Jun 01, 2026, 00:43 AM Gold slips as stronger dollar and oil rally blunt haven demand. Traders await Trump decision on Iran ceasefire as Fed risks grow anew. Silver, platinum and palladium rise even as bullion loses fresh momentum. Gold fell in early trading on Monday as a stronger dollar and a jump in oil prices dulled demand for bullion, with investors weighing the prospect of a longer Middle East conflict and its implications for inflation and US monetary policy. Spot gold declined 0.4% to $4,518.09 an ounce as of 0306 GMT, leaving it down 0.1% for the week. US gold futures for August delivery dropped 1% to $4,548.90 an ounce. The move came as the dollar firmed, making bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies. Oil also climbed more than 2% , trading above $93 a barrel, adding to concerns that energy-driven inflation could remain sticky if geopolitical tensions persist. Gold, which pays no interest, often comes under pressure when the dollar rises or when markets price in a firmer interest-rate outlook. That dynamic was on display on Monday, even as the metal retained support from geopolitical uncertainty. Traders await Trump decision The market’s attention is centred on US President Donald Trump’s expected decision on a proposal to extend a ceasefire between Iran and its regional enemies for several months. Negotiations between Iran and the US remain difficult, with the two sides still far apart on key terms. A longer ceasefire could ease some of the pressure on energy markets and reduce demand for defensive assets. Failure to reach an agreement, however, could keep oil prices elevated and reinforce inflation concerns. Tim Waterer, market analyst at KCM Trade, said investors were waiting for clearer signals from Washington before taking stronger positions in gold. The uncertainty has left bullion caught between competing forces. On one side, geopolitical risk continues to support demand for safe-haven assets. On the other, a stronger dollar and higher oil prices are prompting traders to reassess the path for US interest rates. Fed inflation risk in focus Federal Reserve officials are also watching the conflict for signs that higher energy costs could feed into broader inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman has flagged the risk that a prolonged shock could make inflation more persistent, potentially affecting the central bank’s policy outlook. That matters for gold because expectations of tighter policy tend to raise bond yields and reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets. Any sign that the Fed may need to keep rates higher for longer, or even consider a more restrictive stance, could cap bullion’s gains. Still, analysts say the longer-term case for gold has not disappeared. They said that metal could still reach $5,500 by the end of 2026 if several supportive factors align, including lower oil prices, a weaker dollar, stronger central-bank buying and continued demand for gold as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risk. Other precious metals rise Elsewhere in precious metals, silver gained 0.4% to $75.58 an ounce and was up 0.6% for the week. Platinum rose 1.1% to $1,937.30 an ounce, taking its year-to-date gain to 13.3%. Palladium advanced 1.2% to $1,370.50 an ounce and was up 6.2% so far this year. For now, gold remains sensitive to shifts in the dollar, oil prices and developments around the Middle East ceasefire talks. Until investors have more clarity on the duration of the conflict and its inflationary impact, bullion is likely to trade less on safe-haven demand alone and more on how energy prices feed into the Fed’s rate debate. Source： https://invezz.com/news/2026/06/01/will-gold-hit-5500-as-oil-shock-and-fed-rate-risks-unsettle-markets/

Published: May 19, 2026 - 10:43 PM Updated: May 19, 2026 - 10:55 PM (Kitco News) – Despite Iran war headwinds, gold prices are still on track to reach a fresh all-time high of $5,800 per ounce before year-end, while silver’s supply deficit and dual demand make it the better medium-term bet, according to Nicky Shiels, head of research and metals strategy at MKS PAMP, Shiels said in a recent interview that the Iran war has “reshaped, but not derailed” the bull case for gold, and she expects the yellow metal will ultimately gain 30% in 2026. “Gold is still expected to average $4,500/oz in 2026, with a new higher all-time high of $5,800/oz a fair target for the second half of the year,” she said. “Gold has morphed from a debasement trade into an inverse oil proxy during the current conflict, and while that correlation has weakened recently, the stagflationary backdrop comes back into play,” Shiels added. “The near-term thesis is one of consolidation, but the longer-term one reinforces the bull case for gold: fiscal dominance fears, US dollar weakness longer-term, and geopolitical risk remain in play.” In the near term, she said that “gold prices below $5000/oz are fair given current oil levels and softening physical demand into the summer, but $5000+ should be the range in 2H’26.” Looking further out, Shiels is even more bullish. She said that it is “unlikely, but possible” that gold prices will reach $10,000 per