Philippine Market: Port inventories continued to accumulate, high freight costs coupled with smelters pushing for lower prices, ore prices faced increasing downside risks This week, CIF China quotes for Philippine nickel ore were generally flat WoW, with no significant loosening or increases across various grades. Specific quotes were: CIF China: Ni 1.3% at $49–52/wmt, 1.4% at $57–60/wmt, 1.5% at $65–67/wmt; CIF Indonesia: 1.3% at approximately $48–50/wmt, 1.4% at approximately $56–58/wmt. Supply and Weather As of June 12, Philippine nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports totaled approximately 5.77 million wmt, equivalent to around 45,300 mt in nickel metal content, up WoW as supply remained ample. Weather conditions at mining areas were relatively manageable, with no major typhoons or heavy rainfall disrupting supply chains recently. However, spot freight rates stayed high, providing minimal support for miners' FOB prices, intensifying cost pressure on miners' shipments. Some mines opted to hold off on shipments, awaiting next week's new round of bidding results before making decisions. Demand and Inventory Demand side, smelters' desire to bargain down prices remained strong, continuing to pressure miners with ample inventories, while the buyer-dominant landscape persisted. Smelters in both China and Indonesia held inventories that fluctuated at highs, with weak short-term restocking willingness and sluggish trading in the market. Considering the continued accumulation of port inventories, high freight costs squeezing miner margins, coordinated price pushing by smelters, and rising wait-and-see sentiment among miners, ore prices could edge down further in the coming weeks. Indonesian Market: Smelters' High Inventories Continued to Weigh on Prices, Premiums Showed a Narrowing Trend The HMA was unchanged at $18,799.29/mt. Theoretical HPM prices were: Ni 1.6% at approximately $70.75/wmt, 1.2% at approximately $49.84/wmt. The delivery-to-factory price for 1.6% ore was $73.8–78.8/wmt, with premiums at +3 to +8 dollars, flat WoW and significantly narrower than earlier highs. Looking ahead, with ore supply continuing to be ample and smelters' willingness to bargain down prices increasing, premiums are expected to have room to decline further. Indonesia's local ore supply was relatively abundant, with some mines taking advantage of weather windows to maximize production. According to BMKG: Sulawesi (Morowali Utara) experienced relatively dry weather with calm seas and smooth shipping; East Halmahera saw persistent rainfall with wave heights of 1.4–2.0 m; Obi had light rain with wave heights of 1.3–1.6 m, with shipment efficiency affected in both areas. This week, the saprolite ore market saw ample cargo availability and relatively active trading volumes. However, with inventories at many smelters staying at sufficient levels, the desire to push for lower prices strengthened noticeably. In some industrial parks, unloading vehicle queues appeared this week, directly reflecting the market reality of loose ore supply and persistently high delivery-to-factory volumes. Traded grades were concentrated at 1.45–1.50% Ni, while high-grade ore (≥1.6%) remained scarce. In addition, spot limonite ore was priced at approximately $26–34/wmt, with the price range widening. The market exhibited some divergence, with select transactions at lower prices and a few at higher levels, as the overall center shifted slightly lower WoW, mainly dragged down by high freight costs. The discount to the theoretical HPM price remained deep and detached. Sulphuric acid supply stayed relatively tight, HPAL operating rates were low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore remained under pressure. Policy Developments Newly approved RKAB for nickel ore were relatively rare this week, with the market widely expecting more approvals to be released in July. Meanwhile, Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia stated that the government would implement an "orderly and flexible" policy for 2026 mineral and coal RKAB, where production quota adjustments would be linked to global commodity price trends and domestic industrial demand—moderately expanding production when prices rise and tightening promptly when prices are under pressure to maintain supply-demand balance. This statement reserved policy space for within-year quota revisions, warranting ongoing market attention to the release periods of subsequent official documents. The DSI takeover mechanism for ferroalloy exports entered a transition period on June 1, with NPI (HS 7202.60.00) highly likely to be included; Harita’s PT Trimegah had already completed the first DSI single-window export declaration, with smooth operations. The government was simultaneously pushing forward a strict crackdown on under-invoiced contracts, with relevant departments set to consult with industry associations to close loopholes.
Jun 12, 2026 19:45![[SMM Conference] ICM 2026: Global Ni & Co Outlook: Mine Opportunities & Challenges, Investment in Indonesia](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesozMBI20260610115722.jpeg)
From June 3 to June 5, Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 120+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Additionally, SMM has also meticulously arranged two rounds of panel discussions: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Conference Background In recent years, global nickel and cobalt raw material supply has frequently encountered various disruptions: Indonesia significantly lowered its nickel ore mining quota to 260–270 million mt, tightening nickel resource release at the source; the DRC continuously reduced cobalt ore export quotas, leading to a marked contraction in tradable cobalt raw materials worldwide. Multiple supply variables continued to roil nickel and cobalt commodity futures. Meanwhile, Indonesia is not only the core hub of the global nickel industry chain but also a key production area for global new cobalt supply at this stage. Its industrial control policies, commissioning pace of capacity, and industry chain layout changes directly shape the evolution of the global nickel-cobalt supply-demand pattern. Currently, the global nickel and cobalt industry is at a critical development stage featuring supply-demand restructuring, policy innovation, and value reassessment. To accurately forecast the nickel and cobalt market trends in 2026, deeply analyze the latest industrial control details in Indonesia, and help upstream and downstream players across the industry chain break down collaboration barriers, the Nickel and Cobalt Forum was launched. The forum brought together global mines, smelters, trading firms, downstream end-users, and investment and financing institutions to conduct in-depth discussions on key topics such as market supply and demand trends, policies and regulations, production technology iteration, and cross-border industrial cooperation, jointly exploring new growth drivers for high-quality industry development. Click to view the conference photo gallery June 4: Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Mining Regulatory Outlook: RKAB Quota Planning and Indonesia's Next-Phase Downstream Mineral Expansion Path