According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US non-farm payrolls increased significantly by 178,000 in March, far exceeding market expectations of 60,000 and reaching the highest level since December 2024. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in March also edged down to 4.3%, compared with market expectations for it to remain unchanged at 4.4%. In addition, non-farm payrolls for January and February were revised down by a combined 7,000. Data from CME FedWatch showed that the probability of the US Fed keeping policy unchanged within the year had exceeded 90%.

Next Monday, markets outside China will be closed for one day on April 6 for the Easter holiday, including the LME and other exchanges. Meanwhile, China will also be in the Qingming Festival holiday, with the SHFE and other exchanges likewise closed. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases include China’s March CPI YoY and the US March non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, while the US Fed will also release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. LME lead, geopolitical tensions outside China have repeatedly resurfaced and the situation remained relatively severe, with the impact on energy, shipping, and other areas continuing. China’s lead ingot import window had remained open for a long time, attracting overseas lead ingot inflows into the Chinese market and reducing spot lead circulation in Southeast Asia and other markets. Especially during periods of rising LME lead, LME Cash-3M contango further narrowed WoW to -$20.77/mt, which will support lead prices to hold up well. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,890-1,965/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot supply is expected to increase in April, but the consumption side is facing the traditional off-season. Coupled with the Qingming Festival holiday, when downstream enterprises will be on holiday, the risk of post-holiday lead ingot inventory buildup will rise, which will weigh on the upward momentum of lead prices. In addition, delivery of the SHFE lead 2604 contract will come onto the agenda after the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in plant warehouse lead ingot inventory into visible inventory, with caution against lead prices retreating after rapid rise. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,500-16,900 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,350-16,700 yuan/mt. During the Qingming Festival holiday, many downstream enterprises plan to take time off, leading to a temporary absence of lead consumption. Together with the approaching traditional off-season, downstream enterprises will maintain purchase as needed. On the supply side, production at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises will rise steadily, while imported lead continues to flow into China, making it possible for spot discounts for lead to widen.

The gold price set a technical signal last week while providing fresh fuel for the debate over its future direction.

This week, the nickel market generally showed a pattern of "falling first and then rebounding, moving sideways within a range," with an intense tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was around 133,000-138,000 yuan/mt, down 1.82% on a weekly basis, while the LME nickel 3M contract also fluctuated lower this week, down 0.67%. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 136,600 yuan/mt this week, down 3,300 yuan/mt WoW. Jinchuan nickel premiums weakened sharply, falling all the way from 5,000 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to 3,650 yuan/mt on Friday, with the weekly average at about 3,900 yuan/mt. Against the backdrop of high inventory in China, imported cargoes still faced circulation pressure, suppliers showed stronger willingness to sell, and premiums declined in tandem. Overall spot transactions were sluggish. With the Qingming Festival approaching and prices remaining high, downstream buyers showed insufficient purchasing enthusiasm, with rigid demand dominating. On the macro front, at the end of Q1 2026, US economic data showed stronger-than-expected resilience, undermining market confidence in a US Fed interest rate cut before June. This supported a stronger US dollar in the short term and put valuation pressure on commodities such as nickel. China's official manufacturing PMI for March came in at 50.5%, remaining in expansion territory for a second consecutive month, indicating signs of a manufacturing recovery. Repeated fluctuations in the Middle East situation have caused oil price fluctuations, driving swings in overall risk appetite across the commodities market, and nickel prices showed a relatively strong linkage to financial factors. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 92,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,800 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern of "strong support from the cost floor, weak actual demand, and policy-driven sentiment disruptions," making rangebound fluctuations more likely. The core fluctuation range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 130,000-138,000 yuan/mt.

At the start of this week, the market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation, oil prices, and US Fed expectations. As the Iran conflict continued to escalate, crude oil stayed elevated, the US dollar held up well, and copper prices were overall under pressure. Although the market briefly traded expectations that the US might contain further escalation, lifting risk appetite for a short time, Powell said the current policy stance remained appropriate to “wait and see,” and with the war’s disruption to inflation and growth not yet fading, macro sentiment quickly turned cautious again. Overall, the macro theme changed relatively little this week, with geopolitical risks still pushing up oil prices, heightening inflation concerns, and creating phased pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the copper market’s own drivers remained mixed between bullish and bearish factors. China’s manufacturing climate in March remained in expansion territory, providing some support to demand expectations. However, recent trading in the LME market still mostly reflected revisions to earlier shortage expectations. In reality, global visible inventory remained high, restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. Meanwhile, the US adjusted the tariff calculation rules for steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives this week. Although this did not change the 50 tariff framework on copper itself, the policy disruption still affected market sentiment and trade flows. Overall, the copper market remained in a pattern of macro pressure and high inventory, while marginal improvement in China’s demand and the logic of tightness on the mine side remained unchanged. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to see no significant change. If the Middle East situation does not materially ease, oil prices and the US dollar will still weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain. However, support will still persist on the fundamental side, and copper prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a range. LME copper is expected to fluctuate at $12,000-12,500/mt, and SHFE copper at 94,000-97,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, China’s inventory drawdown trend is expected to continue, and premiums are expected to keep rising. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

[Worsening Supply Concerns and Gradual Demand Recovery Stabilize the Center of Aluminum Prices with Geopolitical Premiums ]Overall, the market's core focus in the period ahead is on whether key aluminum smelters in the Middle East will further expand production cuts. If the cuts continue to materialize, they will provide strong upward momentum for global aluminum prices, coupled with support from expectations of a gradual release of demand during China’s peak season. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for an End to Geopolitical Conflict Cool, LME Zinc Stops Rising and Starts to Fall] Overnight, LME zinc stopped rising and started to fall, with support provided by the middle Bollinger Bands. As expectations for a swift end to the Middle East conflict cooled, base metals generally fell, while zinc was affected by a sharp increase in LME registered warrants......