ounce by 2030. “It’s theoretically possible, as real assets continue to debase higher,” she said. “A lot would have to happen for gold prices to reach five figures, including a substantial rotation from US institutional investors out of equities.” “There are plenty of narratives explaining how one obtains big numbers, where most look at Gold through a debasement lens and adjust for what prices need to be (keeping all other inputs stable) to reach historical relative values vs the stock market, vs % of US debt, as vs % of foreign-held portion of US debt,” Shiels explained. “For example, gold’s global market cap (value of above-ground stocks) is around 20 per cent of the value of the global stock market. Historically, it can be worth 40 per cent, simply implying Gold at $10,000/oz (with no drawdown in stock market value).” She also benchmarked gold’s potential against U.S. government debt to arrive at an even more dramatic price projection. “Today’s US Gold holdings backs only 3 per cent of US government debt; back in the previous wartime era (the last debt expansion era), WWII, in which ~50 per cent of federal debt was Gold-backed; a mere 10 per cent of the US’ debt pile today equates to $15,000/oz,” Shiels said. “The value of the US’ Gold (81100 tonnes) is 14 per cent of all foreign-held US debt; the long-term average has been 50 per cent, which implies ~$18,000/oz.” She added that the scenario “remains a tail, not the base case, but it’s not an unreasonable tail.” Turning to silver, Shiels said that while gold still has the better outlook for 2026, the gray metal could outperform it in the longer term on the back of ongoing structural supply deficits. “The January high above $120/oz can absolutely be revisited, but it’s contingent on gold making new all-time highs,” she said. “Silver is still nowhere near its inflation-adjusted highs of around $200/oz (when Gold took out its 1980 inflation-adjusted high of $3600/oz back in September 2025), which requires a lot to come together (retail, institutional investment, industrial & physical flows re-engaging simultaneously).” Shiels said the Iran war has generated significant headwinds for silver, with the oil shock creating a “stagflationary backdrop” and raising fears of industrial demand destruction. “Silver, as the ‘high-beta’ precious metal, is caught between its monetary/investment and industrial identities,” she said. “Investment demand has softened while industrial demand faces macro pressure and fears over a growth slowdown.” “The core bear case [revolves around] a recession or prolonged stagflationary environment that would hit industrial demand (which accounts for over half of silver consumption) hard, particularly if the green energy buildout slows,” she explained. “That risk can overwhelm investment inflows and keep silver trapped in the lower half of its range, $50 – $70/oz.” But despite these risks to the outlook, Shiels believes silver is the precious metal with the higher upside over the longer term. “Gold has stronger institutional underpinning, resilient CB demand, clearer macro catalysts with a ramp up of stagflationary risks, and less vulnerability to an industrial demand shock,” she noted. “But silver is nowhere near its inflation-adjusted highs of around $200/oz; it faces persistent structural supply deficits where supply is slow to respond, and once both retail and institutional investment flows re-engage simultaneously, the squeeze potential is significant.” “Long-term, silver’s leverage to the hard-asset bull market is its biggest asset.” Moving to the platinum group metals, Shiels said the macro backdrop is weighing heavily on both platinum and palladium, but platinum is better positioned to launch a breakout due to ongoing supply deficits and strong hybrid vehicle demand. “January’s move in both metals reflected a genuine confluence of factors — physical tightness, tariff-driven trade re-ratings, supply disruption (particularly Russian palladium redirected away from the US), and strategic stockpiling — it wasn’t pure speculation,” she said. “However, the macro backdrop since then (oil shock, demand destruction fears, auto sector uncertainty) has weighed heavily.” “Platinum has stronger structural support — persistent multi-year deficits, growing hybrid autocatalyst demand, resilient industrial demand, steady jewellery demand, and a new investor base with the launch of futures contracts in China — so it’s better positioned to break out of the range,” she added. “Palladium is more policy-driven and heavily dependent on auto demand.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-05-19/gold-will-hit-5800-ath-december-silver-has-highest-upside-platinum-has

