According to sources familiar with the matter, the US and Mexico are expected to reach an agreement that would eliminate the 50% tariff imposed by former US President Trump on certain steel imports, reviving a similar deal from Trump's first term. Trump was not directly involved in the negotiations, but any agreement would require his approval. The talks were led by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the sources said. The agreement has not yet been finalised, the sources added. Under the current terms, US buyers would enjoy duty-free treatment as long as they keep Mexico's total steel imports within a quota based on historical trade levels. The new cap would be higher than the limit allowed under the similar agreement during Trump's first term, though these so-called "quotas" were never fixed numbers but rather designed to "prevent surges," according to the sources. US Commerce Department data shows that last year, the US imported approximately 3.2 million mt of steel from Mexico, accounting for 12% of total US steel imports. During Trump's first term, the US and Mexico reached a deal in 2019 agreeing to prevent imports from exceeding the average level from 2015 to 2017. As of press time, neither the White House nor the office of Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum had responded to requests for comment. At an event on Tuesday, Mexican Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard said he told US officials during a meeting last week that imposing steel tariffs on Mexico was unjustified, as the US exports more steel to Mexico than it imports. Last Friday, he also posted a photo showing him shaking hands with a smiling Lutnick in Washington. "We are waiting for their response because last Friday we provided them with details of our arguments, and we are right," Ebrard told reporters on Tuesday. "So we will wait for their response, most likely this week." The negotiations come as Sheinbaum seeks to reach an understanding with Trump on border migration and drug smuggling, issues for which Trump has demanded Mexico take action. Meanwhile, Sheinbaum confirmed on June 9 local time that she would attend the upcoming G7 summit in Canada. She also mentioned the possibility of a bilateral meeting with US President Trump during the event. Sheinbaum added that migration would be one of the topics discussed during the meeting. Currently, the Mexican Foreign Minister is coordinating the arrangements for various meetings, and has pointed out that in addition to a possible meeting with President Trump, President Sheinbaum will also hold bilateral talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney.

During the Labour Day holiday, risk events piled up in global financial markets. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged as expected and lowered its economic growth forecast. The robust US April non-farm payrolls report pushed back expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. OPEC agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June and is expected to further accelerate the pace of production increases. The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses stockpiled goods ahead of tariff implementation, leading to record imports. US manufacturing contracted further in April, with tariffs squeezing supply chains and keeping input prices elevated. Initial jobless claims in the US rose to a two-month high, exceeding market expectations. US stocks climbed steadily, with the three major indices hitting fresh highs in over a month, focusing on the Fed's policy outlook. Japanese stocks rose for the seventh consecutive trading day, marking the longest winning streak since August 2023. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index hit a nearly one-month high amid signs of easing trade tensions. The US dollar index pulled back from three-week highs, supported by strong employment data and a relaxation in trade tensions. The offshore yuan strengthened past the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November last year. In commodities, CBOT soybeans bottomed out and rebounded, having briefly touched a two-week low, influenced by trade war sentiment. LME copper continued to rebound in May, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions. Gold prices rebounded from a two-week low, weighed down by a robust jobs report. Oil prices continued to probe lower amid concerns over increased supply due to OPEC's accelerated production increases. **US Stocks Rise for Second Consecutive Week** US stocks rose significantly during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising for the second consecutive week. The three major indices hit fresh highs in over a month, supported by strong economic data and the potential easing of trade tensions. The US added 177,000 jobs in April, exceeding expectations, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. The data helped alleviate concerns about an economic slowdown. Earlier, the US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted for the first time in three years, impacted by a surge in tariff-induced imports. The Fed's meeting this week will test the significant rebound in US stocks, with investors expecting the Fed to resume interest rate cuts in the coming months. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep borrowing costs unchanged when it issues its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, market pricing suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as June. **US Dollar Index Pulls Back from Three-Week High** The US dollar rose to a three-week high during the Labour Day holiday. Despite the contraction in US GDP, other data suggested the economy remained resilient, while investors assessed the prospects of a deal between the US and its trading partners. The US economy contracted in Q1, worse than market expectations but better than the pessimistic forecasts of some major US banks. The US Commerce Department reported that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in Q1 on a QoQ basis. The world's largest economy added more jobs than expected in April, reflecting a stable labour market. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The jobs report strengthened expectations that the Fed would keep interest rates unchanged at its next few meetings and not cut rates until summer. **CBOT Soybeans Bottom Out and Rebound** US soybeans bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, with the weekly index rising 1.19%. They touched a two-week low on the last trading day of April, mainly influenced by trade war sentiment. Entering May, they rebounded from a two-week low amid hopes of an easing of trade tensions. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report released on Thursday showed that net export sales of soybeans for the current marketing year in the US increased by 428,200 mt in the week ended April 24, up 55% from the previous week and 27% from the four-week average. Market estimates ranged from a net increase of 150,000 mt to a net increase of 600,000 mt. On May 2 (Friday), data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that large speculators reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybean futures and options by 59 lots to 5,768 lots in the week ended April 29. **LME Copper Rebounds After Initial Decline** LME copper futures bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having fallen over 3% on the last trading day of April and 6% for the month, the largest monthly decline since June 2022, dragged down by lingering trade uncertainties. US Comex copper futures fell 5.5% on Wednesday, with the sharp decline attributed to investors liquidating arbitrage positions held in anticipation of US tariffs on copper. Entering May, LME copper continued to rebound, with hopes pinned on an easing of trade tensions providing support for copper prices. Copper inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) fell 23.5% from last Friday to 89,307 mt, the lowest since January 17, providing support for copper prices. Inventories plunged nearly one-third last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options by 3,424 lots to 20,013 lots in the week ended April 29. The London Metal Exchange (LME) market was closed on Monday (May 5) for the UK's early May bank holiday and resumed trading on Tuesday (May 6). **NYMEX Crude Oil Continues to Probe Lower** International oil prices continued to probe lower during the Labour Day holiday, with both major benchmarks hitting new lows since April 9. In April, Brent crude futures fell 18%, and US crude futures fell 18%, the largest monthly decline since November 2021. Oil prices suffered their largest weekly decline since late March last week. Brent crude fell over 8%, and US crude fell about 7.7%. Concerns over increased supply arose as OPEC is expected to further accelerate production increases. Eight OPEC countries agreed on Saturday to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. Barclays and ING lowered their Brent crude forecasts following the OPEC decision. Barclays cut its Brent crude forecast for 2025 by $4 to $66 per barrel and its 2026 forecast by $2 to $60 per barrel, while ING expects the average price of Brent crude this year to fall to $65 from a previous estimate of $70. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude oil inventories fell unexpectedly last week due to increased exports and refinery demand, while gasoline inventories declined for the ninth consecutive week. The EIA said that US crude oil inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels to 440.4 million barrels in the week ended April 25, while analysts surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 429,000 barrels. The EIA said that crude oil inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma, futures delivery hub rose by 682,000 barrels last week. Data released by the CFTC showed that fund managers increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options in the week ended April 29. The data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in WTI crude oil futures and options in New York and London by 2,716 lots to 116,599 lots in the week. **Gold Prices Rebound from Two-Week Low** Gold prices bottomed out and rebounded during the Labour Day holiday, having briefly touched a two-week low and falling for the second consecutive week, weighed down by an easing of trade tensions and a robust jobs report. Gold prices rose over 2% on Monday, driven by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand, as the market awaited the Fed's policy decision later in the week. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, compared with an expected increase of 130,000, with the March increase revised down to 185,000. Following the report, traders bet that the Fed would wait until July to begin cutting interest rates, having previously expected a cut in June. Barclays and Goldman Sachs also pushed back their estimates for interest rate cuts from June to July. Data released by the CFTC showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold futures and options by 9,857 lots to 115,865 lots in the week ended April 29. In the same week, speculators increased their net long positions in COMEX silver futures and options by 5,078 lots to 31,252 lots. US Data: The US economy contracted for the first time in three years in Q1, as businesses imported heavily to avoid cost increases caused by tariffs, underscoring the disruptive nature of President Trump's chaotic trade policies. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis said that US GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% on a QoQ basis in Q1, the first contraction since Q1 2022. Another report on monthly consumer spending showed that consumer spending rose 0.7% in March, higher than the expected increase of 0.5%. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. The ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector job growth in the US slowed more than expected in April. Only 62,000 jobs were added, with the March increase revised down to 147,000. Economists had previously forecast 115,000 job additions in April. US manufacturing contracted for the second consecutive month in April, with tariffs on imported goods putting pressure on supply chains, keeping factory ex-factory prices elevated, and prompting some companies to lay off workers. The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Thursday that its manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, the lowest in five months. A PMI below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 10.2% of the economy. A report released by the Labor Department showed that initial jobless claims rose by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 241,000 in the week ended April 26. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics' Bureau of Labor Statistics said that non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000 in April, with the March figure revised down to an increase of 185,000 from a previous increase of 228,000. Economists had previously forecast 130,000 job additions in April. The April unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, helping to ease concerns about an imminent US recession. The US services PMI rose 0.8 points MoM to 51.6 in April, with the index measuring prices paid by businesses for materials and services surging to its highest level in over two years, indicating that tariff-induced inflationary pressures are increasing. The survey showed that US services companies are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs on prices and a sharp drop in federal spending due to the government's pursuit of significant spending cuts. **OPEC Agrees to Increase Oil Production by 411,000 bpd in June** Eight OPEC countries agreed on May 3 to increase oil production by 411,000 bpd in June. In a statement, OPEC said that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining market stability amid current healthy oil market fundamentals and raised production. OPEC said that its policy of gradually increasing production may be paused or reversed depending on changes in market conditions. The statement also said that the eight OPEC countries would hold their next meeting on June 1. Risk events in financial markets remain abundant after the holiday. The Fed begins a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, the focus will be on when the Fed may restart its easing cycle and whether policy action will be taken at the June meeting. China will release its April trade data on May 9 and April inflation data on May 10. In addition, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes on Thursday.

