[SMM PGM Express] Osmium is attracting growing attention in the luxury goods and alternative investment markets, supported by its exceptional rarity (most rare preciuos metal on earth) and increasing use in high-end jewellery. Industry sources indicate that crystalline osmium prices have increased by nearly 500% over the past eight years, reflecting limited supply and expanding demand from collectors and luxury brands. Global osmium output remains extremely limited, as the metal is recovered only as a by-product of platinum group metal mining. Industry estimates suggest that approximately 22 tonnes of recoverable osmium remain available, underscoring its scarcity and contributing to a relatively small global market. Most refined crystalline osmium is currently held by long-term investors, limiting the volume available for trade. Beyond its rarity, crystalline osmium is gaining recognition for its unique physical properties, including its high density, natural brilliance and traceable certification system, making it increasingly attractive as both a luxury material and a tangible asset. As interest expands beyond Europe into markets such as China and the United States, market participants will continue to monitor supply availability, investor demand and adoption by the luxury jewellery sector as key drivers of future price trends.

July 15, 2026 Anyone seeking to understand why rising oil prices triggered by tensions in the Gulf can actually weigh on gold prices—despite intuition suggesting the opposite—must begin with the petrodollar system. It is the invisible foundation of the global financial architecture and explains why the seemingly unrelated markets for oil, gold, and U.S. Treasury bonds are, in reality, deeply interconnected. The story begins in 1974. Following the first oil shock, the U.S. government, under Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, reached a landmark agreement with Saudi Arabia. Under the arrangement, the Kingdom agreed to price its oil exclusively in U.S. dollars and reinvest its oil revenues into U.S. Treasury securities. In return, Saudi Arabia received military protection and security guarantees from the United States. The Petrodollar: The Invisible Foundation of the Financial System The other OPEC members soon adopted the same model. The consequences were revolutionary—and highly advantageous for the United States. Every country wishing to purchase oil first had to acquire U.S. dollars, creating a structural and permanent global demand for the greenback. The mechanism functions as a circular flow: oil revenues earned by the Gulf states are subsequently invested in U.S. Treasuries, supporting demand for American government debt, keeping Treasury yields lower, and strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger dollar, in turn, makes oil more expensive for the rest of the world, reinforcing the dollar's dominant position. This system explains why the United States has been able to finance growing budget deficits at comparatively low interest rates for decades. Behind the scenes, the petrodollar mechanism created an artificial and continuous demand for U.S. government bonds. Gold: The Counterpart Without Counterparty Risk Gold occupies a unique position within this system. Unlike a U.S. Treasury bond, gold is no one's liability. A government bond represents a promise by a sovereign borrower. A currency represents a promise by a central bank. Gold, however, is no promise at all—it is a tangible asset without counterparty risk. Veteran speculator and Casey Research founder Doug Casey summarized this concept succinctly when he said that gold is not a speculative investment but rather a form of savings—and indeed the only form of savings that does not simultaneously expose the owner to another party's risk. For that reason, the price of gold is fundamentally influenced by many of the same variables that drive the bond market: inflation, real interest rates, and confidence in the monetary system. Rising real yields—that is, Treasury yields adjusted for inflation—make non-yielding gold relatively less attractive. Conversely, when real yields decline or inflation is perceived as persistent, gold systematically becomes more attractive relative to bonds. In February 2026, U.S. investment bank J.P. Morgan described this relationship as asymmetric, noting that gold tends to rise more when interest rates fall than it declines when rates rise. This reflects the structural shift that has emerged in recent years as central banks have become consistent net buyers of gold. How Oil Prices Influence Gold: A Paradox At first glance, the relationship between oil and gold appears paradoxical. When oil prices rise as a result of geopolitical tensions, this initially represents an inflationary signal, which one would normally interpret as bullish for gold. Yet market reactions often move in the opposite direction. Rising oil prices push inflation expectations higher, prompting central banks to adopt a more restrictive monetary stance—or at least reducing expectations for future interest rate cuts. Higher interest rates strengthen the U.S. dollar, making gold more expensive for international buyers. At the same time, more U.S. dollars flow to oil-exporting countries and are subsequently recycled into U.S. Treasury securities through the petrodollar system. The short-term result is therefore often an inverse correlation: higher oil prices support the U.S. dollar while weighing on gold. The long-term effect, however, is exactly the opposite. Persistently higher energy costs generate structural inflation. They place increasing pressure on government finances and gradually erode confidence in fiat currencies, thereby strengthening gold's role as a neutral store of value. This interaction between short-term market correlations and long-term economic causality lies at the heart of the triangle connecting oil, gold, and bonds. The Interest Expense Dilemma as the Transmission Mechanism Another increasingly important transmission mechanism is the interest burden carried by the U.S. federal government. Every time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, refinancing costs on America's debt increase. With total federal debt now exceeding US$38 trillion , every one-percentage-point increase in interest rates adds several hundred billion dollars to annual interest expenses. Higher oil prices contribute to tighter monetary policy and therefore higher interest rates. At the same time, they also increase government financing costs. As deficits continue to grow, the Treasury must issue even more bonds, which in turn further increases total interest expenses—even if investor demand remains sufficient. Should demand for U.S. Treasuries weaken, yields would have to rise further to attract buyers. While this may temporarily pressure gold by increasing real interest rates, it simultaneously worsens the long-term fiscal outlook, ultimately strengthening gold's appeal. The triangle formed by oil, gold, and U.S. Treasuries is therefore not an abstract theoretical model but the operational reality of today's global financial system. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/oil-prices-gold-and-u-s-treasuries-why-these-three-markets-are-inseparably-linked