8. May 2026 The silver market is showing its dynamic side again this Thursday. Spot silver (XAG/USD) jumps around 2 percent higher during the day and is trading clearly above the psychologically important $80 mark . The white metal is thus continuing its recovery following the sharp pullback of recent weeks—and is currently even outperforming its big brother gold. From All-Time High to Correction—and Back Again To put the recent strength into perspective, it’s worth looking back: In January 2026, silver marked a new all-time high at $121.64 per troy ounce, definitively breaking through the long-standing $50 resistance zone. But after this spectacular breakout came disillusionment: with the onset of the Strait of Hormuz conflict in late February, the precious metal came under massive pressure. By early May, silver had plunged around 22 percent from its highs, driven by concerns that central banks might maintain their restrictive course longer in light of rising energy prices. The current movement is noteworthy in this respect: according to Kitco , the silver price rose to $79.92 per ounce on May 8, 2026—a gain of 2.09 percent from the previous day. Silver futures climbed in parallel to $80.625. This is more than a technical reflex: silver is thus trading significantly above the early May level, when the troy ounce was still trading below $73. The Dual Leverage: Safe-Haven and Industrial Metal What distinguishes silver from gold is the metal’s hybrid character. Around half of global silver demand comes from industrial applications—from solar modules to electronics to medical technology. This dual nature explains why silver swings more violently in both directions than gold: in phases of high risk aversion, the safe-haven effect takes hold; in phases of economic expansion, industrial demand picks up. The structural drivers in particular remain intact. Growth impulses continue to come from photovoltaics, electromobility, semiconductors, and AI infrastructure. Several analysts expect industrial demand to exceed supply in 2026 as well. Added to this is a scarcity component the market is underestimating: the lead time for new silver mines is often seven to ten years, and since January 2026, Chinese export restrictions have additionally burdened global supply. Investment demand also remains robust. According to the latest World Silver Survey data, global physical investment demand in 2025/early 2026 was at a multi-year high—driven primarily by Indian investors and a notable shift in European precious metals trading toward silver. The Gold-Silver Ratio Sends Mixed Signals The development of the gold-silver ratio is intriguing, traditionally one of the most important valuation indicators in the precious metals market. Currently, the ratio stands at around 61, after temporarily falling to a low of 43. The historical average ranges between 65 and 75. In other words: silver is neither dramatically undervalued nor clearly overvalued relative to gold. The pronounced relative undervaluation that was the central driver for silver bulls in recent years has largely been worked off. This observation calls for caution. LBBW strategists, for example, argue that sustained outperformance of silver versus gold is rather unlikely given the weak global economy and high industrial dependence. Those investing in silver are therefore no longer just buying the hope of ratio normalization, but are increasingly betting on a classic cyclical upswing. Technical Analysis: The Next Critical Levels From a technical perspective, silver stands at a technically delicate point. The first resistance runs at $81.81, followed by $82.50; a breakthrough would unlock the next price target at $84. On the downside, the central support lies at $73.14, followed by $72 and $70.90. As long as silver holds above the $73 region, the overall picture remains constructive. Rally Launch or Overextended Reflex? The honest answer is: both are possible—and that’s precisely what makes silver so attractive yet risky in the current environment. Arguments for a new upward thrust include structural supply scarcity, sustained investment demand, and the prospect that the Fed could return to loose monetary policy in the medium term. Once gold resumes its uptrend, silver historically tends to follow at significantly higher speed—the classic high-beta pattern. Arguments against include the fragile geopolitical situation in the Persian Gulf, the still restrictive monetary policy, and the risk that an economic slowdown could dampen industrial demand. The recent price behavior—a loss of around 22 percent in just a few weeks—also demonstrates how painful this metal’s volatility can be. Conclusion for investors: Silver remains the most exciting precious metal in 2026—but also the most demanding. The recent rebound above $80 is an initial bullish signal that makes a technical bottom formation more likely. However, a sustainable trend reversal requires breaking the $82 mark. Those entering should be aware that short-term fluctuations of 5 to 10 percent in either direction are normal. For strategically oriented precious metals investors, this changes nothing about the fundamental attractiveness—on the contrary: corrections like those of recent weeks have historically often been the better entry windows. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-back-above-critical-level-why-the-metal-is-currently-outperforming-gold/

