SMM, July 7: In the first half of 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East emerged as one of the decisive factors affecting electrolytic aluminum prices. Prior to the Middle East events, expectations of a US dollar rate-cut cycle were bullish for non-ferrous metal prices, and overseas electrolytic aluminum prices generally maintained a firm trend in January. However, high aluminum prices suppressed demand, compounded by the impact of the domestic Spring Festival holiday, leading to larger-than-expected domestic aluminum ingot inventory accumulation. In February, domestic and overseas aluminum prices fell in tandem. On February 28, the US-Israel coalition launched a military strike against Iran, officially marking the beginning of the Middle East geopolitical conflict's impact on aluminum prices. Middle East Geopolitical Conflict Triggers Production Cuts; Supply Gap Expectations Drive Up LME Aluminum Prices Affected by the US-Iran conflict, some aluminum smelters in the Middle East experienced production cuts. Combined with the Mozambique aluminum smelter entering shutdown in March, the market expected overseas electrolytic aluminum fundamentals to face a significant supply gap. Boosted by this, overseas aluminum prices continued to climb, with the LME 3M aluminum price reaching a near three-year high of $3,787.5/tonne on June 2. The timeline of production cuts at Middle East and Mozambique aluminum smelters is as follows. In addition, power and other infrastructure in Iran was damaged, making it difficult for local aluminum smelters to sustain production. However, with no official announcements yet, SMM has made its own production cut assessment. As of mid-April, SMM estimated that the total capacity affected by production cuts in the Middle East and Mozambique could reach approximately 3.5–4.0 million tonnes. Under the impact of significant production cuts, overseas electrolytic aluminum fundamentals shifted to a deficit, with total LME aluminum ingot inventory and Japanese port aluminum ingot inventory continuing to decline. As of end-June 2026, LME global aluminum ingot inventory stood at 302,000 tonnes, down 207,000 tonnes from end-2025. As of end-May, Japanese major port electrolytic aluminum inventory was 239,000 tonnes, down 78,000 tonnes from end-2025. Amid expectations of supply tightening, ex-China aluminum premiums strengthened. As of end-June, SMM Japan MJP aluminum ingot spot premium recorded $380/mt, up 123.5% from the end of last year, and SMM Japan Q3 MJP aluminum ingot premium recorded $395/mt, up $309/mt from Q4 2025, a jump of 359.3%. SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid price recorded $547.5/mt, up 62.2% from the end of last year, while SMM Europe P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid price recorded $470/mt, up 64.9% YoY. SMM US Midwest DDP aluminum premium recorded 110.5¢/lb, equivalent to around $2,435/mt, up 18.2% from the start of the year, an absolute increase of approximately $374.7/mt. Although supply tightened and aluminum ingot destocking took place, downstream purchasing enthusiasm was subdued by high prices, with actual transactions in Asia persistently at a discount to the Japan MJP aluminum ingot premium. Indonesia saw a concentration of new project startups; as new projects continued to ramp up production, supply increased, and since Q2, Indonesia aluminum ingot FOB prices showed a trend of pulling back slightly. As of end-June, SMM FOB Indonesia P0610A average price recorded $270/mt, up 92.9% from the end of last year, but down 8.8% from this year's high of $296/mt. SMM FOB Indonesia P1020A average price recorded $266/mt, up 97.0% YoY, but down 8.6% from this year's high of $291/mt. Aluminum premiums in other regions maintained an overall uptrend. As of end-June, SMM CIF South Korea P1020A average price recorded $342/mt, up 132.7% from the end of last year; SMM FCA South Korea P1020A average price recorded $362/mt, up 119.4% YoY; and SMM CIF Thailand P1020A average price recorded $328/mt, up 120.9% YoY. High Profits Accelerate Electrolytic Aluminum Restarts and New Project Commissioning Under high aluminum prices, electrolytic aluminum companies enjoyed substantial profits. These high profits stimulated some idled capacity to accelerate restarts and also catalyzed more new electrolytic aluminum projects, accelerating their commissioning. In the first half of the year, three electrolytic aluminum smelters resumed idled capacity to varying degrees, and two additional smelters announced plans to restart production in 2026. Details are as follows: San Ciprián smelter in Spain safely completed restart on April 8, with total capacity of approximately 230,000 tonnes/year, representing an increase of approximately 150,000–200,000 tonnes/year compared to 2025 operating capacity. Mount Holly in the United States began restart in April, with plans to reach full capacity by end-June, involving 50,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Grundartangi smelter in Iceland began restart in April, expected