In 2025, driven by supply contraction and multiple demand growth , the global sulfur market saw supply-demand mismatch throughout the year, with prices rising sharply to new highs in recent years. Entering 2026, sulfur’s byproduct nature will constrain supply; Russia’s supply recovery will be slow; the Middle East will centrally control prices; the resonance of rigid demand from spring plowing and new energy “scrambling for sulfur,” together with heightened shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, will drive the global sulfur market to continue in a tight balance, keep the price center at elevated levels, and further reshape the regional supply-demand pattern. 2025 Review: Widening Supply-Demand Gap, Sharp Price Increase (I) Supply Side: Pronounced Rigid Contraction, Intensified Regional Supply Divergence According to the SMM survey, current global sulfur capacity is approximately 85 million mt. The entire industry is operating at close to full capacity, but incremental growth is limited, with annual production at around 80 million mt. As the core of global sulphur supply (with total Middle East production accounting for over 30% of the global total), some resources are prioritised for local markets and emerging markets such as Indonesia (long-term contracts first + high-price diversion). Resources exported to traditional demand countries have been heavily diverted, exacerbating tightness in resource circulation. Meanwhile, Russia, as a core global sulphur producer, has shifted from a net exporter to a net importer due to the Russia-Ukraine war. Coupled with shipping disruptions, geopolitical disturbances, and capacity release falling short of expectations, globally circulating resources remain persistently tight, driving sulphur prices higher. (II) Demand Side: Stable Traditional Rigid Demand +Growth in Emerging New Energy, with a Significant Increase in Total Volume In 2025, global sulfur demand presented a dual-engine pattern of “traditional rigid demand providing a floor, and emerging demand surging”: agriculture remained the largest consumption mainstay, with phosphate fertiliser production at its core forming a solid base of demand; traditional chemical demand such as titanium dioxide and caprolactam grew steadily; the new energy track saw explosive growth , becoming the core engine boosting incremental sulfur consumption. Together, these three sectors drove total sulfur demand to keep rising, in stark contrast to the rigid contraction on the supply side caused by its oil-and-gas associated nature. Compared with previous years, the most notable change in the global sulfur market in 2025 was the explosive growth in new energy demand, which had become the central driver of incremental demand. Sulfur consumption in the new energy sector was highly concentrated in two major tracks—LFP and mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP)—and formed a clear global regional division of labor: LFP production was highly concentrated in China, while MHP was focused in Indonesia; the two production hubs jointly dominated sulfur demand for new energy. Against the backdrop of an accelerating global green energy transition, China’s NEV and energy storage industries have continued to expand. Leveraging core strengths of high safety, long cycle life, and significant cost advantages, LFP has become the preferred cathode material for large-scale energy storage and NEVs, boosting the continued expansion of domestic capacity. According to the SMM database, global LFP production reached 3.77 million mt in 2025, of which China accounted for 3.75 million mt , representing more than 99%, corresponding to a boost in total sulfur demand of over 3 million mt . Meanwhile, relying on world-class laterite nickel ore resource endowments, Indonesia has vigorously developed HPAL hydrometallurgy, converting low-grade nickel ore into high value-added battery-grade nickel raw materials (MHP). By extending the industry chain and enhancing product value-added, it has become deeply embedded in the global power battery supply chain. According to the SMM database, Indonesia’s MHP production reached 443,900 mt Ni in 2025 , directly boosting sulfur consumption by over 5 million mt; and after planned capacity comes on stream in 2026, Indonesia’s share of global MHP capacity will further rise from 67% to 77% , becoming the most explosive source of incremental sulfur demand globally and a key variable reshaping global sulfur trade flows. Outlook for 2026: The Supply-Demand Gap Further Widens, and Prices Hover at Highs In 2026, the global sulfur market further maintained a tight balance, with supply growth failing to keep pace with demand growth and the supply-demand gap widening further, becoming the core factor supporting prices fluctuating at highs. （I）Supply Side: Limited Growth, Constrained by Multiple Factors As a by-product of oil and gas extraction and refining, sulfur’s supply capability is highly dependent on the level of activity in global crude oil and natural gas production, while also being directly affected by geopolitical conditions, the smoothness of international shipping, and changes in trade policies. Disruptions at any stage will significantly impact the stability of global sulfur supply, the pace of price movements, and the distribution of trade flows. In 2026, the global sulfur supply side will exhibit operating characteristics of “ constrained growth and a diverging regional landscape .” According to the SMM survey, incremental global sulfur supply in 2026 was only about 2.6 million mt, including about 500,000 mt in China and about 2.1 million mt in the Middle East. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the long-term trend of the global energy transition, global refining capacity and crude oil throughput are expected to enter a peak plateau around 2035 and then gradually pull back, which will fundamentally constrain the long-term growth potential of sulphur supply. According to the SMM survey, global crude oil demand growth in 2025 only remained at around 1%, with relatively weak growth momentum. As the core producing region for high-sulphur crude oil globally, the Middle East saw OPEC+ confirm a temporary pause in production increases in Q1 2026, further suppressing upstream supply elasticity. Meanwhile, Iran has long been subject to US sanctions, with crude oil production and exports continuously constrained. The most-traded refineries in Russia continued to come under impact, with both production stability and logistics channels significantly affected; sulphur output and export capacity were sharply constrained and are expected to be difficult to recover in H1 2026, further exacerbating the tight globalised sulphur supply landscape. In early 2026, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East intensified, and shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz rose markedly ; nearly 50% of global sulfur trade volumes passed through this corridor. Vessel detours, longer voyages, and a sharp rise in war-risk insurance premiums directly pushed up the landed cost of sulfur. In 2025, Middle East sulfur FOB prices climbed from about $170/mt at the beginning of the year to the latest level of about $520/mt , an increase of more than 200%. Meanwhile, continued turmoil in the Red Sea further extended shipping cycles and lifted overall import costs. Disrupted logistics and rising costs created dual pressure, reducing effective market circulation and slowing the pace of arrivals, becoming a key factor supporting sulfur prices fluctuate at highs. The natural gas sector brought marginal improvement to supply: according to the latest quarterly report released today by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global natural gas demand in 2025 was about 1.3% . As a substantial increase in LNG supply eased market fundamentals and drove strong demand growth in Asia, global demand growth in 2026 will accelerate to about 2% . New projects in the US, Canada, and Qatar will come on stream in succession, and LNG supply is expected to increase by 7%, i.e., 40 billion m³. With natural gas consumption rising steadily, sulfur production as a by-product of natural gas desulfurization will increase accordingly, providing some supplementation to overall supply. According to the SMM survey, global sulphur production growth slowed to 2.28% in 2025. In 2026, supply-side expansion will be limited, and supply growth will remain at a low level, with total annual supply expected to reach 82-83 million mt. (II)Demand Side: New Energy-Driven, with Continuous Structural Optimization Global sulphur demand in 2026 will sustain strong growth, with demand growth significantly outpacing supply growth . The key drivers are underpinned by rigid agricultural demand and a growth in incremental growth from new energy. According to the SMM survey, global phosphate fertiliser consumption will grow steadily at an annual rate of about 1.6%. As the largest downstream demand segment for sulphur, it provides a solid foundation for the overall market; demand in the chemical sector will also expand steadily at an annual rate of about 4%–6%. The most noteworthy incremental growth in 2026 will come from the concentrated ramp-up across the global new energy industry chain. According to the SMM database, newly built and commissioned LFP capacity in China in 2026 will exceed 2.5 million mt ; together with the release of existing capacity, the industry’s effective capacity is expected to surpass 9 million mt, driving a sharp increase in demand for high-purity sulphuric acid and sulphur. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s nickel hydrometallurgy projects are accelerating, adding about 400,000 mt Ni of new MHP capacity. Based on its sulphur intensity of as high as 11.7 mt, this will generate incremental sulphur demand on the order of 1 million mt, creating a global “competition for sulphur” alongside global phosphate fertiliser, traditional chemicals, and new energy materials, further exacerbating tight global sulphur supply. SMM has launched SMM CIF Indonesia Sulfur and Sulfur (Solid) price assessments for market reference. SMM CIF Indonesia Sulfur Definition:CIF Indonesian main ports; Quality: Sulfur 99.5% min, Particle; Price Origin: Indonesia. Sulfur (Solid) price Definition: Ex-works, China; Quality: Sulfur（S) 99.00% min，conforming to GB/T 2449-2006; Price Origin: China.

The beginning of 2026 did not bring the calm usually expected in the global stainless steel industry chain ahead of the traditional Lunar New Year offseason. Instead, under the double pincer attack of surging raw material costs and escalating trade protectionism, the market is undergoing a violent restructuring.

SMM7月14日讯： 金属市场方面: 截至午间收盘，内盘基本金属近全线下行，沪铝跌1.76%，沪铜跌0.15%，沪镍跌0.18%。沪铅跌0.29%、沪锌跌0.89%，沪锡涨0.37%。 此外，铸造铝主连期货跌1.35%，氧化铝主连跌1.14%。碳酸锂涨3.43%，工业硅跌0.12%。多晶硅跌0.82%。 黑色系多飘绿，铁矿微涨，螺纹、热卷分别跌0.22%、0.18%。不锈钢跌0.43%。双焦方面：焦煤跌0.16%，焦炭涨0.66%。 外盘金属方面，截至11:40分，LME金属涨跌互现，伦铝跌0.94%。伦镍涨0.18%。伦锌跌0.07%。伦锡涨0.36%。伦铅跌0.3%。伦铜涨0.33%。 贵金属方面，截至11:40分，COMEX黄金涨0.23%，COMEX白银涨0.58%；国内方面，沪金涨0.66%；沪银涨2.01%，盘中刷新历史新高至9267元/千克。全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)--SPDR Gold Trust公布，截至周五(7月11日)，其黄金持仓量为947.64吨，减少1.16吨，或0.12%。前一交易日为948.8吨。美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）周五公布的报告显示，截至7月8日当周，黄金投机客减持COMEX黄金期货和期权净多头头寸1,855手，至134,842手。 截至午间收盘，欧线集运主力合约跌0.33%，报2010点。 截至7月14日11:40分，部分期货午间行情: 》7月14日SMM金属现货价格 现货及基本面 铜： 截至7月14日周一，SMM全国主流地区铜库存环比上周四增加0.39万吨至14.76万吨；相比上周四库存的变化，各地区库存除了上海地区外其他地区普遍增加...... 》点击查看详情 宏观面 国内方面: 【海关总署：上半年我国货物贸易进出口同比增长2.9% “新三样”产品增长12.7%】 国务院新闻办公室今日上午10时举行新闻发布会，请海关总署副署长王令浚等介绍2025年上半年进出口情况，并答记者问。