Dalian iron ore was stronger in the morning session today, but pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 805 yuan/mt, down 1.29% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 3-7 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were moderately active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; as of now, spot market transactions were average. Fundamentals, inventory at the 10-port sample showed clear structural divergence this week. Among them, mainstream mid-grade ores such as PB fines and blended fines saw a notable inventory buildup, with PB fines surging 1.24 million WoW to nearly 9 million. In contrast, IOCJ fines, super special fines, and high-silicon Brazilian coarse ore bucked the trend and posted destocking. This divergence indicated that, against the backdrop of steel mill profits coming under pressure, the consumption side was accelerating toward extreme cost reduction. Steel mills generally adopted a barbell-style ore blending strategy of pairing high- and low-grade materials, significantly squeezing demand for mainstream mid-grade ore and putting further pressure on iron ore's upward momentum. On the macro front, driven by persistently high inflation outside China and fading expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, tighter US dollar liquidity further weighed on bullish sentiment in commodities. Combined with pressure from elevated inventory on the micro side and weak demand for mid-grade ore, iron ore prices lacked drivers for an upward breakout in the short term and are expected to remain in the doldrums within a narrow range.

[Price Review] At the beginning of the week, silver prices fluctuated upward amid Trump-related remarks and the possibility of easing conflict. However, on Thursday (April 2), after Trump delivered a speech claiming a "swift, decisive, and overwhelming victory" in the war against Iran, precious metal prices plunged sharply. The chaotic signals and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran negotiation situation themselves became a "bearish factor" for precious metal prices. In the short term, heated fund flows and weakening investment demand caused gold and silver to shift from "safe-haven inflation-resistant assets" into "liquidity tools," and the bearish sentiment in precious metals continued. As for the gold/silver ratio, as of April 1, the LBMA gold/silver ratio stood at 63, and is expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend in the short term. [Key Data] Bullish: The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March in the US was 53.3, below both expectations and the previous reading Bearish: US ADP employment in March was 62,000, below both expectations and the previous reading US retail sales m/m in February rose 0.6, above both expectations and the previous reading The reported US ISM manufacturing PMI for March was 52.7, above the previous reading but below expectations Data and macro releases to watch next week include: April 3 (Friday): The US is set to release seasonally adjusted nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate for March. The market generally expects March payroll additions to rebound to 55,000. Bloomberg forecasts that, driven by a rebound in jobs after the end of the strike, nonfarm payrolls in March will increase by 80,000, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4. April 9 (Wednesday): US February PCE Price Index April 10 (Thursday): US March CPI data On the Middle East conflict timeline, US President Trump postponed the airstrike on Iranian energy facilities to 20:00 ET on April 6. Trump said the US would "soon" withdraw from the conflict with Iran, but if the situation changes after the withdrawal, it may still re-engage. Regarding the Strait of Hormuz, on April 1, Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, posted a message addressing US President Trump, saying that the Strait of Hormuz would definitely reopen, but not to the US. [Price Forecast] In the short term, the direction of the US-Iran conflict and cooling expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts are the main factors affecting silver prices. The lasting impact of persistently high oil prices has kept precious metal prices under pressure. On industrial demand, after the Middle East conflict pushed up energy costs, expectations for global manufacturing activity may be reassessed, and silver has been hit by the dual blow of "safe-haven failure + collapsing demand narrative." On China fundamentals side, end-user enterprises showed weak willingness to stock up raw materials in April. On the one hand, declining PV end-user production schedules led to weaker expectations for new silver nitrate orders. On the other hand, other end-users showed strong caution and reluctance to buy on falling prices, aggressively bargaining down premiums for procurement. As the SHFE April delivery approaches, suppliers generally said that amid difficult spot silver ingot transactions, they may mainly monetize through delivery. Social inventory of silver ingots may see a slight accumulation, and premiums are still expected to have room to pull back further. Next week, the basic situation of silver prices remaining in the doldrums is expected to be difficult to improve, but close attention should be paid to disruptions to market sentiment from changes in geopolitical conflict and adjustments in fund flows.

[SHFE Aluminum Night Session Closed Higher, with Geopolitics and Fundamentals Jointly Supporting Aluminum Prices] Overall, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East remained the core factor affecting the global aluminum market. A series of production cuts and damage incidents at Middle Eastern aluminum plants is expected to provide strong upward momentum for aluminum prices in and outside China, together with support from expectations of the gradual release of peak-season demand in China. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high-level consolidation pattern.