SMM News, May 25: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper gained 1.06%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.47%. SHFE lead rose 0.06%, SHFE zinc rose 0.34%. SHFE tin gained 1.22%. SHFE nickel rose 0.23%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.54%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 0.58%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.07%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 0.48%. Ferrous metals all rose. Iron ore gained 0.25%, rebar rose 1.23%, hot-rolled coil rose 1.03%, and stainless steel edged up. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract and the most-traded coke contract hit the daily limit up with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. Overseas base metals: The London Metal Exchange (LME) was closed on May 25 for the UK bank holiday and will resume trading on May 26. Precious metals: as of 11:38, COMEX gold rose 0.86% and COMEX silver gained 2.44%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures rose 0.64% and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 2.27%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 0.2% and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.01%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract fell 3.36% to 2,901 points. As of 11:38 on May 25, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, #1 copper cathode spot prices in North China against the front-month contract were reported at an average discount of 360 yuan/mt to a discount of 280 yuan/mt. The average price fell 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 105,230 yuan/mt, up 1,035 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Macro front Domestic: [Huawei Announces Semiconductor Tao's Law] On May 25, Huawei officially announced a new law in the semiconductor field. "Tao's Law" proposes replacing "geometric scaling" with "temporal scaling," achieving new breakthroughs in transistor density and system performance through logic folding technology. This marks the first time China has proposed a new principle guiding industrial development in the global semiconductor field. By 2031, high-end chip transistor density based on this law is expected to reach the equivalent level of the 1.4nm process node. (People's Daily) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Result in Net Injection of 257 billion yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 258 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with an operation rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. 1 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. On the US dollar: As of 11:38, the US dollar index fell 0.3% to 99.03. Kevin Hassett, chief economic adviser to US President Trump, said he believes that the eventual decline in oil prices will create room for the Fed to cut interest rates. "We again expect that once a deal is reached, energy prices will plunge," Hassett said. "When that happens, the Fed will have plenty of room to take the right action and lower interest rates." He emphasized that he respects the Fed's independence and praised Kevin Warsh, who was sworn in as Fed Chairman last Friday. Although the surge in US fuel prices caused by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz poses a growing political risk to Trump and his Republican Party in the November midterm elections, Hassett believes that the accelerating inflation is mainly driven by energy prices. "If you look at the last few data reports, energy prices are absolutely concerning, but core prices have barely moved at all," he said. "I think once we see energy prices pull back, due to declining energy prices, you may actually see negative inflation." (Jin10 Data) According to CME's "FedWatch": the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June was 97.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 2.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July was 84.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike was 14.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point rate hike was 0.3%. (Jin10 Data) On data: Today, data including China's year-to-date installed power generation capacity in April and its year-on-year rate will be released. In addition, attention should be paid to: 500 billion yuan of 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos will mature today. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, US stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday); CME's precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on the 26th, and US stock and US Treasury futures contract trading will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 26th. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, Hong Kong stock markets will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with both southbound and northbound trading suspended; South Korean stock markets will also be closed for one day on the same day. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed on Monday, May 25; trading of ICE Brent crude oil futures contracts will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) Overseas exchange closure arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: As of 11:38, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 5.92% and Brent down 5.32%. Rising expectations of a US-Iran deal boosted global risk sentiment, putting oil prices under pressure. The direct catalyst for the oil price decline was signs of improvement in actual transit conditions through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency citing a statement from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, 33 vessels — including oil tankers, container ships, and other commercial vessels — passed through the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours on Sunday after receiving authorization from the IRGC Navy. (Wallstreetcn) The Washington Post reported on May 24 that the US and Iran had reached agreement on a framework for a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which, once signed, would fully restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. Citing an anonymous senior US government official, the report said the US and Iran had developed an MOU "framework" that includes a 60-day ceasefire extension to allow both sides to reach a "final agreement" on permanently ending hostilities with Iran, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be demined and reopened. The official said the MOU includes a "commitment" that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. Over the next two months, the US and Iran will discuss the "mechanism" for implementing this commitment. However, neither side signed any agreement on May 24. (Xinhua) Trump said on social media on Saturday that a US-Iran deal was largely done, including the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and told US representatives not to rush into a deal. But on Sunday he said the deal was "not fully done yet." US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had previously said there could be "some good news" on the Hormuz issue in the coming hours. Iran remained cautious. Iran's Tasnim News Agency warned that the draft agreement could still collapse due to US obstacles on several key terms — including Iran's demand for unfreezing assets. (Wallstreetcn) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Tug-of-War Between Longs and Shorts, Zinc Prices Maintain Range-Bound Trading] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a small bullish candlestick, with various moving averages below forming support. On the macro front, there are expectations of easing geopolitical conflicts, but inflationary pressure remains significant. The tug-of-war between longs and shorts keeps LME zinc in range-bound trading.