Wang Lingjun introduced: Since the beginning of this year, under the strong leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core, China has adhered to the general principle of pursuing progress while ensuring stability, remained steadfast in managing its own affairs, unswervingly expanded high-standard opening up, and focused on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while effectively responding to external shocks. The national economy has maintained overall stability with progress, and China's foreign trade has withstood pressures, sustained momentum, and demonstrated vitality amid complex environments. According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, China's import and export of goods totaled 21.79 trillion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. Among these, exports reached 13 trillion yuan, increasing by 7.2%, while imports stood at 8.79 trillion yuan, down 2.7%. Specific features are highlighted in five aspects: 1) Steady growth in foreign trade scale. In H1, China's import and export scale exceeded 20 trillion yuan, reaching a record high for the same period. From a quarterly perspective, Q2 imports and exports grew 4.5% YoY, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points compared to Q1, marking seven consecutive quarters of YoY growth. 2) Diversification of foreign trade partners. 3) Optimized and upgraded export momentum. In H1, China's machinery and equipment exports reached 7.8 trillion yuan, up 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports—a 1.2 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year. High-end equipment closely related to new quality productive forces grew by over 20%, while "new three" products representing green and low-carbon sectors increased by 12.7%. 4) Expanding domestic demand stabilized imports. With policies like "implementing major national strategies" and "large-scale equipment upgrades" taking effect, imports turned positive in Q2. In H1, China's imports of machinery equipment for petrochemical and textile sectors achieved double-digit growth, key parts like electronic components grew rapidly, and imports of crude oil, metal ores, and other critical raw materials increased. 5) Vitality of foreign trade entities continued to release. 》Click for details [PBOC injects 119.7 billion yuan net liquidity today] The People's Bank of China conducted 226.2 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.40%. With 106.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net injection reached 119.7 billion yuan. ► On July 14, the central parity rate of the yuan in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1491 yuan per US dollar. US dollar update: As of 11:40, the US dollar index rose 0.09% to 97.96. US President Trump announced in a letter to the European Commission that a 30% tariff will be imposed on all European goods starting August 1. Several EU analysts have stated that announcing tariff hikes is a negotiating tactic employed by Trump. The market is currently awaiting the US inflation data for June, which will be released on Tuesday, to gain more clues about the US Fed's path for interest rate hikes. According to media reports on Friday, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said that Trump's new tariffs could spark fresh concerns about inflation, which might force the US Fed to remain on the sidelines. In other currencies: The euro fell to a three-week low on Monday, and the Mexican peso also came under pressure after US President Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the US's two largest trading partners starting August 1. Trump sent letters to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Saturday, announcing the new tariffs. In response, the EU and Mexico called the tariffs unfair and disruptive. The EU said it would suspend retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August while continuing to urge a negotiated solution. During the Asian morning session, the foreign exchange market's reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats was largely mediocre, with only the euro falling to a roughly three-week low. The market has become increasingly insensitive to Trump's series of tariff threats. His recent stirring up of global trade turmoil has hardly been able to stop the US stock market from repeatedly hitting new highs, and has only slightly boosted the US dollar. Taylor Nugent, a senior economist at National Australia Bank, said it was difficult to attribute the market's mediocre reaction in the past week to either increased resilience or self-delusion. However, negotiations are still ongoing, and the recent key substantive progress was that the July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs had arrived without any tariff rate increases, making it difficult for the market to price in a series of major news items that were said to determine the tariff levels on August 1. Data: Today, data such as China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), China's total social financing for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17), and China's new yuan-denominated loans for the year to date in June (time uncertain from July 14 to 17) will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on financial statistics for the first half of 2025; the National Energy Administration will release data on total electricity consumption around the 15th of each month; and US President Trump plans to make a "major announcement" on Russia. Crude oil: Both crude oil futures rose slightly. As of 11:40, US crude oil was up 0.13%, and Brent crude oil was up 0.16%. Concerns that further US sanctions on Russia could affect global supply have supported oil prices, but increased production by Saudi Arabia and ongoing tariff uncertainties have limited the gains in oil prices. 国际能源署(IEA)称，沙特6月石油日产量超出目标43万桶，达到980万桶/日，而根据OPEC 配额该国的产量目标应为937万桶/日。沙特能源部周五表示，沙特完全遵守了OPEC 的自愿产量目标，并补充称，沙特6月的市场原油供应量为935.2万桶/日，符合配额要求。 美国能源服务公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)周五在其备受关注的报告中表示，美国能源公司本周连续第11周削减石油和天然气钻机数量，为2020年7月以来首次。数据显示，截至7月11日当周，未来产量的先行指标--美国石油和天然气钻机总数减少2座至537座，为2021年10月以来最低水平。（文华综合） 现货市场一览: ► 周末全国主流地区铜库存增加0.39万吨【SMM周度数据】 ► 铜价回落且月差收窄，下游采购积极性上升【SMM华南铜现货】 ► 交割日临近 市场氛围表现安静【SMM华北铜现货】 ► 上海锌：现货成交一般 升水继续走低【SMM午评】 ► 宁波锌：下游订单走弱 成交表现平淡【SMM午评】 ► 【SMM铁矿石航运】全球铁矿石发运量和到港量同步小幅下滑6% ► 【SMM钢材航运】上周中国出口钢材总量环比上升28% ► 【SMM煤焦航运】上周焦煤到港213.36万吨 环比+40.05万吨 ► 需求减弱但下游囤货意愿增强 光伏玻璃7月冷修产能再增【SMM分析】 其他金属现货午评稍后更新，敬请刷新查看~

In a report last Friday, JPMorgan Chase presented a "worst-case scenario" for the crude oil market amid the Israel-Iran conflict: in this scenario, "oil price reactions would rise exponentially rather than linearly, and the impact on supply could exceed the reduction of 2.1 million barrels per day in Iran's crude oil exports."

