28 Apr 2026, 05:00 AM Gold steadies as traders await Iran talks and key central bank cues. Firmer dollar and higher oil prices limit bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Fed outlook and Hormuz risks keep gold locked in a narrow range. Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains, as investors weighed uncertain US-Iran diplomacy and a heavy week of central bank decisions against the pressure of a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices. Bullion found some support from persistent geopolitical risk, but that was offset by caution over the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold was broadly steady at $4,679.06 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $4,693.20. The market tone suggested investors were reluctant to build large positions before clearer signals emerged from Washington, Tehran and the world’s major central banks. US dollar and oil curb demand The immediate drag on gold came from currency and energy markets. The dollar strengthened as traders turned defensive after hopes for a quick breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations faded, while oil prices rose sharply on concern that tensions in the Middle East could keep supply routes under strain. That combination has proved difficult for bullion. Rising oil prices and a firmer dollar have recently weighed on gold by reinforcing a higher-for-longer view on interest rates and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Gold had already fallen to an over one-week low around $4,697 in recent sessions, highlighting how the rally has lost momentum as yields and the dollar strengthened. Investors who had chased the metal higher earlier in the month are now reassessing whether geopolitical anxiety alone is enough to drive a fresh leg up. For now, the answer appears to be no. So long as oil remains elevated and the dollar stays firm, gold may struggle to break convincingly higher even when demand for safety remains intact. Central banks take centre stage The other major restraint is monetary policy. Investors are awaiting a series of interest-rate decisions and official comments that could help define whether borrowing costs stay restrictive for longer than markets had expected. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the tone of its guidance will matter. A Reuters poll found that the Fed may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy prices feed inflation, reinforcing the view that policy easing could be pushed further out. That matters for gold because higher rates and firmer bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Attention is also on other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. With oil back at the centre of the inflation debate, investors will want to know whether policymakers see the recent energy shock as temporary noise or a more durable threat to price stability. Iran talks remain the key geopolitical driver Developments between Washington and Tehran continue to shape the broader market mood. President Donald Trump was reported to be dissatisfied with Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, raising doubts about the chances of a quick diplomatic resolution. That has kept traders focused on the risk of further disruption across the region, especially around Hormuz, where shipping uncertainty remains a major issue for oil markets. For gold, the geopolitical backdrop is supportive in theory but complicated in practice. Safe-haven demand tends to rise when conflict intensifies, yet the same tensions can also push oil higher, lift inflation expectations and strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated. That is why bullion has stayed range-bound rather than breaking decisively in either direction. The result is a market caught between fear and restraint: enough anxiety to keep gold supported, but not enough to overpower the combined headwinds of a stronger dollar, higher yields and costly energy. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/28/why-are-gold-prices-failing-to-surge-despite-rising-global-uncertainty/

29 Apr 2026, 04:54 AM' Gold steadies near an April low ahead of the Fed decision. Oil and Iran tensions keep inflation risks in sharp focus. Powell’s comments may shape bullion’s next near-term move. Gold held broadly steady on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, with the metal pinned near its lowest level since early April by a stronger dollar, elevated oil prices and stalled diplomacy over Iran. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,598.45 an ounce in early trade, after falling to its weakest level since April 2 in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery were also little changed, rising 0.1% to $4,612.10. The market’s hesitation reflects a difficult balance for bullion. Gold is still benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty , but that support has been offset by a renewed rise in oil prices, which is feeding inflation concerns and weakening the case for any near-term easing from the Fed. As a result, traders have become more cautious about pushing prices higher before hearing how Powell frames the inflation outlook and the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Fed outlook takes centre stage Investors widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting later on Wednesday. That means the emphasis will fall squarely on Powell’s tone and whether he signals any growing concern that higher energy prices could delay rate cuts. Reuters reported this week that central banks were taking centre stage as inflation data tested market expectations for policy easing, with oil-driven price pressure again becoming a key variable. That backdrop matters because gold has increasingly traded less like a pure safe-haven asset and more like an interest-rate-sensitive instrument. If Powell suggests the Fed is prepared to stay on hold for longer, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar could put further pressure on bullion. By contrast, any hint that the central bank is willing to look through the latest oil shock could give the metal some relief. Iran conflict and oil keep pressure on inflation The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Efforts to end the Iran conflict were described as being at an impasse after President Donald Trump signalled dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest proposal. That has kept oil prices under upward pressure as traders worry about supply disruption and the broader consequences of instability in the Middle East. Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil prices closed up nearly 3% as persistent concern over supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz outweighed other market developments. The World Bank also said energy prices could surge 24% in 2026 to their highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even if the most acute disruption from the Middle East conflict fades in May. For gold, that creates a paradox: geopolitical stress supports haven demand, but the associated rise in oil also strengthens inflation expectations and reduces the likelihood of lower interest rates. Near-term tone remains fragile Analysts say that leaves gold vulnerable in the near term. Standard Chartered said this week that the metal looked fragile in the short run, even though structural support from geopolitical tension, tariffs and trade uncertainty should help it regain footing over time. Reuters’ latest poll also suggested the longer-term bull case remains intact, with gold expected to average $4,916 an ounce in 2026 despite the recent setback. For now, however, the market is in wait-and-see mode. Bullion is close enough to recent lows to attract bargain hunters, but not yet supported by a clear enough macro signal to break higher. Until Powell speaks and markets get a cleaner read on the Fed’s reaction to energy-driven inflation, gold is likely to remain trapped between haven demand and rate pressure. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/29/gold-at-april-lows-will-feds-next-move-spark-a-comeback/

Gold edged higher on Thursday as a softer dollar helped support prices, even as optimism over a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran improved broader market sentiment and reduced some demand for traditional havens.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

The Trump admin­is­tra­tion yes­ter­day moved to quell tur­moil in the US gold mar­ket after the sur­prise impos­i­tion of tar­iffs on imports of 1kg and 100-ounce bars sent gold futures to a record high.

According to a report from Mining.com, Harmony Gold, South Africa's largest gold producer, has agreed to acquire MAC Copper for US$1.03 billion, accelerating the company's strategic shift towards copper through a key asset in Australia. The all-cash acquisition will give Harmony full ownership of MAC Copper's sole asset, the CSA copper mine located in central-western New South Wales. CSA is Australia's highest-grade and oldest operating copper mine, dating back 150 years. With a mining depth reaching 1,900 meters, CSA is one of Australia's deepest underground mines. Harmony has offered to acquire MAC's shares at US$12.25 per share, a 20.7% premium over MAC's latest closing price on the New York Stock Exchange. MAC's board of directors unanimously supports the acquisition. Like Newmont and Barrick Gold, Harmony is also implementing a diversification strategy. The company is considering entering the copper market, a metal crucial for electric vehicles and power grid infrastructure. This transaction will expand Harmony's copper assets in Australia, following its purchase of the Eva copper mine project in Queensland in 2022. The Johannesburg-based mining company aims to bring Eva into production by 2028. With the addition of CSA and Eva, Harmony hopes to achieve an annual copper production of 100,000 mt within five years. Last year, CSA alone produced 41,000 mt of copper. Outside of Australia, Harmony also owns the Hidden Valley gold mine in Papua New Guinea and co-owns the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold mine with Newmont. The company is moving away from a single-focus gold mining model, as mining metals in South Africa has become increasingly complex and costly.

