Indonesian stainless slab moving through a trade-measure gap, not summer shutdowns, explains why European stainless scrap weakened while Asian stainless scrap rose between the mid-July low and 3rd August.

Luxembourg-based stainless producer Aperam told its Q2 2026 earnings call that its European business was already earning about €75 a tonne before the EU's new trade defence measures took effect, and that it welcomes the rules as strengthening the European steel community rather than as a disruption — a framing that differs from peers attributing recovery chiefly to import curbs, with Aperam stressing its diversified portfolio instead. Adjusted EBITDA was €130 million in Q2. The company guides Q3 adjusted EBITDA and shipments lower on seasonality and the absence of valuation effects, with net financial debt flat in Q3 and falling by year-end. Full-year capex guidance is about €200 million, back-end loaded, with the base dividend held at €2.00 a share.

Acerinox, Spain's largest stainless steel producer, said EU imports fell 31% year on year in the first half of 2026 even though end-use demand remained subdued, pointing to policy rather than consumption as the driver. CBAM took effect on January 1, and the European Commission's revised trade defence measures came into force on July 1, cutting annual quotas by 55% and applying a 50% tariff on out-of-quota volumes. CEO Bernardo Velazquez said the measures are needed to offset surplus exports from overcapacity countries and restore European competitiveness. With only one month of the new quota regime reflected in H1, the full displacement effect on Asian mills shipping into Europe should become clearer in Q3 and Q4 arrivals data.

German crude steel production has risen significantly since early 2026, surpassing 2022 output levels according to the German Steel Federation, even as the broader economy deteriorates sharply. The Federal Statistical Office reported nearly 500,000 jobs lost in Q1 2026, concentrated in manufacturing, construction, and trade, while insolvencies have hit their highest rate in over two decades per the Halle Institute for Economic Research. Industry analysts attribute the steel sector's divergence to EU trade defence measures and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism shielding domestic producers from international competition — a dynamic critics argue defers rather than resolves the structural investment gap in European steelmaking.

【SMM Steel】ArcelorMittal has voiced strong support for the European Commission’s new proposal to introduce tariff quotas as part of strengthened trade defence measures, replacing the existing safeguard mechanism. CEO Aditya Mittal described the proposal as a crucial step amid the ongoing crisis caused by low-priced imports, weakened demand, and challenging economic conditions in Europe. Geert Van Poelvoorde, CEO of ArcelorMittal Europe, added that the reform aligns with long-standing concerns of European steelmakers. He stressed the need for rapid implementation, highlighting that the new system, combined with the revised Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), will help stabilize the sector and ensure fair competition.