SMM Nickel July 6 News: Macro and Market News: (1) The People's Bank of China announced that on July 6, 2026, it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan outright reverse repo operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multi-price bidding method, for a term of 3 months (91 days), maturing on October 5, 2026 (postponed in case of holidays). (2) The State Council issued the "15th Five-Year Plan for Beautiful China Construction". It proposed actively and steadily advancing and achieving carbon peak, implementing the national strategy to actively address climate change, fulfilling nationally determined contributions, solidly advancing carbon peak actions, and fully implementing the dual control system for total carbon emissions and intensity. Spot Market: On July 6, SMM #1 refined nickel price fell 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 2,300 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the range for domestic mainstream brand electrodeposited nickel was -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract moved sideways in the morning session, closing at 126,920 yuan/mt as of the morning close, up 0.12%. US non-farm payrolls disappointed, leading to more cautious market assessments of the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled significantly, and a sharp drop in the US dollar provided a catalyst for nickel prices to rebound. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to trade in the doldrums within the range of 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.

[Tungsten News] SMM, July 6: Today, the domestic tungsten raw material market was mainly in the doldrums. Last Friday, a mine in Guangdong auctioned 43 standard tonnes (65% WO3 basis) of low-grade tungsten concentrates, which ultimately failed to attract any bids. Inquiries were sluggish, and with considerable market uncertainty, traders were less willing to enter the market. Smelters mainly restocked based on long-term contracts and rigid demand. Spot orders were concluded at transaction prices below the online price, with some deals done at 430,000–450,000 yuan per standard tonne (65% WO3 basis). According to the SMM survey, China’s tungsten concentrates production edged down MoM in June, mainly because safety inspections in Jiangxi and Hunan caused a slight decline in output at some mines. In addition, some small mines in Henan also reduced or suspended production due to reasons such as the exhaustion of first-half quotas. In July, with the flooding season in south China, tungsten concentrates production was expected to remain at low levels. However, amid sluggish shipments across the industry in Q2, there was still some inventory in the tungsten concentrates market waiting to be cleared. This week, attention will focus on long-term contract information in the industry and changes in downstream restocking sentiment.

[SMM Daily Review: Silver Prices Drift Higher, Spot Premiums Hold Steady] SMM, July 6 – Geopolitical risks and a weaker US dollar supported a rebound in silver prices, but the high US dollar and US Treasury yields capped upside room. Spot demand was weak, premiums held steady, and transactions leaned toward the lower end.

[Overseas Macro Bullishness Battles Supply Bearishness, China's Destocking Supports SHFE Aluminum Bottom] On the domestic front, bullish factors are prominent. The proportion of liquid aluminum has continued to rise. Over the past week, aluminum ingot warehouse withdrawals hit a four-year high, and the pace of inventory destocking has accelerated significantly, forming support for the bottom of SHFE aluminum. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, overseas, the bullish impact of the US dollar and the bearish forces from supply and geopolitics offset each other. After its earlier excessive decline, LME aluminum's downward momentum has slowed, and in the short term, it is mainly consolidating at lows for repair; domestically, supported by rapid destocking, the probability of underperforming LME aluminum is low. The SHFE and LME markets may show slight divergence, and a sustained unilateral weak trend is unlikely.

[July 6 Morning Briefing] The US added 57,000 nonfarm jobs in June, below market expectations of an increase of 110,000. The combined job gains for April and May were revised down by 74,000. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract surged to the 128,000 yuan/mt level in early trading before pulling back slightly, and by the end of the morning session it was reported at 127,190 yuan/mt, up 0.59%. The US nonfarm payrolls report came in surprisingly weak, leading the market to turn more cautious on the employment outlook. Expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes cooled markedly, and the US dollar fell sharply, providing a catalyst for a rebound in nickel prices. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to be in the doldrums in the 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt range.