SMM May 23: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly rise. SHFE copper rose 0.58%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%. SHFE zinc fell 0.16%. SHFE tin rose 1.09%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.77%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.06%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 792.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar edged down 0.09%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal continued to fall for the third consecutive trading day, down 1.45%, and coke fell 0.95%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals market saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper rose 0.18%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc edged up 0.06%. LME tin rose 1.16%. LME nickel rose 0.67%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.7%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 1.13% weekly drop; COMEX silver fell 1.06%, falling for two consecutive weeks with a 2.1% weekly drop. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.1%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 2.13% weekly drop; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.51%, but SHFE silver fell for two consecutive weeks with a 7.81% weekly drop. As of 8:31 am on May 23, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: 600 billion yuan MLF operation to be conducted on May 25] PBOC: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a maturity of 1 year. [CSRC: Crackdown on illegal cross-border securities business; investors' property safety unaffected by the rectification] Xinhua News Agency reported that recently, with the approval of the State Council, the CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Rectification of Illegal Cross-border Securities, Futures, and Fund Business Activities." Regarding this rectification, all parties are highly concerned about how the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors will be protected. In this regard, the plan emphasized that investors' property safety will not be affected by the rectification. A CSRC official said the plan specified numerous measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors. For example, a 2-year concentrated rectification period will be set to phase out relevant domestic services of overseas institutions. Overseas institutions are required to properly communicate with investors affected by rectification measures in China and arrange account disposal to ensure client property safety. [Hong Kong SFC: Enhanced measures to address forged documents and money laundering risks and raise account opening standards] The Hong Kong SFC issued a circular on May 22, setting out the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining customer relationships. The circular was issued following the SFC's review of account opening practices at 12 securities brokerages. The review identified multiple significant deficiencies, including inadequate due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with ex-China intermediaries. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.32. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up 0.04% for the week. The 17th Fed Chairman Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday. Warsh stated: "The Fed's mission is to promote price stability and full employment." He said, "When these goals are pursued with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, economic growth can be stronger, real take-home wages can be higher, America can be more prosperous, and just as importantly, America's standing in the world can be more secure." He added: "To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform-oriented Fed that learns from past successes and mistakes, breaking free from static frameworks and models while adhering to clear standards of integrity and performance." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks put US Treasury prices under pressure, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026. The most significant policy signal on Friday came from Fed Governor Waller. On Friday local time, Fed Governor Waller stated that as the energy shock from the Iran war pushes up prices, he supports making it clear that the Fed's next rate move is as likely to be a hike as an interest rate cut. Waller said his current stance is to remain patient and keep rates unchanged until the impact of the war becomes clearer, but he warned on Friday that he does not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Waller's remarks were released almost simultaneously with the swearing-in of new Fed Chairman Warsh. The interest rate environment Warsh currently faces is notably more hawkish than the Fed's internal dot plot expectations. (Wall Street CN) "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that there were several key moments during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House: ① Trump asked Warsh to be "completely independent." Trump said, "(I hope he) doesn't look at me, doesn't look at anybody." ② Just two minutes later, Trump offered some "suggestions" indicating the economic direction he hoped to see: "Strong economic growth doesn't need to be cooled down," "Economic growth does not mean inflation," and "I want the economy to boom to unprecedented levels, because there is indeed some debt to deal with." ③ Trump hinted that the US Fed's decision-making body would "converge." He said other Fed policymakers "will make their own decisions, but they will listen to Kevin throughout," even those "whose