Guest Speaker: Totoh Abdul Fatah, Secretary General of the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Totoh Abdul Fatah noted that RKAB is the key policy instrument for Indonesia to regulate mineral output, coordinate the orderly rollout of industries, and align with the nation's downstream industrialization priorities. Indonesia is endowed with exceptional mineral and coal resources, with significant reserves and capacity in several key strategic commodities including nickel, cobalt, copper, tin, bauxite, gold and silver, and iron ore. Leveraging these unique resource advantages, Indonesia holds a critical strategic position in the global mineral supply chain, and its value is especially prominent in the energy transition wave, providing strong support for the development of power batteries, renewable energy equipment, and high-end manufacturing. The next phase of downstream mineral development is not about curbing growth, but about improving development quality, clarifying development direction, strengthening regulatory management, and reinforcing the sustainability of growth. Future smelter layout must match ore supply capability, be aligned with resource conservation, and coordinate multiple factors including energy infrastructure readiness, environmental protection access standards, and domestic industry value addition. In light of these considerations, the Indonesian government is promoting an industrial logic shift from pure capacity expansion to strategic optimization of resource allocation, ensuring that mineral resources are precisely directed to industry segments that can maximize national economic benefits. Indonesia's downstream mineral industrialization has made concrete progress. Currently, 14 smelters are in operation, primarily producing products such as nickel oxide, pig iron, and copper cathode. Covering both existing operating plants and new projects under construction, the entire industry chain has attracted a total realized investment of $7.849 billion. Breakdown: nickel sector investment of $2.535 billion, aluminum sector $2.181 billion, iron ore projects $47 million, and copper sector $3.084 billion. This is continuously improving the supporting system of the domestic mineral industry chain. This progress demonstrates that Indonesia's downstream mineral policy has achieved tangible results. However, challenges remain for the industry: not only must new smelting projects be completed and commissioned on schedule, but they also require stable supporting supply to achieve efficient operations, green and low-carbon production, and deep integration into the domestic industry chain value system. Indonesia's development direction is very clear: the downstream transformation of minerals will continue to advance, and during the implementation process, policy enforcement constraints and top-level strategic guidance will be further strengthened. The RKAB management system and ore source allocation control rules are key to building a robust and more resilient industrial ecosystem. Future smelting project planning needs to coordinate four key dimensions: sustainable resource development, supply-demand market equilibrium, ESG compliance implementation, and enhancement of national value added. Indonesia has always been open to quality investment, especially high-quality investment, relying on foreign capital to achieve technology transfer and localization, expand local employment, and support long-term economic growth. In other words, Indonesia's industrial development not only pursues growth, but is committed to achieving high-quality growth that is compliant, sustainable, and globally competitive. Keynote Speech: Nickel at a Crossroads:A Five-Year Outlook on Global Nickel — Navigating Policy, Supply, and Demand Shifts Speaker: Thomas Feng, Head of Industry Research, Shanghai Metals Market Feng projects that the global primary nickel market will show a supply deficit in 2026, continue the oversupply trend in 2027, and shift to a tight balance in 2029. Regarding refined nickel prices, on the cost side, global sulfur supply and demand will face a persistent deficit in the next 2–3 years. In the case of short-term strait blockades, sulfur prices remain high, strengthening the cost support for the sulfur-MHP-refined nickel chain. From a macro perspective, the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has triggered wild swings in energy prices, pushing up inflation expectations. In the short term, global commodity prices will face considerable fluctuations. In the long term, global geopolitical uncertainty may become the new normal in the future, increasing the volatility of refined nickel prices. Nickel Ore Upstream Repricing: Indonesia's Benchmark Price Raise, Quota Tightening, and Increased Dependence on the Philippines Indonesia Nickel Ore RKAB Quotas: Tight Balance Emerges as the 2026 Main Theme According to SMM analysis, following the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources' (ESDM) official denial of market rumors that RKAB production quotas would be raised across the board by 25%–30%, the government will handle supplementary quotas under strict case-by-case reviews starting from H2 2026, evaluating each miner's compliance, capacity, and resource reserves. At its core, this constitutes a routine and orderly optimisation of the existing 260–270 million wmt quota cap, paving the way for a more stable and sustainable market environment. Supply RKAB Approval Progress: As of April, Indonesia's cumulative approved RKAB quotas stand at 240 million wmt. SMM expects that, under expectations of continued nickel ore supply tightening, supplementary quotas around mid-year 2026 will be approximately 15%. Philippine Import Driver: SMM expects that this year, Indonesia's nickel ore imports from the Philippines will rise from approximately 15 million in 2025 to 22 million. Tightness in the domestic trade nickel ore supply will accelerate supplementation through imports from the Philippines. Demand Affected by the tight sulfur supply, MHP output has fallen short of earlier expectations. As a result, Indonesia's nickel ore demand for full-year 2026 is expected to be reduced to 303 million wmt. In 2026, actual nickel ore production will remain constrained by factors such as the rainy season and the pace of RKAB quota approvals, leaving overall output below theoretical supply levels. Panel Discussion: Upstream Opportunities & Challenges for Nickel Mine Owners Moderator: Enzo Brooklyn, Senior Nickel Analyst, SMM Panelists: Luca Maiotti, Policy Analyst, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Aldo Namora, President Director, PT Ceria Metalindo Prima Jerome Baudelet, CEO, Eramet Indonesia Patrick Lim, Country Head, HyperStrong Indonesia Keynote Speech: Achieving Energy Efficiency and Operational Success: The MMD Approach at Mah Moe Speaker: Fuad Budidarma Pratama, General Manager, MMD Mining Machinery Indonesia Keynote Speech: Global Nickel Market Outlook Speaker: Ricardo Ferreira, Director of Market Research and Statistics, International Nickel Study Group (INSG) Ricardo Ferreira noted that global primary nickel production is estimated to have declined by approximately 4% YoY, measured across the full chain from raw ore