SMM News on June 10: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, domestic market base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE zinc and SHFE nickel both fell by over 1%, with SHFE zinc down 1.27% and SHFE nickel down 1.06%. SHFE copper, SHFE lead, and SHFE tin all rose, with SHFE lead leading the gains with a 0.9% increase, SHFE copper up 0.27%, and SHFE tin up 0.21%. The main alumina contract fell by 0.31%, while the main cast aluminum alloy contract surged over 5% on its debut trading day, closing at 19,190 yuan/mt with a 4.49% increase as of the daytime close. 》Surged over 5% on debut! Cast aluminum alloy makes a "strong start" - can it sustain the momentum? [SMM Flash News] In addition, the main lithium carbonate contract rose by 0.16%, the main polysilicon contract fell by 0.83%, and the main silicon metal contract rose by 0.82%. The main European container shipping contract fell by 0.95%. The ferrous metals series showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell by 1.46%, iron ore fell by 0.85%, and HRC closed flat at 3,089 yuan/mt. In the coking coal and coke segment, coking coal rose by 0.51% and coke rose by 0.48%. In the overseas market, as of 15:09, overseas market metals showed mixed performance. LME lead rose by 0.38%, LME copper fell by 0.44%, and LME tin fell by 0.42%. LME lead led the gains with a 0.38% increase, while the price fluctuations of other metals were relatively small. In the precious metals segment, as of 15:09, COMEX gold fell by 0.26% and COMEX silver fell by 0.6%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 0.03% and SHFE silver rose by 0.62%. Market movements as of 15:09 today 》Click to view SMM Market Dashboard Macro Front Domestic Aspect: [NDRC: Will propose a batch of major strategic tasks, policy initiatives, and engineering projects in the field of people's livelihood] The State Council Information Office held a press conference at 10 a.m. today, inviting Xiao Weiming, Deputy Secretary-General of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and relevant officials from the Ministry of Education, Ministry of Civil Affairs, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, and National Health Commission to introduce policies on further safeguarding and improving people's livelihood and answer questions from reporters. Xiao Weiming, Deputy Secretary-General of the NDRC, stated at the press conference that the NDRC will implement the decisions and arrangements of the CPC Central Committee, work with all parties to prepare the "15th Five-Year Plan" based on thorough surveys, and propose a batch of major strategic tasks, policy initiatives, and engineering projects in the field of people's livelihood to incorporate people's livelihood construction into the national "15th Five-Year Plan" development blueprint. 》Click to view details [PBOC's Open Market Operations Net Withdraw 255.9 Billion Yuan Today] The PBOC conducted 198.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today. As 454.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net withdrawal of 255.9 billion yuan was realized on the day. ► On June 10, the central parity rate of the RMB exchange rate in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.1840 yuan per US dollar. US dollar side: As of 15:09, the US dollar index rose by 0.3% to 99.32. In the US, inflation expectations among the public pulled back in May, and the market held certain expectations for the US Fed to cut interest rates in H2. This week, US inflation data will be released, which is expected to provide more guidance on the direction of the US Fed's policy. A report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday showed that in May, US citizens' anxiety about the future inflation path eased somewhat, and their views on their personal financial situations became more optimistic. The New York Fed pointed out in its May Survey of Consumer Expectations report that inflation expectations across all timeframes it measures had pulled back. Respondents' one-year inflation expectation was 3.2%, compared to 3.6% in April; the three-year inflation expectation was 3%, compared to 3.2% in April; and the five-year inflation expectation was 2.6%, compared to 2.7% in April. Macro side: Today, data such as China's M2 money supply annual growth rate for May, China's total social financing for the year to date as of May, China's new RMB loans for the year to date as of May, the UK's unemployment rate for April (ILO standard), the UK's average weekly earnings including bonuses for the three months to April (annual growth rate), Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending June 8, Switzerland's consumer confidence index for May (seasonally adjusted), and the Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for June will be released. In addition, the deadline for the EU's public consultation is June 10, 2025. This date marks the final window of peace before the EU considers imposing retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth up to 95 billion euros. He Lifeng visited the UK from June 8 to 13 and held the first meeting of the China-US economic and trade consultation mechanism. Crude oil side: As of 15:09, oil prices in both markets rose together, with US crude oil up by 0.05% and Brent crude oil up by 0.13%. The market is looking forward to the results of the new round of China-US economic and trade talks. The overall macro atmosphere