positions are slightly different." ④ Warsh referenced Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh recalled the historical scene of Greenspan being sworn in at the White House in 1987, and pledged to "begin work with abundant energy and a sense of mission, just as Chairman Greenspan did." He made no mention of former Chairman Bernanke, with whom he had worked for five years during his previous tenure as a governor. (Jin10 Data) In addition, affected by the Iran war, the US consumer confidence index in May fell to a historic low, and long-term inflation expectations also deteriorated significantly. Data showed that the University of Michigan's final reading of the May consumer confidence index dropped to 44.8, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from 3.5% in April and hitting a seven-month high. They also expected prices to rise 4.8% over the next year. Gasoline prices continued to hover near their highest levels since 2022, exacerbating Americans' concerns about rising living costs and the failure to reach a deal to end the war. The impact of inflation on household budgets, particularly for low-income consumers, poses risks to the future consumption outlook. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, stated: "Cost of living concerns remain the top issue on people's minds, with 57% of respondents spontaneously citing that high prices are eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month." She stated: "The key point is that consumers appear worried that inflation will not only spread beyond fuel prices to other areas, but that this upward trend could persist well into the future." (Jin10 Data) Regarding other currencies: ECB President Lagarde stated that despite the deepening impact of the Iran conflict, long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the 2% target. Although the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and dragging down the economy, long-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored overall. The impact of this conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect transmission effects. (Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told him during their meeting on Friday that she hoped the BOJ would adopt appropriate policies, taking into account the government's price measures. Ueda Kazuo told reporters after the meeting with Takaichi Sanae at the Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo that it was a routine meeting between the two and that no specific details of monetary policy were discussed. (Wall Street Journal) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, US May Dallas Fed business activity index, Australia April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision through May 27, Switzerland May ZEW investor confidence index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Eurozone May industrial confidence index, Eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, US April durable goods orders MoM, US April new home sales annualized, Japan April unemployment rate, France May CPI MoM preliminary, France Q1 GDP YoY final, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany May CPI MoM preliminary, Canada March GDP MoM, US May Chicago PMI, and China May official manufacturing PMI. In addition, other events to watch this week include: 500 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo maturing today; BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breeman holding a monetary policy press conference; the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; and US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and trading of US equity and Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with Southbound and Northbound trading suspended. The South Korean stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) The overseas market exchange closure schedule is as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: Both oil futures rose during the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 1.62%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 3.98% for the week, and Brent futures declined 4.59% for the week. Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April this year, US-Iran negotiations have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in sight. Although a draft reportedly "close to being finalized" has been emerging, four core obstacles still stand in the way of lasting peace. According to Bloomberg, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions currently constitute the four core points of divergence in the negotiations. For investors, this war has plunged global energy markets into severe turbulence, and any progress or breakdown in negotiations will have an impact on commodity prices. (Wallstreetcn) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 22 that it was premature to say a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as significant differences remained between the two sides. According to Iranian media reports on May 22, Baghaei, commenting on the visit of senior Pakistani officials to Tehran, said it indicated that the current situation had entered a "turning point or decisive stage." He mentioned that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir had visited Tehran and that related communications were still ongoing. When asked whether this meant a change in the negotiation process, Baghaei said it could not be said that a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as there were serious and wide-ranging differences between the US and Iran, and "diplomacy is a time-consuming process." Baghaei added that one should not expect to see results within weeks or months through several rounds of back-and-forth consultations. He emphasized that diplomatic negotiations are inherently a long-term process, and both sides are utilizing various opportunities to convey their respective positions. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week. The total US oil rig count for the week ending May 22 was 425, compared to the previous reading of 415. In addition, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company reported that Q1 oil production fell 12% YoY to 5.6 million mt. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg, affected by the Iran war, the national average gasoline price in the US has surpassed $4.5 per gallon, with California exceeding $6. Despite high prices, consumers have not significantly reduced fuel purchases. For most Americans, driving to work and picking up children are daily necessities. Gasoline spending is nearly impossible to cut, and consumers can only reduce discretionary spending to balance their budgets. Philadelphia resident Avarisse Crawford said she has cut entertainment expenses, replacing steak dinners and bar outings with free park activities. The ongoing Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered global crude oil transportation, and US gasoline inventory has fallen to its lowest level for the same period since 2014. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit a seasonal historic low by the end of August. Facing persistently climbing oil prices, the Trump administration has successively released strategic petroleum reserves, waived the Jones Act, and discussed implementing a federal gasoline tax holiday, but the effects remain unclear. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer travel season, upward demand pressure is expected to further strain already tight inventories. (Wallstreetcn) Recommended Reading:

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,962/mt. During the Asian session, LME lead prices moved sideways within the $1,961-1,965/mt range before edging higher. Entering the European session, LME lead prices briefly dipped before rising on fund-driven momentum, touching a high of $1,981/mt. Prices pulled back slightly toward the end of the session, ultimately closing at $1,977.5/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of $16/mt, or 0.82%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,506 yuan/mt. After the open, it dipped slightly, touching a low of 16,525 yuan/mt, before fluctuating upward driven by a broad rally across non-ferrous metals, reaching a high of 16,640 yuan/mt. It ultimately closed at 16,630 yuan/mt, posting a bullish candlestick with a gain of 90 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. On the macro front: Trump said US-Iran negotiations had entered the final stage. Foreign media reported that Trump insisted on a diplomatic solution to the Iran issue, while Netanyahu strongly opposed it. NVIDIA's Q1 revenue and Q2 outlook both exceeded expectations, yet US stocks remained flat in after-hours trading. Foreign media reported that OpenAI would submit its IPO filing as early as Friday. SpaceX officially submitted its IPO filing, with Q1 revenue of $4.7 billion. The Ministry of Commerce stated that both China and the US agreed in principle to discuss a framework arrangement for reciprocal tariff reductions on products of equivalent scale under the Trade Council. The Ministry of Finance reported that securities transaction stamp tax in the first four months was up 74.8% YoY. Spot fundamentals: Yesterday, the SHFE lead price center shifted lower again, approaching previous lows. Suppliers became less willing to ship, with fewer offers, and some suppliers narrowed their discount quotes. Secondary lead smelters shipped along with the market, with secondary refined lead quoted at a premium of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis. Apart from lead smelters with consumption location advantages that had rigid demand transactions, trades at premiums were difficult. Downstream enterprises showed strong wait-and-see sentiment, with some having already made purchases yesterday. Inquiries decreased today, and spot market transactions were moderate. Inventory: On May 20, LME lead inventory increased by 22,275 mt to 286,475 mt. On May 18, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions pulled back WoW. Lead price forecast for today: Overnight, the broad rally across the non-ferrous metals sector drove SHFE lead higher. In late May, lead prices fell to low levels, spot trades in the market recovered, and smelter and social inventory continued to decline, serving as the main support for lead prices to stop falling. However, secondary lead enterprises gradually resumed production, limiting the overall destocking pace, and the upside for lead prices will also be constrained by the pace of production resumptions. Currently, the off-season pattern in the lead market remains unchanged, with downstream lead-acid battery enterprises generally maintaining production cuts. Lead prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: US-Iran Negotiations Enter Final Stage, LME Zinc Rebounds from Lows]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,513/mt. After the opening, LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a low of $3,499.5/mt early in the session and a high of $3,569.5/mt late in the session, ultimately closing up at $3,567.5/mt, up $56.5/mt or 1.61%, with trading volume increasing to 9,871 lots...

