SMM, August 13: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract moved lower from yesterday's center; market buying sentiment improved further, and trading among traders was relatively active. Today, SHFE aluminum spot premiums were mainly traded between parity against the August contract and August contract +10 yuan/mt, while market transactions against the September contract were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to 20 yuan/mt. Today, the east China market shipment sentiment index was 3.18, up 0.01 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 3.30, up 0.04 day on day. Aluminum futures pulled back somewhat; today, downstream processing enterprises in the central China market showed a slight recovery in purchase willingness, and overall market trading volume recovered. Large traders remained notably willing to hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and the price difference between large and small traders' quotes was wide. In the end, actual transaction prices in the central China market were in a range of discounts of 110-150 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum September contract. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 3.06, down 0.03 day on day; the purchase sentiment index was 2.95, down 0.02 day on day. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventories in major consuming regions rose by 3,000 mt day on day today, with only Gongyi showing destocking.

SMM, August 13: Futures turned sharply lower today, while the South China spot market remained weak. Inventory accumulated again after four months, somewhat dampening expectations for the market outlook, and bearish sentiment gradually emerged. With both absolute prices and the spot-futures price spread weakening, holders briefly tried to hold prices firm but failed, then generally cut prices and sold more to cash out promptly. Mainstream quotations were at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to parity, and the glut in circulation was no different from that during yesterday’s sharp rally. Demand side, downstream buyers gradually bought on dips while standing on the sidelines, though buying interest was not high. Traders still bought less and sold more, with only as-needed purchases, which created a clear drag. Both supply and demand were weak, and overall transactions were poor. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 65 yuan/mt to 105 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.

In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, the highest monthly rental for the H800 fell to 74,000 yuan (down 1.99%), and the highest per-card-hour rate fell to 12.85 yuan (down 1.98%). The pullback was driven by the exit of high-priced resources previously traded at 75,500 yuan and the repricing of a small volume of annual-contract resources in Hebei at 74,000 yuan, reflecting a change in supply structure rather than weakening demand. High-end spot cargo transactions confirmed demand resilience; supply growth remains limited, and the top anchor remains in a high range.

In North China today, spot #1 copper cathode prices were quoted against the front-month contract at a discount of 420-350 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 385 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average transaction price was 107,870 yuan/mt, down 360 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

[Tianjin Zinc: Zinc Prices Stay High, Downstream Mostly Waits and Sees] In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainly traded at 25,450-25,680 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 25,440-25,640 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded at around 25,440-25,640 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a premium of about 10-20 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, Huzinc was quoted at 26,940 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of about 70-120 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of about 60 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market.

SMM, August 13: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a discount of 120 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/mt, down 60 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average Guangdong #1 copper cathode price was 108,250 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 108,100 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventories declined for two consecutive days, with fewer arrivals and slightly higher warehouse withdrawals. Today, the price spread between futures contracts widened further from yesterday to nearly 700 yuan/mt. With such a wide spread, downstream consumers purchased cautiously, and suppliers proactively cut prices to sell, causing premiums to keep falling. Even so, actual transactions remained very thin. Today, Guangdong copper cathode procurement sentiment was 2.21, down 0.03 from the previous trading day, and shipment sentiment was 3.03, down 0.04 from the previous trading day (historical data can be queried in the database). Overall, the price spread between futures contracts continued to widen, downstream restocking appetite remained subdued, and spot trades were sluggish.

[SMM Daily Review: Cooling CPI, Slight Correction in Silver Prices, Spot Deals Probe Deeper into Discount Territory] SMM, August 13 – The US July CPI was in line with expectations, and the signal of an inflation slowdown strengthened; rate-hike bets were trimmed slightly, and silver futures prices pulled back. Spot market demand was weak, with transactions probing further into discount territory.