[SMM Analysis] SHFE copper cathode spot premiums experienced notable volatility in H1 2026, marked by deep discounts in phases, a recovery in Q2, and a return to positive territory by mid-year. In Q1, seasonal inventory buildup after the Chinese New Year, slow downstream recovery, and disruptions from contract rollovers repeatedly put spot premiums under pressure. Entering Q2, consumption improved QoQ, and concentrated smelter maintenance drove continuous destocking of domestic social inventory. In particular, the rapid decline in Guangdong inventory lifted spot premiums in South China, opened arbitrage opportunities for shipping inventory from East China to South China, and provided support to premiums in Shanghai and other regions. From May to June, although high copper prices and off-season expectations suppressed downstream purchases, the widening LME-COMEX spread diverted overseas supply to the US market, constraining the pace of imported copper replenishment in China, with low inventory levels still underpinning spot market resilience. Looking ahead to H2, SHFE copper premiums will be shaped by the interplay of inventory, consumption, imports, and supply additions. The Q3 off-season may limit the upside for premiums, but low inventories, uncertainty over import replenishment, and tight regional supply will continue to support spot premiums. In Q4, attention should be focused on the capacity ramp-up of new expansion projects such as Humon Phase 2, Chifeng Jintong Phase 2, and Shenghai Phase 2. If new supply is released smoothly, the import window opens, and consumption recovery remains weak, spot premiums may gradually come under pressure. However, if inventories stay low and import replenishment remains limited, premiums could still see intermittent strengthening opportunities.