On Tuesday local time, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order that "patched" some of the auto tariffs implemented earlier this month, bringing a glimmer of good news to the auto industry, which is currently grappling with regulatory uncertainty and the additional costs imposed by tariffs. That day, Trump signed the executive order aboard Air Force One. Although the 25% auto tariffs will remain in place, the new measures will reduce the overall tariff level on auto imports. In simple terms, imported cars will be exempt from separate tariffs similar to those on steel and aluminum, to avoid the cumulative effect of overlapping tariffs. According to a senior US Commerce Department official, the White House will also adjust the 25% tariff on auto parts originally scheduled to take effect on May 3, allowing automakers that produce and sell complete vehicles in the US to apply for a tariff deduction of up to 3.75% (25% X 15%) of the vehicle's value. This deduction will be reduced to a maximum of 2.5% (25% X 10%) after one year and will be eliminated the following year (April 30, 2027). It is currently unclear how automakers will receive such compensation, but it is important to note that the policy applies to vehicles produced after April 3. "We just want to help them through this little transition period," Trump said on Tuesday. The Auto Industry "Fights Back" This concession came after weeks of intensive lobbying by automakers, parts suppliers, and auto dealers, who warned that excessive tariffs could drive up car prices, trigger factory shutdowns, and lead to job losses. Stellantis Chairman John Elkann had previously warned that Trump's trade policies "put the US and European auto industries at risk." Another auto industry executive also stated, "We have urged the government not to impose these tariffs on us over and over again... because it really endangers the health of our industry." In addition, six major organizations representing the US auto industry also unusually joined forces to lobby the Trump administration against imposing these tariffs. These organizations represent franchised dealers, suppliers, and nearly all major automakers, with the exception of Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. In a letter to Trump administration officials, they stated that the impending tariffs could jeopardize US auto production. The letter pointed out that many auto suppliers are already "in trouble" and cannot afford additional cost increases, leading to broader industry issues. Therefore, Trump's latest concession will mark an initial victory for the auto industry and also signal another "retreat" by Trump on his most aggressive tariff policies. However, it is worth noting that although the latest adjustments will alleviate some of the cost pressures on automakers, parts suppliers, and dealers to a certain extent, it is still difficult to gauge the actual reduction in financial costs. The entire industry is still grappling with the 25% tariff on imported cars, which could significantly drive up industry costs and exacerbate supply chain pressures. Corporate Reactions Jennifer Safavian, CEO of Autos Drive America, which represents major foreign automakers operating in the US, called the new measures "a welcome relief for automakers, but there is still more work to be done." Safavian urged Trump to "create a growth-friendly and regulatory environment for the prosperity of US manufacturing." Ford CEO Jim Farley expressed appreciation for the anticipated changes in an email statement on Tuesday, but also warned that the company still faces significant cost increases. "Ford welcomes and appreciates President Trump's decisions, which will help mitigate the impact of tariffs on automakers, suppliers, and consumers," he wrote. Stellantis Chairman John Elkann also responded, saying, "Stellantis appreciates the tariff relief measures decided by President Trump. As we further assess the impact of tariff policies on our North American operations, we look forward to continuing to work with the US government to strengthen the competitiveness of the US auto industry and stimulate exports." General Motors CEO Mary Barra also thanked Trump, saying it "helps create a level playing field for companies like GM and allows us to invest more in the US economy."

The US Department of Commerce announced the final results of the anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on PV products from four Southeast Asian countries, with countervailing duties reaching up to 3,403.96%. On April 21, local time, the US Department of Commerce released the final anti-dumping and countervailing duty rates on crystalline solar cells (whether or not assembled into modules) from four Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Certain Cambodian companies were subject to countervailing duties of 3,403.96%, while the "all-entities" rate for Vietnam was set at 271.28% for anti-dumping duties.

[US Department of Commerce Final Determination to Impose Hefty Tariffs on Chinese Disposable Aluminum Products] On March 7, the US Department of Commerce confirmed that Chinese disposable aluminum containers, trays, lids, and other products were sold at unfairly low prices and received improper subsidies. It decided to impose anti-dumping duties ranging from 193.90% to 287.80% and countervailing duties of 317.85%. Additionally, it ruled that the tariffs could be applied retroactively for 90 days. The US International Trade Commission (USITC) will make its final determination on April 11, 2025, to confirm whether the imports have caused material harm to US industries.