developments. S&P Global Energy reported on the 25th that 78 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on the 24th, the highest single-day tally since the outbreak of the Iran war. The daily average number of vessels transiting the Strait this month has recovered to about 57% of pre-conflict levels. As of the 24th, a cumulative total of 551 vessels had transited the Strait this month, putting it on track to be the busiest month since the war began. The report noted that recent departures from the Strait included vessels that had been stranded for long periods due to the conflict as well as recent arrivals, signaling early signs of normalization in shipping activity. However, whether the rebound in transit volumes can be sustained remains to be seen, and related agreements still need further consolidation and implementation. ((Xinhua News Agency) US Secretary of Energy Wright expects Iran's daily crude oil exports to reach up to 2 million barrels. Additionally, market sources say that crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf have rebounded to 75% of pre-war levels; in the past three days through Wednesday, the region exported 13 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10 Data App) An earlier Wallstreetcn article reported that the UAE formally withdrew from OPEC on May 1, and Iraq subsequently threatened to follow suit unless granted greater production freedom. Meanwhile, a series of geopolitical shocks—including the US takeover of Venezuelan oil assets and US-Israeli military actions against Iran—have significantly eroded OPEC's market control capability. Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[Price Review] This week (6.22-6.25) silver prices stayed high but under pressure, plunging sharply. The precious metals price center moved notably lower WoW amid multiple bearish macro factors. The US Fed's hawkish stance continued to weigh on sentiment, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports. Along with a stronger US dollar index, this created significant downward pressure on precious metals. US Treasury Secretary Bessent publicly stated that the US will maintain its strong dollar policy, and stressed that the future reintegration of countries like Iran and Venezuela into the dollar system would further consolidate the dollar's international standing. As a result, the US dollar index continued to rebound. On the geopolitical front, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement continued to advance, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returned to normal. On the industrial demand side, mainstream quotations for national standard silver ingots versus TD in the Shanghai market were basically flat WoW, with the market transaction center still mainly concentrated at Shanghai Gold Exchange TD parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg. As silver prices continued to decline, the procurement pace of downstream enterprises recovered somewhat, but overall was still dominated by just-in-time procurement, with limited willingness to stockpile in bulk and some enterprises showing noticeable fear of further price declines. On the inventory front, social inventories of silver ingots in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw slight destocking, with ongoing consumption from maintenance at some smelters and deliveries of export orders, but the supportive effect of inventory factors on prices was limited. As for the gold/silver ratio, by June 24 the LBMA gold/silver ratio had rebounded to around 67, with silver underperforming gold. [Key Data] Bearish: 1. US Treasury Secretary Bessent reiterated the strong dollar stance, stating that the dollar's international status would be further strengthened, driving the US dollar index to continue rebounding. 2. The hawkish impact of the Fed's June meeting continued to weigh, and several foreign investment banks raised their expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes in the latest reports. 3. US bond yields stayed high, with real rates keeping continuous pressure on precious metals, while capital allocation preferences remained skewed toward dollar assets. [Near-Term Focus] June 26: US Q1 GDP final reading; June 27: US May core PCE price index; July 3: US June non-farm payrolls data; Key focus: changes in US inflation data, Fed official remarks, US dollar index movements, and subsequent developments in the Middle East situation. [Price Forecast] Silver is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend next week. The current core market logic is the Fed's policy path and the US dollar’s movement. After the June meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance continues to weigh, and Bessent's recent strong dollar remarks have pushed the US dollar index higher. At the same time, US bond yields stay high, creating multiple macro pressures on silver. On the domestic fundamental side, the spot market overall maintained a just-in-time procurement pattern. Spot silver ingot social inventory continued destocking, but this was insufficient to alter the current macro-driven adjustment trend. The mainstream traded price for spot silver ingot is expected to remain within a range of parity to a premium of 20 yuan/kg over the SGE TD price, and further expansion of the premium will be difficult in the short term. Overall, with a strengthening US dollar and the US Fed maintaining a hawkish stance, silver still faces adjustment pressure in the near term. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend. Watch for further guidance from the US core PCE data on market expectations.

