[SMM Morning Briefing: Wild Swings with Initial Dip Then Rebound, Continuing to Consolidate at Highs amid the Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers.]

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: International Macro Environment Presented a Mixed Bullish-Bearish Landscape, Tin Prices Expected to Continue Moving Sideways at High Levels This Week]

Risk appetite has improved notably in the market recently, and SHFE tin rode the momentum to rally sharply in succession. Futures prices have successfully breached the 400,000 mark, hitting a new high in over two months, with extremely strong performance. What factors are supporting the tin price rally that is in full swing? Can the bullish stance continue? Middle East Tensions Ease, Risk Appetite Recovers Since the sudden escalation of Middle East geopolitical tensions in late February, affected by changes in inflation expectations caused by wild swings in energy prices, global equities and most commodity prices have exhibited a seesaw effect with energy products. Recently, the Middle East situation has been rapidly evolving, market risk appetite has fluctuated accordingly, and SHFE tin futures—whose price movements have always been susceptible to sentiment—have seen significantly amplified fluctuations. During the holiday, the US pushed the so-called operation to clear stranded vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran conflict escalated sharply, the ceasefire agreement was in jeopardy, and market risk appetite weakened at one point. However, after the holiday, positive news from US-Iran negotiations emerged repeatedly. US President Trump posted on social media on the evening of May 5 (Eastern Time), stating that the "Freedom Plan" to "clear" vessel passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be suspended in the short term. On May 6, Trump expressed optimism multiple times about reaching a deal with Iran, saying the US and Iran had "productive" dialogue over the past 24 hours and that a final agreement was "very likely." Additionally, according to multiple White House officials and informed sources, both sides are extremely close to reaching a one-page memorandum of understanding. Based on the current statements from both sides, hopes for ending the conflict are rising, energy prices have pulled back sharply, risk appetite has improved notably, providing fertile ground for tin price gains. Semiconductor Stocks Launch a Bull Feast, Optimism Spills Over It is currently earnings season for publicly listed firms. The latest quarterly results and outlooks from US chip giants have been quite impressive, with Intel, Micron, and others surging collectively, and the US Nasdaq index hitting new highs repeatedly. South Korea's two memory chip giants Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have soared sharply, while A-share listed Cambricon touched a high of 1,966 yuan, reflecting the resonance between booming industry performance and macro tailwinds. Since tin is an indispensable material in chip manufacturing and packaging, against the backdrop of semiconductor stocks rallying collectively and the computing-power metal narrative continuing to unfold, demand expectations for the tin market are highly optimistic. Leading tin stocks surged sharply on the boost, and driven by futures-equity linkage sentiment, capital has flooded in. SHFE tin saw significant increases in open interest over two consecutive days while rising, and futures prices are now just one step away from the previous high. Demand Side Rich in Narratives, Social Inventory Running at Low Levels Returning to tin's own supply-demand fundamentals, structural tightness on the ore side continues to constrain tin ingot output, and policy uncertainties along with supply disruption news from major overseas producing regions frequently impact tin prices. Currently, Myanmar's production resumptions are progressing slower than expected, and with the rainy season approaching, production may remain constrained. Although Indonesia's export quotas have increased somewhat, policy remains unstable, and recently a phased supply gap has emerged due to export license renewal procedures. Customs data showed that tin ore imports exceeded 17,000 mt in each of the first three months of this year, all with significant YoY increases. China's refined tin output is in the ramp-up stage, and institutions will also successively release April production data soon, so supply recovery warrants continued attention. The tin market's demand side has relatively strong support, and under the computing-power metal concept, there are many tradeable themes that frequently provide upward momentum for tin prices. Since AI servers and other high-end chips require 3-5 times more tin solder than ordinary servers, the semiconductor industry's prosperity has become the main driver supporting tin price trends. Currently, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is at a high level of prosperity, having steadily broken through the 10,000-point mark, and global semiconductor sales also grew significantly in Q1, with tin solder demand expected to continue growing. NEV side, although growth has slowed down somewhat, NEV production and sales have rebounded quickly, and their tin consumption demand remains relatively stable. PV side, new PV installations are not expected to grow, but policy floor expectations exist. Meanwhile, traditional production and sales expectations for home appliances, consumer electronics, and other sectors are also relatively weak, and tin chemicals are unlikely to see much additional demand growth. During the traditional peak demand season of March-April, China's tin market performed moderately, with tin ingot social inventory declining to a nearly four-month low, reflecting seasonal destocking. However, with the recent sharp rally in tin prices, spot premiums for tin in China have narrowed significantly, and the sustainability of demand under high prices still warrants attention going forward. Overall, the recent tin price surge was truly a confluence of favorable timing, conditions, and sentiment—support from the macro front, sentiment, and supply-demand fundamentals were all indispensable. Currently, geopolitical tensions have eased, the constraint on risk assets has loosened, the prosperity of global semiconductor-related stocks continues, and optimistic sentiment still easily transmits to SHFE tin futures. The low open interest characteristic of SHFE tin also amplifies futures price fluctuations. However, it is worth noting that the Middle East situation is prone to reversals, and after the semiconductor sector has repeatedly hit new highs, one should also be wary of potential pullback risks—caution is advised before rushing to buy amid continuous price rises. (Webstock Inc.)