to complete restart by end-July, involving 210,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Magnitude 7 Metals planned to restart potline No. 1 cells at its New Madrid aluminum smelter in the United States, with plans to add 75,000 tonnes/year of primary aluminum capacity by end-2026. Norsk Hydro indicated that the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia planned to restart partial primary aluminum production in Q4 2026, involving 75,000 tonnes/year of capacity. Regarding new projects, according to SMM estimates, total planned commissioning capacity for overseas electrolytic aluminum in 2026 is approximately 2.3 million tonnes, of which approximately 700,000 tonnes have been commissioned, with the remaining 1.6 million tonnes expected to be commissioned in the second half of 2026. For details, please follow the "SMM Overseas Electrolytic Aluminum Project Monthly Review" series. Overall, although the Middle East and Mozambique experienced large-scale production cuts in the first half of the year, the acceleration of restarts and new project commissioning partially offset the supply reduction. According to SMM estimates, total overseas electrolytic aluminum production in H1 2026 was 14.397 million tonnes, down 4.1% year-on-year, and total overseas demand was 13.612 million tonnes, down 3.1% year-on-year. Since overseas electrolytic aluminum had a net inflow of approximately 1.234 million tonnes into the domestic market in H1, the overseas electrolytic aluminum deficit in H1 is estimated at approximately 450,000 tonnes. H2 Outlook: Middle East Restarts Combined with New Project Ramp-up Increase Supply, Putting Pressure on Aluminum Prices In June–July, the Middle East geopolitical situation showed no clear signals of further deterioration, and news of restarts emerged from Middle East aluminum smelters that had undergone production cuts. On July 2, EGA announced that its Al Taweelah plant had made progress in restart efforts: anode removal work for all electrolytic cells had been completed; cell cleaning was approximately 90% complete; and over 20% of solidified aluminum blocks inside cells had been cleared. On May 26, the first electrolytic cell was successfully restarted; as of July 2, 89 cells were in operation (out of a total of 1,262 cells), equivalent to approximately 110,000 tonnes of capacity. In addition, Aluminum Bahrain and Qatalum were also expected to gradually begin restarts. With Middle East restarts combined with continued ramp-up of new projects, the global electrolytic aluminum balance is expected to shift toward a surplus by Q4 2026.

The essence of this supply crunch is a "three-layered squeeze": Layer 1: Physical cutoff – the Hormuz blockade severed Middle Eastern supply, halting nearly half of global seaborne trade. Layer 2: Policy lockdown – overlapping export bans from Russia, Kazakhstan, and Turkey blocked alternative supply sources, further tightening global tradable volumes. Layer 3: Capacity and inventory collapse – war-damaged Middle Eastern production facilities are slow to restart.

SMM July 2 News: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stated on Wednesday that US inflation upside risks have clearly cooled over the past four weeks, easing market concerns about aggressive rate hikes; he also indicated that no further forward guidance would be released on subsequent interest rate policy, refusing to disclose whether the US Fed needs to consider a rate hike at its next meeting; the US dollar weakened, and precious metals rebounded. As of around 16:09 on July 2, COMEX gold dropped 0.11% to $4,077.9/ounce; SHFE gold main contract rose 1.53% to 890.66 yuan/g; COMEX silver dropped 1.1% to $59.845/ounce; SHFE silver main contract rose 1.91% to 14,650 yuan/kg; silver T+D rose 2.95% to 14,551 yuan/kg. In the precious metals stock market, as of the close on July 2, the precious metals sector rose 4.21%, with individual stocks: Zhaojin Gold and Chifeng Gold hit their daily limit up, while Shanjin International, Xiaocheng Technology, Zhongjin Gold, and Western Gold led the gains. News [Warsh: Inflation Eases Over Past Four Weeks, AI Is Reshaping Economy, Forward Guidance Loses Necessity] On July 1, at the ECB's annual central bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Warsh again clearly stated that the US Fed would not provide forward guidance on the future interest rate path , hoping that policymakers can engage in thorough discussions based on the latest data at each meeting, rather than previewing the policy direction to the market in advance. He said that US inflation risks had eased over the past four weeks, and the supply expansion brought by AI could profoundly change how the economy operates, with the US at the center of this transformation, but whether AI ultimately leads to inflation or deflation should be judged by the central bank based on data. Warsh said the US Fed is “charting a new path” and will no longer hint at the direction of interest rates in advance as it did in the past. He said: “We will hold our