mining to finished primary nickel products. Most of this decrease originated from Indonesia, while expectations also pointed to a pullback in Chinese nickel output. According to the monthly bulletin released earlier, global primary nickel already edged down by about 1% in Q1, with Indonesia down roughly 3% and China down about 1%. Keynote Speech: New Refining Technologies for Laterite Nickel and Spent Batteries Speaker: Dr. Chunwei Liu, Managing Director of Resource Extraction, Botree Recycling Technologies Distribution of Laterite Nickel Ore Resources Laterite nickel ore accounts for 55% of global nickel resources and is the main source of nickel for industrial production worldwide. With the continuous development and promotion of high-nickel batteries, market demand for nickel—and consequently for laterite nickel ore processing—has grown significantly. Geographic concentration: Mainly distributed in tropical countries within 30° north and south of the equator. Three core regions: Southeast Asia: Indonesia, the Philippines (major laterite nickel ore producing areas). Americas: Cuba, Brazil. Oceania: Australia, New Caledonia. Panel Discussion: Nickel Price Volatility, Product Spreads, and Policy Shifts: What Will Define the Market in the next 5 years? Moderator: Slupek Kamila, Secretary-General, INSG Panelists: Jim Lennon, Analyst, Macquarie Septian Hario Seto, Member, National Economic Council Republic of Indonesia Denis Sharypin, Strategic Marketing Director, Norilsk Nickel Edric Koh, Head of Corporate Sales, Asia, London Metal Exchange Mark Selby, CEO & Director, Canada Nickel Company Keynote Speech: Korean Battery Supply Chain Strategy and Indonesia's Role Speaker: James (IKHWAN) Choi, Country Manager, Korea Office, SMM Korea Office Keynote Speech: Retreat or Evolve? The Counter-Attack of High-Nickel Batteries under the LFP Siege: Solid State, 4680, and the "Range Anxiety" Premium Speaker: Jared Zhu, Head of Consulting, Renewable Energy & Non-ferrous Metals, Shanghai Metals Market Jared noted that LFP batteries have steadily increased their market share in power battery and energy storage markets in recent years. With the rapid development of emerging sectors such as humanoid robots, industrial robots, and electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles (eVTOL), ternary batteries, leveraging their performance advantages, are more competitive than LFP batteries. Solid-state batteries are regarded by the industry as a must-win field for future competition, but it is worth noting that this new technology, capable of rewriting industry rules, still has a long development cycle before full commercialization. Positioning in the LFP Era LFP Accelerates Replacement of Ni-Co-Mn in Energy Storage and EVs, Leading in Scale and Growth SMM forecasts the global share of EV power battery types from 2026 to 2027, expecting LFP batteries to account for around 68% in 2026, with that ratio rising to about 70% in 2027. For ESS battery types, from 2022 to 2025, the share of LFP batteries in global ESS batteries continued to rise, and in 2026, it is expected to increase to around 99%. Keynote Speech: QMAG - Market Leader of Calcined Magnesia for Nickel/Cobalt MHP Production Speaker: Christoph Beyer, Managing Director of Queensland Magnesia (QMAG) Dr. Keynote Speech: Cobalt in Focus: Powering the Next Chapter of Critical Minerals Speaker: Dinah McLeod, Director General, Cobalt Institute June 5: Nickel and Cobalt Forum Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Balancing Risk and Reward: Investing in Indonesia's Nickel and Cobalt Value Chain Speaker: Izzie Huo, Senior Research Fellow, Shanghai Metals Market Panel Discussion: Too Much Nickel? Balancing Oversupply Risks with Long-Term Investment in Indonesia Moderator: Jean Tang, Commercial Director, Shanghai Metals Market Panelists: Ali Safdar, Managing Director & Partner, BCG (Boston Consulting Group) Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman, Forum Industri Nikel Indonesia (FINI) Ditya Maharhani Harninda, Senior Vice President Corporate Banking 2, PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (Persero) Keynote Speech: Valve Solutions for Severe Service in HPAL Speaker: Changsong Deng, President of International Business Division, ANTIWEAR Keynote Speech: Breaking the Import Dependency: Economics and Feasibility of Pyrite-based Acid Production for Indonesia's HPAL Supply Chain Speaker: Bede Beresford Evans, President Director, PT Sumbawa Timur Mining Keynote Speech: Key Technology and Economic Analysis of AI Power Microgrid Solutions in Mining Speaker: Frank Qi, CEO, Ai Power (Suzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. Keynote Speech: Value of Analytical Solutions in Mining Processes Speaker: Toh Tiong Yen, Sales Manager, Malvern Panalytical Keynote Speech: New Caledonia's Nickel Landscape Speaker: Gabriel Bensimon, Special Advisor to the President of the Government on Nickel and Mining-Related Matters, The Government of New Caledonia Keynote Speech: Global Flow of Nickel from Mining to End-Use Speaker: Dr. Steukers Veronique, President, Nickel Institute Primary nickel production is now dominated by Indonesia. In 2025, Indonesia produced around 50% of the world's primary nickel, compared to just 6% a decade earlier. Primary nickel production in the rest of the world declined. In 2025, primary nickel production in the rest of the world, excluding Indonesia and China, accounted for just over 20% of the global total, down from 65% a decade earlier. Indonesia and China are the core driving forces shaping the global nickel supply chain landscape. From the perspective of nickel product circulation structure, NPI, backed by Indonesia's capacity advantage, firmly dominates the circulation mainstream; in terms of global nickel raw material supply by grade, Class 2 nickel accounts for approximately 58%, Class 1 nickel for just under 30%, and nickel chemical products for the remaining around 13%. Panel Discussion: Meet the Future of ESG: Standard, Challenges and Opportunities in Mining and Processing Moderator: Katz Benjamin, Policy Analyst, OECD Panelists: Dr. Chris Schlekat, Executive Director of NIPERA, Nickel Institute Ning Wang, Manager, Sustainable Development Department, China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Importers & Exporters Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Vinícius Mendes Ferreira, Executive Advisor for Nickel Downstreaming, PT Vale Indonesia Fan Li, Sustainability and ESG Services Manager, dss+ Tom Fairlie, Senior Sustainability Manager, Cobalt Institute
Jun 12, 2026 16:11![[SMM Conference] ICM 2026: Focusing on Ni, Co, Al, Sn & Strategic Metals, Navigating Green Transition](https://imgqn.smm.cn/production/admin/votes/imagesPrEyC20260610144046.jpeg)