[Bearishness Persists, Pr-Nd Oxide Remains Weak; Metals Follow Lower with Sluggish Transactions; Magnetic Materials Recover as Work Resumes] Yesterday, affected by fluctuations in futures prices, most market participants maintained a bearish outlook. Downstream metal producers showed strong wait-and-see sentiment and low purchase willingness; some traders continued selling at low prices, leaving market transactions under pressure, and Pr-Nd oxide prices remained on a weak trend. In medium-heavy rare earths, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide prices were relatively stable, with little overall change in the market.

[CPI in Line with Expectations Eases Macro Anxiety; Sustained Destocking Provides Price Support] Based on a comprehensive assessment, on the macro front, US July CPI and core CPI YoY growth rates slowed to 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively, both in line with market expectations. The mild inflation pullback eased market concerns about further aggressive rate hikes by the US Fed; short-term upward momentum in US Treasury yields weakened, and macro liquidity pressure eased somewhat, providing support for aluminum prices at this stage. The fundamental supply gap persisted, and aluminum ingot inventories continued destocking. On the supply side outside China, UAE's EGA disclosed the progress of production resumption at the AlTaweelah aluminum smelter. Currently, 18% of the plant's 1,262 pots have been restarted, and the pace of production resumption has been faster than earlier market expectations. The supply-tightness premium priced in earlier now faces retracement pressure. In the near term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate on a strong note, but upside room will be somewhat capped by production resumption expectations.

1. Coal-to-Hydrogen In Shandong, the anthracite transaction range was [1,990-1,990], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.87 yuan/m³] In Hebei, the anthracite transaction range was [1,740-1,740], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.72 yuan/m³] In Shanxi, the anthracite transaction range was [1,260-1,260], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.31 yuan/m³] In Henan, the anthracite transaction range was [1,290-1,290], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.41 yuan/m³] 2. Natural Gas-to-Hydrogen In eastern Guangdong, the natural gas transaction range was [5,850-5,870], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.7 yuan/m³] In Guangxi, the natural gas transaction range was [5,540-6,070], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.67 yuan/m³] In Shanxi, the natural gas transaction range was [5,340-5,540], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.52 yuan/m³] In Hebei, the natural gas transaction range was [5,430-5,860], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.63 yuan/m³] In Shandong, the natural gas transaction range was [5,505-5,650], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.62 yuan/m³] In the Pearl River Delta, the natural gas transaction range was [5,860-5,870], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.74 yuan/m³] In Hubei, the natural gas transaction range was [5,560-5,780], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.65 yuan/m³] In Henan, the natural gas transaction range was [5,520-5,700], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.64 yuan/m³] In Guizhou, the natural gas transaction range was [5,330-5,510], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³] In Sichuan, the natural gas transaction range was [5,330-5,610], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.58 yuan/m³] In Zhejiang, the natural gas transaction range was [6,030-6,420], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.86 yuan/m³] In Inner Mongolia, the natural gas transaction range was [5,450-5,670], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.54 yuan/m³] In Heilongjiang, the natural gas transaction range was [5,560-5,900], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.66 yuan/m³] 3. Propane-to-Hydrogen In northeast China, the propane transaction range was [5,330-5,560], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.17 yuan/m³] In east China, the propane transaction range was [5,610-5,830], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.31 yuan/m³] In Shandong, the propane transaction range was [5,832-5,842], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.38 yuan/m³] In south China, the propane transaction range was [5,830-6,090], and the average hydrogen cost was [3.43 yuan/m³] 4. Methanol-to-Hydrogen In northeast China, the methanol transaction range was [2,700-2,720], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.39 yuan/m³] In east China, the methanol transaction range was [2,580-2,720], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.36 yuan/m³] In central China, the methanol transaction range was [2,500-2,750], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.38 yuan/m³] In north China, the methanol transaction range was [2,380-2,510], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.19 yuan/m³] In south China, the methanol transaction range was [2,690-2,700], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.38 yuan/m³] In northwest China, the methanol transaction range was [1,880-2,375], and the average hydrogen cost was [1.97 yuan/m³] In southwest China, the methanol transaction range was [2,460-2,730], and the average hydrogen cost was [2.36 yuan/m³]