[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: A Zinc Smelter in Peru Shut Down After a Fire; LME Zinc Logged Eight Consecutive Gains] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,558.5/mt. In early trading, LME zinc briefly moved lower to test a low below $3,542.5/mt, after which bears reduced open interest. LME zinc then rallied to a multi-year high, reaching above $3,633.5/mt. The center then pulled back slightly, and it finally closed higher at $3,587/mt, up $35/mt, a gain of 0.99%. Trading volume fell to 14,070 lots, and open interest decreased by 139 lots to 242,000 lots.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,004/mt, moved sideways during the Asian session with a low of $2,001.5/mt; LME lead fluctuated upward after entering the European session, reaching a high of $2,017/mt, and finally closed at $2,012/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,590 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,620 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward, hitting a low of 16,530 yuan/mt near the close, and finally settled at 16,535 yuan/mt, down 0.33%. On the macro front: India restricted duty-free gold imports; Ukraine reported the largest Russian airstrike since the conflict began; Israel and Lebanon held a new round of negotiations in the US. OPEC+ reportedly plans to continue increasing production, targeting the restoration of all production cuts by the end of September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent: the oil price curve is expected to decline within six months; Iran has exhausted its oil storage capacity and will be forced to halt production. China's Ministry of Commerce: China is willing to work with the US to continuously expand the cooperation list. Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China is willing to work with the US to translate the new positioning of China-US relations into actions moving in the same direction. The PBOC: a 300 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a 6-month tenor will be conducted on May 15. : Driven by the LME lead rally, SHFE lead rebounded relatively, and suppliers actively made shipments while lowering quoted premiums. Additionally, primary lead smelter supplies were ample, with mainstream production areas quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Secondary lead side, losses remained prominent, and smelters held prices firm while shipping, with secondary refined lead quoted at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Meanwhile, the lead-acid battery market remained in an off-season state, with limited just-in-time procurement from downstream enterprises. After lead prices rebounded, inquiry enthusiasm weakened, with buyers only maintaining just-in-time procurement, and spot market transactions turned sluggish. Inventory: On May 14, LME lead inventory decreased by 50 mt to 265,250 mt; SMM five-region lead ingot social inventory increased by approximately 6,100 mt WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Today is the delivery day. Suppliers continued to transfer lead ingots to delivery warehouses, and lead ingot social inventory continued to accumulate. Notably, the domestic market has recently underperformed the overseas market for lead prices. The lead ingot import window has entered a closed state this week. Meanwhile, the supply gap for high-grade lead ingots in Southeast Asia remained significant, with spot cargoes maintaining high premiums. In H2, the potential opening of the lead ingot export window and its impact on domestic lead price trends may be worth watching. Data source disclaimer: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine's finished steel products fell 15.8% m/m to 460,800 tonnes in April 2026. Steel output fell 25.3% m/m to 517,300 tonnes. Pig iron fell 16.1% m/m to 554,000 tonnes. Jan-Apr steel -7.4% y/y to 2.25 million tonnes, pig iron -0.3% to 2.36 million tonnes, rolled -9.1% to 1.8 million tonnes. April's decline was partly due to an unscheduled shutdown at Zaporizhstal. High electricity/gas prices and CBAM remain pressing issues. In 2025, commercial rolled steel rose 4.8% y/y to 6.52 million tonnes, pig iron +11.2% to 7.88 million tonnes, steel -2.2% to 7.41 million tonnes. GMK Center's Dec forecast: steel output of 7.2 million tonnes in 2026 (base case) or 6.3-6.6 million tonnes in a pessimistic scenario.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has launched an anti-dumping (AD) review investigation into seamless stainless steel pipes from Ukraine, following applications from major regional producers. Current AD duties, ranging from 4.32% to 18.96%, are scheduled to expire on September 6, 2026. However, internal data reveals a 11% decline in EAEU stainless pipe production and a 44% drop in margins between 2023 and 2025. Given these deteriorating economic indicators, the commission will determine whether to maintain the protective measures. The investigation covers seamless pipes with a diameter up to 426 mm, classified under various HS codes within the 7304 heading.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: U.S.-Iran Tensions Remained Elevated, LME Zinc Under Pressure] Last Friday, LME zinc opened at $3,439/mt. In the early session, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched $3,457/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, bears increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated downward throughout the session, hitting a low of $3,418/mt during the night session, ultimately closing down at $3,441/mt, a decline of $6/mt or 0.17%. Trading volume rose to 10,480 lots, and open interest increased by 3,121 lots to 240,000 lots.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) has initiated an expiry review of the anti-dumping (AD) duties currently applied to stainless steel seamless pipes originating from Ukraine. The existing duty rate of 18.96% will remain in effect throughout the investigation period, which covers data from 2022 to 2025, with the specific dumping analysis period set as January 1 to December 31, 2025. This move aims to determine whether the removal of duties would lead to a recurrence of dumping and injury to the domestic industry within the Eurasian Economic Union. The extension of these measures limits the price competitiveness of Ukrainian stainless pipes in the EAEU market, maintaining a protective environment for regional producers.