From June 3 to June 5, the Indonesia Critical Minerals 2026 was held at the Pullman Jakarta Central Park in Jakarta, Indonesia. The conference was organized by Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) and co-organized by the Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) , the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia , the National Economic Council of Indonesia , and MMR , in a strategic partnership with the Jakarta Futures Exchange . The conference featured six dedicated forums: the main forum, the nickel and cobalt forum, the tin forum, the coal & energy transition forum, the aluminum forum, and dedicated sub-forums, attracting more than 3,500+ attendees from 45 countries and regions worldwide, featuring more than 150+ speakers sharing insights on market prices, supply-demand patterns, industry policies, low-carbon development, and ESG development, etc. Conference Background In the process of global industrial upgrading, the strategic value of critical metals has become increasingly prominent, and Southeast Asia has gradually emerged as a highly dynamic segment of the global mining landscape. As a major regional mineral producer, Indonesia has successively introduced multiple industrial policies for critical metals such as nickel, tin, aluminum, and copper, adjusting and optimizing areas including mining quotas, pricing mechanisms, tax policies, export management, and domestic market obligation over recent years. These efforts are guided by the goals of strengthening the regulatory framework, enhancing industrial added value, and optimizing resource revenues, and have had a significant impact on the global metal supply chain and market dynamics. As Indonesia’s premier flagship event for the mineral industry, this conference focuses on supply chain security of critical minerals including nickel, cobalt and tin, and adopts a dual-driven model of mining and energy. It commits to promoting Indonesia’s industrial upgrading from raw material export to high-value industrial chain development, while providing solid resource support and practical cooperation paradigms for regional and global energy transition. 》Click to view the photo gallery of the conference June 3: Main Forum Opening Ceremony Adam Fan, Chairman, Shanghai Metals Market Nanan Soekarna, Chairman, APNI Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku, North Maluku Government Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministry of Investment and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Drum Performance & Dance Show Opening Address Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam stated that this year marks the 4th year of the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference. This flagship industry event is dedicated to building a global platform connecting Indonesia with the world. Empowering mineral resources through technology, the conference links producers and consumers to facilitate industrial chain and business cooperation. Boasting a record-high attendance, this year’s event gathers 3,500+ participants and 150+ speakers. The growing participation of global countries, enterprises and industry professionals demonstrates rising international trust and confidence in Indonesia’s critical mineral ecosystem. As cross-border collaboration is essential for building a robust global critical minerals supply chain, the conference strives to enhance supply chain transparency, interconnectivity and in-depth global industrial cooperation by bringing together industry insights and resources. Speaker: Nanan Soekarna, Chairman of APNI Nanan Soekarna stated in his remarks that the 4th Indonesia Critical Minerals was the largest to date in terms of attendance, demonstrating the global industry’s full confidence in Indonesia’s minerals industry, cross-border cooperation models, and Indonesia’s roadmap for sustainable mining development, and he extended his sincere gratitude to all participating partners. He noted that the core of development in the critical minerals sector has shifted from a simple contest of resources and capacity to the transformation of the sustainable value of natural resources, balancing diverse economic, social, and environmental benefits. By deepening downstream industry chain expansion, Indonesia aims both to enhance industrial value-added and to strengthen Indonesia's industrial positioning international and credibility in the global market. In the future, the core of global mining competition will not lie in resource reserves, but in transparent, responsible, and sustainable resource governance capabilities. Relying on global partners, Indonesia will uphold the philosophy of sustainable mining development and, through high-quality cooperation and shared value principles, work together to build the future of the critical minerals industry that balances ecology, benefits, and long-term development. Speaker: Arif Havas Oegroseno, Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Arif Havas Oegroseno mentioned that critical minerals are increasingly becoming a focal point of global geopolitical competition, with elements such as energy, minerals, and trade and economic rules being instrumentalized from time to time. Leveraging its domestic resource endowments, Indonesia is vigorously advancing downstream deep processing of minerals; this strategy is not limited to industrial upgrading, but is also a comprehensive development initiative that boosts employment, consolidates science and technology innovation capabilities, enhances industry chain resilience, and delivers inclusive gains from green development. In response to procurement demands from multiple parties, Indonesia adheres to a diversified cooperation approach by expanding a diverse range of procurement partners and promoting deeper participation by resource countries in technology R&D and industry chain value-added, thereby avoiding the risks of dependence on a single partnership. He also noted that for the future governance of critical minerals, ESG should truly become a competitive advantage for enterprises rather than a trade barrier, with its original purpose being to optimize environmental management, improve social responsibility, and empower enterprises to enhance quality and efficiency. In the face of a new round of industrial transformation, critical minerals serve as the core raw materials for energy transition, the digital economy, and the development of high-tech industries. Based on its resource endowment, Indonesia is determined to transform from a mineral resource producer into a reliable partner in the global industry chain and a co-builder of industry rules. It invites global investors, industry chain producers, and resource-producing countries to join hands, uphold the spirit of partnership, reject unreasonable additional conditions, and jointly build a new global pattern for critical minerals that is inclusive and universally beneficial. Keynote Speech: Investing in Critical Minerals Downstreaming: Unlocking the Full Value of Indonesia's Resources Guest Speaker: Todotua Pasaribu, Vice Minister, Ministry of Investment and Downstream Industry of Indonesia Todotua Pasaribu stated that against the backdrop of climbing global demand for critical minerals and concentrated resource origins, the strategic attributes of this category continue to stand out. Indonesia, leveraging its resource endowment, vigorously promotes the downstream transformation of the entire industry chain, which is a core national policy to boost the economy and optimize supply chain structures. Under the president's policy deployment, Indonesia has designated mineral deep processing as a pillar of industrial upgrading. The authorities have