Driven by multiple positive factors, most Hong Kong-listed gold stocks strengthened. As of press time, Qomolangma Gold (01815.HK), Chifeng Gold (06693.HK), Zijin Mining (02899.HK), and Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 13.22%, 7.60%, 7%, and 6.59%, respectively. Note: Performance of gold stocks On the news front, the UK, France, and Canada jointly pressured Israel to pause its military operations in Gaza, with the UK announcing the suspension of trade agreement negotiations with Israel. Additionally, reports indicated that US intelligence had discovered that Israel was planning to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. The escalating geopolitical tensions directly stimulated market risk-averse sentiment. Currently, COMEX gold prices have broken through the $3,300 mark, rising 0.68% as of press time, to trade at $3,335. Note: Performance of COMEX gold In addition to the above news, the fundamentals of gold are strongly supported. Surge in China's imports: In April, China's gold imports reached 127.5 mt, surging 73% MoM, hitting an 11-month high, reflecting robust domestic investment and consumer demand. Global central banks' gold purchases continue: The World Gold Council pointed out that in April, the Shanghai gold price denominated in RMB rose by 6.9%, the highest for the same period in nearly 19 years. Central banks' continuous gold purchases provide support for long-term prices. How do institutions view the subsequent performance of gold prices? In a recent report, Goldman Sachs' precious metals team maintained its forecast targets of $3,700/oz for gold prices by the end of 2025 and $4,000/oz by mid-2026. This judgment is based on two core factors: The combined impact of the US Fed's delayed interest rate cut and the decreased probability of an economic recession (the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling from 45% to 35%) on the 2026 target price is only $15/oz, with the terminal interest rate expectation still anchored at 3.5%-3.75%; the mild shift of private sector asset allocation towards gold offsets the slight negative impact of improved cyclical macroeconomic conditions. Founder Securities believes that the current gold price is already at a relatively high level. Meanwhile, with the recent easing of external events such as the trade war, it may trigger some investors to take profits at high levels or central banks to slow down their gold purchases in the short term, leading to a phased correction in gold prices. However, from a medium and long-term perspective, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar credit, the initiation of the US Fed's interest rate cut cycle, and the continuous increase in gold purchases by global central banks, gold is expected to continue its long-term upward trend after short-term adjustments.

International gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, and the "Lujiazui Financial Salon" closely follows market hot topics. On April 19, the eighth session of the gold-themed event successfully concluded in Lujiazui, Pudong, Shanghai. This session of the salon focused on "Gold Market Investment Layout and the Enhancement of RMB Gold Pricing Power—Opportunities and Challenges in the Global Context." Multiple guests, combining rich theoretical and practical experience, engaged in in-depth discussions and exchanges, offering suggestions for gold market investment and enhancing pricing capabilities. Efforts to diversify the participants in the gold market continue, attracting more institutions at home and abroad. Gold might be one of the best-performing assets in recent years. In 2024, international gold prices rose by over 26%, setting new historical highs 40 times throughout the year. In Q1 2025, gold prices increased by about 18%, with the international spot gold price currently surpassing $3,300 per ounce. In February 2025, the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Notice on Pilot Projects for Insurance Funds Investing in Gold," officially allowing the first batch of ten pilot companies to participate in gold investments. Regulatory authorities are supporting market development and actively promoting the diversification of participants in the gold market. Su Gang, Vice President, Chief Investment Officer, and Financial Director of Taiping Group, stated in his keynote speech that insurance funds investing in gold is of great significance. On one hand, it optimizes asset allocation structures, increases portfolio liquidity, diversifies portfolio risks, and enhances overall portfolio risk-adjusted returns. On the other hand, insurance funds participating in gold investments help bring more medium and long-term funds to the gold market, strengthening the RMB gold pricing power. Based on practical experience, Su Gang suggested timely opening of gold inquiry forwards and gold futures investment qualifications to better hedge risks, reduce price volatility risks, and better meet the absolute return requirements of insurance companies. Additionally, since insurance institutions invest in gold for medium and long-term asset allocation purposes and mainly hold long positions with long holding periods, they face high storage