28 Apr 2026, 05:00 AM Gold steadies as traders await Iran talks and key central bank cues. Firmer dollar and higher oil prices limit bullion’s safe-haven appeal. Fed outlook and Hormuz risks keep gold locked in a narrow range. Gold prices were little changed on Tuesday after giving up earlier gains, as investors weighed uncertain US-Iran diplomacy and a heavy week of central bank decisions against the pressure of a stronger dollar and firmer oil prices. Bullion found some support from persistent geopolitical risk, but that was offset by caution over the outlook for interest rates. Spot gold was broadly steady at $4,679.06 an ounce, while US gold futures were little changed at $4,693.20. The market tone suggested investors were reluctant to build large positions before clearer signals emerged from Washington, Tehran and the world’s major central banks. US dollar and oil curb demand The immediate drag on gold came from currency and energy markets. The dollar strengthened as traders turned defensive after hopes for a quick breakthrough in US-Iran negotiations faded, while oil prices rose sharply on concern that tensions in the Middle East could keep supply routes under strain. That combination has proved difficult for bullion. Rising oil prices and a firmer dollar have recently weighed on gold by reinforcing a higher-for-longer view on interest rates and reducing the appeal of non-yielding assets. Gold had already fallen to an over one-week low around $4,697 in recent sessions, highlighting how the rally has lost momentum as yields and the dollar strengthened. Investors who had chased the metal higher earlier in the month are now reassessing whether geopolitical anxiety alone is enough to drive a fresh leg up. For now, the answer appears to be no. So long as oil remains elevated and the dollar stays firm, gold may struggle to break convincingly higher even when demand for safety remains intact. Central banks take centre stage The other major restraint is monetary policy. Investors are awaiting a series of interest-rate decisions and official comments that could help define whether borrowing costs stay restrictive for longer than markets had expected. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, but the tone of its guidance will matter. A Reuters poll found that the Fed may have to wait at least six months before cutting rates as war-driven energy prices feed inflation, reinforcing the view that policy easing could be pushed further out. That matters for gold because higher rates and firmer bond yields increase the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Attention is also on other major central banks, including the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. With oil back at the centre of the inflation debate, investors will want to know whether policymakers see the recent energy shock as temporary noise or a more durable threat to price stability. Iran talks remain the key geopolitical driver Developments between Washington and Tehran continue to shape the broader market mood. President Donald Trump was reported to be dissatisfied with Iran’s latest nuclear proposal, raising doubts about the chances of a quick diplomatic resolution. That has kept traders focused on the risk of further disruption across the region, especially around Hormuz, where shipping uncertainty remains a major issue for oil markets. For gold, the geopolitical backdrop is supportive in theory but complicated in practice. Safe-haven demand tends to rise when conflict intensifies, yet the same tensions can also push oil higher, lift inflation expectations and strengthen the case for keeping rates elevated. That is why bullion has stayed range-bound rather than breaking decisively in either direction. The result is a market caught between fear and restraint: enough anxiety to keep gold supported, but not enough to overpower the combined headwinds of a stronger dollar, higher yields and costly energy. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/28/why-are-gold-prices-failing-to-surge-despite-rising-global-uncertainty/

29 Apr 2026, 04:54 AM' Gold steadies near an April low ahead of the Fed decision. Oil and Iran tensions keep inflation risks in sharp focus. Powell’s comments may shape bullion’s next near-term move. Gold held broadly steady on Wednesday as investors waited for the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision and comments from Chair Jerome Powell, with the metal pinned near its lowest level since early April by a stronger dollar, elevated oil prices and stalled diplomacy over Iran. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,598.45 an ounce in early trade, after falling to its weakest level since April 2 in the previous session. US gold futures for June delivery were also little changed, rising 0.1% to $4,612.10. The market’s hesitation reflects a difficult balance for bullion. Gold is still benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty , but that support has been offset by a renewed rise in oil prices, which is feeding inflation concerns and weakening the case for any near-term easing from the Fed. As a result, traders have become more cautious about pushing prices higher before hearing how Powell frames the inflation outlook and the economic impact of the Iran conflict. Fed outlook takes centre stage Investors widely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting later on Wednesday. That means the emphasis will fall squarely on Powell’s