is optimistic, and oil prices continue to rebound towards the previous high resistance area. The progress of negotiations between the US and Iran on the nuclear agreement remains unclear, with significant differences between the two sides on key terms. US sanctions have caused buyers to waver in their procurement positions, and Iran's crude oil exports have been hindered. OPEC+ ended its voluntary production cut policy that had lasted for two and a half years in April this year, clearly formulating a production increase plan for May-July, and beginning a new round of production increase cycle. It may continue to maintain a daily production increase of 411,000 barrels in August-September. However, from the perspective of actual implementation, this production increase process has not been smooth. According to Bloomberg, the actual crude oil production of eight OPEC countries that planned to increase production in May only increased by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to April, far below the original target of 410,000 bpd. Among them, Saudi Arabia actually increased production by 110,000 bpd, while countries like Iraq, the UAE, and Kazakhstan, which often exceeded production quotas in the past, maintained relatively stable production levels this time, without further violations of the production agreement. Taking a comprehensive view of the data from April to May, the total actual production increase of OPEC+ over these two months was only 100,000 bpd, far from the planned target of 550,000 bpd. The implementation of OPEC's subsequent production increase plans may face significant challenges, and there is considerable uncertainty about whether the expected production increase targets can be achieved as scheduled. This also implies that the degree of supply surplus in the crude oil market may not be as severe as previously estimated by the market. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► Stainless steel in the doldrums, raw materials under pressure, short-term nickel iron prices may be in the doldrums [NPI Daily Review] ► [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On June 10, nickel salt prices remained stable. ► [SMM MHP Daily Review] On June 10, Indonesian MHP prices rose slightly.

Against the backdrop of the evolving global PV industry landscape, the US's newly introduced tariff policy on solar products from Southeast Asia is triggering a major transformation in the industry chain.

On Thursday local time, the International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year, as the impact of US tariff policies on the global economy was not as severe as previously anticipated, and low oil prices also boosted demand. The IEA currently expects global oil demand to grow by 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, with total demand averaging 104 million bpd, up from a previous forecast of 726,000 bpd growth. A report released by OPEC the day before showed that it expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million bpd in 2025. OPEC began gradually increasing production in April, and combined with Trump's tariff hikes, this led to a significant pullback in global oil prices. During European trading hours on Thursday, WTI crude oil futures prices plunged 3.6% to $60.58 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 3.7% to $63.66 per barrel. This was due to market optimism about the prospects of a potential nuclear deal between the US and Iran, as well as a recent increase in US crude oil inventories. Earlier this week, the world's two largest economies, China and the US, announced a trade agreement and agreed to mutually reduce tariffs, easing fears of an economic recession and driving oil prices to rebound from recent lows. However, lingering uncertainties surrounding future trade negotiations have limited further upside room. In its monthly report, the IEA reiterated its forecast of a significant global oil supply surplus next year, expecting global oil supply to increase by 1.6 million bpd in 2025 and 970,000 bpd in 2026. In its previous report last month, the agency had forecast global oil supply growth of 120 bpd and 960,000 bpd for this year and next, respectively. The IEA believes that supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries will be robust, with daily production expected to increase by 1.3 million bpd this year, though it is expected to rise by only 820,000 bpd next year, as US shale oil production will be impacted by low oil prices. "The decline in oil prices has prompted some shale oil producers to cut spending and activity levels, with more production cuts expected in the coming quarters," the IEA said. OPEC+ is expected to increase daily production by 310,000 bpd in 2025 and a further 150,000 bpd in 2026. The alliance has agreed to increase oil supply by 411,000 bpd in June, accelerating the pace of supply recovery for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about potential oversupply in the coming months. However, the IEA pointed out that only Saudi Arabia has the capacity to significantly increase production. Meanwhile, tighter US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran may reduce the scale of the supply surplus. IEA data shows that in April, despite increased sanctions pressure, Iran's production remained strong, while Venezuela's production was hit the hardest, with daily output falling by 130,000 bpd from the previous month.

SMM April 23 News: Metal Market: As of the daytime close, most base metals in the domestic market rose, with only SHFE lead falling by 0.29%. SHFE copper led the gains with a 1.22% increase, SHFE zinc rose by 0.97%, and other metals saw slight fluctuations. Alumina main contract rose by 1.49%. In addition, lithium carbonate main contract rose by 1.14%, silicon metal main contract rose by 1.08%, and polysilicon main contract rose by 2.7%. The European container shipping main contract rose by 0.33%. The ferrous metals series collectively rose, with iron ore up by 2.11%, rebar and HRC both rose by over 1%, rebar rose by 1.46%, and HRC rose by 1.41%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal rose by 2.56%, and coke rose by 3.14%. In the overseas market, as of around 15:03, base metals collectively rose, with LME aluminum and LME zinc both up by over 1%, LME aluminum rose by 1.41%, and LME zinc rose by 1.75%. LME copper and LME nickel both rose by over 0.6%, LME copper rose by 0.64%, and LME nickel rose by 0.62%. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold saw a significant correction today, with a drop of 3.06% as of 15:03, and COMEX silver fell by 0.4%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell by 4.55%, and SHFE silver fell by 0.02%. As of 15:03 today's market 》Click to view SMM market board Macro Front Domestic: 【SASAC: Vigorously Cultivate a Number of Strategic Emerging Industries and Future Industries with Core Competitiveness】 On April 23, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) announced that on April 22, the "Promoting Entrepreneurial Spirit, Accelerating the Construction of World-Class Enterprises" special seminar (Phase 2), jointly organized by the Central Organization Department, the Central Financial Work Committee, and the SASAC, opened at the China Executive Leadership Academy in Dalian. Zhang Yu Zhuo, Party Secretary and Director of the SASAC, stated that it is essential to remember the "greatness of the nation" and deeply understand that strengthening, optimizing, and expanding state-owned capital and enterprises is an inevitable move to serve the modernization of China. Currently, central state-owned enterprises should accelerate the development of new quality productive forces, vigorously cultivate a number of strategic emerging industries and future industries with core competitiveness, and better leverage the role of technological innovation, industrial control, and security support. (Cailian Press) 【Preview: The People's Bank of China will hold a press conference at 15:00 on April 23 to introduce the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-border Financial Service Facilitation in the Shanghai International Financial Center"】 The People's Bank of China will hold a press conference at 15:00 on April 23 to introduce the "Action Plan for Further Enhancing Cross-border Financial Service Facilitation in the Shanghai International Financial Center". ► On April 23, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2116 yuan per US dollar. US Dollar: As of 15:03, the US dollar index rose by 0.23% to 99.21. According to CCTV News, on the 22nd local time, US President Trump stated that the US Fed should lower interest rates and that he has no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell. In addition, Trump also expressed his hope that Powell would take more aggressive actions on interest rate issues. Fed Governor Kugler said on Tuesday that due to US import tariffs being significantly higher than expected and potentially putting upward pressure on prices, the Fed should keep short-term borrowing costs unchanged until inflation risks subside. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said on Tuesday that it is still unclear how to adjust short-term borrowing costs to respond to tariffs and their expected impact on inflation and the economy. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Data: Today, the preliminary values of France's April SPGI Manufacturing PMI, Germany's April SPGI Manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's April SPGI Manufacturing PMI, the UK's April SPGI Services PMI, the UK's April SPGI Manufacturing PMI, the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted trade balance for February, the revised monthly rate of US March building permits, the preliminary value of the US April SPGI Manufacturing PMI, and the seasonally adjusted annualized total of US March new home sales will be released. In addition, it is worth noting that 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak; Fed Governor Kugler will speak on "Monetary Policy Transmission"; 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem and Fed Governor Waller will deliver opening remarks at an event; the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held until April 24. Crude Oil: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose by over 1%, with US oil up by 1.65% and Brent oil up by 1.52%. New US sanctions on Iran supported oil prices. According to CCTV News, the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a statement announcing sanctions on Iran's liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) giant Saeed Asadollah Emamjomeh and his corporate network. The statement said that the network is responsible for transporting hundreds of millions of dollars worth of Iranian LPG and crude oil to overseas markets. The possibility of Iranian crude oil exports being blocked has increased, stimulating oil prices to rebound further from the supply side. In this regard, ZCE Futures stated that geopolitical impacts on oil prices are mostly pulse-like. Market expectations of reduced supply are favorable for oil prices, but the actual supply situation of OPEC+ will still need to be watched, and its impact on the market will diminish over time. From the inventory perspective, the weekly data released by API early this morning showed that as of the week ending April 18, US API crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 4.565 million barrels, while the market had expected an inventory buildup of 1.5 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 354,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.18 million barrels, and distillate oil inventories decreased by 1.64 million barrels. The report had an overall bullish impact on the oil market, further driving oil prices to rebound strongly. Continued attention will be needed to verify the EIA inventory report. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review ► April 23: SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, processing fees remained stable, and overall trading was moderate 【Aluminum Billet Spot Daily Review】 ► Aluminum prices rose slightly, but sentiment to adjust prices for secondary aluminum was insufficient 【ADC12 Price Daily Review】 ► 【SMM MHP Daily Review】 April 23: Indonesian MHP prices rebounded ► 【SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review】 April 23: Nickel sulphate prices remained stable ► Supply surplus persists, spot prices were in the doldrums 【SMM SiMn Daily Review】 ► 【SMM Nickel Daily Review】 April 23: Refined nickel spot prices rose slightly, and nickel prices continued to adjust within a range ► Market sentiment was cautious, and rare earth market prices continued to decline 【SMM Rare Earth Daily Review】 ► Manganese plants had strong sentiment to stand firm on quotes, and the manganese market remained deadlocked 【SMM EMM Daily Review】 ► Trade tensions eased, silver prices weakened, and spot market premiums remained unchanged from yesterday 【SMM Daily Review】