costs. Su Gang recommended moderately reducing the storage fees of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's custody vaults. Insurance institutions should also organize more peer exchanges and investment training activities to improve gold investment research capabilities. Xu Huizhu, General Manager of the Investor Education and Market Promotion Department of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, pointed out that the pilot project for insurance funds investing in gold not only helps optimize the asset allocation structure of insurance funds but also better leverages the linkage between the opening of the gold market and the development of the insurance industry. It has positive significance for enhancing the agglomeration of the RMB gold market, improving the pricing function of the RMB gold market, and boosting the level of Shanghai as an international financial center. Based on experience in gold market construction, Xu Huizhu stated that domestic gold exchanges should actively contribute to the elevation of Shanghai as an international financial center, deepen the functions of financial factor markets, and attract more domestic and foreign financial institutions and medium and long-term funds to participate in China's gold market. At the same time, efforts should be made to promote the ecological construction of the gold market, strengthen comprehensive risk management systems, enhance dynamic market monitoring and analysis, and reasonably guide market supply and demand. Zhao Wenjian, a senior expert in the Precious Metals Business Department of ICBC, believes that on the basis of allowing insurance funds to allocate gold assets, China should explore investment models for long-term funds such as pension funds and social security funds in gold, and continue to promote the diversification of participants in the domestic gold market. At the same time, the scope and level of gold physical financing among financial institutions should be expanded to enhance market liquidity. Gold Pricing Enters a New Cycle In terms of enhancing the RMB's gold pricing power, Zhao Wenjian suggested continuing to expand the international board of gold exchanges and attracting more international members. At the same time, the application scenarios of "Shanghai Gold" should be broadened to make it the anchor for pricing various gold trading products in China. Additionally, financial institutions should be guided to provide comprehensive financial services for Chinese enterprises' overseas gold resource acquisitions, enhancing China's gold security capabilities. Xu Zhiyan, Chief Index Investment Officer, Assistant General Manager, and Fund Manager of Huaan Fund, believes that in addition to risk resistance, inflation hedging, and currency over-issuance hedging, the scarcity, profitability, and low or even negative correlation with other assets such as stocks are also worth noting. Adding gold assets to the asset allocation portfolio can broaden the efficient frontier, to some extent diversify risks, and increase returns. After 2022, the traditional negative correlation between gold and the US dollar's real interest rate has become less obvious. Xu Zhiyan pointed out that in recent years, due to central bank gold purchases, gold has risen in sync with the US dollar and US bond interest rates during the interest rate hike cycle, and gold has shown excess returns relative to US bonds, entering a new cycle. In the future, factors such as the risk of US recession, currency over-issuance, and deglobalization policies will benefit gold. Regarding the analytical framework for gold, Zhu Shanying, a senior researcher at the Macro Research Group of CITIC Futures Research Institute, stated that the decline in the US dollar's credit has historically supported the long-term bull market for gold, including the period of high inflation in the US from the 1970s to the 1980s, the impact of the 9/11 event in the early 2000s, and the bursting of the internet bubble, all corresponding to the decline in the US dollar index and the bull market for gold. "Of course, the contraction of US dollar credit is a grand narrative, and this grand narrative also needs to be supported by small-cycle logic." Zhu Shanying pointed out that different trading themes have emerged during the gold price rise since 2022, such as the US banking crisis in March 2023, and the themes of US secondary inflation, recession, and expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts in 2024. In the future, the expectation of US stagflation will strengthen in the short term. From a long-term perspective, the continuous contraction of US dollar credit, whether based on the US's own bond over-issuance or the trend of deglobalization, constitutes the foundation of the gold bull market. Continuously Improve the Gold Market and Institutional System, Enrich Gold Product Supply In the industry dialogue titled "From Improving Asset Allocation to Enhancing Pricing Power: Prospects for the Development of the Gold Trading Market," guests further discussed how to build a first-class Chinese gold market and how to enhance the RMB's voice in international gold price pricing. Xu Huizhu stated that to build a world-class gold exchange and promote the high-level opening of the gold market, on one hand, the market system and institutional system of the exchange's international board should be continuously enriched and improved. On the other hand, the construction of offshore products should be improved, and interconnectivity should be strengthened to provide more gold products and investment services for the return of offshore RMB funds. At the same time, the infrastructure system construction of the international board should be improved, and participation in the exchange and interaction of international standards and rules should be enhanced. Zhao Wenjian believes that after insurance funds join the Chinese gold market, the structure of gold market participants has been enriched. The characteristics of medium and long-term insurance funds are conducive to stabilizing the gold market, and they will also have a good effect on expanding the depth of the market, while enhancing the attractiveness of the Chinese gold market to international funds. To meet the preferences of different investors, Zhao Wenjian suggested further improving the supply capacity of gold trading products and the overall service capability of the gold market. From the perspective of asset allocation, Xu Zhiyan pointed out that gold ETFs bear the mission of "storing gold among the people." To help clients achieve value preservation and appreciation, asset management companies should do a good job in judging the price trends of gold assets and strengthen investment education. In addition, insurance and other funds choosing ETFs for gold allocation have domestic institutional advantages. Enhancing the RMB's pricing power for gold, gold ETFs can also play a more active and important role. After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, Zhu Shanying believes that the combination of policies after Trump's election will lead to a potential economic downturn and inflation in the US, putting the US Fed in a dilemma. As long as the US Fed does not raise interest rates, this stagflation situation will be favorable for gold prices in the medium and short term. The "Lujiazui Financial Salon" is guided by the Shanghai Municipal Financial Office and the People's Government of Pudong New District, and hosted by the Secretariat of the "Lujiazui Financial Salon," with media support from Yicai and Caixin. This series of events will build a regular exchange platform that echoes the "Lujiazui Forum," through institutionalized, scenario-based, and internationalized operations, continuously outputting the "Pudong Wisdom" of financial reform, deeply empowering the high-quality development of Pudong's economy, and fully promoting the construction of the core area of Shanghai as an international financial center to a new height.

Around 16:00 Beijing time on Wednesday (April 16), just as the US pre-market session began, spot gold prices surpassed $3,300 per ounce and reached an intraday high of $3,317.82 around 16:18. This marked the third time in nearly five trading days that spot gold prices hit a record high, with daily gains exceeding 2%, peaking at 2.7%, and a cumulative increase of over 25% year-to-date. Meanwhile, the main US gold futures contract briefly rose to $3,334.2 per ounce, also setting a new high. Driven by the rise in gold, US gold mining stocks strengthened overall in pre-market trading, with Newmont Mining up 3.1%, Barrick Gold up over 3.6%, and Harmony Gold up more than 7.6%. Media analysis suggests that the escalating trade war has raised concerns about a global economic recession, and the unpredictability of tariffs announced by Washington has made it difficult for investors to establish long-term positions. In this environment, gold is seen as the most favored safe-haven asset. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, stated, "Factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar and ongoing safe-haven demand are favorable for gold." The day before, US President Trump signed an executive order to investigate national security risks posed by the US's reliance on imported critical minerals and their derivatives—a move seen as a prelude to imposing tariffs, which could further escalate the trade war. Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, noted, "Increased tariff uncertainty, a tougher US government stance, and tariffs affecting goods transported through third countries could harm global supply chains," all of which support gold prices. Brian Lan, Managing Director of GoldSilver Central in Singapore, said, "As long as uncertainty persists, gold will continue to strengthen." Traders are also betting that the US Fed will cut interest rates at least three times this year, with monetary easing generally benefiting precious metals. ANZ believes that safe-haven buying of gold has not yet accelerated. The bank raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,600 per ounce and its six-month gold price forecast to $3,500 per ounce. Last Friday, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that gold prices would rise to $3,700 per ounce by the end of this year and reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026.

