Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai Grade B23R085: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan Grade 23RK085: 11,700-11,700 yuan/mt This week, spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel remained stable overall, with market trading holding steady. After the previous steel mill price adjustments were fully absorbed by the market, trader sentiment became more rational, keeping spot price centers within their established range with limited fluctuation. Demand side, just-in-time procurement by transformer and power equipment enterprises continued as usual, while end-users replenished inventory in batches as needed, with a small volume of forward orders also being locked in, underpinned by solid restocking demand. Supply side, production schedules at steel mills remained stable, with mainstream specification goods released normally, leaving overall circulating inventory ample and no significant pressure for inventory buildup. Looking ahead, mainstream steel mill ex-works prices are expected to hold steady; coupled with sustained investment growth in the power grid during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, orders for UHV and data center power transmission and transformation projects are steadily being released, boosting medium- and long-term downstream demand expectations. Based on a comprehensive assessment, spot prices lack downward drivers in the short term, and the cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel spot market is expected to continue its steady trend next week. Data source statement: All data, except for public information, is based on public information and market communication, derived through SMM's internal database models and processed by SMM. It is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For reprinting, account whitelisting, or cooperation requests, please contact us. Without permission, content shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, or disseminated, nor disclosed to any third party or licensed for third-party use in any form. Otherwise, upon discovery, Shanghai Metals Market will pursue liability for infringement through legal means, including but not limited to demanding contractual breach compensation, the return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

Representatives of the Brazilian pig iron industry met with the US Trade Representative (USTR) to argue against a potential 37.5% import tax on their products. Industry advocates emphasized that US steelmakers and foundries heavily rely on Brazilian pig iron, which has near-zero net greenhouse gas emissions due to charcoal usage, and noted there is no short- or medium-term substitute available. Imposing this 37.5% tariff would significantly disrupt the US supply chain, inevitably driving up production costs for US steelmakers and potentially shifting global pig iron trade flows as Brazilian suppliers may seek alternative markets.

US Steel has selected direct reduction technology developer Midrex to supply a 2.5 million mt/year HDRI/HBI MIDREX® Plant for its new DRI facility at Big River Steel in Osceola, Arkansas, which is expected to start production in 2029. According to Midrex, the project marks a key milestone for the North American steel industry, as it will be the first DRI facility in the US to integrate with EAF steelmaking and be supported by a domestic DRI-grade pellet supply chain.

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B23R085 grade: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 grade: 11,700-11,700 yuan/mt Spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel edged higher this week, with moderate trading activity in the market. Following the full implementation of earlier price hike policies by steel mills, the market digestion pace remained smooth. Traders held a strong sentiment to hold prices firm, pushing the center of spot quotations slightly higher. Demand side, just-in-time procurement by transformer and power equipment enterprises remained normalized. While end-users restocked in batches as needed, some enterprises locked in forward raw materials in advance, releasing a small amount of restocking demand, providing sufficient just-in-time demand support. Supply side, production pace at various steel mills was stable, with mainstream specification resources being released normally. Overall supply was ample, with no significant pressure from either inventory buildup or rapid destocking. Looking ahead, mainstream steel mills still show willingness to hold prices firm. Additionally, with power grid investment under the "15th Five-Year Plan" ramping up, orders from UHV and data center substation projects continue to be released, and medium and long-term downstream demand expectations continue to improve. Overall, spot prices lack downward momentum in the near term, supported by both raw material costs and terminal orders. Next week, the spot market for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel is expected to maintain a generally stable with slight rise trend. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, for reference only, and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content belonging to this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, and other requests, please contact us. Without permission, the above content may not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties or licensed for use by third parties in any form. Otherwise, once discovered, Shanghai Metals Market will pursue legal liability for infringement, including but not limited to requiring the assumption of contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

[United States] US steelmaker Nucor kept its hot-rolled coil (HRC) offers unchanged this week, marking the first pause in price hikes since late January and ending a 22-week upward streak. For the week ending June 29, Nucor's HRC offer remained stable at 1245 USD/tonne EXW, while California Steel Industries' price also held flat at 1300 USD/tonne EXW. Nucor's delivery times are currently ranging between 3 and 5 weeks. Based on domestic and global HRC price trends as well as robust current demand, Nucor continues to expect the HRC market to remain strong in the coming months.