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 7.06 Futures: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2609 futures contract bottomed out and rebounded, hitting a low of 2,705 yuan/mt before staging a strong rebound, eventually closing at 2,820 yuan/mt, edging up 1 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The daily candlestick formed a bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating strong support at the 2,700 yuan/mt level. From a moving averages perspective, the current price at 2,820 yuan/mt has risen above MA5 (2748.2) and MA40 (2815.55), but remains under resistance from MA10 (2790.8) and MA20 (2839.3). The short-term moving averages (MA5/MA10) are in a bearish alignment, while the medium-term MA20 still forms resistance above, indicating a tug-of-war between longs and shorts. The price oscillated around MA40. If it breaks through the MA20 (2839.3) resistance on high volume, it is expected to open up upside room; conversely, if it repeatedly fails to break through, caution is needed for a pullback to test the MA5 (2748.2) support. Overall, the futures show a consolidating pattern of 'bottoming out to confirm support while resistance persists above.' The short-term directional move will depend on volume confirmation and the battle at MA20. Ore market: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $70.11/mt, up $0.13/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea FOB average price was $39/mt, flat from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was $71/mt, flat; the SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $64/mt, flat; the SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was $58.5/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF average price was $52/mt, flat; the Malaysian bauxite CIF (washed) average price was $62.5/mt, flat; the Ghanaian bauxite CIF price was $78/mt, flat; the Turkish bauxite CFR price was $76/mt, down $2.5/mt from the previous Friday. Overall, for domestic ore, mine operations in Shanxi, Henan and other regions have recovered somewhat, and combined with falling alumina prices, sentiment among alumina refineries to push for lower raw material prices has strengthened, causing domestic ore prices to decline from earlier levels. As of July 2, in Shanxi, the EXW crushing plant price of bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60%, excluding VAT, was around 530-550 yuan/mt, with the average price up 10 yuan/mt MoM; in Henan, similar bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price, excluding VAT, was around 500-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guiyang, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content, EXW price including VAT, was at 490-540 yuan/mt, with the average price up 20 yuan/mt MoM; in Guangxi, bauxite with Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content, EXW crushing plant price excluding VAT, was at 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported ore side, uncertainties around Guinea’s July long-term contract prices and quota policies, combined with the traditional rainy season, prompted some mines to control shipments, lending some support to ore prices. Meanwhile, alumina refineries in China still held high inventories (equivalent to around 95 days), which limited their purchase willingness, and the tug-of-war over offer/bid prices between buyers and sellers persisted. In the short term, ore prices are expected to consolidate at highs. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s bauxite quota policy and the trend of ocean freight rates. Spot Prices: As of July 3, 2026, the SMM alumina index was at 2,773.71 yuan/mt, down 0.94 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shandong alumina index was at 2,791.91 yuan/mt, down 0.34 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Henan alumina index was at 2,818.66 yuan/mt, down 1.73 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Shanxi alumina index was at 2,829.98 yuan/mt, down 1.99 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guizhou alumina index was at 2,747.77 yuan/mt, down 1.59 yuan/mt MoM; the SMM Guangxi alumina index was at 2,674.59 yuan/mt, down 0.80 yuan/mt MoM. Daily Spot-Futures Spread: According to SMM data, on July 3, the SMM alumina index stood at a premium of 47.71 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract’s latest traded price at 11:30 a.m. Warrant Daily: On July 3, total registered alumina warrants increased by 6,312 mt from the previous trading day to 271,600 mt. In Shandong, total registered alumina warrants remained flat at 32,417 mt; in Henan, they held steady at 17,698 mt; in Guangxi, they were unchanged at 8,429 mt; in Gansu, they stayed flat at 11,704 mt; in Xinjiang, they rose by 6,312 mt to 201,300 mt. Markets outside China: As of July 3, 2026, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $330/mt, the ocean freight rate was $32.30/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate stood near 6.79. This translates to a selling price of approximately 2,863.50 yuan/mt at major Chinese ports, 89.79 yuan/mt above the SMM alumina index. Summary: Total alumina inventory in China edged up MoM, with relatively small overall changes. Breaking it down, raw material inventory at aluminum smelters declined, mainly because some smelters actively reduced high-priced in-factory inventories amid elevated spot alumina prices, leading to lower raw material stockpiling. In-factory inventory at alumina refineries edged up, as maintenance-related production cuts in Shanxi were offset by output increases in south China, resulting in limited overall changes. At ports, new vessels arrived successively, increasing port inventory. Warrant inventory trended downwards as the willingness to deliver to delivery warehouses waned due to invoice issuance issues and the spot-futures price spread. Inventory in transit and at yard stocks accumulated, mainly because warrants gradually matured and converted into spot cargoes, coupled with continued shipments from Guangxi, resulting in an increase in in-transit cargoes. The operational landscape for alumina is expected to see relatively small changes this week. Some enterprises using domestic ore may schedule maintenance due to ore supply-side issues, but the impact on monthly production will be limited, and overall inventory levels are expected to remain at current levels. On the price front, as the regional alumina mismatch problem gradually eases, the spot price center is likely to pull back, with the subsequent trend coming under pressure [All data other than publicly available information is derived from public data, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference purposes only and does not constitute any decision-making advice.]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Rebound Continuously; Spot Cargo Transactions Dominated by Rigid Demand] Recently, ADC12 prices outside China continued to decline, with quotes today pulling further back to the $3,100-3,200/mt range. Meanwhile, China's ADC12 prices remained relatively firm, supported by aluminum scrap costs, driving a continuous recovery in the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets and further narrowing import losses. Currently, the import loss per mt of ADC12 is about 1,087 yuan, having pulled back to early-March levels.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,354.5/mt, dipped to $13,343/mt shortly after the opening, then drifted slightly higher to a high of $13,392/mt before settling at $13,357.5/mt, up 0.54%. Trading volume reached 8,500 lots, and open interest stood at 250,000 lots, a decrease of 587 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reduced positions. Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 102,710 yuan/mt. The price center dipped to 102,710 yuan/mt after the opening, then moved in a "W" shape. Near the close, it reached a high of 103,010 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 102,790 yuan/mt, up 0.14%. Trading volume was 16,300 lots, and open interest was 151,000 lots, a decrease of 811 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls reduced positions.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment] Last Friday, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,400 yuan/mt. At the beginning of the session, it briefly dipped to a low of 24,340 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls added positions, and the contract drifted higher, hitting a high of 24,495 yuan/mt at the end of the session. It finally closed up at 24,470 yuan/mt, up 175 yuan/mt, or 0.72%. Trading volume decreased to 45,864 lots, while open interest increased by 494 lots to 90,804 lots.