The performance of the gold price in March surprised many investors, as the precious metal recorded significant price declines despite geopolitical escalations.

【SMM Steel】Ukraine's Zaporizhcoke reduced output by 3.2% m/m to 75,000t in April 2026, but up 4.1% y/y. Jan-Apr output reached 281,700t, flat y/y. Weak results early in the year were due to reduced coal concentrate supplies from shelling of port/transport infra and power outages disrupting stable ops. Output began recovering in February and continued in March-April. In 2025, output rose 2.7% y/y to 898,300t. Since 2022, the company has spent over UAH360m on coke oven battery overhauls. Zaporizhcoke is part of Metinvest Group, with Zaporizhstal as its main consumer.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,953/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead fluctuated upward, touching a high of $1,963/mt. Entering the European session, LME lead moved sideways within $1,955.5-1,961.5/mt, then shifted to fluctuate downward, eventually closing at a low of $1,945/mt, down 0.33%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened lower with a gap at 16,710 yuan/mt. Prices briefly dipped before rebounding slightly in the early session, but encountered resistance above. Subsequently, the overall trend shifted to fluctuate downward, probing a low of 16,645 yuan/mt near the session end, eventually closing at 16,650 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt or 0.57%. Open interest stood at 63,800 lots, down 1,254 lots from the previous trading day. Macro front: The US Fed kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and Powell will remain as governor. Warsh's Fed Chairman nomination passed a Senate committee vote. Trump: now is a good time to cut interest rates; Powell stays at the Fed because no one else wants him. Trump: believes the Russia-Ukraine and Iran conflicts will end at roughly the same time; negotiations with Iran are being conducted by phone, very conveniently. Iran stated that if the US continues to seize ships, it will respond with "unprecedented military action." Putin proposed a "Victory Day" temporary ceasefire with Ukraine and put forward suggestions on Iran's nuclear program; Trump suggested a temporary ceasefire in Ukraine. World Gold Council: global central banks increased gold holdings at the fastest pace in over a year in Q1. Liu Haoling was appointed as CSRC vice chairman. China discovered 13 new 100-million-mt oil fields and 26 new 100-billion-m³ gas fields. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, SHFE lead maintained narrow-range fluctuations. Ahead of the holiday, suppliers actively made shipments, but warrant quotations in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai remained scarce, with cargoes self-picked up from production site of primary lead smelters as the main source. Some quotations were lowered from the previous day, with mainstream production areas quoted at premiums of -20~+30 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, while a few regions maintained quotations at premiums of +100 yuan/mt. Secondary lead side, regional tight supply persisted. Secondary lead smelters in North China, Southwest China and other regions made shipments following the market. Secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis. Downstream enterprises successively went on holiday, procurement demand weakened notably, inquiries were also scarce, and spot market transactions were sluggish. Inventory: As of April 29, LME lead inventory decreased by 500 mt to 268,700 mt. As of April 27, SMM lead ingot social inventory saw slight destocking. Lead price forecast for today: Consumption side, as the Labour Day holiday approached, battery factories' periodic restocking largely concluded last week. Downstream just-in-time procurement follow-through was weak, and overall demand remained subdued. Supply side, constrained by tight raw material inventory, some secondary lead smelters adopted production cuts or halted operations, and spot cargo availability in the market continued to tighten; meanwhile, lead ingot destocking outside China continued, and China's primary lead social inventory also pulled back slightly. Currently, the lead market presents a weak supply-demand pattern, and lead prices are highly likely to maintain fluctuating trend in the short term.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Poor Macro Sentiment, LME Zinc Posted Three Consecutive Losses] Overnight LME zinc posted three consecutive losses, with the daily candlestick center shifting downward and the 40-day average line providing support below. Overnight the US Fed kept interest rates unchanged, the US dollar index strengthened, and market concerns over economic growth intensified. Non-ferrous metals were in the doldrums, LME zinc......