tone and whether he signals any growing concern that higher energy prices could delay rate cuts. Reuters reported this week that central banks were taking centre stage as inflation data tested market expectations for policy easing, with oil-driven price pressure again becoming a key variable. That backdrop matters because gold has increasingly traded less like a pure safe-haven asset and more like an interest-rate-sensitive instrument. If Powell suggests the Fed is prepared to stay on hold for longer, higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar could put further pressure on bullion. By contrast, any hint that the central bank is willing to look through the latest oil shock could give the metal some relief. Iran conflict and oil keep pressure on inflation The geopolitical backdrop remains tense. Efforts to end the Iran conflict were described as being at an impasse after President Donald Trump signalled dissatisfaction with Tehran’s latest proposal. That has kept oil prices under upward pressure as traders worry about supply disruption and the broader consequences of instability in the Middle East. Reuters reported on Tuesday that oil prices closed up nearly 3% as persistent concern over supply constraints from the closed Strait of Hormuz outweighed other market developments. The World Bank also said energy prices could surge 24% in 2026 to their highest since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, even if the most acute disruption from the Middle East conflict fades in May. For gold, that creates a paradox: geopolitical stress supports haven demand, but the associated rise in oil also strengthens inflation expectations and reduces the likelihood of lower interest rates. Near-term tone remains fragile Analysts say that leaves gold vulnerable in the near term. Standard Chartered said this week that the metal looked fragile in the short run, even though structural support from geopolitical tension, tariffs and trade uncertainty should help it regain footing over time. Reuters’ latest poll also suggested the longer-term bull case remains intact, with gold expected to average $4,916 an ounce in 2026 despite the recent setback. For now, however, the market is in wait-and-see mode. Bullion is close enough to recent lows to attract bargain hunters, but not yet supported by a clear enough macro signal to break higher. Until Powell speaks and markets get a cleaner read on the Fed’s reaction to energy-driven inflation, gold is likely to remain trapped between haven demand and rate pressure. Source: https://invezz.com/ie/news/2026/04/29/gold-at-april-lows-will-feds-next-move-spark-a-comeback/

Gold edged higher on Thursday as a softer dollar helped support prices, even as optimism over a possible ceasefire between the US and Iran improved broader market sentiment and reduced some demand for traditional havens.

Gold eased from a one-month high on Wednesday as a firmer dollar and tentative hopes for renewed talks between Washington and Tehran encouraged investors to rotate back into riskier assets, taking some shine off bullion.

The gold price is currently causing nervousness once again. Since the start of the war involving the USA and Israel against Iran, the precious metal has recorded a daily loss of 4% for the second time.

SMM Nickel Market Update on January 29: Macro and Market News: (1) The US Fed paused at its January interest rate meeting, keeping rates in the 3.5-3.75% range; Milan and Waller supported a 25-basis-point interest rate cut; Powell reiterated that rates are at the high end of the neutral range, policy is not predetermined, decisions are data-dependent, and indicated that policy could be eased if tariff-induced inflation peaks and pulls back, advising his successor to stay away from politics. (2) Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang met with US Goldman Sachs Group Chairman and CEO David Solomon. Spot Market: On January 29, SMM #1 refined nickel prices were 143,600-152,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 148,000 yuan/mt, up 1,900 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,800-7,300 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 7,050 yuan/mt, up 450 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums/discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -500-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) fluctuated upward during the session, closing at 147,470 yuan/mt in the daytime session, up 1.79%. The continued weakening of the US dollar index provides macro sentiment support for nonferrous metal prices. Indonesia's plan to cut nickel ore RKAB quotas remains the core driver of nickel prices, with frequent supply disruptions at Indonesian mines making nickel prices more likely to rise than fall, keeping the center at a relatively high level.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Structural Risks Persist, LME Zinc Fluctuates at Highs] Overnight, the LME zinc contract recorded a bearish candlestick, with support provided by the 5-day daily average below. The strengthening US dollar overnight exerted pressure on the upside for LME zinc, but the LME backwardation structure remained above $100/mt......