delineated 28 categories of strategic minerals across eight major sectors and estimated potential investment in related tracks at approximately $618 billion, which is expected to create 3 million new jobs annually upon implementation. The country has set investment attraction targets from 2024 to 2029, accompanied by annual implementation plans. The 2026 target is clear, and investment implementation progress in the first quarter has been steady. In recent years, downstream industry investment has accounted for nearly 30% of national fixed asset investment, becoming a key driver to boost the economy and helping the country sprint toward the 8% economic growth target by 2029. He further explained that Indonesia has already established downstream layouts in multiple critical mineral tracks, including nickel, tin, aluminum, copper, PV raw materials, and semiconductor raw materials. The nickel industry has extended from stainless steel production to the entire power battery industry chain, while the tin, aluminum, and copper sectors continue to expand into deep processing, electronic materials, and other high-value-added categories, synchronously deploying supporting industry chains for PV and semiconductors. To solidify the conditions for industrial implementation, Indonesia has optimized the business environment in three aspects: accelerating approval processes, providing infrastructure support, and offering policy incentives. It has shortened project approval cycles, improved supporting facilities for hydropower, ports, and transportation, and implemented supportive measures such as tax reductions and tariff preferences, continuously attracting global capital and technological cooperation. This drives the country's transformation from a raw material exporter to a high-value-added product manufacturer, relying on multi-party collaboration to convert local mineral resources into sustainable industrial benefits. Guest Speaker: Ciyong Zou, Deputy to the Director General and Managing Director of the Directorate of Technical Cooperation and Sustainable Industrial Development, UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Zou Ciyong said global demand for critical minerals continues to rise along with the rapid development of clean energy and digital industries, and the role of resource countries in ensuring stable mineral supply is becoming increasingly critical. Indonesia's transformation path from raw material extraction to deep processing can provide reference for resource countries in the Global South. Currently, mining development still faces multiple challenges such as environmental protection, carbon emissions, and livelihood supporting facilities. Sustainable development has become an imperative for the industry, which needs to balance economic benefits, green development and social inclusion. Leveraging its multilateral platform advantages, UNIDO empowers its member states in multiple dimensions, including industrial policy, technology transfer, investment and financing, and capacity building, promotes the establishment of a Global Green Mining Cooperation Alliance, and has implemented a demonstration project of the Indonesia Nickel Industry Eco-Industrial Park, using the project as a model to explore a sustainable development path for global mining. He pointed out that the long-term development of the critical minerals industry cannot be separated from in-depth international cooperation, and it is necessary to establish transparent public-private partnerships, build resilient supply chains, and uniformly implement common industry standards. Indonesia intends to join forces with partners from all sectors to tap the development potential of the industry, while insisting on placing environmental protection and sustainability at the forefront of industrial development. In the future, UNIDO will continue to engage with governments, industries and capital from multiple parties, working together to achieve coordinated economic, social and environmental benefits from mineral resources. Keynote Speeches Keynote Speech: Beyond Volume: How North Maluku Can Lead Indonesia’s Next Phase of Sustainable Downstream Growth? Guest Speaker: Sherly Tjoanda, Governor of North Maluku Province Sherly Tjoanda elaborated on how North Maluku can lead Indonesia's next phase of sustainable downstream development from the perspectives of geographical location, transportation advantages, skilled talent reserves, and the fact that North Maluku's nickel ore is high-grade ore. Keynote Speech: Two Decades of Critical Minerals: 2016-2036 - How Supply Structures Shape Market Dynamics Guest Speaker: Shirley Wang, VP, Shanghai Metals Market The Rule —Why resource-rich nations must process, not just mine A 1931 Question: Mine Today, or Wait? Hotelling gave mining a theoretical anchor. It was elegant — and incomplete. A rational resource-based country should ensure the rate of price increase is exactly equal to the return on investment (Interest rate) Four Reasons the Real World Departs from the Formula Substitution, policy shifts, demand surprises, and costs — each bends the expected path The Quiet Force Behind All of This Ore grades decline everywhere. Building downstream is not ambition. It is adaptation. Shirley analyzed this by comparing ore grades for nickel, tin, copper, alumina, and others for the years 2016, 2026, and 2036. ► Strategic Insight: Why Low-Grade Ore Is Changing the Rules • Continuously declining grades are forcing industrial upgrading and iteration. Deteriorating raw ore quality is driving mines and smelters to optimize production, increasing the utilization of low-grade ore, the application of new processes, and the recycling of secondary resources. • Pricing power is gradually shifting from trading markets to resource-rich governments. As high-grade mineral deposits are depleted, the impact of short-term supply and demand on prices weakens, and the pace at which resource-rich nations release supply becomes the core variable. Industry Mainline: Commonalities in Two Decades of Development Across Five Metals Nickel: Where One Country Anchors the Market Indonesia influences marginal incremental nickel supply, and the commissioning pace of its domestic industry dominates global nickel price movements. The analysis incorporated the global distribution of nickel mine capacity. Cost Structures Are Moving Apart RKEF costs face the steepest climb. Scale mattered yesterday. Cost discipline matters tomorrow. The Ore Base Is Quietly Shifting Looking at changes in the global nickel production cost structure, the primary low-cost raw material was high-grade primary nickel ore before 2015. From 2016 to 2026, the share of low-grade ore and laterite nickel ore mining has been climbing steadily. Currently, laterite nickel ore stands as the most cost-competitive raw material. As laterite nickel ore grades decline, future nickel production based on sulphide ore may increase. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Green Nickel: From Us To The Next Generation Guest Speaker: Joseph Hong, President Commissioner, Neo Energy Keynote Speech: AI is NOT optional! Guest Speaker: Adam Fan, Chairman of SMM Adam noted that AI has become an essential requirement for the digital upgrade of the commodity industry. Leveraging a new AI technology system, SMM integrates macro and micro data, market intelligence, and industrial information through full-process intelligent processing, and with human-machine collaboration automatically generates in-depth industry reports — surpassing traditional manual approaches comprehensively in terms of timeliness, coverage, personalization, and depth of analysis. SMM has now deployed a mature industry AI solution: leveraging SMM’s massive database and customized AI capabilities, enterprises can enable intelligent inquiries, interactive reviews, and dynamic strategy simulations, accurately serving transaction analysis, production planning, and inventory strategies for non-ferrous metals such as cobalt, nickel, and copper. SMM AI Data Services offer a three-tier progressive intelligent solution for the metals industry: Instant Inquiry → Xiao Jin (Metrix): access real-time price trends and market insights, with data sourced from a premium subscription-grade database and insights calibrated by senior analysts; In-depth Research → Deep Report: a chapter-by-chapter analysis by product and region, featuring traceable charts and citations, and continuously updated as market conditions evolve; System Integration → MCP Data Services: covering over 200,000 real-time data indicators and more than 60 products across the entire industry chain, a single integration embeds the service into the enterprise AI framework. Keynote Speech: Indonesia's Post-Election Economy: Can the Country Sustain 5–6% Growth Amid Fiscal Pressures, Weak Export Prices and Heavy Industrial Power Subsidies? Speaker: Andre Simangunsong, Head of Mandiri Institute, Office of Chief Economist, Bank Mandiri Andre Simangunsong said Indonesia’s GDP grew by 5.6% in Q1 2026, with a full-year baseline forecast of 5.2%. The strong Q1 growth was primarily driven by a low base effect from delayed fiscal spending in 2025 and the front-loading of this year’s fiscal disbursements. The full year faces uncertainties from rising crude oil prices, geopolitical fluctuations, and a widening fiscal deficit. The 2026 fiscal budget is approximately IDR 2,000 trillion, focusing on eight key areas such as education and food security; 19 major industrial projects have already commenced, with nickel smelting and industry chain parks accelerating establishment, propelling the mineral sector’s transformation from raw resource exports to high-value-added deep processing. Indonesia has revised nickel ore royalty rules, introducing progressive royalty rates, promoting the upgrade of nickel products from nickel pig iron (NPI) to MHP and nickel sulphate, and laying out hydrometallurgical processing for low-grade ores; the outlook for the tin industry is positive. The banking sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio remains stable at 85%, and Bank Mandiri is advancing digital transformation and ESG-compliant lending to empower downstream industry projects. By combining industrial, fiscal, and financial strengths, Indonesia is expected to maintain a growth range of 5%–6% in the medium and long term. CXO Panel: Senior Executives' Roadmaps to Overcome Resource, Cost, Technology & ESG Challenges Moderator: Laksmi Kusumawati, Director of Downstream Planning and International Economic Cooperation, Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas Panelists: Bernardus Irmanto, President Director, PT Vale Indonesia Alex Sun, Chief Sustainability Officer and Vice President, Integrated Energy Service and Carbon Management, Envision Group Marvin R. Reinhart, Portfolio Management Department Head, Indonesia Battery Corporation Ilhamsyah Mahendra, Production & Commercial Director, PT Timah Tbk Keynote Speech: Breaking the Diesel Dependency: Reliable, Affordable Energy for Island Mines Speaker: Mr. Fred Ge, C&I BESS Technical Solution Manager in Asia-Pacific, Sungrow Panel Discussion: The "Green Premium" Myth vs. Reality: Who Will Pay for Decarbonization in the Critical Minerals Supply Chain? Moderator: MARCO KAMIYA, UNIDO Representative, Regional Office in Jakarta for Indonesia, Timor Leste and the Philippines UNIDO (United Nations Industrial Development Organization) Panelists: Ary Sudijanto, Deputy for Climate Change Control and Carbon Economic Value Governance, Ministry of Environment, Government of Indonesia Antti Koulumies, CEO, Terrafame Anna Stancher, Senior Project Manager, Responsible Minerals Initiative Yumo Li, Head of ESG Office in Tsingshan Board, Tsingshan Holding Group Lihui Sun, Vice President, Chief Sustainability Officer, Huayou Cobalt Cocktail Party We extend our sincere gratitude to the global logistics leader Access World for its exclusive sponsorship of the cocktail party at this conference. Founded in 1933, Access World has grown from a family business into an international logistics organization operating in 25 countries, with a strategically located network of ports and warehousing facilities in prime locations, ensuring the efficient daily handling and flow of goods. As an end-to-end logistics service provider, Access World has long been committed to simplifying global supply chains and enhancing the efficiency of commodity circulation. It is worth noting that this marks the second consecutive year Access World has generously sponsored the cocktail dinner at the Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Minerals Conference. For this steadfast commitment and dedication to deeply cultivating the industry and continuously empowering industry exchanges, the organizing committee and all attendees express our deep respect and gratitude. Check-in & Networking
Jun 12, 2026 16:11[A Large Alumina Refinery in Shandong Adjusts Liquid Caustic Soda Purchase Price] According to SMM, starting from June 12, a large alumina refinery in Shandong adjusted the purchase price of 32% ion membrane liquid alkali, increasing it by 15 yuan/liquid mt from the previous 575 yuan/liquid mt. The EX-Work price is set at 590 yuan/liquid mt,equivalent to approximately 1,844 yuan/mt(price adjusted on a 100% concentration basis).
Jun 11, 2026 18:06On June 11, the average warrant price remained flat from the previous trading day, reported at $59/mt (price range: $54-64/mt); the average B/L price was also unchanged, at $61/mt (price range: $55-67/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price held steady at $29/mt (price range: $24-34/mt), with quotes referencing cargoes arriving in mid-to-late June and early July. Intraday spot market sentiment was similar to yesterday, noting that the SHFE/LME price ratio recovered, and buyers’ purchase willingness increased somewhat. EQ arrivals were heard to be traded around $15-20/mt, with a small volume of late-June arrival EQ physical trades concluded above $20/mt. Forward B/L cargoes were tight and hard to find, with a small volume of registered B/L for late June arrival heard offered at $40/mt
Jun 11, 2026 13:58COSMO Chemical has signed a contract with EcoPro EM to supply cobalt sulfate, a raw material for secondary battery cathode materials. According to COSMO Chemical’s disclosure on June 9, the contract is worth KRW 14,065,975,248, equivalent to 2.12% of the company’s 2025 revenue. The contract period runs through December 31.
Jun 11, 2026 10:03SMM June 11 news: Metal market: Overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.79%. SHFE aluminum edged up 0.02%, while SHFE lead and SHFE tin fell slightly. SHFE zinc fell 1.98%. SHFE nickel fell 0.72%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.73%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore rose 0.07%, hot-rolled coil edged up, stainless steel rose 0.17%, and rebar rose 0.19%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 0.44%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 2.34%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals fell across the board. LME copper fell 0.81%. LME aluminum fell 1.09%, and LME lead fell 0.93%. LME zinc fell 2.19%. LME tin fell 0.34%. LME nickel fell 1.47%. Overnight, precious metals : Overnight, COMEX gold fell 4.49%, and COMEX silver fell 2.67%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 3.37%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 1.08%. Citibank expects that if the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues into this summer, global gold purchasing demand may shrink further, and gold prices may fall to $3,500 per ounce by September. Currently, Citibank has lowered its three-month gold price target from $4,300 per ounce to $4,000 per ounce. CITIC Securities pointed out that the US CPI for May was broadly in line with expectations, with high oil prices continuing to push up the overall inflation rate, while core inflation was mild. CITIC Securities believes the risk of a second round of US inflation is low, and the overall CPI YoY may have peaked for this cycle. It is expected to gradually decline slowly until September, then rebound slightly, before pulling back rapidly in March next year. The US Fed is expected to keep its target rate unchanged this year, and the interest rate hike expectations priced in the derivatives market have room to be revised downwards. The key focus of next week's Fed meeting will be the new Chair, Mr. Walsh's, remarks on the current inflation situation and interest rate levels. For US Treasuries, trading opportunities are more suitable than allocation opportunities now, and short-term bonds are better than long-term bonds. The US dollar index finds support, and gold prices may need to wait for accommodative expectations to restart before breaking out of their predicament. As of 7:19 AM on June 11, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Zheng Zhajie: Fully implement the "AI+" initiative and deeply address "involution-style" competition] On June 10, Zheng Zhajie, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), chaired an expert symposium on the economic situation, exchanging views with Cai Fang, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Zhang Li, President of the CCID Research Institute, and chief economists from some domestic and international securities firms, including BOC International. The discussion focused on analyzing and assessing the current economic situation, continuously expanding domestic demand, promoting high-level sci-tech self-reliance and strength and autonomous control of the industry chain, and stabilizing employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations. The attending experts' views, opinions, and suggestions were heard. Zheng Zhajie stated that the NDRC would earnestly implement the decisions and plans of the Party Central Committee and the State Council by making best use of its macro policies and leveraging the integrated effects of existing and incremental policies; strengthening the planning and construction of water networks, new-type power grids, computing power networks, new-generation communication networks, urban underground pipeline networks, and logistics networks to promote a close integration of investment in objects and investment in people, and effectively implementing the consumer goods trade-in policy; accelerating the construction of a modern industrial system and fully implementing the "AI+" initiative; continuously strengthening reform and innovation to deeply advance the construction of a unified national market and deeply address "involution-style" competition; enhancing energy and resource security levels and implementing a comprehensive conservation strategy; effectively ensuring the basic wellbeing of the people and making every effort to promote employment for key groups; at the same time, promptly researching and reserving a batch of targeted and highly operational policy tools, ready to be introduced and implemented as needed, to continuously consolidate the foundation for sustained and stable economic improvement. It is hoped that the experts would provide more suggestions to contribute their wisdom and strength to promoting high-quality development. [Ministry of Commerce and seven other units issue "Several Measures to Promote the Integrated Development of Railways and Tourism and Expand Service Consumption"] It is proposed to strengthen the coordination and alignment of railway and tourism planning. Planning guidance should be enhanced. Compiling railway-related plans should encompass the developmental needs of the tourism industry, site planning and layout must be effectively executed, and the accessibility and convenience of tourism resources should be elevated. The compilation of tourism-related plans should coordinate the layout and development of cultural tourism resources and railway resources, promoting the integrated and mutually reinforcing development of railways and tourism. [NRDC Price Cost and Certification Center Conducts Survey at SPIC] On June 3, Cheng Gang, Deputy Director of the Price Cost and Certification Center of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), led a team to conduct a survey at State Power Investment Corporation Limited (SPIC). The two sides exchanged views on the operation of wind power and PV projects, as well as the development of the hydrogen-based energy industry. (NDRC Price Cost and Certification Center) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.09%, closing at 100.04. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.2% YoY in May, the highest level since early 2023 and in line with market expectations. This marked the first time in three years that CPI inflation breached the 4% mark. The main factor driving the overall inflation higher was the rise in energy prices triggered by the Iran war. The 0.5% MoM rise matched expectations and was slightly lower than the previous 0.6%. "New Fed wire" Nick Timiraos' analysis pointed out that on a three-month annualized basis, the overall CPI increase in May was as high as 8.2% ; the overall CPI rose 0.47% MoM, with an annualized rate of approximately 5.8%, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, a three-year high. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY in May , matching expectations and edging up from the previous 2.8%; the MoM increase was 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 0.3% and a significant slowdown from the previous 0.4%. Core inflation was mild, but US real wages have already seen their first YoY negative growth since April 2023, worsening the situation for consumers. Furthermore, multiple Wall Street institutions believe that while this CPI data reinforces the "higher for longer" logic, it is not enough to trigger an interest rate hike. Market bets on the Fed resuming rate hikes have risen, but mainstream institutions still tend to believe the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months. (Wall Street Insights) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 98.4%, with a 1.6% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. The probability for the Fed to keep rates unchanged through July is 89.1%, with a 9.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike and a 1.5% chance of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Other currencies: The Bank of Japan (BOJ) stated on Wednesday that BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has been hospitalized and is expected to remain in hospital for about two weeks, therefore he will miss the monetary policy meeting on June 15-16 but is expected to attend the meeting on July 30-31. BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will chair the June 15-16 monetary policy meeting, and Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida will hold a press conference after the June meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today's releases include the Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate up to June 11, the Eurozone ECB Main Refinancing Rate up to June 11, the US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 6, and the US May PPI YoY and MoM rates. Also, focus on: the Ministry of Commerce holds its second routine press conference of June; the ECB announces its interest rate decision; ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with US crude up 4.14% and Brent crude up 3.88%. The Iran situation escalated abruptly, causing crude oil prices to surge. Additionally, a sharp decline in Cushing crude oil inventories and significant withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) once fueled an acceleration in the rise of oil prices. Trump subsequently stated on social media that over 100 million barrels of crude oil are currently transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which slightly capped the gains. (Wall Street Insights) The US Department of Energy (DOE) stated on Wednesday local time that the US is seeking to lend up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to energy companies to help lower fuel prices. This plan is part of the previous agreement to release 172 million barrels from the SPR. To date, the US has lent approximately 133 million barrels of crude oil under this agreement. In March, after the US and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28, the US reached an agreement with about 30 member countries of the International Energy Agency to jointly release approximately 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to help stabilize the international oil market. Currently, the US SPR inventory stands at 349.2 million barrels, the lowest level since August 2023. Enterprises borrowing crude oil must return an equivalent amount of crude oil plus pay a premium of up to 24% in extra crude oil. (Jin10 Data APP)
Jun 11, 2026 08:31Operating rate data showed a continued pullback, with significant polarization among enterprises. Data indicates that the comprehensive operating rate for copper billet enterprises in May stood at 49.27%, down 2.91 percentage points MoM and down 0.65 percentage points YoY.