SMM April 22 News: Metal Market: At the close of the day, base metals in the domestic market generally rose, with only SHFE aluminum and SHFE tin falling, down 0.15% and 0.57% respectively. SHFE copper led the gains with a 0.88% increase, while the rest of the metals rose less than 1%. The main alumina contract fell 0.32%. Additionally, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 1.71%, while silicon metal and polysilicon main contracts both rose 0.34%. The main European container shipping contract fell 4.24%. In the ferrous metals series, most fell, with only iron ore rising, up 0.21%. Rebar fell 0.74%. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell 2.42%, and coke fell 1.83%. In the overseas market, as of 15:03, base metals collectively rose, with LME copper, LME lead, LME zinc, and LME tin all up more than 1%, with LME copper up 1.28%, LME lead up 1.01%, LME zinc up 1.03%, and LME tin up 1.61%. The rest of the metals rose less than 1%. In the precious metals sector, as of 15:03, COMEX gold rose 1.82%, hitting a new historical high of $3,509.9 per ounce during the session; COMEX silver rose 0.21%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose 4.13%, hitting a new historical high of 836.3 yuan per gram during the session. SHFE silver fell 0.23%. As of 15:03 today's market. Click to view the SMM market board. Macro Front: Domestically: The central bank conducted a net injection of 56 billion yuan in open market operations today. The central bank conducted 220.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations at a rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous rate. As 164.5 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos matured today, a net injection of 56 billion yuan was achieved. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Passenger Car Association, stated on his official account that China's auto exports from January to March 2025 reached 1.54 million units, up 16% YoY from January to March 2024. In March, China's auto exports reached 570,000 units, up 16% YoY, with strong YoY and MoM trends. The main drivers this year remain the improvement in the competitiveness of Chinese products and the slight growth in the markets of global southern countries. On April 22, the central parity rate of the RMB in the interbank foreign exchange market was 7.2074 yuan per US dollar. In the US dollar sector: As of around 15:03, the US dollar index remained flat at 98.36, still hovering near the three-year low previously set. Affected by Trump's threat to fire Powell, the US experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and the dollar, with the three major US stock indices all falling more than 2%; the US dollar index once fell below the 98 mark, down more than 1%; the 10-year US Treasury yield, seen as the "anchor of global asset pricing," returned to the 4.40% mark. Wall Street analysts said the main reason for the "triple kill" is that the independence of the US Fed has been questioned, and investor confidence in the US economy has been hit again. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that short-term inflation expectations are rising, but it is very important that long-term inflation expectations do not rise. The US Fed needs to wait and see, but if the impact of tariffs does not spread beyond the 11% of the economy that is imports, the impact may be relatively small. (Wenhua Comprehensive) Data-wise: Today, the preliminary value of the Eurozone's April consumer confidence index and other data will be released. Additionally, it is worth noting that US Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak at the Economic Liquidity Summit; the IMF will release the "World Economic Outlook" report; and ECB President Lagarde will be interviewed by CNBC. In the crude oil sector: As of 15:03, oil prices in both markets rose more than 1%, with US oil up 1.14% and Brent oil up 1.03%. The crude oil market is currently focusing on OPEC+'s production adjustments and their implementation progress. From the actual supply situation, OPEC data shows that Iran's daily average crude oil production in March reached 3.335 million barrels, up 1.74 percentage points from the January level. Despite US sanctions, Iran's crude oil output remains relatively stable, indirectly proving that its export channels and end-use demand have strong resilience. Recently, OPEC+ members submitted compensatory production cut plans, which to some extent alleviated market concerns about supply surplus and provided some support for the recent sluggish oil price trend. OPEC+'s recently announced compensation plan clarified monthly deduction quotas, requiring seven major oil-producing countries to gradually fulfill compensatory production cut obligations by June 2026, with an average additional cut of 369,000 barrels per day. Although OPEC+ has gradually eased production cut restrictions since April and plans to triple the increase in May, if the latest compensation plan is strictly implemented, theoretically OPEC+'s actual crude oil supply increase this year may be lower than market expectations and may largely offset the May increase. However, long-term overproduction by members such as Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria. Against the backdrop of simultaneous production increases and compensatory production cuts, internal contradictions within OPEC+ may further intensify, and the actual effect of compensatory production cuts remains highly uncertain. (Wenhua Comprehensive) SMM Daily Review: Aluminum prices adjusted narrowly, while secondary aluminum prices remained flat. [ADC12 Price Daily Review] [SMM MHP Daily Review] On April 22, Indonesian MHP prices rebounded. [SMM Nickel Daily Review] On April 22, refined nickel spot prices fell, with short-term prices supported. [SMM Nickel Sulphate Daily Review] On April 22, nickel sulphate prices remained stable. [SMM Rare Earth Daily Review] Traders' selling sentiment was high, and rare earth market prices were slightly weak. [SMM Daily Review] Silver prices were in the doldrums, with spot premiums remaining high.

SMM April 19 News: In the metal market, domestic base metals generally rose overnight, with SHFE tin up 0.48%. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, SHFE nickel dropped 0.48%, SHFE lead increased 0.39%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.43%, and SHFE zinc climbed 0.98%. Additionally, alumina fell 1.09%. In the ferrous metals series, iron ore rose 0.35%, stainless steel fell 0.27%, rebar slightly declined, and HRC slightly increased. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 0.9%, while coke fell 0.45%. Overseas, LME base metals were closed on April 18 due to Good Friday. In the precious metals sector, COMEX gold and COMEX silver trading was suspended all day on April 18 for Good Friday. COMEX gold rose for two consecutive weeks, up 2.98% this week; COMEX silver also rose for two weeks, up 1.99% this week. SHFE gold rose 0.36%, marking seven consecutive weeks of gains, up 5.09% this week; SHFE silver fell 0.07%, up 2.87% this week. As of 10:12 AM on April 19, overnight closing prices. Click to view SMM futures data dashboard. On the macro front, domestically, the State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Qiang discussed measures to stabilize employment and the economy, promoting high-quality development. The meeting emphasized stabilizing foreign trade and investment, supporting foreign enterprises' reinvestment in China, and promoting consumption in services like elderly care, childbirth, culture, and tourism. It also called for expanding effective investment and boosting private investment enthusiasm, continuing to stabilize the stock market, and promoting the healthy development of the real estate market. Click for details. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng met with NVIDIA President and CEO Jensen Huang on April 18. Gong welcomed global high-tech companies like NVIDIA to leverage China's vast market and Shanghai's high-level opening-up opportunities, deepening cooperation with local enterprises. Huang noted the importance of the Chinese market to NVIDIA, not only for its size but also for its quality customer base and industrial ecosystem. Shanghai is a key R&D base for NVIDIA, offering a favorable business and industrial environment. In the US dollar market, the US dollar index fell 0.21% to 99.24 overnight, marking four consecutive weeks of decline, down 0.56% this week. Due to the Easter holiday, the foreign exchange market remained open but was sluggish, with the dollar remaining weak. After falling below the 100 mark last week, the dollar repeatedly tested to return above 100 this week but faced significant pressure. Trade war concerns continued to erode market confidence in the dollar as a safe-haven asset. Market sentiment was cautious, influenced by tariff uncertainties, US trade negotiations, and central bank officials' comments. On monetary policy, Fed Chair Powell stated the Fed would wait for more economic data before deciding on rate adjustments, calling Trump's tariff plan a "fundamental change" with no historical precedent for businesses and economists to reference. (Huitong Finance) In other currencies, Australia's March labor data showed the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, but job growth fell short of expectations, increasing market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in May, with some traders even anticipating a 50 basis point cut. (Huitong Finance) Japan's March "core-core" CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) rose to 2.9% from 2.6% in February. National CPI rose 3.6% YoY, above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target for three consecutive years but slightly below February's 3.7%. The Bank of Japan is expected to keep rates at 0.5% at its May 1 policy meeting but may lower growth expectations due to global trade tensions. (Huitong Finance) On the macro front, next week will see the release of China's April one-year and five-year LPR, New Zealand's March trade balance, Australia's ANZ consumer confidence index for the week ending April 20, the eurozone's April consumer confidence index, France's April SPGI manufacturing PMI, Germany's April SPGI manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's April SPGI manufacturing PMI, the UK's April SPGI services PMI, the eurozone's February seasonally adjusted trade balance, the US April SPGI manufacturing PMI, US March seasonally adjusted new home sales annualized total, China's April 24 MLF rate, Germany's April IFO business climate index, the UK's April CBI industrial orders difference, Canada's April CFIB business barometer, US March durable goods orders MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19, US continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 19, US March existing home sales annualized total, the UK's April GfK consumer confidence index, Japan's April Tokyo CPI YoY, the UK's March seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, the UK's March seasonally adjusted core retail sales MoM, Canada's February retail sales MoM, and the US April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index final. Additionally, next week will feature a State Council Information Office press conference on the "Comprehensive Pilot Work Plan for Accelerating the Opening of the Service Industry," interviews with 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsby on CNBC, remarks by Fed Vice Chair Jefferson at the Economic Mobility Summit, the IMF's "World Economic Outlook" report, an interview with ECB President Lagarde on CNBC, remarks by 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, opening remarks by 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem and Fed Governor Waller at an event, the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting until April 24, remarks by Bank of England Governor Bailey at the IIF conference, the Fed's Beige Book, remarks by Swiss National Bank President Schlegel, and global financial leaders attending the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings until April 26. On April 21, the Sydney Stock Exchange, Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Paris Stock Exchange, Milan Stock Exchange, Madrid Stock Exchange, London Stock Exchange, LME, and Hong Kong Exchange will be closed for Easter. Overseas exchange holiday arrangements are as follows (all in Beijing time): In the crude oil market, both oil futures were suspended all day on April 18 for Good Friday. With only four trading days this week, the crude oil market was active. Weekly, US oil futures rose 3.66%, and Brent crude rose 4.77%. Oil prices were supported this week by market sentiment fluctuations driven by US President Trump's trade policies, new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, and OPEC+ production cut plans. Economic data and geopolitical events further shaped market dynamics. Notably, NYMEX New York crude oil May futures will complete floor trading at 2:30 AM and electronic trading at 5:00 AM on April 23 due to contract rollover. Please pay attention to exchange announcements for risk control. Additionally, some trading platforms' US oil contract expiration times are usually one day earlier than NYMEX's official schedule, so please be aware.