SMM May 21 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals collectively rose in both domestic and overseas markets. LME tin lead the gains with a surge of 4.92%, SHFE tin rose 3.93%. LME copper, LME aluminum, LME zinc, LME nickel, SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE zinc all rose over 1% — LME copper up 1.69%, LME aluminum up 1.17%, LME zinc up 1.61%, LME nickel up 1.09%, SHFE copper up 1.43%, SHFE lead up 1.06%, SHFE zinc up 1.35%. The remaining metals gained less than 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 0.07%, and the casting aluminum front-month contract rose 0.24%. Overnight, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel rose 0.51%, iron ore fell 0.56%, and rebar fell 0.09%. Hot-rolled coil and rebar both edged up. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.12% and coke rose 0.11%. Overnight, for precious metals, COMEX gold rose 0.78% and COMEX silver rose 1.39%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.88% and SHFE silver rose 2.7%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:42 AM on May 21: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Finance: Securities transaction stamp tax reached 93.5 billion yuan in January-April, up 74.8% YoY] In January-April, national general public budget revenue totaled 8,340.4 billion yuan, up 3.5% YoY. Of this, national tax revenue was 6,809.7 billion yuan, up 3.9% YoY; non-tax revenue was 1,530.7 billion yuan, up 1.6% YoY. By central and local breakdown, central general public budget revenue was 3,547.4 billion yuan, up 4.6% YoY; local general public budget revenue was 4,793 billion yuan, up 2.7% YoY. Stamp tax was 206.3 billion yuan, up 27.8% YoY. Of this, securities transaction stamp tax was 93.5 billion yuan, up 74.8% YoY. [MOFCOM: The Chinese government implements export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews compliant, civilian-use license applications] The head of the Department of American and Oceanian Affairs of MOFCOM provided interpretation on preliminary trade and economic outcomes. MOFCOM stated that the Chinese and US trade teams had thorough communication on export control issues, and both sides will jointly study and resolve each other's reasonable and legitimate concerns. The Chinese government implements export controls on rare earths and other critical minerals in accordance with laws and regulations, and reviews compliant, civilian-use license applications. China is willing to work with the US, together with DAS solar, to create favorable conditions for promoting mutually beneficial cooperation between enterprises of both countries and safeguarding the security and stability of global industry chain and supply chains. US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.13. The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding the monetary policy outlook, participants generally believed that persistently elevated inflation levels and uncertainty about the duration and economic impact of Middle East conflicts could require the current policy stance to be maintained for longer than expected. Several participants emphasized that it might be appropriate to lower the target range for the federal funds rate once clear signs emerged that the pullback trend in inflation had steadily resumed, or if signs of greater weakness in the labour market appeared. However, most participants noted that if inflation remained persistently above 2%, some tightening measures might be needed. To address this situation, many participants indicated that they would prefer to remove language from the post-meeting statement that implied the Committee's future rate decisions might lean toward easing. Participants noted that monetary policy was not set in stone and that future policy decisions would be determined based on the specific circumstances at each meeting. (Jin10 Data APP) The US Fed meeting minutes showed that regarding monetary policy expectations, the US Fed's head of market operations noted that market-implied expectations still indicated that market participants did not anticipate much change in the federal funds rate target range this year, with options prices implying approximately a 30% probability of a rate hike by Q1 2027. In the Open Market Trading Desk survey, the median of the modal path continued to show two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts over the next year, but respondents now expected the cuts to come later than in the previous survey, with cuts anticipated in Q3 or Q4 2026 and Q1 2027, respectively. (Jin10 Data APP) Market analysts noted that the US Fed's April meeting minutes showed that as the Iran conflict pushed inflation higher, an increasing number of officials raised hawkish concerns. At the prior meeting in March, "some" participants had indicated that the US Fed had ample reason to provide balanced policy guidance—that the next move could be either a rate hike or a rate cut—contrary to the prevailing assumption that rates would eventually be cut. In April, this group expanded to include "many" officials who preferred more neutral language in the policy statement. The April minutes also noted that, overall, officials generally believed that rates would need to remain on hold for longer than they had initially anticipated. (Jin10 Data APP) According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 97.3%, with a 2.7% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through July was 87.2%, with a 2.4% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut and a 10.4% cumulative probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. (Jin10 Data APP) On the data front: Data to be released today include China's April SWIFT yuan share in global payments, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 16, US April annualized housing starts, US April building permits, US May Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US May S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), US May S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), Eurozone May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), Eurozone March seasonally adjusted current account, Eurozone May Consumer Confidence Index (preliminary), France May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), Germany May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), UK May Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), UK May Services PMI (preliminary), UK May CBI Industrial Orders Balance, and Australia's April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate. In addition, at 2:00 on May 21, the US Fed will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting, NVIDIA will report earnings and hold an earnings call after the US stock market close, Bank of England Governor Bailey will deliver a speech, and China will open a new round of refined oil price adjustment window. Crude Oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets fell in tandem, with WTI crude dropping 4.87% and Brent crude falling 5.5%, as tensions between the US and Iran temporarily eased. Crude oil futures extended their losses as the market shifted its focus to hopes for an agreement to end the US-Iran conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. BOK Financial analyst Dennis Kissler stated that despite the bullish news of a significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week, which should have supported oil prices, prices continued to slide. "That tells me that most likely some kind of negotiation is going on." "The market is pricing in some kind of a deal." (Jin10 Data APP) The US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US EIA crude oil inventory fell by 7.8 million barrels last week, compared with Bloomberg user expectations of a 6 million-barrel decline, analyst expectations of a 2.8153 million-barrel decrease, and a 4.306 million-barrel decline the previous week. The weekly EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory recorded its largest decline in history. The single-week crude oil inventory decline including SPR was the largest on record. (Wallstreetcn) On May 20, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed that last week, total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves plunged by a record 17.8 million barrels, as oil exports advancing at a historically high pace began to erode the US domestic supply buffer. Of this, the volume drawn from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) accounted for approximately 9.9 million barrels of the total decline. Meanwhile, inventory at the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery hub declined for the fourth consecutive week, continuing to approach "tank bottoms"; traders continue to view movements at this core storage and transportation hub as the primary potential signal that total US inventory is entering a downward decline cycle. (Wallstreetcn)

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Complex Macro Landscape, Lead Prices More Closely Aligned with Fundamentals] Recently, geopolitical conflicts outside China have been intricate and complex, with wars and negotiations going back and forth, and risk-averse sentiment running high in the market. Meanwhile, LME lead inventory continued to decline...