SMM, June 25: Metal markets: As of the noon close, base metals on the domestic market fell across the board, with SHFE copper down 1.82%, SHFE aluminum down 2.75%, SHFE lead down 0.7%, SHFE zinc down 1.64%, SHFE nickel down 0.92%, and SHFE tin down 1.76%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures fell 2.08%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1.29%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 1.75%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.29%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.33%. Ferrous metals mostly rose, with only stainless steel down 0.75%. Iron ore rose 0.2%, rebar rose 0.1%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. In the coking coal and coke segment: the most-traded coking coal contract inched up 0.08%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.28%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:38, LME metals rose across the board. LME copper rose 0.82%, LME aluminum rose 0.24%, LME lead rose 0.6%, LME zinc rose 0.31%, LME tin rose 2.02%, and LME nickel rose 0.77%. In precious metals, as of 11:38, COMEX gold fell 0.48%, and COMEX silver fell 2.02%. In domestic precious metals: SHFE gold declined 2.81%, hitting an intraday low of 868.34 yuan/g; the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 7.1%, with an intraday low of 13,560 yuan/kg. Additionally, as of the noon close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 4.39%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 3.54%. As of the noon close, the most-traded containerized freight index (Europe) futures fell 2.45% to 3,665.5 points. As of 11:38 on June 25, midday quotes for selected futures: Spot and fundamentals Silver: In the spot market, downstream consumption recovered somewhat after silver continued to decline. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly at TD parity to +20 yuan/kg... Macro front Domestic front: [China's power generation capacity exceeds 4 billion kW] On June 25, the National Energy Administration announced that as of the end of May 2026, China's power generation capacity reached 4.01 billion kW, ranking first globally. Non-fossil energy capacity became the absolute mainstay of capacity additions, and the energy mix continued to improve. The share of coal-fired power capacity fell from 61% in 2010 to 32% in May 2026; the share of non-fossil energy capacity rose from 25% in 2010 to 62% in May 2026; and the share of renewable energy capacity rose from 24% in 2010 to 61% in May 2026. (Xinhua) [PBOC reverse repo net injection of 322.5 billion yuan today] The PBOC conducted 370.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations today. With 300 billion yuan of 1-year MLF and 248 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net injection of 322.5 billion yuan. ((Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.07% to 101.51. All large US banks passed the Fed's annual stress test, paving the way for banks to boost share buybacks and dividends by tens of billions of dollars. The stress test aims to assess how Wall Street lenders would fare under hypothetical financial system shocks. Unlike in previous years, the 2026 test results will not affect capital requirements, as the Fed is continuously revising the test to make it more friendly to banks. This year's test examined how 32 large lenders would withstand a severe global shock amid greater stress in commercial and residential real estate markets and corporate debt markets. The hypothetical scenario included a severe global recession, a 39% drop in commercial real estate prices, and a 30% decline in residential prices. The unemployment rate also surged to a peak of 10%, with a corresponding decline in economic output. The regulators said, "Despite absorbing over $708 billion in loan losses under this year's hypothetical scenario, total capital fell by just 1.6 percentage points, still above the minimum capital requirement." According to CME FedWatch, the probability that the Fed keeps rates unchanged in July is 65.8%, while the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 34.2%. By September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 33.6%, of a cumulative 25bp hike is 49.7%, and of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.7%. US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Fed Chairman Warsh for eliminating forward guidance, and said no one should make dot plot forecasts. On the economy, he expects real wage growth to return to the pace seen before April and expects the economy to accelerate for the rest of the year without fueling inflation. He stressed that the dominance of the US dollar is crucial. He believes that once the situation in Ukraine is over, Russia will want to return to the dollar system, while a new Venezuela is returning to that system. During a period of rate cuts, the dollar can still remain strong, and the US is willing to take the right measures to keep the dollar strong. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of Australia's May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's July GfK Consumer Confidence Index, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 20, US May core PCE price index year-on-year, US May personal spending month-on-month, the final reading of US Q1 real GDP annualized quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 real personal consumption expenditures quarter-on-quarter, the final reading of US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarter-on-quarter, US May core PCE price index month-on-month, US May durable goods orders month-on-month, and other data. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Nvidia's annual shareholder meeting; the Bank of Canada's release of monetary policy meeting minutes; the US Federal Reserve's release of annual bank stress test results; Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo's attendance at a central bank lecture event hosted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF); Micron Technology's fiscal 2026 Q3 earnings call; and 300 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 248 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today. Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices on both exchanges continued to decline, extending losses from the previous three trading days, with WTI falling 1.69% and Brent falling 1.53%. Oil prices pulled back their wartime gains on Thursday as the market bet on improving global crude supply, with tankers that had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for months beginning to sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to data from maritime analytics firm Kpler, more than 20 tankers carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil have passed through the Strait of Hormuz since a US-Iran agreement reopened this critical shipping lane. These non-Iranian tankers had been stuck in the Persian Gulf for over three months after Tehran effectively blockaded the waterway early in the conflict. Most of these tankers are expected to arrive at Asian destinations by early August. Citigroup stated that the worst may be over for commodity futures carry trade strategies, which suffered massive losses during the US-Iran war as short positions in near-month contracts were hit hard by soaring prices, while long positions in forward contracts were bought. Citi noted that the current base case is for significant de-escalation, and predicts that as Strait of Hormuz shipping normalizes, Brent crude prices will fall to $60-$65 per barrel over the next 6 to 12 months. 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Today, SMM's 10:00 am Ag (T+D) price on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 13,816 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg, averaging +10 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks about Iran and Venezuela returning to the US dollar system further reinforced expectations for the dollar’s status as an international reserve currency. Combined with the market’s repricing of the Fed’s hawkish stance, the US dollar index strengthened significantly, exerting temporary pressure on precious metals. Major foreign investment banks all raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes in their latest reports, and precious metals faced interest rate headwinds, tumbling sharply. Spot market side, after silver continued to decline, downstream consumption recovered somewhat. Morning quotes in Shanghai were mainly in the range of parity against TD to +20 yuan/kg. Trader quotes leaned toward the higher end, while downstream enterprises negotiated and purchased, with deals leaning toward the lower end. Some suppliers had limited willingness to sell at month-end. Low-priced supplies in other regions were largely cleared out, and quotes in Shenzhen were mostly around a premium of 10 yuan/kg against TD. Today, the market’s premium/discount quote against the most-traded SHFE 2608 contract remained at a discount of around 30 yuan/kg. Overall, the spot silver market premium has been relatively stable recently, and transactions have recovered somewhat as absolute prices continued to decline. The precious metals futures remain under macro pressure in the short term.