Grain-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Update Shanghai B23R085 Grade: 12,200-12,200 yuan/mt Wuhan 23RK085 Grade: 11,700-11,700 yuan/mt This week, spot prices for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel remained stable, with orderly market trading. Following the implementation of previous steel mill price hikes, the market entered a digestion period. Mainstream quotations held steady, with no significant change. Supply side, steel mills maintained stable production paces, with mainstream resources released normally and ample supply in an orderly manner. Social inventory stayed within a reasonable range, without significant inventory buildup or rapid destocking pressure. Supply-demand remained in a weak balance. Demand side, just-in-time procurement from transformer and power equipment enterprises was normalized. Terminals replenished stock in batches as needed, with no concentrated stockpiling behavior observed. Transactions were dominated by just-in-time orders. Demand provided solid support, with no price-cutting to boost volumes. Mainstream steel mills raised their July EXW prices, showing strengthened willingness to hold prices firm. Coupled with increased power grid investment under the 15th Five-Year Plan, ultra-high voltage and data center substation projects continued to release orders. Downstream medium and long-term demand expectations are positive. Comprehensive assessment suggests that, lacking any basis for a sharp decline in the short term and supported by costs and orders, the spot market for cold-rolled grain-oriented silicon steel is expected to be generally stable with a slight rise next week. Mainstream quotations may see some upside room. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content from this official account. For requests regarding reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation, please contact us. Without permission, the above content may not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties nor licensed for third-party use. Otherwise, SMM will pursue legal action against the infringing party, including but not limited to demanding liability for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.

HRC prices: Over the coming year, from 2026 to 2027, China has nearly 40 million mt of HRC capacity projects under planning and construction, with production expected to increase further in 2026. Demand side, China's macro policies are expected to remain accommodative, and the manufacturing sector is likely to continue introducing policies to stimulate consumption, with demand expectations staying resilient. However, affected by anti-dumping measures and export structure adjustments, the decline in HRC exports will weigh on the domestic high-supply pattern. Overall, HRC prices are expected to continue hovering at lows in 2026. But considering that overseas geopolitical conflicts are pushing up inflation expectations and transmitting to commodity prices, coupled with coal and coke prices hitting bottom in 2025 and entering a new recovery uptick cycle, against the backdrop of cost push, the average HRC price may rebound slightly compared to 2025. Looking ahead to the next five years, considering that the peak period of new production capacity has passed, with the accelerated promotion of industry mergers and reorganizations and the continuous optimization of the capacity structure, HRC supply growth is expected to gradually slow down and stabilize starting from 2027. SMM expects that around 2028, a policy package of supply-side production restrictions plus steel export scale tightening may re-emerge, and the improvement in the overcapacity contradiction may bring about a round of upside opportunities for HRC prices. However, unlike the intensity of the 2015 supply-side reforms that were coupled with real estate easing and shantytown renovation destocking policies, after the phased capacity removal ends, the overall downward trend in China's steel consumption will be hard to reverse, which will limit the upside room of this HRC price rally driven by supply-demand imbalance easing. Additionally, the supply-demand pattern of iron ore trending looser will also pull down costs, and HRC prices are expected to come under pressure again after a brief rise. Steel mill profits: Considering that China's surplus steel capacity is resolved through steel exports, this necessitates China's steel prices to stay relatively low to support price advantages and orders, which will also limit the upside room of China's steel prices, steel mill profits are expected to remain at low marginal levels in H2 2026. China Hot-Rolled Coil Annual Supply-Demand Balance （ The line chart represents China's HRC price, and the bar chart represents the HRC balance. ）

The American Iron and Steel Institute recently reported that the US imported a total of 1.874 million short tons of steel in April 2026, including 1.378 million short tons of finished steel, up 5.9% and 5.5% respectively from March. From January to April 2026, total US steel imports were 6.972 million short tons, down 29.5% MoM, while finished steel imports stood at 5.118 million short tons, down 30.5% MoM. The finished steel import market share in April is estimated to be 16%, and for the first four months of 2026, 15%.

Marking the one-year anniversary of the US imposing a 50% Section 232 tariff on Canadian steel, the Canadian Steel Producers Association (CSPA) is urging the removal of the measure ahead of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review period beginning July 1, 2026. Prior to the trade conflict, Canada was the largest supplier of steel to the US, but shipments have plummeted by 60% in 2025 as a result of the tariffs. With Canada having already adopted strict trade policies to block global overcapacity from China, the CSPA argues the tariffs are unjustified and disruptive to the integrated North American supply chain, pushing for a collaborative "Fortress North America" approach instead.

【SMM Steel】Indonesian hot-rolled coil has filled the gap in Taiwan's market caused by anti-dumping duties on Chinese HRC and rising local prices. Indonesian mills customized mainstream sizes and flexible specifications to attract Taiwan processors, securing over 5000 tonnes of orders in June alone exceeding the total volume for all of last year. Major Indonesian suppliers backed by large trading networks are driving this expansion. While re-rollers remain cautious steel traders and cutting processors actively secure these alternatives to fill the void left by Chinese supply. This surge establishes Southeast Asian mills as a force capable of reshaping Taiwan's steel supply network as competing Indonesian producers prepare to lower price quotes to secure more orders.