The Southeast Asian secondary aluminum market remained weak this week, with aluminum scrap and ADC12 prices under pressure due to sluggish downstream demand. Lower overseas prices improved China's import window, although spot trading remained limited. Malaysia's Talon prices edged higher on tighter supply, while Thailand's UBC prices weakened. SMM expects the market to remain range-bound, with attention focused on LME aluminum prices, import margins, scrap policies, and demand recovery.

According to industry sources on July 15, Google and U.S. renewable energy independent power producer Cypress Creek Energy (CCE) announced on July 14 local time that they will develop the Steel River Energy Center project in the United States. The two companies plan to build an initial 2 GWh ESS system by 2029 and later expand capacity to 2.9 GWh. LG Energy Solution’s batteries will be used for the project, with the order value reportedly estimated at several hundred billion KRW. LG Energy Solution will supply its North America-produced LFP-based ESS product, JF2 DC Link.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The most-traded SHFE tin contract consolidates amid weak trading and low inventory support, finding it difficult to move either up or down]

In Q2 2026, the solid‑state battery industry reached a critical policy and standards inflection point. China’s MIIT designated all‑solid‑state batteries as a key R&D priority, and the world’s first national standard for automotive solid‑state batteries (GB/T 43568‑2026) took effect on July 1.

SMM Nickel, July 13: Macro and market news: (1) On the 12th local time, US President Trump said the US had launched a "heavy strike" against Iran the previous night. There were conflicting statements about the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization of the Persian Gulf posted on social media on the 12th that the Strait of Hormuz was currently impassable. Trump, however, said, "As far as the United States is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz remains open." (2) Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting to hear a report on the progress of building a digital China and to study the cultivation of emerging pillar industries. Spot market: On July 13, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell by 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,150 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel ranged from -300 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract edged down in the morning session, closing at 128,030 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 0.02%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another turn, with the dollar and crude oil rising in tandem, weighing on metals. However, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it would no longer raise the national nickel ore mining production quota across the board, and any increase in quotas would be very limited, with a strict special approval channel set up only for local smelters facing severe raw material shortages. In the short term, nickel prices could rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract price expected to trade in a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

On the 12th local time, US President Trump said that the US had carried out "fierce strikes" on Iran the previous night. Regarding the navigability of the Strait of Hormuz, there are differing statements from various parties. Iran's Persian Gulf Straits Authority posted an announcement on social media on the 12th, saying that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable. Trump, however, said, "As far as the United States is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz remains open."

[SMM Rare Earth Flash] Northern Minerals is developing its A$600 million Browns Range heavy rare earth project in the East Kimberley region of Western Australia. The project is one of the few high-grade heavy rare earth deposits outside China, hosting mainly dysprosium and terbium. The company estimates that the project is expected to meet about 8% of global dysprosium and terbium demand once in production. Northern Minerals has secured up to $250 million (approximately A$350 million) in debt financing support from Export Finance Australia (EFA) and the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM). The company aims to make a final investment decision by September 2026, with first concentrates expected to be produced by the end of 2028 or early 2029.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia completed its first international aluminum exports in June 2026, shipping 31,494 tonnes to the United States and 3,569 tonnes to South Korea. The company targets 350,000 tonnes of aluminum sales in 2026, supported by production from its 500,000 tpa PT Kalimantan Aluminum Industry (KAI) smelter, with exports expected to account for around 30% of total sales while the remainder serves the domestic market.