next meeting in four weeks, and I hope we can have a real family-style debate then.” He reiterated that forward guidance is not the right policy in the current economic situation, and the US Fed will continue to base its decisions on the latest economic data in the future, rather than committing to a policy path in advance. This means that the US Fed will rely more on real-time economic data rather than sending policy signals to the market in advance. Spot Market Silver In the spot market: On July 2, the reference average factory price of SMM 1# silver in the morning was 14,558 yuan/kg, up 3.35% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, overall offers remained firm early in the month, but transaction follow-through was slightly weak, and consumption performance fell short of expectations. As silver prices rebounded slightly, downstream wait-and-see sentiment intensified. In Shanghai, morning offers were mainly at TD+5 to +15 yuan/kg. Some smelters quoted on the high side, but actual buying interest was weak, with most deals clustered around TD+10 yuan/kg. In other regions, low-priced cargoes had basically been cleared, while offers in Shenzhen were mostly around TD+5-10 yuan/kg. Today, the market quoted premiums for the SHFE most-traded contract 2608 at a discount of 30 to 20 yuan/kg. Overall, a slight cooling in rate-hike expectations provided some support for precious metals prices. At the start of the month, the spot direction remained unclear. Maintenance at copper plants last month caused a slight disruption on the supply side, and offers generally maintained a slight premium structure. Views From Various Parties Regarding the outlook for precious metals, some institutions’ views are as follows: On July 1, the World Gold Council released the “2026 Mid-Year Outlook for the Global Gold Market.” Looking ahead to H2, gold’s valuation framework indicated that gold will continue to serve as a barometer of the global macro economy, with three main possible scenarios. From current levels, gold prices were broadly in line with market consensus: the market expected the US Fed to raise rates at least once in 2026, most likely in October; the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank were all set to tighten policy; and US Q2 inflation was expected to peak, near $3.9. If there were no major changes in the above environment, gold prices may trade around $4,100/oz within the year, with a fluctuation range of about ±5. If geopolitical or economic conditions deteriorate, or if interest-rate expectations shift, gold is expected to regain its upward momentum; however, only sufficiently strong signals of a global economic slowdown would be likely to drive a breakout to the upside. On the downside, a stronger US dollar, rate hikes exceeding expectations, and a rebound in market risk appetite were the main headwinds for gold prices; if gold prices remain below $4,000/oz, it may trigger further selling. However, based on historical performance, if gold prices fall by more than 10% from current levels, it may trigger “buy-the-dip” demand from long-term investors in multiple regions. State Street Investment Management said that, as the opportunity cost of holding gold and heightened volatility weighed on investor sentiment, bullish gold trades had been weak, and spot gold prices repeatedly tested the $4,000/oz support level. State Street believed that, although gold prices may be more volatile than in 2024-2025, the gold bull-cycle still has upside room, and the US Fed’s hawkish policy shift was expected not to change gold’s post-pandemic structural trend. State Street noted, “Since the US-Iran conflict, China’s retail gold imports have surged, and local premiums have risen in tandem, reflecting tightening fundamentals in China’s gold supply-demand balance.”State Street expects that over the next six to nine months gold prices could rise to the $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce range, with strong support in the $3,750 to $4,000 per ounce area. However, compared with the macro environment from January to February, the probability of gold prices reaching $5,500 to $6,250 per ounce is relatively small. (Zhitong Finance) State Street Investment Management strategists noted in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the gold bull cycle remains persistent. They believe that as U.S. government debt rises, gold's role as a currency hedge is expected to be supported, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (as a share of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) currently remain below State Street's target allocation of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Moreover, they added that a hawkish pivot by the Fed should not alter gold’s structural post-pandemic trend. State Street expects base bullion prices to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce in the next six to nine months. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at Saxo Bank said, "The market has not yet attracted enough buying interest to establish that level as a support level." They also pointed out, "Even though energy prices have pulled back recently, investors still expect the Fed may further tighten monetary policy to combat an inflation rebound, and as a result, gold prices fell 14% in Q2, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013." (Jinshi Data APP) CICC's latest research report pointed out that gold may have already overpriced rate hike expectations. Fed rate hikes are still not the base case, and the gold market may have overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback this year. CICC's macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, along with the expanding financing needs of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to materially turn hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in words but dovish in action." Based on the implied interest rate expectations model from gold prices, it is estimated that the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce has fully priced in three to four rate hikes, exceeding the rate hike expectations priced in by the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and futures market short-term funds may have opportunities to cover short positions. (Jinshi Data APP) Li Xunlei, Deputy Director of the China Chief Economist Forum, pointed out that gold's long-term trend exhibits long bear markets and short bull markets. Since 1971, 30 years have been bear markets and 25 years have been bull markets, but each bull market has seen gains of over fivefold. A bull market typically lasts around 10 years. This gold bull run has now lasted nearly 10 years, with prices tripling during that time, so caution is warranted at this stage. (Jin10 Data App) Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh said the bank has cut its Q3 gold price forecast by over 20% to $4,300/oz and lowered its Q4 forecast by 17% to $4,800/oz. "Potential investors who would normally provide support are notably absent," he said, pointing to weak demand for exchange-traded funds and reduced buying appetite in some countries. (Jin10 Data App) Macquarie said profit-taking weighed on silver prices last month, and price action is once again driven by macro factors amid rising expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes. Similar to gold, silver prices are expected to move sideways for the rest of the year, then gradually decline into 2027, with inflationary pressures and the likelihood of further US Fed rate hikes limiting upside room. The higher inflation and bond yields, the greater the downward pressure. Silver, in particular, has been more susceptible to a pullback after outperforming gold, driven by bullish sentiment fueled by supply tightens, low inventory, and strong demand. Historically, silver pullbacks tend to be rapid. Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70/oz in Q4 this year and pull back to $65/oz by the end of 2027. (Jin10 Data APP) Recommended reads:

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Hold Up Well, Low-Price Restocking of Stainless Steel Spot Cargoes Increases According to SMM on June 30, SS futures consolidated with an upward bias. Although the night session was weak, futures drifted higher after the daytime session opened. By the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,740 yuan/mt. In the spot market, prices dipped in early trading due to weakness in the night session, but as SS futures continued to strengthen during the daytime session, transactions recovered somewhat, and low-price restocking demand increased. SS Futures: The most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,540 yuan/mt, down 175 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the 480-980 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price for cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled 304/2B coil with raw edges, the average price was flat in Wuxi and flat in Foshan; the price for cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in the Wuxi area was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the quoted price in Wuxi was flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coil prices were flat in both Wuxi and Foshan. Stainless steel futures and spot markets were in the doldrums this week. Macro headwinds from outside China, coupled with sentiment disturbances in the industry, led to heightened market pessimism, fully highlighting off-season fundamentals. The overall pattern was one of macro pressures weighing on futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventory, supply tightening helping to support inventory levels, and shrinking steel mill profits. Futures were dragged lower by monetary policy and raw material rumors, while spot prices showed resilience, supported by steel mills holding prices firm; however, end-user transactions were sluggish, and the overall market sentiment was bearish. On the futures side, this week's price movements were driven by macro headwinds. The de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict...

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Drift Higher, Spot Stainless Steel Transactions Remain Sluggish According to SMM on June 29, SS futures held up well. Base metals futures overall showed strength, and SS futures also rose in tandem. As of the close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,770 yuan/mt. In the spot market, although SS futures recovered somewhat, affected by recent market fluctuations, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was heavy. Coupled with already weak demand in the off-season, spot prices mostly held steady and transactions remained sluggish. SS futures most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,715 yuan/mt, up 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 355-855 yuan/mt. In the spot market, average prices were unchanged for: Wuxi cold-rolled 201/2B coil; cold-rolled 304/2B raw edge coil in Wuxi and Foshan; Wuxi cold-rolled 316L/2B coil; Wuxi hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices consolidated with a weaker bias. Ex-China macro headwinds, coupled with industry sentiment disruptions, heated up market pessimism, with off-season fundamentals fully evident. Overall, the pattern was one of macro pressures weighing on futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventory, supply contraction underpinning inventory levels, and shrinking steel mill profits. Futures were dragged lower by monetary policy and raw material rumors, while spot prices sustained resilience supported by steel mills holding prices firm. However, end-user transactions were sluggish, and the overall market was bearish. Futures…

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures in the Doldrums Amid News-Driven Fluctuations, Stainless Steel Trading Weak During Off-Season Demand According to SMM on June 26, SS futures climbed before pulling back. Driven by the Indonesian government's clarification of rumors regarding RKAB quotas, SS futures strengthened during the night session, but in the morning, dragged by a decline in SHFE nickel, they continued the previous downtrend, drifting lower. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS futures contract settled at 14,585 yuan/mt. In the spot market, inquiries and trading activity picked up early in the session, supported by SS futures’ overnight strength, and offer prices rose accordingly. However, as futures weakened again, wait-and-see sentiment quickly intensified, and trading activity once more turned sluggish. SS futures, the most-traded contract. At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,670 yuan/mt, up 70 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area were in the range of 400-900 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi stayed flat; the average price of cold-rolled 304/2B (raw edge) coil dropped 50 yuan/mt in Wuxi, while Foshan remained flat; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil prices in Wuxi fell 50 yuan/mt; hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil offers in Wuxi were flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan held steady. This week, stainless steel futures and spot prices were in the doldrums. Macro headwinds from outside China, combined with industry sentiment disruptions, fueled market pessimism, with off-season fundamentals fully coming to the fore. The overall picture showed macro factors pressuring futures, weakening off-season demand, traders cutting prices to reduce inventories, supply contraction supporting inventory levels, and steel mills…

Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,278.5/mt, touched a high of $13,289/mt right after opening, then its center moved downward to hit $12,988/mt, and finally closed at $13,026.5/mt, down 2.59%. Trading volume reached 36,000 lots, open interest stood at 248,000 lots, a decrease of 4,061 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,200 yuan/mt, edged up slightly to 102,260 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated downward to touch a low of 100,500 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 100,880 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 93,000 lots, open interest stood at 162,000 lots, an increase of 5,968 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position additions.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,433/mt, and after opening, it fluctuated downward and fell to a low of $13,363/mt. The price did not return to the opening level during the session, and finally closed at $13,373.5/mt, with a decline of 2.18%. Trading volume reached 26,000 lots, and open interest reached 251,000 lots, a decrease of 489 lots compared to the previous trading session, reflecting bulls reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 103,100 yuan/mt. In early trading, it slightly rose to 103,350 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward and fell to a low of 102,820 yuan/mt, finally closing at 102,990 yuan/mt, with a decline of 0.57%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots, and open interest reached 152,000 lots, an increase of 3,887 lots from the previous trading session, reflecting bears adding positions.

Today, SMM's 10:00 AM price for Ag (T+D) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 15,800 yuan/kg, with premiums quoted maintained at parity to +20 yuan/kg over TD and an average premium of +10 yuan/kg. Geopolitically, over the weekend, the Iranian side stated that the US openly reneged on its commitment and failed to implement the first clause of the memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the war. Meanwhile, given Israel's continued violation of the ceasefire agreement, the Iranian military announced on Saturday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty amid repeated US-Iran conflict continued to impact precious metal market trading. Spot market, overall transactions today remained sluggish. Suppliers' quotes were relatively firm, with mainstream premiums maintained at parity to +20 yuan/kg over TD. The overall quoted premiums edged up slightly from last Friday, but actual trades still leaned towards the lower end. Morning quotes in Shanghai concentrated around parity to +20 yuan/kg over TD, with some non-deliverable silver ingot spot cargoes quoted below mainstream levels. Low-priced supply in other regions was also relatively limited. Smelters' quotes mostly hovered around parity to +10 yuan/kg. Affected by persistent silver price fluctuations, downstream purchasing sentiment was relatively cautious, with restocking driven mainly by rigid demand; the wait-and-see sentiment remained pronounced. Overall, spot market transactions extended their sluggish pattern today, with moderate trading activity.

[SMM Analysis] Sulfur Price Outlook: The Game Between Geopolitical Premium Fade and Supply Recovery Lag