After fluctuating at highs for two days, gold prices surged again today. Spot gold hit a historic high of $3,300 per ounce for the first time, soaring by $70 intraday, marking the third record-breaking session in nearly five trading days. Domestic gold prices also rose significantly, with many brand gold stores reporting prices for pure gold jewelry exceeding 1,000 yuan per gram, setting a new record. An industry insider told Caixin reporters, "The current prices have left the industry in a passive position." During a weekday visit to the Shuibei gold trading market in Shenzhen, Caixin reporters observed that customers were hesitant, whether for recycling or gold jewelry consumption. A stall owner said, "Gold prices are too high, and the recent foot traffic is indeed not as strong as before, making business more challenging." A representative from a gold wholesale company, a member of the Shanghai Gold Exchange, also noted that gold shipments had declined significantly compared to last week. On April 16, data showed that spot gold prices reached $3,317.89 per ounce, with an intraday increase of over 2%. The most-traded US gold futures contract also hit a new high of $3,334.2 per ounce. Domestic gold prices were also driven higher. On April 16, the most-traded gold futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to 782 yuan per gram, setting a new record. Spot gold prices denominated in yuan have risen by approximately 26% year-to-date, nearing last year's full-year increase. Brand gold stores such as Chow Sang Sang (00116.HK), Lao Feng Xiang (600612.SH), and Luk Fook Jewelry reported prices for pure gold jewelry exceeding 1,000 yuan. For example, Lao Feng Xiang's pure gold jewelry was quoted at 1,005 yuan per gram today, up by 16 yuan from the previous day. "The current rise in gold prices is essentially a reflection of the decline in US dollar credibility, the depreciation of the US dollar, and concerns about the stability of the global currency exchange system," said Song Yunming, chief analyst at Asaming International Economic Consulting, to Caixin reporters. He noted that Trump's tariff policies have been erratic, and the unresolved US-China tariff issue has drawn more attention, leading to a high consensus in the market about a global economic recession, which has kept gold prices elevated. From a market perspective, Asian gold buying power has been particularly strong this year, and China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for five consecutive months, with the likelihood of further increases, providing strong support for gold prices. The rapidly fluctuating market has significantly impacted gold recycling and end-use consumption. Caixin reporters observed that brand gold stores had few customers, with the high gold prices being a major factor suppressing consumption, in addition to the current off-season. In terms of gold recycling, a gold shop owner said that most customers are in a wait-and-see mode. Sellers are concerned that prices will rise further after selling, while customers who have already purchased and held gold are worried about a sharp price drop. "Recycling business has declined due to rising gold prices," said the representative from the gold wholesale company. There are two types of sellers: individuals, who would have sold earlier if they were concerned about prices, and jewelry stores clearing inventory, but with gold prices rising for so long, they are hesitant to restock, leaving little to clear. Additionally, with gold prices climbing, the funds available for purchasing gold are limited, reducing the amount that can be bought. For example, where 10 million yuan could previously buy 30 kilograms, it now only buys 12 kilograms, resulting in lower profits. With gold prices remaining high, how are gold-listed companies responding? Chow Tai Fook (002345.SZ) previously told Caixin reporters, "Regarding gold price fluctuations, our brand has a comprehensive supply chain management system and a flexible market strategy mechanism. We will continuously and dynamically assess industry trends, balancing cost changes and consumer experience through product innovation, intangible cultural heritage craftsmanship upgrades, and exclusive member benefits." A spokesperson for Chow Tai Fook (01929.HK) Jewelry Group told Caixin reporters, "Facing record-high gold prices, we will adjust our product portfolio according to market demand, offering different product series to meet customer needs, such as flexibly using various jewelry materials to create culturally rich and fashionable designs. We will also apply techniques like 5D hard gold to 'lighten' products while maintaining design and quality, providing more cost-effective options." Regarding whether the company will increase gold product prices again and how to mitigate the impact of rapid gold price increases on profits, the Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group spokesperson said the company has a robust risk management mechanism to address gold price fluctuations and evaluates the prices of priced gold products at least every six months, considering factors such as production cost changes, market demand, and strategic positioning. Looking ahead, Song Yunming said, "If the US and China can return to the negotiating table on tariff issues, and the Russia-Ukraine issue can be resolved, sending positive signals to the market, gold prices may see a significant correction. Currently, I expect the year-end closing price for London gold to be between $3,200 and $3,400 per ounce."