JAKARTA, Oct. 6 (Xinhua) -- Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has ordered law enforcement agencies to step up efforts against illegal mining and smuggling, particularly in tin-rich regions, state news agency Antara reported.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Breaks Through 280,000 Mark, Tight Supply-Demand Balance Supports Prices Fluctuating at Highs] On the midday of October 9, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract performed strongly, closing the morning session at 286,470 yuan/mt, with an intraday gain of over 2%. The contract opened today at 280,200 yuan/mt, significantly higher than the previous session's closing price, and once climbed to a high of 286,530 yuan/mt during the session, showing active momentum from bulls. On the external market, although the overnight LME three-month tin contract closed down 0.33% at $36,250/mt, LME tin overall showed a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise during the National Day holiday, with inventory levels remaining at historically relatively low levels, providing support for prices.

[SMM Tin Futures Review: Marginal Improvement in Macro Sentiment and Continued Supply-Side Constraints SHFE Tin Prices Showed a Slight Rebound Overall] On September 11, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract 2510 closed at 271,260 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 1,780 yuan, or 0.66%, from the previous trading day. The intraday trading range was between 270,430 yuan/mt and 272,680 yuan/mt, showing a pattern of fluctuation at highs. Meanwhile, LME tin closed at $34,635/mt, up 1.76%, with a trading volume of 407 lots and a slight decrease in open interest. The slight rebound in tin prices that day was mainly driven by a marginal improvement in macro sentiment and continued supply-side constraints. The US August PPI YoY growth rate unexpectedly slowed to 2.6%, while the core PPI fell 0.1% MoM. This data significantly weakened the US dollar index and strengthened market expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut in September, thereby providing a rebound momentum for US dollar-denominated base metals. However, overall market sentiment remained cautious, as investors closely watched the US CPI data to be released in the evening for clearer policy signals.

SMM's monthly base metal production data is scheduled for release at each month-end, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals from the ground up, helping industry chain professionals and investors see through the illusions of the capital market and grasp the future trends of the nonferrous metal market more clearly.

SMM's monthly production data for base metals is released at the end of each month, aiming to uncover the true fundamentals for industry chain professionals and investors, and providing a clearer grasp of the future direction of the metals market.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Macro Tailwinds Boost Tin Prices, Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Limits Gains] As of the midday session on July 22, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) closed at 266,610 yuan/mt, up 0.39%; LME three-month tin closed at $33,680/mt, up 0.01%. Domestic "anti-rat race" policies intensify: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) plans to promote the elimination of outdated capacity in industries such as non-ferrous metals. Active liquidity has driven a general rise in the non-ferrous metals sector, with tin prices following the sector's sentiment upwards.