[Overnight, LME Aluminum and SHFE Aluminum Edged Up Slightly, but Aluminum Prices Faced Short-Term Pressure at High Levels] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening fund liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum remained insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle had yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly weighing on upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

According to a US official and people familiar with the matter, after three weeks of fighting in Iran so far, the Trump administration has begun preliminary consultations on arrangements for the next phase of action and possible peace talks with Iran. However, US officials said the fighting is expected to continue for another two to three weeks. In addition, the official said that any ceasefire agreement must meet the following conditions: the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a resolution to the issue of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the conclusion of a long-term agreement on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and its support for proxy armed groups in the region.

This week, the rare earth market outside China showed a divergent pattern of “cerium up, the rest down.” Driven by price increases in China and rising ocean freight rates, cerium oxide FOB and CIF prices rose by $55/mt and $60/mt, respectively, while FOB offers for mainstream magnetic material raw materials such as praseodymium, neodymium, dysprosium, and terbium were generally lowered by $3-19.5/kg due to lower prices in China and tight supply caused by export controls. Although limited trading volumes supported premiums in markets outside China, expectations of an industrial slowdown in Europe triggered by the Middle East situation may suppress subsequent demand. On industry developments, Lynas’ Malaysia plant started samarium oxide production ahead of schedule, consolidating its position as the only commercial heavy rare earth separator outside China and advancing its 2030 strategy. In Australia, Terrain discovered high-grade magnetic rare earth ore intervals during drilling at its Western Australia project, highlighting significant resource potential.

Renascor Resources Drilling at Bulloo Creek intersected cobalt and copper mineralisation associated with magnetic anomalies, delivering several intervals with economically promising grades. The results indicate a south-dipping cobalt ± copper mineralised horizon, with mineralisation confirmed in both eastern and western anomalies, suggesting a broader mineralised trend. At the Marree Project, negotiations on a Native Title agreement have progressed, which is expected to facilitate exploration of uranium as well as copper-gold targets. Uranium targeting work has also commenced at the Wooltana Project, while rare earth exploration at the Tumby Bay prospect on Eyre Peninsula is advancing, with plans to expand soil geochemistry programs to further define the scale and extent of mineralisation.

UK rare earth exploration company Harena Rare Earths signed an exclusivity agreement to evaluate the acquisition of Paradigm Critical Minerals’ heavy rare earth and uranium assets in California. The asset is located in San Bernardino County, about 100 miles from Mountain Pass mine, MP Materials’ rare earth mine, the only producing rare earth mine in North America. Historical drilling showed significant potential for the project, with surface exploration identifying a light-to-heavy rare earth ratio of about 50:50 and grab samples with TREO grades of up to around 2%. Uranium grades reached 10 times those of currently operating projects worldwide. Harena will conduct due diligence to advance the transaction, and the project will complement its ionic clay rare earth project in Madagascar.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,987.5/mt, hovering around the daily moving average during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,994.5/mt before weakening, touching a low of $1,972/mt before the close, and finally closed at $1,979/mt after a slight rebound, down $16.5/mt, a decrease of 0.83%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,800 yuan/mt, fell to a low of 16,740 yuan/mt after opening, then rebounded to a high of 16,820 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,800 yuan/mt after brief consolidation, forming a doji, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous settlement price, an increase of 0.27%. Data released by the State Administration for Market Regulation showed that 25.745 million new business entities were established nationwide in 2025, with rapid growth in enterprises related to emerging industries and future industries, indicating strong innovation momentum. Among them, frontier fields such as humanoid robots, civil aviation, and generative artificial intelligence led the gains. The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits increased less than expected, indicating that layoffs remained at a low level. The third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran concluded, with the Iranian foreign minister stating that the two sides were close to reaching a consensus in some areas, and technical negotiations would be held in Vienna next Monday. The foreign minister of Oman, the mediating party, described the talks as having made significant progress. Media reports indicated that differences between the two sides remained significant, with the US insisting that Iran completely dismantle its nuclear facilities and transfer all enriched uranium out of the country; Iran proposed stopping nuclear activities for a limited number of years, after which enrichment activities would resume within a regulated regional framework. Spot fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong and Honglu lead was quoted at discounts of 50 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. SHFE lead continued to hold up well. Some suppliers completed month-end inventory clearance, with individual large discount quotations narrowing, while other suppliers followed the market in shipments, mainly with cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters' production sites. Few secondary lead smelters had resumed production, with some having delayed plans; secondary refined lead quotations were scarce, and prices were firm, with mainstream producing areas offering at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises resumed work gradually, but most still had certain inventory, resulting in low enthusiasm; spot order market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: On February 26, LME lead inventory was 286,300 mt, flat from the previous trading day. As of February 26, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM continued to accumulate. Today's lead price forecast: This week, spot order procurement demand from downstream enterprises remained primarily for small, rigid needs. Many downstream enterprises were still consuming lead ingots stockpiled before the holiday after resuming work, and post-holiday lead ingot consumption appeared slightly weak. On the refined lead supply side, large-scale primary lead smelters in Henan maintained stable supply during the holiday. Smelter inventories accumulated significantly after the holiday, while the pace of production resumptions for secondary lead smelting enterprises that halted during the Chinese New Year was noticeably delayed compared to previous years. Under the current scrap battery and lead price conditions, secondary lead enterprises remained in a loss-making state upon resuming work, and concentrated production resumptions are expected to be delayed until March. This week, the supply and demand in the spot refined lead market have not fully recovered. Lead prices have moderate support at lower levels but struggle to rise due to pressure from increasing domestic inventory. In the short term, lead prices are expected to continue moving sideways.

[Elevra and Mangrove Lithium Sign Non-Binding MOU for Spodumene Concentrates Offtake] North American lithium producer Elevra Lithium Limited ("Elevra") is pleased to announce the signing of a non-binding memorandum of understanding to supply spodumene concentrates produced by NAL to Mangrove Lithium ("Mangrove"). Elevra and Mangrove may enter into a binding definitive agreement in the future, subject to Mangrove reaching a final investment decision on the construction of its lithium conversion facility by June 2027 and the parties agreeing on the final terms of the agreement. Under the terms of the non-binding MOU, Elevra and Mangrove intend to negotiate a definitive agreement whereby Elevra would supply Mangrove with up to 144,000 mt of spodumene concentrates annually at market-related prices, with floor and ceiling prices, ensuring NAL generates positive cash flow at any stage of the pricing cycle. The proposed supply has an initial term of five years, commencing in 2028, and is expected to ramp up to the full annual volume of 144,000 mt by 2030, representing approximately 46% of projected sales. Mangrove plans to process the spodumene concentrates into battery-grade lithium hydroxide in Eastern Canada to support the establishment of a resilient domestic battery supply chain in Canada. Mangrove's designed annual capacity is 20,000 mt of battery-grade lithium, equivalent to the demand for 500,000 EVs. Source: https://news.smm.cn/ [Albemarle Announces Idling of Kemerton Lithium Hydroxide Processing Plant on February 11 Local Time] Albemarle decided to immediately idle and place into a state of care and maintenance the operational Train 1 production line at its Kemerton plant in Western Australia. This represents a further contraction following the idling of Train 2 in 2024 and the halting of the Train 3 and 4 expansion projects. Although lithium prices have recovered recently, the levels are not enough to support the cost pressures associated with hard-rock lithium conversion operations in the West. This move aims to improve financial flexibility and preserve future options. It is expected to have an accretive effect on adjusted EBITDA starting from Q2 2026, without affecting the sales target for the year, as customer demand will be met through other channels. Albemarle emphasized that its upstream lithium mine interests and exploration rights in Australia, such as Greenbushes and Wodgina, remain unaffected and are still a strategic core. Source: https://www.albemarle.com [Ultra-Thin, Compact Lithium-Ion Rechargeable Battery "EnerCera" Supports Tohoku University's Tsunami Balloon Project Demonstration Experiment] NGK Insulators, Ltd. (hereinafter "NGK") announced that it supported the demonstration experiment for Tohoku University's tsunami balloon project by manufacturing and supplying its ultra-thin, compact lithium-ion rechargeable battery, EnerCera®. The project aims to establish a new disaster prevention system that automatically deploys balloon-type evacuation markers during tsunamis, visually indicating the locations of tsunami evacuation facilities, such as evacuation towers and evacuation buildings, from the air. EnerCera powers the light sources installed in the balloons, making the evacuation sites clearly visible at night or under poor visibility conditions. In the demonstration experiment, EnerCera was used as the power source for the balloon-type evacuation marker lighting unit, which activated immediately after a tsunami. The experiment verified whether sufficient brightness was achieved when the balloons were deployed and whether the system met practical usage requirements. EnerCera combines a thin and lightweight design with high output and excellent environmental resistance, enabling stable operation in outdoor environments. By enabling wireless lighting control, the system is expected to enhance the visibility of tsunami evacuation facilities at night and help prevent evacuation delays. The Tsunami Balloon Project is an initiative led by a technical team from Tohoku University, aiming to develop a system that automatically releases balloons into the air upon receiving disaster information, such as tsunami warnings and emergency earthquake alerts, issued via the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System "Michibiki". In the demonstration experiment, a series of operational tests were conducted: upon receiving a tsunami warning (test signal), gas was rapidly injected into the balloon, inflating it to a diameter of approximately 2 meters and raising it to a height of about 40 meters within approximately 2 to 3 minutes. The balloon is marked with a person pictogram, allowing people to identify the evacuation facility simply by looking up at the sky. To improve nighttime visibility, EnerCera was integrated as the light source. Source: https://www.mynewsdesk.com/ ["Sacrifice Zone" or a Clean Energy Future? EU Court Considers Portuguese Lithium Mine Project] The risks in this case escalated further after EU officials refused in November to revoke the "strategic" status of the Barroso mine. A long-standing controversy over lithium mining in northern Portugal has reached the European Union's highest court. Environmental and community organizations have filed a lawsuit with the European Court of Justice against the European Commission's decision to grant the Barroso lithium project "strategic" status. The residents' association "United Defense Association of the Barroso Valley" and the environmental law organization ClientEarth raised objections on Thursday, February 5, arguing that the Commission failed to reassess the project after new evidence emerged regarding environmental, social, and safety risks. The core dispute in this case revolves around the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act of 2024. Projects designated as "strategic" gain fast-track access to permitting processes, financing channels, and the supply of raw materials for green products such as EVs and batteries. Source: https://www.euronews.com/ [How Argentina's Lithium and Uranium Boom Could Undermine Its Energy Sovereignty] Argentina possesses abundant critical natural resources, the demand for which is increasingly growing as the global energy transition continues to accelerate. However, although Argentina's potential geopolitical advantages have opened new avenues for economic growth, as world superpowers fiercely compete for the country's lithium and uranium resources, this may also entail significant trade-offs in energy sovereignty. The Argentine economy has finally seen a rebound after decades of painful recession. This shift is largely attributed to the radical austerity policies implemented by the right-wing President Javier Milei, elected in 2023. While Milei's aggressive financial reforms have had some positive effects on the economy, his approach has been highly controversial both domestically and internationally. Part of Milei's strategy involves forming a close alliance with the Trump administration. As part of this shift, he has shown a new willingness to cooperate with the US and other international partners in new nuclear energy plans. Milei declared his country an "unconditional ally of the US," with Argentina becoming the first partner country to sign the Trump administration's "Foundational Infrastructure for Responsible Use of Small Modular Reactor Technologies" initiative. Source: https://oilprice.com/

[Energy Fuels Successfully Produces First Kilogram of 99.9% Pure Dysprosium Oxide at White Mesa Mill in Utah] Energy Fuels Inc., a leading US producer of uranium, rare earths, and critical minerals, is pleased to announce that it has successfully produced the first kilogram of dysprosium oxide (Dy) with a purity of 99.9%, far exceeding the commercial standard of 99.5%, at its White Mesa Mill in Utah. The company expects to maintain a production rate of two kilograms of dysprosium oxide per week and emphasizes that it is the first US enterprise to both produce high-purity dysprosium oxide and publicly disclose actual production volumes and purity levels. These oxides are sourced from monazite mined in Florida and Georgia, USA, demonstrating the potential feasibility for Energy Fuels to be completely independent of China's rare earth oxide supply chain. Additionally, Energy Fuels plans to further enhance the capacity of this facility in the future by installing large-scale production lines for dysprosium, terbium, and other "heavy" rare earth oxides. This move has attracted significant interest from several magnet manufacturers and OEMs, who are eager to obtain these samples to expedite their validation processes.

Since Q2, the issuance of local government bonds has significantly accelerated. A review of the Special Bond Information Network by reporters revealed that as of June 12, local government bond issuance this year had exceeded 4 trillion yuan, with newly added special bonds accounting for nearly 40%. Experts stated that fiscal policy will remain one of the key supports for economic resilience in Q2, and the issuance of local government bonds is expected to further increase, driving steady growth in infrastructure investment throughout the year. This year, there has been a notable increase in the issuance scale of new bonds allocated to major projects through local government bonds, primarily in the form of newly added special bonds. Data shows that among the 4,483.4 billion yuan of local government bonds issued so far, 1,645.7 billion yuan are newly added local government bonds, and 359.6 billion yuan are newly added general bonds.

According to a report from the BNAmericas website, Argentine President Milei and French President Macron have agreed to sign a strategic alliance agreement, under which both sides will collaborate to promote financing and investment in critical minerals such as copper and lithium, while also accelerating Argentina's nuclear energy program. On Monday, the two leaders discussed the agreement during their participation in the United Nations Ocean Conference in Nice, France, which includes scientific cooperation in the delineation of mineral resources. As part of France's 2030 investment plan, the Macron government intends to invest 500 million euros ($571 million) to enhance industrial resilience against disruptions in the metal supply chain. Although France needs to import critical minerals for its own energy transition, Argentina can also learn from France's experience in nuclear energy. Seventy percent of France's electricity consumption comes from nuclear power, but the country plans to reduce this proportion to 50%. Currently, at least six nuclear reactors are planned to be built in the country. According to data from the World Nuclear Association, France already has approximately 60 reactors with a total installed capacity of 63 gigawatts. In contrast, Argentina has only three nuclear reactors, accounting for just 5% of its electricity production. However, under Milei's nuclear energy plan, Argentina will expand its nuclear power capacity to meet nationwide electricity demand and reduce power outages. The nuclear energy plan also includes advancing uranium mining and positioning Argentina as a global leader in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. A few days ago, Demián Reidel, the Chairman of Milei's Advisory Council and the President of Argentina's National Nuclear Commission, met with leaders of the French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) to discuss in detail how to implement the cooperation plan.