SMM May 7 News: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in both domestic and overseas markets showed mixed performance. SHFE tin continued its strong momentum from the previous day's session, ultimately closing up 5.01%. SHFE nickel fell 2.68%. LME tin led the gains with a remarkable 9.01% increase, LME copper rose 2.22%, and LME zinc gained 1.52%. LME aluminum fell 1.02%, LME nickel dropped 2.22%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina front-month contract rose 1.13%, while the foundry aluminum front-month contract fell 1.03%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 1.15%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.26%, and rebar gained 0.68%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal fell 0.92%, and coke dropped 0.64%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 2.95%, and COMEX silver gained 5.77%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.98%, and SHFE silver gained 2.8%. As of 6:45 AM on May 7, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Ministry of Foreign Affairs: China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China] On May 6, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian hosted a regular press conference. A reporter asked about US President Trump's recent remarks concerning China. In response, Lin Jian stated that China and the US are maintaining communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) People's Bank of China: The weighted average interest rate on newly issued commercial personal housing loans nationwide in Q1 2026 was 3.06% . (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index fell 0.49 to 98.02. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the war with Iran increasingly resembles an inflationary shock to the economy. While the impact on employment and economic growth is not yet apparent, concerns about supply chain disruptions and sustained price increases are intensifying. "This is not yet a 'stagflationary' shock" — the kind that hits the job market while pushing up inflation, forcing the US Fed to decide which of its policy objectives faces greater risk — Goolsbee said after attending the Milken Institute conference in Los Angeles. "This is simply an inflationary shock. And the longer this persists, the more uneasy I become." (Jin10 Data APP) Chicago Fed President Goolsbee warned against instinctively cutting interest rates in response to faster productivity growth, as such a phenomenon can sometimes push up inflation. In prepared remarks released ahead of a panel discussion at the Milken Institute Global Conference on Wednesday local time, Goolsbee said the US Fed's response to faster productivity growth "depends in large part on whether the productivity growth happens unexpectedly or is expected to happen in the future." He said in the first scenario, inflation could be suppressed, allowing for interest rate cuts. In the latter scenario, additional investment and spending driven by productivity growth could push up inflation, requiring higher interest rates. Additionally, he emphasized the need to be wary of consumption and investment driven by future growth expectations. "The more intense the hype, the greater the need for rate hikes to prevent overheating," he said. (Jin10 Data APP) St. Louis Fed President Musalem said there is significant uncertainty surrounding the US economic and monetary policy outlook, but he believes that relative to employment risks, inflation risks are currently rising. Musalem said on Wednesday: "Inflation is clearly above our 2% target. We face risks on both the employment and inflation fronts. Based on my assessment, risks are tilting more toward inflation rather than employment." Musalem said the US Fed's benchmark policy rate is currently at a neutral level that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy, or possibly slightly accommodative. He said: "There are very plausible scenarios that require us to hold the current policy rate unchanged for a period of time." However, he also noted that he sees scenarios that could require officials to cut interest rates further, or to raise rates. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME "FedWatch": The probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June is 93.5%, with a 6.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July is 86.5%, with a 13.0% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut and a 0.5% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: Today, China's April foreign exchange reserves (TBD), US April Challenger job cuts, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 2, US March construction spending MoM, US April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, Eurozone March retail sales MoM, France March trade balance, and Switzerland April seasonally adjusted unemployment rate will be released. In addition, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will participate in a panel discussion at a conference. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI down 5.93% and Brent down 7.2%. FXPro chief market analyst Alex Kuptsikevich said in a report that as the US is unwilling to further escalate tensions in the conflict with Iran, the oil market has now priced in a peace deal as the base case scenario. "Once shipping resumes quickly, tankers trapped in the Strait of Hormuz will release supply in a concentrated burst in the short term, pushing down Brent and WTI crude prices." However, he added that since global inventories have already been depleted and repairs to damaged infrastructure in Gulf states still require time, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-war levels before the end of this year. "The decline in Brent and WTI prices will likely be very rapid but will not last long." (Jin10 Data APP) According to market observer The Kobeissi Letter, approximately 70 minutes before Axios reported that the US and Iran were close to reaching consensus on a "14-point" agreement to end the war, crude oil short positions worth approximately $920 million were established. At 3:40 AM ET today (3:40 PM Beijing time), with no major news, the market established nearly 10,000 crude oil short contracts. In notional value, this trade was approximately $920 million — an unusually large transaction for the 3:40 AM time slot. 70 minutes later at 4:50 AM ET (4:40 PM Beijing time), Axios reported that the US was "close to" reaching a "memorandum of understanding" to end the Iran war. By 7:00 AM ET (7:00 PM Beijing time), oil prices had fallen more than 12%, and the aforementioned crude oil short positions had unrealized gains of approximately $125 million. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a foreign media survey, as the Iran conflict continued to hinder Persian Gulf exports and forced more oil fields to shut down, OPEC's crude oil production fell to a 36-year low last month. The survey showed that OPEC's April crude oil production decreased by 420,000 barrels per day to 20.55 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 1990, mainly dragged down by further declines in Kuwait and Iran production. The survey showed Kuwait had the largest production decline last month, with daily output falling by 470,000 barrels to 800,000 barrels per day, less than one-third of pre-war levels. The country's exports had fallen to just 22,000 barrels per day. Iran followed, with production declining by 180,000 barrels per day to 3.05 million barrels per day, doubling the cumulative production cuts since the war began. OPEC also suffered another blow last week. The UAE announced its withdrawal from the organization, following years of friction with the group's leader Saudi Arabia over production limits. The April survey still included UAE data, as the UAE's withdrawal did not officially take effect until May 1. (Bloomberg) (Jin10 Data APP) US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventory for the week ending May 1 was at its lowest since the week of December 6, 2024, and domestic crude oil production was at its lowest since the week of January 30, 2026. (Jin10 Data APP)

According to Japanese media reports on the 6th, Honda is in discussions with the Canadian government to scrap its planned electric vehicle, battery and cathode material plant in Ontario. First announced in April 2024, the 15-billion-Canadian-dollar project was Honda’s largest-ever investment, targeting annual output of 240,000 EVs. Due to external policy shifts, Honda delayed production from 2028 to 2030+ last May and began re-evaluating the plan. The firm has now decided to terminate the project, citing the end of U.S. EV tax credits and delayed U.S.-Canada trade talks. The move is part of its global business restructuring. Since last November, Honda has adopted an emergency management regime to ease financial strain from heavy EV investments and weak EV demand.

May 6, 2026 — Iron ore prices strengthened significantly in today's trading, with the benchmark I2609 futures contract closing at 816 RMB/ton, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Spot port prices rose by 10–18 RMB/ton compared to the prior day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mills mainly purchased for essential needs with limited inquiries; overall spot market transactions remained subdued.

[Weakening US Dollar and Supply Disruptions Drive Notable Intraday Gains in SHFE Zinc]: The most-traded SHFE zinc 2606 contract opened at 23,850 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 23,815 yuan/mt in early trading, then fluctuated upward throughout the session, touching a high of 24,285 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled up at 24,250 yuan/mt, gaining 605 yuan/mt, or 2.56%.

On April 24, 2026, the State Taxation Administration officially released the "Positive and Negative List for Taxpayers' Compliant Invoice Issuance," providing clear and itemized guidance that both better safeguards taxpayers' legitimate rights and promotes the rectification of circular invoicing, mutual invoicing, and invoicing with artificially inflated transaction links

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2606 contract opened at 89,840 yuan/mt, touching the intraday low at the beginning of the session before the price center shifted upward to 91,260 yuan/mt. It then moved sideways and ultimately closed at 90,970 yuan/mt, up 1.65%. Open interest stood at 9,358 lots, an increase of 269 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 4,335 lots, indicating bulls adding positions. Macro perspective, the US Secretary of Defense confirmed the validity of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement, and Trump also stated that negotiations with Iran had made progress, cooling market risk-aversion sentiment over the escalation of Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Fundamentals side, supply side, imported and domestically produced copper cargoes arrived at ports successively, with overall supply marginally loosening; demand side, downstream players returned to the market after the holiday, but purchase willingness remained mediocre, with the market mainly focused on just-needed restocking. Inventory side, as of Wednesday, May 6, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 9,900 mt WoW from pre-holiday levels to 252,900 mt, with total inventory up 124,400 mt compared to the same period last year at 128,500 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 102,660 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 90,970 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 102,796 yuan/mt, resulting in a price spread of -136 between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper. The price spread remained inverted and widened from the previous day.

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Tungsten Market Trading Sluggish, Awaiting Tomorrow's Long-Term Contract to Set the Tone] SMM May 6 News: On the first day after the holiday, China's tungsten market continued its weak consolidation trend. The upstream raw material market was waiting for tomorrow's long-term contract guidance price, with very few transactions in the market. Downstream powder and cemented carbide intermediate products showed a catch-up decline. Wait-and-see sentiment pervaded the market, with transactions across all segments dominated by scattered small orders for rigid demand, lacking support from bulk transactions.

On May 6, 2026, iron ore futures rose sharply today, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 816 yuan/mt, up 2.84% from the previous trading session. Port spot prices rose 10-18 yuan/mt from the previous day. Traders showed increased quoting activity, while steel mill purchases were mostly driven by rigid demand with few inquiries; overall spot transaction sentiment remained sluggish. The latest SMM survey data showed that daily average pig iron production edged down by 9,800 mt to 2.4307 million mt; the blast furnace operating rate declined 0.19% to 89.61%. This indicated that overall rigid demand for iron ore, though slightly lower, remained at a high level. Looking ahead, as previously constrained port inventory was released and well absorbed by the market, upward resistance on ore prices has eased amid continuously increasing destocking speed, and there is currently strong upward momentum. However, as raw material costs continue to climb and profits remain under pressure, steel mills may increase maintenance intensity going forward. Therefore, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward in the short term, while medium and long-term trends still depend on the ability of steel mills to absorb supply.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.

SMM May 6 News: The most-traded SHFE lead 2606 contract opened at 16,690 yuan/mt during the session. Driven by a broad rally in non-ferrous metals at the start of trading, futures held up well with a fluctuating trend, and the lead price center steadily rose, touching a high of 17,005 yuan/mt. Near the close, the rally slowed down somewhat, with prices consolidating slightly at high levels, ultimately closing at 16,980 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt or 2.1%, recording a small bullish candlestick. Currently, domestic secondary lead smelters are constrained by undersupply of scrap battery raw materials, with increasing production cuts and shutdowns. Regional supply contraction supported spot cargo and futures. A sudden safety accident at a major lead-zinc smelter outside China introduced uncertainty to the subsequent global lead ingot supply, which is expected to provide short-term support for domestic lead prices. However, the consumption side in China remained persistently weak, with no notable improvement in downstream demand in May. Combined with the high probability of intensifying lead ingot inventory buildup pressure after the holiday, upside room for lead prices will be constrained. SHFE lead is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term. Data source statement: Data other than public information is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.