Jun 9, 2026 15:12Developing local processing capacity is not simply a matter of building another plant next to a mine. It requires a country to simultaneously possess reliable energy supply, logistics infrastructure, chemical-industry capabilities, engineering expertise, customer qualification systems, access to financing, policy continuity and transparent pricing mechanisms. Resources can attract investment, but they cannot guarantee project success.
Jun 8, 2026 19:08Philippine ore quotes flat MoM, market awaits new pricing window This week, nickel ore prices in the Philippine market were basically stable compared to last week. CIF China quotes: Ni 1.3% at $49-52/wmt, 1.4% at $57-60, and 1.5% at $65-67; quotes for shipment to Indonesia were 1.3% at around $48-50 and 1.4% at around $56-58. No obvious loosening or upward adjustment was seen across grades for either CIF China or CIF Indonesia quotes, with miners tending towards conservative quotation intentions. Supply side, Philippine shipments were relatively ample overall this week, with no noticeable tightening in market cargo supply. Mines maintained normal loading pace, and no major weather disruptions interfered with the supply chain. Market participants generally expect new rounds of price announcements in the coming weeks, and the near-term ore price direction awaits clearer signals from these pricing markers before further assessment. Demand side, large smelters in China and Indonesia jointly pushed for lower prices, leveraging ample inventory. Shipping volumes to Indonesia were somewhat lower than last month, with buyers clearly dominating price negotiations. As of June 5, nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports reached 5.36 million mt, up 110,000 mt MoM, equivalent to approximately 42,100 mt Ni in metal content; Indonesian smelter inventory continued to accumulate simultaneously. Rising inventory levels at both locations indicate that the demand side is unlikely to provide effective support in the near term. Divergence between sellers and buyers was significant, and the price center edged lower amid a tug-of-war between cost support and weak demand, with overall market sentiment subdued. Continued pushback on raw material prices by smelters caused the price center for nickel ore CIF to shift further downwards, providing extremely weak support for Philippine ore FOB prices. Indonesian nickel ore market: Indonesian ore prices under downward pressure, persistently low grades constrain supply quality This week, Indonesian nickel ore market prices came under downward pressure overall, with the official reference price recording a slight correction, as cost tug-of-war across the industry chain persisted. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) officially released the HMA for the first half of June 2026: nickel price at $18,799.29/mt (down $50 from $18,849.29/mt in the second half of May 2026); cobalt price at $55,851.43/mt; iron ore price at $1.58/mt; chrome ore price at $6.37/mt. Based on SMM's internal calculation model, simulations for saprolite ore (Fe 20%, Cr 1%, Co 0.05%) show theoretical HPM prices for all grades slightly lower from the previous period. The theoretical HPM price for Ni 1.6% grade was approximately $70.75/wmt (down $0.08 MoM), and for Ni 1.2% grade was approximately $49.84/wmt (down $0.10 MoM). In terms of transaction prices, this week, delivery-to-factory prices for 1.6% grade saprolite ore were quoted at $73.8–78.8/wmt, down MoM, representing a premium range of +$3 to +$8/mt over the theoretical HPM price of $70.75/wmt. The premium narrowed significantly from earlier highs, reflecting the combined impact of sustained smelter pushback on prices and ample supply, and significantly squeezing miners' profit margins. This week, actual spot prices for 1.2% grade limonite ore were around $28–33/wmt, representing a discount of approximately $17–22 against the theoretical HPM calculated price of $49.84/wmt, with the discount depth remaining severe. Despite the slight adjustment in the HMA reference price, spot limonite ore prices failed to follow at all, heavily constrained by low downstream HPAL capacity utilization rates and tight sulphuric acid supply, with a serious disconnect between the two. Supply side, domestic ore supply in Indonesia improved this week, with overall supply relatively loose. However, ore grades remained persistently low, with mainstream circulated grades in the market around 1.45%–1.50% Ni range. High-grade saprolite ore (≥1.6%) remained a scarce resource, and some smelters faced difficulties supplementing high-grade ore sources, compelling increased blending operations with lower grades. According to the latest BMKG maritime meteorological data, weather conditions in the Morowali waters were good this week, with wave heights of 0.4–0.5 meters (low waves) and stable winds, leaving vessel operations unaffected; weather turned somewhat adverse in the East Halmahera waters, experiencing light rain, northeast winds at 9–10 knots, and wave heights reaching 1.4–2.0 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG issuing a wave alert, requiring heightened attention to shipping operations; the Obi waters also experienced light rain, southeast winds at 13–14 knots, and wave heights of 1.3–1.6 meters (moderate waves), with BMKG also issuing a wave height alert, somewhat impacting ore shipment efficiency. Demand side, overall raw ore inventory at smelters remained at relatively sufficient levels. SMM data shows that in May, the nickel ore inventory coverage index for pyrometallurgy smelters was about 2 months, and the cycle inventory index for HPAL hydrometallurgy plants was about 1.7 months, leaving little appetite for near-term restocking and a clear inclination to push for lower ore prices. In the limonite ore market, the tight supply of sulphuric acid had yet to fundamentally improve, with pressure on MHP production persisting. Operating rates at some hydrometallurgy producers remained low, and purchasing prices for limonite ore came under pressure. Policy level, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs confirmed at a meeting yesterday that the DSI ferroalloy export takeover mechanism would formally enter a transition period starting June 1, 2026 (through August), with full implementation required by January 1, 2027, at the latest. The minister confirmed at the meeting the HS codes for ferroalloys included in the takeover scope. Given that nearly all Indonesian NPI exports are declared under HS code 7202.60.00, and this code has been confirmed as included within the DSI takeover scope, NPI is highly likely to be covered by the DSI export takeover. The complete official regulatory text has yet to be officially released, and final confirmation remains subject to official announcement. However, Chinese-invested smelters should begin assessing the potential impact of the transition period on export logistics and compliance costs. In addition, while reiterating its commitment to honoring existing valid long-term contract commercial credit, the government will strictly investigate contracts suspected of "low-price customs declarations." Relevant authorities will soon commence consultations with major industry associations to close loopholes causing tax revenue losses from low pricing. According to markets outside China, Harita Nickel's PT Trimegah Bangun Persada has taken the lead in submitting a ferronickel export report through the DSI "single window" system. CEO Roy Arman Arfandy stated that the export process has been operating normally since June 2, progressing relatively smoothly overall.
Jun 8, 2026 00:33