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Ingot Inventory Continued to Decline, Zinc Prices Surged During the Day]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,414.5/mt. After the opening, LME zinc dipped slightly, touching a low of $3,387.5/mt before quickly rising, reaching an intraday high of $3,454.5/mt. LME zinc then fluctuated at highs before pulling back, ultimately closing higher at $3,437/mt...

[Lead-Acid Battery Enterprise Updates] Recently, Leoch International announced that, after considering various factors such as current market and regulatory conditions, it decided not to proceed at this stage with the proposed spin-off of Leoch Energy Inc. and its listing on a US stock exchange. Leoch Energy Inc. will adjust its financing strategy and seek new opportunities.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,937.5/mt. During the Asian session, it moved sideways around the intraday moving average. After entering the European session, it rose to a high of $1,945.5/mt, then fluctuated rangebound at high levels before pulling back to a low of $1,932/mt. Before the close, it edged up slightly to recover part of the losses, and finally closed at $1,935.5/mt, down $3/mt, or 0.15%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead contract opened at 16,605 yuan/mt. After dipping to 16,550 yuan/mt in early trading, it rebounded and consolidated near the intraday moving average, finally closing at 16,595 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous day, or 0.21%. On the macro front: The fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress closed in Beijing. The meeting voted to adopt the resolution on the government work report and reviewed and approved the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, charting the course for economic and social development over the next five years. Data released by the US Department of Labor on Thursday showed that although the February nonfarm payrolls report released last week came in weaker than expected, the mild pullback in initial jobless claims indicated that the scale of corporate layoffs remained limited, with employers still more inclined to retain workers. This eased market concerns about a sharp deterioration in the labour market. After the data release, major US stock indexes maintained their declines, while energy stocks were among the few sectors that rose due to a sharp increase in oil prices. Spot Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SHFE lead 2604 contract. The center of SHFE lead moved further lower, and suppliers shipped in line with market conditions. In addition, with delivery approaching, some suppliers became less willing to sell, and quotations appeared somewhat firmer, with significantly fewer transactions at large discounts. Among them, ex-factory quotations in major primary lead producing areas were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 25 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price. Meanwhile, circulation of spot cargo in the secondary lead market was limited, and secondary refined lead was quoted ex-factory around parity against the SMM #1 lead average price. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased under long-term contracts, with limited spot order replenishment, while some purchased as needed. Trading in the spot market was subdued on both sides. Inventory: As of March 12, LME lead inventory fell by 375 mt to 284,500 mt; as of March 12, SMM social inventory of lead ingots across five regions continued its accumulation trend. Lead Price Forecast for Today: Approaching the weekend, operating rates at primary lead smelters in Hunan gradually resumed, though they had not yet returned to full production, and primary lead quotations in Hunan and Guangdong remained relatively firm. As the delivery date of the SHFE lead 2603 contract approached, suppliers were shifting inventory to delivery warehouses one after another, and social inventory of lead ingots continued to become more visible. With more imported lead arriving at ports and China refined lead supply gradually recovering, spot cargo in the spot market was relatively ample. Downstream enterprises had more procurement options, actively negotiated prices, and bought the dip. In the short term, the accumulation trend in social inventory of lead ingots is expected to be difficult to reverse, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums.