Tokyo Steel plans to modify its hot-dip galvanized coil line at Okayama Works into a dual-purpose line that also produces cold-rolled coils. The ~10 billion yen ($70m) investment will enable annual output of 250,000 tonnes for both coil types. The galvanizing line will shut down for three months from Dec 2026 to Feb 2027. Trial runs begin March 2027, with commercial production scheduled for April 2027.

SMM News, July 7: Metals market: As of the midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell, with SHFE copper down 0.12% and SHFE aluminum up 0.48%. SHFE lead fell 0.41%. SHFE zinc rose 1.06%. SHFE tin fell 0.26%. SHFE nickel fell 0.02%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures contract rose 0.42%, while the most-traded alumina contract fell 0.44%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.22%. The most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.24%. The most-traded polysilicon futures contract edged down. Ferrous metals were mostly in the red. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar was flat at 3,074 yuan/mt, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel rose 1.83%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.93%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 0.38%. Overseas base metals: as of 11:42, LME metals mostly fell. LME copper fell 0.32%, LME aluminum rose 0.22%, and LME lead fell 0.19%. LME zinc rose 0.25%, LME tin fell 0.92%, and LME nickel fell 0.79%. Precious metals: as of 11:42, COMEX gold fell 0.57% and COMEX silver fell 1.48%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.83%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.3%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.72%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract fell 0.98%. As of the midday close, the most-traded European shipping container futures contract extended the previous trading day’s decline, falling a further 5.03% to 2,446.5 points. As of 11:42 on July 7, midday moves in some futures: Spot and Fundamentals Aluminum: Today, futures continued to rise, while spot in South China was under pressure and weaker. Yesterday, the spot-futures price spread briefly strengthened sharply, coupled with the absolute price rising for four consecutive sessions to a higher level. With both elevated, most suppliers actively sold to cash in, and price cuts became increasingly common; some chose to hold prices firm but with little effect. Mainstream quotations were at a discount of -10 to 0 yuan/mt, and circulation loosened... Macro Front China: [World Bank Keeps Its 2026 China GDP Growth Forecast Unchanged] On July 7, the World Bank released the latest China Economic Update in Beijing. The report said that despite facing strong supply, weak demand, and shocks to global energy supplies, China’s economic growth overall maintained resilience, and China’s economic growth in 2026 is expected to be 4.4%. Compared with the previous update released in December last year, the growth forecast remained unchanged. (Xinhua News Agency) [PBOC Reverse Repo Operations Resulted in a Net Drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the Day] Today, the PBOC conducted 10 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations. As 69.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos matured today, it resulted in a net drain of 59.5 billion yuan on the day. (Jinshi Data APP) [John Lee: Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System Begins Trial Operation Today; New RMB-Denominated Gold Futures Contracts Under Consideration] On July 7, John Lee announced that Hong Kong’s Gold Central Clearing System began trial operation today and that the development of new RMB-denominated gold futures contracts is under consideration. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited will sign a memorandum of understanding with the PBOC on cross-border RMB payment and clearing. The Hong Kong gold market saw a critical upgrade at the infrastructure level, with the gold clearing and settlement system officially launched on July 7. To support the new system and simultaneously invigorate the local gold futures market, HKEX announced a one-year fee waiver for gold futures, effective from July 7. (Wall Street CN) 》Click for details On the US dollar front: As of 11:42, the US dollar index rose 0.03% to 100.89. Fed Governor Waller stated that the US Fed would not deliberately maintain low interest rates to help the US government finance its fiscal deficit. Waller noted that the US labor market had stabilized, while inflation had re-accelerated, meaning the risk from inflation now exceeds the risk to employment—a complete reversal from policy considerations a year ago. He pointed out that while he supported an interest rate cut last year due to labor market weakness, the policy focus should now shift back toward curbing inflation. The market’s attention has turned to the June CPI, due on July 14, the last critical inflation data before the Fed’s July 28-29 meeting. Although international oil prices have pulled back to around $70/barrel, Fed officials still expect inflation to be significantly above the 2% target at year-end. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool: The probability of the US Fed maintaining the current interest rate in July is 74.3%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.7%. For September, the probability of the rate remaining unchanged is 42.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 46.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point hike is 10.8%. (Jinshi Data APP) The US ISM Services PMI report showed that economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in June. The Services PMI registered 54, marking the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. Miller, Chair of the ISM Services Business Survey Committee, stated that the June Services PMI of 54 was down 0.5 from May’s 54.5. The Business Activity Index remained in expansion territory, falling 2.3 from May’s 57.7 to 55.4. The Prices Index dropped to 67.7 in June, a decrease of 3.6 from May’s 71.3, falling below 70 for the first time since February. The index has been above 60 for 19 consecutive months, with a 12-month average of 68. Diesel, gasoline, oil and related commodities were again cited as the items with the largest price increases in June, but some respondents also reported price declines. This may stem from differences in contract terms for these commodities across companies. Some respondents noted declines in payments for gasoline and diesel, but this was not a widespread phenomenon. We expect this situation to persist for several months as rising oil prices feed through supply chains, but assuming the recent progress in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continues, there should be some relief by autumn. (Jin10 Data APP) Other Currencies: Japan’s Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy, Shironai Minoru, said media reports suggesting Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s government was trying to steer interest rates lower were completely inaccurate. Speaking at a regular press conference in Tokyo on Tuesday, Shironai said, “Reports that the government would encourage low interest rates as part of its fiscal expansion policies are groundless. If our intentions are not being accurately conveyed, we will work harder to foster understanding.” His remarks came as financial markets closely watch how Takaichi Sanae will implement her economic strategy through massive investment without adding to the already heavy debt burden. Shironai attended a Bank of Japan board meeting last month as a government representative, where policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate to 1%, the highest in 31 years. (Jin10 Data APP) Data: Today will see the release of Germany’s seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM for May, the UK Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM for June, France’s trade balance for May, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending June 20, the US trade balance for May, and China’s foreign exchange reserves for June, among others. Additionally, attention should be paid to: Turkey hosts the NATO summit through July 8; the US Trade Representative’s office holds public hearings on a proposal to impose additional tariffs on 60 global economies; Samsung Electronics will release its Q2 earnings guidance. Crude Oil: As of 11:42, both benchmark crude prices rose, with WTI up 0.54% and Brent up 0.61%. The brief window of US-Iran easing once again faces rupture, pushing oil prices higher. Markets are watching geopolitical developments and supply-demand outlook changes. The number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz continues to rebound. According to reports, a total of 160 vessels passed through the strait from Monday to Saturday last week, though the overall level remains far below pre-war norms. (Wall Street CN) As a surge in global supply intensifies competition for buyers, Saudi Arabia cut the official selling prices of its main crude grades for Asian customers for August by the most in at least 26 years. According to a price list, Saudi Aramco slashed the price of Arab Light crude for Asia for August by $11 per barrel, to a discount of $1.50 per barrel against the regional benchmark. The cut was larger than the $8 per barrel expected in a survey of institutions. Crude oil prices in the Middle East have recently declined. After resuming exports from the Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf, Saudi Aramco temporarily raised crude oil shipments to approximately 90% of pre-war levels. Before the war, Ras Tanura was the main loading port for Saudi crude oil exports. As the war blocked the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Aramco diverted most of its crude oil flows to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Previously, the OPEC+ producer group agreed to continue with a small production increase in August. Now, with shipping resuming in the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf oil producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait will be able to utilize their higher quotas. (Jinshi Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

Canadian International Trade Minister Sidhu Maninder revealed in an interview that Ottawa and Tokyo are negotiating cooperation options, including joint mining projects, offtake agreements, and joint stockpiling for minerals such as graphite and gallium. "We are providing Japan with opportunities to develop Canada's critical minerals." He cited the graphite offtake agreement between Nouveau Monde Graphite and Panasonic as an example to illustrate this point, noting that graphite is a critical material for batteries. Sidhu is leading a large delegation to Tokyo, which includes nearly 300 representatives from 180 enterprises and organizations, marking the largest such mission by this North American country in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan and Western governments and manufacturers have been seeking secure supplies of rare earth minerals.

[Japan] Tokyo Steel announced a reduction of its domestic steel scrap purchase prices in the Tokyo Bay area by approximately 3.1 USD/tonne, effective June 26, with shindachi scrap cut by approximately 6.2 USD/tonne. After the adjustment, H2 scrap purchase prices in the Tokyo Bay and Kyushu areas both decreased to 331 USD/tonne, while in other areas they fluctuate between 331 and 334 USD/tonne. The latest price cut was primarily driven by weak demand for finished steel in the local construction and manufacturing sectors, prompting coastal EAF mills to precisely push for lower raw material prices to squeeze profits.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Hikes Heat Up, LME Zinc Center Slightly Declines] Last Friday, LME zinc recorded a large bearish candlestick, with support from the middle Bollinger Band below and resistance from the upper Bollinger Band above, while the MACD bearish candlestick expanded. Last Friday, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes heated up......

Panasonic announced at its Investor Day event held in Tokyo on June 8 that it will invest JPY 350 billion, or about KRW 3.323 trillion, to capture battery demand driven by the growth of AI data centers. Panasonic said it will use the investment to expand its supply chain not only in Japan but also in North America.

The global secondary copper industry is at a critical stage characterized by tightening resources, green transformation, and intensifying global competition. As environmental protection policies continue to tighten and the energy crisis deepens, secondary copper, with its significant environmental and economic advantages, plays an increasingly prominent role in alleviating tight supply of primary copper and promoting low-carbon development. Currently, the global copper industry chain faces multiple pressures including supply vulnerability, demand transformation, and low-carbon upgrading. Major economies have successively included copper in their critical minerals lists, and international competition over secondary copper resources is becoming increasingly fierce. Optimizing the industry chain structure, improving recycling efficiency, and harmonizing global standards have become urgent priorities for the industry. To help the industry gain a comprehensive understanding of global policy trends and market landscape, SMM and TOUCHI INTERNATIONAL CORP. have joined hands to produce the , focusing on industry development directions and conveying market insights, aiming to provide practitioners with an authoritative and professional industry distribution guide. (Click the link to get it for free:) TOUCHI INTERNATIONAL CORP. was founded in 2001. With 25 years of deep engagement in the recycled resources sector, it is a globally renowned non-ferrous metal processing and green supply chain service provider, with operations covering more than ten countries and regions including China, South Korea, Vietnam, the US, Australia, and the UAE. The company is headquartered in Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan, and has a core production site in Kasumigaura City, Ibaraki Prefecture, with a factory area of 12,000 m², equipped with 8 dry and wet copper wire nodules processing lines. It has its own transportation team, achieving integrated operations of raw material recycling, transportation, and processing. Leveraging a professional multinational team and global coordination capabilities, it specializes in the processing and trading of secondary metal materials including bare bright copper wire nodules, bare bright wire, No. 2 copper, tin bronze, bare bright copper ingots, 6-series aluminum extrusions, tin ingots, and more . With stable quality and multiple quality certifications including ISO9001, CIC, and CQC, the company upholds the principles of green development, shared benefits, and people-oriented management, and is highly influential in Japan's secondary metals industry. TOUCHI INTERNATIONAL CORP. Contact: Ryu kokushi Contact Information (Japan): Tel: +81-3-5545-4065 Mobile: +81 9024352198 Email: long@to-chi.co.jp / ryu@to-chi.co.jp URL: https://www.to-chi.co.jp/ Contact: Huiming Yang Mobile: +86 13701160431 (China) Email: huiming@to-chi.co.jp Address (China): 201-03, 2nd Floor, Building 2, No. 52, Chunhe Road, Daxing District, Beijing Address (Headquarters): 3F, 3-6-4 Akasaka, Minato-ku, Tokyo 107-0052, Japan SMM Joint Production Contact Liu Mingkang 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn

SMM May 28: Metals market: As of the midday close, domestic base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper dropped 1%, SHFE aluminum fell 1.08%, SHFE lead declined 0.99%, SHFE zinc lost 0.54%, SHFE tin slid 1.05%, and SHFE nickel fell 1.07%. In addition, the most-traded foundry aluminum futures fell 0.82%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.14%. The most-traded lithium carbonate contract gained 0.27%. The most-traded silicon metal contract dropped 0.64%. The most-traded polysilicon futures fell 0.9%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore edged up, rebar and hot-rolled coil each gained less than 0.5%, and stainless steel fell 0.5%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract gained 2.44%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:39, LME metals fell nearly across the board. LME copper dropped 0.2%. LME aluminum and LME lead both fell 0.15%. LME zinc was flat at $3,507.5/mt. LME tin declined 0.55%. LME nickel lost 0.45%. Precious metals, as of 11:39, COMEX gold fell 1.47% and COMEX silver dropped 2.6%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 2.75%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract dropped 4.97%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 3.78%, and the most-traded palladium futures declined 3.75%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract rose 1.22% to 2,995.5 points. As of 11:39 on May 28, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot Prices and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 120 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 103,695 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 103,590 yuan/mt, down 1,395 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly driven by rising arrivals and weakening consumption... Macro Front China: [CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling: Foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continues to rise] On May 28, the 2026 Global Investor Conference hosted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange was held in Shenzhen. CSRC Vice Chairman Liu Haoling stated in his address that China's capital market reforms integrating investment and financing had progressed steadily and continued to deliver results, overall market valuations were within a reasonable range, and foreign investors' willingness to allocate to China's quality assets continued to rise. In his address, Liu Haolin stated that China is a major contributor to and stabilizing anchor for global economic growth, and a fertile ground for foreign enterprises to invest and do business. Since the beginning of this year, foreign capital has been flowing steadily into China's stock market through various channels. As of now, various overseas investors hold over 4 trillion yuan in A-share tradable market capitalization, making them important participants in China's capital market. (Wallstreetcn) PBOC conducted 101.3 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market, with the operation rate at 1.40%, unchanged from the previous day. Today, 100 billion yuan of reverse repos matured. US dollar: As of 11:39, the US dollar index rose 0.25% to 99.48. Persistently high energy prices intensified market concerns about a resurgence in inflation. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee on Thursday further reinforced his warning: rising market expectations for AI's potential to boost productivity could push up inflation and force the US Fed and other central banks to raise interest rates. Goolsbee said: "The more hype there is about future productivity, the higher rates may need to go to prevent the economy from overheating. More importantly, facing supply shocks in the short term—whether from oil prices, supply chain disruptions, or other factors—makes the problem even worse." The above remarks further expanded on the views Goolsbee first publicly raised earlier this month. He questioned the notion that AI could suppress inflation and thereby create room for central banks to cut interest rates—a view championed by many officials in the Trump administration as well as new US Fed Chair Warsh. In the 1990s, as computers became more widely adopted, US productivity rose unexpectedly, driving rapid economic growth without triggering inflation. However, Goolsbee argued that if productivity gains are anticipated by the market, the situation would be different. Markets could trigger a spending boom in advance, pushing up prices before actual productivity gains materialize. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but he warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In remarks prepared for delivery at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he is watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war are weighing on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of weakness in the labour market. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance was well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson stated, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." (Jin10 Data) Other currencies: The Bank of Korea's six-month dot plot showed that among 21 dots, 7 were at 2.75%, 10 at 3%, 2 at 3.25%, and 2 at 2.5%. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Data: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: As of 11:39, both benchmarks rose, with WTI up 3.1% and Brent up 3.07%. US-Iran tensions escalated again, driving crude oil higher. US President Trump expressed dissatisfaction with negotiations with Iran, and the White House subsequently denied Iranian media reports of progress in peace talks, quickly dampening earlier market optimism about a ceasefire agreement. The US-Iran conflict entered its fourth month, with ceasefire prospects remaining uncertain. According to Xinhua News Agency, US President Trump said at a cabinet meeting at the White House on the 27th that the US and Iran had not yet reached a deal and the US was "dissatisfied" with this, fully rejecting the potential mechanism for joint US-Iran-Oman management of the Strait of Hormuz. (Wallstreetcn) The American Petroleum Institute (API) released data showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM May 28 News: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals fell across the board. SHFE copper fell 0.9%. SHFE aluminum fell 1.24%, SHFE lead fell 0.81%. SHFE zinc fell 0.48%. SHFE tin fell 0.64%. SHFE nickel fell 0.48%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract rose 0.17%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 1.02%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore fell 0.13%, stainless steel rose 0.23%, rebar rose 0.32%, and hot-rolled coil rose 0.36%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal futures contract rose 2.13%, and the most-traded coke futures contract rose 1.88%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw broad declines in LME base metals. LME copper fell 0.69%. LME aluminum fell 1.28%, LME lead fell 0.72%. LME zinc fell 0.58%. LME tin rose 0.08%. LME nickel fell 0.63%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 1.03%, COMEX silver fell 2.25%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract fell 1.26%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.28%. As of 7:11 am on May 28, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [Li Qiang: Accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security] Li Qiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier of the State Council, conducted a survey in Zhoushan and Ningbo, Zhejiang Province from May 25 to 27. He emphasized the need to thoroughly implement General Secretary's important remarks and instructions on building a major-country reserve system, adhere to government leadership, social co-construction, and diversified complementarity, manage commodity and important material reserve adjustments, strengthen strategic security, macroeconomic regulation, and emergency response functions, continuously enhance industry chain and supply chain resilience, and accelerate the construction of commodity resource allocation hubs to provide reliable support for coordinating development and security. (Xinhua News Agency) [Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Strengthen top-level design of automotive standards system] According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the 2026 automotive standardization system has been completed. This system covers many aspects, strengthens the top-level design of the standards system, and empowers high-quality development of the automotive industry. In promoting innovative development in emerging fields, it focuses on accelerating standard development and iteration in areas such as driving automation, connected functions and applications, information security and data security, resource management and information services, automotive software, automotive data, and "vehicle-road-cloud integration." It efficiently carries out the development and revision of standards for key system components such as automotive electronics and automotive chips. In addition, targeting future industry directions such as automotive artificial intelligence and new-form vehicles, it conducts forward-looking standard breakthrough actions and advances standard planning and layout. (CCTV News) US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index rose 0.08% to 99.23. US Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said he expected inflation to cool later this year as the effects of tariffs and rising energy costs fade, but warned that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. In prepared remarks for a speech at a Bank of Japan-hosted conference in Tokyo on Thursday morning, Jefferson said he was watching for signs that rising energy costs from the Iran war were dragging on consumer spending. He also warned that he continued to see signs of labour market weakness. Jefferson reiterated his view that the central bank's current policy stance is well positioned to respond to any developments. Jefferson said, "I am not prejudging the next meeting and look forward to engaging with my colleagues on the best policy to achieve our dual mandate goals." According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through June is 99.9%, with a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point interest rate cut. The probability of the US Fed maintaining rates unchanged through July is 91.4%, with an 8.5% probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate hike. US Fed Governor Lisa Cook said in a speech at a Stanford University event on Wednesday local time that inflation is moving in the wrong direction, and she is prepared to raise interest rates if this continues. While Cook said she currently favors keeping borrowing costs unchanged and expects price growth to cool again in the coming months, her remarks align her with many US Fed officials' view that accelerating inflation is now a bigger policy concern than the labour market. Cook said: "I want to be clear about my risk assessment: risks remain tilted toward higher inflation." Cook said that inflation above the US Fed's 2% target for five years poses the risk of price pressures becoming embedded in price and wage-setting behavior. "Therefore, if the expected inflation pullback does not materialize in a timely manner, I am prepared to raise interest rates," she said. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include the eurozone May industrial confidence index, eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, and US April durable goods orders MoM. In addition, attention should be paid to: the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI down 4.77% and Brent down 3.92%. The prospects for US-Iran talks remain uncertain. After the decline on the 27th, WTI crude oil edged up at the open on May 28, as the US and Iran still have disagreements on how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said he was "not satisfied" with the negotiations. The White House denied Iranian reports of a draft agreement that said Iran and Oman would oversee strait shipping. Despite the challenges, crude oil prices are still on track for a second consecutive weekly decline due to optimism that the warring parties can at least reach an interim agreement. The sticking points in these protracted negotiations include Iran's desire to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz and the fate of the country's nuclear program. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CCTV News, earlier on Wednesday, Iranian media disclosed a "preliminary informal document" regarding the framework of a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the US, covering issues such as the Strait of Hormuz, regional military deployments, and future agreement arrangements. Data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories both declined last week. US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 22 was -2.819 million barrels, versus expectations of -4.367 million barrels and a prior value of -9.11 million barrels. US API gasoline inventory for the week ending May 22 was -3.199 million barrels, versus expectations of -2.896 million barrels and a prior value of -5.795 million barrels. (Jin10 Data APP)

SMM May 23: Metals market: Last Friday's overnight domestic market saw base metals mostly rise. SHFE copper rose 0.58%. SHFE aluminum fell 0.14%, SHFE lead rose 0.3%. SHFE zinc fell 0.16%. SHFE tin rose 1.09%. SHFE nickel rose 0.49%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.77%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures contract fell 0.06%. Last Friday's overnight ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was flat at 792.5 yuan/mt, stainless steel rose 0.34%, rebar edged down 0.09%, and hot-rolled coil fell 0.15%. Coking coal and coke: coking coal continued to fall for the third consecutive trading day, down 1.45%, and coke fell 0.95%. Last Friday's overnight overseas metals market saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper rose 0.18%. LME aluminum rose 0.45%, LME lead rose 0.4%. LME zinc edged up 0.06%. LME tin rose 1.16%. LME nickel rose 0.67%. Last Friday's overnight precious metals : COMEX gold fell 0.7%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 1.13% weekly drop; COMEX silver fell 1.06%, falling for two consecutive weeks with a 2.1% weekly drop. Last Friday's overnight SHFE gold most-traded contract fell 0.1%, posting a second consecutive weekly decline with a 2.13% weekly drop; SHFE silver most-traded contract rose 0.51%, but SHFE silver fell for two consecutive weeks with a 7.81% weekly drop. As of 8:31 am on May 23, last Friday's overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [PBOC: 600 billion yuan MLF operation to be conducted on May 25] PBOC: To maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on May 25, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation with a fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple-price winning method, with a maturity of 1 year. [CSRC: Crackdown on illegal cross-border securities business; investors' property safety unaffected by the rectification] Xinhua News Agency reported that recently, with the approval of the State Council, the CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Comprehensive Rectification of Illegal Cross-border Securities, Futures, and Fund Business Activities." Regarding this rectification, all parties are highly concerned about how the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors will be protected. In this regard, the plan emphasized that investors' property safety will not be affected by the rectification. A CSRC official said the plan specified numerous measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of existing investors. For example, a 2-year concentrated rectification period will be set to phase out relevant domestic services of overseas institutions. Overseas institutions are required to properly communicate with investors affected by rectification measures in China and arrange account disposal to ensure client property safety. [Hong Kong SFC: Enhanced measures to address forged documents and money laundering risks and raise account opening standards] The Hong Kong SFC issued a circular on May 22, setting out the monitoring measures that should be implemented when opening accounts and maintaining customer relationships. The circular was issued following the SFC's review of account opening practices at 12 securities brokerages. The review identified multiple significant deficiencies, including inadequate due diligence on account opening documents, acceptance of suspicious or forged documents during the account opening process, and weaknesses in managing cross-border agency relationships with ex-China intermediaries. (Wallstreetcn) US dollar: Last Friday, the overnight US dollar index rose 0.12% to 99.32. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index posted its second consecutive weekly gain, up 0.04% for the week. The 17th Fed Chairman Warsh was sworn in at the White House on Friday. Warsh stated: "The Fed's mission is to promote price stability and full employment." He said, "When these goals are pursued with wisdom and clarity, independence and resolve, inflation can be lower, economic growth can be stronger, real take-home wages can be higher, America can be more prosperous, and just as importantly, America's standing in the world can be more secure." He added: "To fulfill this mission, I will lead a reform-oriented Fed that learns from past successes and mistakes, breaking free from static frameworks and models while adhering to clear standards of integrity and performance." (Jin10 Data) Fed Governor Waller's hawkish remarks put US Treasury prices under pressure, with money markets fully pricing in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026. The most significant policy signal on Friday came from Fed Governor Waller. On Friday local time, Fed Governor Waller stated that as the energy shock from the Iran war pushes up prices, he supports making it clear that the Fed's next rate move is as likely to be a hike as an interest rate cut. Waller said his current stance is to remain patient and keep rates unchanged until the impact of the war becomes clearer, but he warned on Friday that he does not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes if inflation does not begin to slow down soon. Waller's remarks were released almost simultaneously with the swearing-in of new Fed Chairman Warsh. The interest rate environment Warsh currently faces is notably more hawkish than the Fed's internal dot plot expectations. (Wall Street CN) "Fed whisperer" Nick Timiraos noted that there were several key moments during Kevin Warsh's swearing-in ceremony at the White House: ① Trump asked Warsh to be "completely independent." Trump said, "(I hope he) doesn't look at me, doesn't look at anybody." ② Just two minutes later, Trump offered some "suggestions" indicating the economic direction he hoped to see: "Strong economic growth doesn't need to be cooled down," "Economic growth does not mean inflation," and "I want the economy to boom to unprecedented levels, because there is indeed some debt to deal with." ③ Trump hinted that the US Fed's decision-making body would "converge." He said other Fed policymakers "will make their own decisions, but they will listen to Kevin throughout," even those "whose positions are slightly different." ④ Warsh referenced Greenspan, not Bernanke. Warsh recalled the historical scene of Greenspan being sworn in at the White House in 1987, and pledged to "begin work with abundant energy and a sense of mission, just as Chairman Greenspan did." He made no mention of former Chairman Bernanke, with whom he had worked for five years during his previous tenure as a governor. (Jin10 Data) In addition, affected by the Iran war, the US consumer confidence index in May fell to a historic low, and long-term inflation expectations also deteriorated significantly. Data showed that the University of Michigan's final reading of the May consumer confidence index dropped to 44.8, with consumers expecting prices to rise at an annualized rate of 3.9% over the next five to ten years, up from 3.5% in April and hitting a seven-month high. They also expected prices to rise 4.8% over the next year. Gasoline prices continued to hover near their highest levels since 2022, exacerbating Americans' concerns about rising living costs and the failure to reach a deal to end the war. The impact of inflation on household budgets, particularly for low-income consumers, poses risks to the future consumption outlook. Joanne Hsu, the survey director, stated: "Cost of living concerns remain the top issue on people's minds, with 57% of respondents spontaneously citing that high prices are eroding their personal finances, up from 50% last month." She stated: "The key point is that consumers appear worried that inflation will not only spread beyond fuel prices to other areas, but that this upward trend could persist well into the future." (Jin10 Data) Regarding other currencies: ECB President Lagarde stated that despite the deepening impact of the Iran conflict, long-term inflation expectations remained broadly in line with the 2% target. Although the energy crisis is pushing up inflation and dragging down the economy, long-term inflation expectations have remained well-anchored overall. The impact of this conflict on medium-term inflation and economic activity will depend on the intensity and duration of the energy price shock, as well as the scale of its indirect transmission effects. (Wall Street Journal) Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae told him during their meeting on Friday that she hoped the BOJ would adopt appropriate policies, taking into account the government's price measures. Ueda Kazuo told reporters after the meeting with Takaichi Sanae at the Prime Minister's residence in Tokyo that it was a routine meeting between the two and that no specific details of monetary policy were discussed. (Wall Street Journal) On the macro front: Data to be released this week include the UK May CBI retail sales balance, US March FHFA house price index MoM, US March S&P/CS 20-city non-seasonally adjusted house price index YoY, US May Conference Board consumer confidence index, US May Dallas Fed business activity index, Australia April non-seasonally adjusted CPI YoY, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision through May 27, Switzerland May ZEW investor confidence index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending May 9, US May Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Eurozone May industrial confidence index, Eurozone May economic sentiment index, Canada Q1 current account, US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 23, US April core PCE price index YoY, US April personal spending MoM, US Q1 real GDP annualized QoQ revised, US April core PCE price index MoM, US April durable goods orders MoM, US April new home sales annualized, Japan April unemployment rate, France May CPI MoM preliminary, France Q1 GDP YoY final, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment change, Germany May seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany May CPI MoM preliminary, Canada March GDP MoM, US May Chicago PMI, and China May official manufacturing PMI. In addition, other events to watch this week include: 500 billion yuan in 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) and 1 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo maturing today; BOJ Governor Ueda Kazuo delivering a speech at a monetary policy conference hosted by the BOJ; the RBNZ releasing its interest rate decision and monetary policy statement; RBNZ Governor Breeman holding a monetary policy press conference; the ECB publishing the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams delivering a keynote speech at a conference co-organized by the Central Bank of Iceland; 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem delivering a speech; Bank of England Governor Bailey delivering a speech; 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid delivering a speech; and US Fed Governor Bowman delivering a speech. In addition, it is worth noting that due to the Memorial Day holiday, the US stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of precious metals and WTI crude oil futures contracts under CME will end early at 02:30 Beijing time on May 26, and trading of US equity and Treasury futures contracts will end early at 01:00 Beijing time on May 26. Due to the Buddha's Birthday holiday, the Hong Kong stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday), with Southbound and Northbound trading suspended. The South Korean stock market will also be closed for one day on the same date. In addition, due to the Spring Bank Holiday, the UK stock market will be closed for one day on May 25 (Monday). Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under ICE will end early at 01:30 Beijing time on May 26. Investors are advised to take note. (Jin10 Data) The overseas market exchange closure schedule is as follows (all in Beijing time): Crude oil: Both oil futures rose during the overnight session last Friday, with WTI up 0.67% and Brent up 1.62%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures declined 3.98% for the week, and Brent futures declined 4.59% for the week. Since the ceasefire agreement was reached in April this year, US-Iran negotiations have remained deadlocked, with no comprehensive agreement to end the conflict in sight. Although a draft reportedly "close to being finalized" has been emerging, four core obstacles still stand in the way of lasting peace. According to Bloomberg, the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear issues, the Lebanon conflict, and sanctions currently constitute the four core points of divergence in the negotiations. For investors, this war has plunged global energy markets into severe turbulence, and any progress or breakdown in negotiations will have an impact on commodity prices. (Wallstreetcn) Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated on May 22 that it was premature to say a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as significant differences remained between the two sides. According to Iranian media reports on May 22, Baghaei, commenting on the visit of senior Pakistani officials to Tehran, said it indicated that the current situation had entered a "turning point or decisive stage." He mentioned that Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir had visited Tehran and that related communications were still ongoing. When asked whether this meant a change in the negotiation process, Baghaei said it could not be said that a US-Iran agreement was close to being reached, as there were serious and wide-ranging differences between the US and Iran, and "diplomacy is a time-consuming process." Baghaei added that one should not expect to see results within weeks or months through several rounds of back-and-forth consultations. He emphasized that diplomatic negotiations are inherently a long-term process, and both sides are utilizing various opportunities to convey their respective positions. (Xinhua) Baker Hughes data showed that US drilling companies increased the number of oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week. The total US oil rig count for the week ending May 22 was 425, compared to the previous reading of 415. In addition, Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company reported that Q1 oil production fell 12% YoY to 5.6 million mt. (Jin10 Data) According to Bloomberg, affected by the Iran war, the national average gasoline price in the US has surpassed $4.5 per gallon, with California exceeding $6. Despite high prices, consumers have not significantly reduced fuel purchases. For most Americans, driving to work and picking up children are daily necessities. Gasoline spending is nearly impossible to cut, and consumers can only reduce discretionary spending to balance their budgets. Philadelphia resident Avarisse Crawford said she has cut entertainment expenses, replacing steak dinners and bar outings with free park activities. The ongoing Middle East tensions continue to push oil prices higher. The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered global crude oil transportation, and US gasoline inventory has fallen to its lowest level for the same period since 2014. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit a seasonal historic low by the end of August. Facing persistently climbing oil prices, the Trump administration has successively released strategic petroleum reserves, waived the Jones Act, and discussed implementing a federal gasoline tax holiday, but the effects remain unclear. As the Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer travel season, upward demand pressure is expected to further strain already tight inventories. (Wallstreetcn) Recommended Reading: