[SMM Tin Analysis: Armed Conflicts in Northern Myanmar, Analysis of the Man Maw Tin Mine Situation]

Andrada Mining's subsidiary UTMC expanded its exclusive tin offtake agreement with Thaisarco. Thaisarco will provide a US$3 million (N$48M) unsecured, interest-free advance this week as a prepayment against future sales to fund the Uis mine's capacity expansion. In return, Thaisarco secures exclusive purchasing rights for all Uis tin concentrate, including approved third-party feedstock. Repayment is at UTMC’s discretion, mandated only by control or legislative changes. Voluntary redemption within two years requires 90 days' notice and a 30% fee of US$900,000. After two years, redemption needs 60 days' notice for the principal only. CEO Anthony Viljoen stated the deal reflects a strong partnership, UTMC’s excellent performance, and rising global tin demand.

[SMM Analysis: Raw Material Supply Continues to Decline, Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Slide]: According to processing data from SMM's in-depth market survey, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, have declined to relatively low levels, with a combined operating rate of 47.05%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained unchanged from the previous week. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi dropped significantly, remaining consistently lower than that in Yunnan and declining by approximately 35 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Several smelters began halting production for maintenance this month to alleviate the tight supply of scrap. The rising cost of scrap recycling, coupled with the decline in tin concentrate TCs, has driven up production costs for enterprises, eroding the profits of secondary tin smelting. Meanwhile, considering the stalled production resumptions in the Wa region of Myanmar, combined with the impact of the rainy season on transportation, tin ore imports from the Wa region are expected to continue declining this month. Additionally, due to transportation bans imposed by relevant Thai authorities in southern Myanmar, tin ore supply will be reduced by 500-1,000 mt (metal content). In summary, given the decline in the supply of tin ore and scrap, smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi are likely to maintain low operating levels or continue to experience a downward trend in the coming weeks.

According to Ivanhoe Mines: Robert Friedland, Executive Co-Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN; OTCQX: IVPAF), Weibao Hao, Co-Chairman, and Marna Cloete, President and Chief Executive Officer, announced today the latest operational updates for the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine project, as well as the preliminary findings of the geotechnical investigation following the seismic event at the Kakula mine announced on May 20, 2025. Mining operations in the western section of the Kakula mine were safely and prudently restarted on June 7, 2025, with equipment and mining crews returning underground to resume production. The short-term mining plan for the western section of the Kakula mine has been updated to incorporate the recommendations summarized in the preliminary investigation report. It is expected that mining operations in the far eastern section of the Kakula mine will also resume as soon as possible, with a focus on development work to open up access to new mining areas east of the existing mining zones. The development work in the new mining areas of the far eastern section of the Kakula mine will be carried out in a spatially isolated manner from the pumping work areas and is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2026. On June 2, 2025, the company announced that additional pumping equipment had been installed at the Kakula mine to maintain stable water levels. Since the initial announcement on May 18, 2025, the frequency of seismic events has also decreased. Pumping operations are expected to commence in the eastern section of the Kakula mine in August 2025 and be completed in the fourth quarter. The recommendations made by world-class geotechnical experts based on the preliminary investigation findings have been incorporated into the short-term mining plan for the Kakula mine to ensure the safe restart of mining operations. Meanwhile, the management and technical advisors of Kamoa-Kakula are developing and reviewing the medium- and long-term mining plans for the mine. The Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants continue to operate at approximately 50% of their combined capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles. With the resumption of mining operations in the western section of the Kakula mine, ore supply to the beneficiation plants will increase, and the Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants will gradually ramp up production over the remainder of 2025, with ore supply supplemented by ore mined from the western section of Kakula. Mining activities at the Kamoa underground mine and the adjacent Phase 3 beneficiation plant continue to operate normally without any disruptions. It is expected that the smelter located on the mine site will commence operations in September 2025 and produce its first copper anodes in October, once copper concentrate production and inventory levels meet the required conditions. Robert Friedland, Executive Co-Chairman of Ivanhoe Mines, commented, "We are grateful and deeply appreciate the swift response of the on-site team in stabilizing the groundwater levels at the Kakula mine and resuming mining operations in the western section. Critical dewatering equipment required to ensure the safety of the entire mine was rapidly deployed, while preparations were actively underway to advance as quickly as possible into the Kakula Far East zone to open up new high-grade mining areas." "Although it is still too early to outline detailed plans for 2026 and 2027, the prospects for the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine and the adjacent Western Foreland exploration project remain bright. Kamoa-Kakula is, and will continue to be, a world-class mine, maintaining its leading position among the world's copper producers for decades to come." President and CEO, Mark Cutifani, commented: "We are working tirelessly to safely and methodically restore full operations at the Kakula mine, with safety as our top priority! We would like to express our sincere gratitude to the mining team, engineering team, and our many long-standing contractors for their outstanding contributions in restoring dewatering capacity and restarting mining operations, all without any lost-time incidents." "The resilience and operational strength demonstrated by our team underscore the extraordinary nature of this world-class copper district – and the bright future it will create for generations to come." Note: Existing underground development as of May 2025. The above figure, based on the 2023 Kamoa-Kakula Integrated Development Plan, shows the average grade estimates (calculated using a cut-off grade of total copper >3%) for vertical blocks in different zones, with a minimum thickness of 3 meters. The groundwater level at the Kakula mine has stabilized; underground mining operations have resumed in the western section of the Kakula mine. Following the seismic event, although the inflow of water into the Kakula mine's underground workings gradually increased, it has now stabilized at approximately 4,000 liters per second. Due to the impact of the seismic event on existing underground dewatering facilities, additional underground dewatering capacity totaling approximately 4,400 liters per second has been installed, helping to stabilize the groundwater level. The new pumping stations are connected to the existing central dewatering infrastructure and then discharge water to the surface through four locations near the bottom of the northern and southern twin declines, as shown in Figure 2. With the stabilization of the water level, mining operations have resumed on the western side of the Kakula mine. Mobile equipment and mining crews, which were evacuated from underground on May 18, 2025, have now returned to the underground workings and conducted their first blast on June 7, 2025. The short-term mining plan has been updated to incorporate recommendations from the preliminary geotechnical investigation report. Based on underground conditions, Kamoa-Kakula's mining crews plan to increase mining volumes on the western side of the Kakula mine to approximately 300,000 mt per month (or 3.6 million mt per year on an annualized basis) in H2 2025. In Q3, mining operations will ramp up the mining capacity in the Kakula West Zone to 3.6 million mt/year, with further adjustments to be made based on underground conditions. In H2 2025, the underground mining team will focus on implementing three major projects: ramping up the mining capacity in the Kakula West Zone, constructing a new mining area in the Far East Zone of the Kakula Mine, and ramping up the mining capacity in the Kamoa Mining Area. Additional operational personnel have been deployed to the Kamoa Mine, located approximately 10 kilometers north of the Kakula Mine, to assist the existing mining team in underground excavation works, as well as in the construction of newly designed box-cut and ramp development at the Kansoko Mine. The new ramp will help increase the mining capacity at Kansoko and further supplement the ore supply required by the Phase 1 and Phase 2 beneficiation plants. Construction of the new mining area in the Far East Zone of the Kakula Mine will be concentrated, with development works set to commence soon, spatially separated from the pumping work area. The Far East Zone of the Kakula Mine will adopt a new mining plan, focusing on development works further east of the existing mining area. The new mining area and the existing mining area will be separated by a safety pillar to prevent the rock mechanics instability in the existing mining area from propagating to the new mining area. The mining team is expected to soon commence construction of two new main access tunnels. The two main tunnels will be constructed simultaneously, advancing eastward from the existing underground infrastructure (see Figure 2). The construction of the new mining area will involve the extraction of ore and waste rock, and is expected to be completed by Q2 2026. The new access tunnels will be isolated from the mining faces currently being dewatered, and dewatering operations will also be conducted separately and independently. Upon completion of dewatering in the East Zone of the Kakula Mine, in-situ geotechnical observations will be conducted in the existing mining area, followed by a comprehensive evaluation by geotechnical experts. The evaluation results will determine the future scope of production resumptions in the existing mining area. Underground water inflow is mainly concentrated in the deepest part of the East Zone of the mine (see Figure 2). The Kamoa-Kakula engineering team has developed a phased plan for dewatering the Kakula Mine. Phase 1 : Install temporary pumping facilities underground to maintain the existing water level stable. Phase 1 was completed on June 2, 2025. Phase 2 : Install large-power pumps and a permanent pumping system that can be operated from the surface to conduct comprehensive dewatering operations throughout the Kakula Mine. Kamoa Copper has ordered five large-power pumping units, each with a dewatering capacity of 650 liters per second. The long-term plan also includes the procurement of additional pumping units, which will be deployed in pairs in the existing shafts to the bottom of the Kakula Mine (see Figure 2). Dewatering is expected to commence in August 2025. As water levels gradually decline, the engineering team will begin repairing the underground pumping, ventilation, and other systems, and complete the geotechnical engineering assessment. It is expected that the dewatering work in the eastern section of the Kakula Mine will be completed in Q4. Preliminary findings from the recent geotechnical investigation into the mine seismicity Following the first mine seismic event on May 18, 2025, the company promptly engaged two renowned and independent geotechnical consulting firms, Beck Engineering from Australia and Open House Management Solutions (hereinafter referred to as "Open House") from South Africa, to conduct an investigation at the Kamoa-Kakula Mine. With the support of Ivanhoe Mines, the two consulting firms worked closely with the Kamoa-Kakula engineering team. The preliminary investigation results indicate that the mine seismicity originated from areas in the eastern section of the Kakula Mine with high ore extraction rates. It is currently believed that the secondary stope, originally planned for Step-2 mining, experienced subsidence-induced yielding deformation, leading to stress redistribution and transmission to the pillars in the area. This, in turn, caused the pillars to yield and deform due to excessive bearing stress. Although backfilling of the mined-out areas could not prevent stress redistribution to the regional pillars, it may have mitigated the effects in some cases. Meanwhile, it cannot be ruled out that adverse geological factors within the area exacerbated the yielding deformation of the pillars. Pillars are unmined ore or rock left in place to support the roof of underground voids; mined-out areas refer to spaces underground where mining has been completed. Backfilling is the operation of filling mined-out areas with a mixture of tailings and cement, which, after consolidation, can achieve the target strength. The geotechnical evaluation has not yet been completed and will be further detailed in the eastern section of the Kakula Mine after the dewatering operations are finished. The preliminary investigation results recommend changes to the short-term mining plan to increase the width of the pillars, thereby providing stronger structural support. The results also suggest adjusting the mining sequence to improve stress distribution and overall stability. Additionally, an enhanced rock mechanics monitoring system will be installed throughout the mine. The management of Kamoa-Kakula, along with Beck Engineering, Open House, and other technical consultants, are making revisions to the short-term, medium-term, and long-term mining plans based on the geotechnical investigation findings. Prior to the mine seismicity, the company was in the process of updating the comprehensive mine life-of-mine development plan, which has now been suspended until Ivanhoe Mines' engineering team and its panel of technical experts complete their review and agree to the relevant changes. After the update work resumes, Ivanhoe Mines will provide updates on the progress of the revised comprehensive development plan. The Phase I and II beneficiation plants are operating at reduced capacities, and production ramp-up will be advanced following the resumption of mining operations in the western section of the Kakula Mine; the Phase III beneficiation plant continues to perform exceptionally well. On June 7, 2025, mining operations in the western section of Kakula were safely and prudently resumed. It is planned to increase the underground mining capacity to 3.6 million mt per year in Q3. Combined with ore from surface stockpiles and supplementary ore from the northern Kamoa Mine, this will be sufficient to support over 80% of the combined designed capacity (9.2 million mt per year) of the Phase I and II beneficiation plants. It is expected that in the second half of the year (H2), the copper grade of raw ore in the Kakula West section will range between 3.0% and 4.0%. Since the suspension of underground operations on May 18, 2025, the Phase I and Phase II beneficiation plants have been operating at approximately 50% of their combined capacity, processing ore from surface stockpiles. The Phase III beneficiation plant adjacent to the Kamoa mine (see Figure 3) has maintained excellent operational performance since the beginning of this year. The plant's current average ore processing capacity is equivalent to an annualized capacity of 6 million mt, which is 30% higher than the designed capacity of 5 million mt per year. As of 2025, the average copper grade of ore processed by the Phase III beneficiation plant has been 2.84%. The mining output from the Kamoa and Kansoko mines has increased over the past two months, exceeding an annualized production of 6.8 million mt. The short-term mining plans for the Kamoa and Kansoko mines have been updated to incorporate recommendations from preliminary geotechnical investigations. The long-term mining plans will be reviewed in conjunction with the overall review of the Kakula mine. 2025 Production Guidance Revision The updated 2025 production guidance for Kamoa-Kakula is based on assumptions and estimates as of June 10, 2025, and involves estimates of known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may differ significantly from actual results. The revision of the 2025 production guidance has taken into account the potential impacts of recent seismic events and the resulting disruptions to mining operations at the Kakula mine. Although mining operations have resumed in the Kakula West section, it is currently impossible to accurately predict potential further seismic events, the resulting disruptions, the integrity of underground infrastructure, the ability to ramp up production in underground operations, the ability to complete dewatering work, and the timing of the commissioning of new mining areas in the Far East section. The updated 2025 production guidance is based on the aforementioned factors, and the company's management believes these considerations and assumptions are reasonable given all currently available information. Figure 4 provides detailed information on the revision of the production guidance. All figures are stated on a 100% project equity basis. The reported metal content in concentrate does not account for losses or deductions under smelting agreements. Upon further review, the 2026 copper production target of approximately 600,000 mt has been withdrawn. Ivanhoe Mines will provide further updates on the 2026 production target as more information becomes available. Ivanhoe Mines will provide an update on the 2025 C1 cash cost guidance in its Q2 2025 financial report. The one-step copper smelter at the mine site will commence operations in Q3 Senior management at Kamoa-Kakula has confirmed that the one-step copper smelter at the mine site will begin operations in early September 2025, with the first copper anodes expected to be produced in October. Smelters can operate at a minimum of 50% capacity, which is equivalent to an annualized copper production of approximately 250,000 mt. As of May 31, 2025, there were 33,000 mt of copper in copper concentrates onsite at the mine that had not been sold. It is expected that the first batch of concentrates will be fed into the process approximately four to six weeks after production starts, and it is estimated that there will be a total of approximately 35,000 mt of copper in concentrates in inventory pending sale at that time. In addition, the senior management of Kamoa-Kakula expects that the Inga II hydropower station's Unit 5 turbine (with a designed power of 178 MW) will be commissioned in October 2025, further increasing the hydropower capacity available to the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine through the domestic power grid.

At the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference - 2025 Southeast Asia Tin Industry Conference, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (SMM), supported by the Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs as a government supporter, and co-organized by the Association of Indonesia Nickel Miners (APNI), the Jakarta Futures Exchange, and China Coal Resource, Mamoko Egyul, a smelting expert from the Coordination and Technical Department for Mining Planning (CTCPM) of the DRC Ministry of Mines, delivered a presentation on the current status and development prospects of the African tin ore market, using the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as a case study. He introduced the geographical location and administrative situation of the DRC. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is abbreviated as DRC. Geology and Mineralogy ► Geology He elaborated on the types of tin deposits worldwide: Notable tin deposits in Africa include: Pegmatite-type deposits: Manono (DRC), Bikita (Zimbabwe), and Uis (Namibia); Vein-type deposits: Jos (Nigeria); ► Placer deposits: Maniema Province, North Kivu Province (Bisié), and South Kivu Province (DRC). In placer deposits, cassiterite is concentrated through gravitational forces, often accompanied by tungsten ore (wolframite) and other common heavy minerals (tantalite). ► Mineralogy Tin primarily exists in nature as **cassiterite (SnO₂)**. Other minerals are of lower economic significance, ranked as follows: Cassiterite (SnO₂): 78.7% tin content; Teallite (PbSnS₂): 30%; Stannite (Cu₂FeSnS₄): 27.6%; Cylindrite (Pb₃Sn₄Sb₂S₁₄): 24.8%, etc. Tin Industry and Its By-products Currently known mineral resources: 80 million mt of cassiterite, 30 million mt of tantalum-niobium ore, and 4 million mt of tungsten ore. 2024 Production: 43,000 mt of cassiterite, 2,900 mt of tantalum-niobium ore, and 337 mt of tungsten ore. 2024 DRC Mineral Statistics 2024 Industrial Exports of Tin Ore (mt) He also elaborated on the 2024 artisanal cassiterite exports by province in the DRC, the 2024 artisanal tin concentrate exports by province in the DRC, the total 2024 cassiterite exports, the total 2024 artisanal tantalum-niobium ore exports, the distribution of 2024 artisanal tantalum-niobium ore exports, the 2024 tungsten ore exports, and the 2024 artisanal tungsten ore exports. Changes in Tin Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Changes in Tantalum-Niobium Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Changes in Tungsten Ore Exports from 2020 to 2024 (mt) Legal and Regulatory Framework for the Mining Industry in the DRC The mining industry in the DRC is governed by the Mining Code and the Mining Regulations. This framework is attractive and incentivizing, with the following characteristics in particular: Favorable tax, customs, and foreign exchange regimes; swift, transparent, and objective procedures for granting mining and/or quarrying rights; Consideration of issues related to environmental protection and the well-being of communities surrounding mining projects; Alignment with international standards for transparency and accountability. Development and Prospects of Tin in the DRC Currently, the DRC exports tin in the form of concentrate or intermediate products. This situation is not conducive to maximizing mining revenues and enhancing the added value of marketable mineral products in the country. Therefore, CTCPM (Congo Technical Center for Mineral Research and Planning), the research, design, and planning institution for mining activities in the DRC, proposes the following actions for the future: • Sign a memorandum of cooperation with SMM on matters such as the use of SMM prices; • Promote partnerships between the state-owned company SAKIMA and leading global tin ore mining enterprises; • Conduct capacity-building training for CTCPM officials on the entire process of the tin industry chain. Conclusion Indeed, the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is currently facing an unjust war due to its abundant mineral resources. Currently, discussions are underway on how to help restore stability in the eastern part of the DRC. 》Click to view the special report on the 2025 Indonesia Mining Conference & Critical Metals Conference

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Short-Term Supply Disruptions Persist, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract May Fluctuate Around 260,000-275,000 Yuan/mt] International Developments: - **US Policy Impact**: The trade protectionist policies (e.g., tariff hikes) that the Trump administration may implement could disrupt global supply chains, particularly limiting China's PV exports. However, rising expectations for US interest rate cuts (ADP employment increased by only 37,000 in May) coupled with fiscal stimulus policies may drive economic recovery in H2, boosting demand for industrial metals. - **China's Policy Support**: China's ongoing "trade-in" policies continue to drive consumption of white goods and NEVs. Combined with RRR cuts by the PBOC, which released 1.175 trillion yuan in liquidity, these measures provide underlying support for industrial demand. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region has been postponed until after May, and Indonesia's slow approval of tin export quotas have prolonged short-term supply disruptions. While increased ore output from Africa (e.g., the Mpama South project in the Congo) partially fills the gap, transportation bottlenecks limit actual port arrivals. Potential risks from US-China trade frictions and adjustments to Indonesia's nickel ore export policies may trigger market risk-aversion sentiment. - **Short-Term Constraints**: Domestic smelters' raw material inventories remain low, and tin concentrate prices have risen amid expectations of a ban on mining in Myanmar. - **Medium-Term Growth**: Tin mining projects in Africa (Congo, Rwanda) and South America (Peru) have commenced production, but declining ore grades and rising environmental protection costs have constrained the pace of capacity expansion. - **Fluctuate Upward**: Supported by delayed Indonesian exports, postponed production resumptions in Myanmar, and recovering semiconductor demand, the most-traded SHFE tin contract may fluctuate around 260,000-275,000 yuan/mt. ...

[SMM Analysis: Operating Rates of Smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi Continue to Decline, with Supply from Myanmar Continuing to Shrink]: According to SMM's processing data obtained through in-depth market surveys, as of Friday this week, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at a low level, with a combined operating rate of 53.86%. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan continued to decline compared to the previous week and was nearly 10 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year. The treatment charges (TCs) for tin concentrates with a 40% grade remained at historically low levels, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. Some smelters have halted production for maintenance, while others have begun to implement phased production cuts to address the current shortage of raw material supply. During the same period, the operating rate of smelters in Jiangxi was only 40.19%, consistently lower than that in Yunnan and down by approximately 15 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap supply, with some capacities potentially exiting the market permanently. The reduction in scrap sources and the dual squeeze on costs have led to an increase in scrap recycling costs combined with a decline in tin concentrate TCs, driving up production costs for enterprises and undermining the profitability of refined tin recycling from scrap. According to sources, relevant Thai authorities have decided to suspend the transportation of tin ore from Myanmar to Thailand starting from June 4. SMM understands that approximately 500-1,000 mt (metal content) of tin ore is transported from southern Myanmar to Thailand each month for transit into China. The Thai authorities' ban is expected to affect the transportation of tin ore from southern Myanmar in June.

At the beginning of April, SHFE tin prices fell sharply under pressure due to the escalation of trade conflicts. However, as tariffs were suspended, tin prices rebounded, recovering previous losses and returning to levels before the supply disruptions of tin ore in the DRC. Nevertheless, the market reacted strongly to rumors last week about production resumptions and fee payments in the Wa region, causing tin prices to break through support levels and continue to weaken at the beginning of this week, with the most-traded contract falling below the 250,000 mt threshold. Currently, these market rumors remain unverified. According to SMM, few enterprises are paying fees to obtain mining licenses, with many adopting a wait-and-see attitude, and most major mining traders have not paid management fees. Moreover, the current inspections at the China-Myanmar border are stringent, and the entry procedures for most large-scale equipment and relevant mining personnel are complex. Therefore, the current pace of production resumptions in the Wa region may fall short of market expectations. So, does the current tin price still have the momentum to continue declining? Tight Actual Supply of Tin Ore, with Increasing Expectations for Future Increases In recent years, speculation on SHFE tin has mainly revolved around supply, as tin is a relatively scarce metal with limited content in the Earth's crust and a high degree of supply concentration, primarily distributed in China, Indonesia, Myanmar, Australia, and other regions. After Myanmar suspended tin ore mining on August 1, 2023, global tin resources have been in a relatively tight supply situation. Consequently, the market is highly sensitive to supply-side information, with any slight changes triggering significant market fluctuations. In the early stages of Myanmar's mining ban, China's tin ore imports remained at a relatively high level due to the availability of ore inventory for export. However, as inventory was depleted, China's tin ore imports plummeted from Q2 last year, and the issue of tight domestic tin ore supply has become increasingly prominent. During this period, Chinese enterprises actively sought alternative resources from other countries. However, due to limited global new tin ore discoveries in recent years, the tight resource situation has not been alleviated. Among them, the Bisie mine, owned by Alphamin in the DRC, is the largest mine in Africa and the third largest globally. The mine has two projects: the Mpama North project operates steadily, while the Mpama South project commenced production on May 17 last year, making it the largest among the newly commissioned projects last year. Tin ore from the DRC has also become an important source of tin ore imports for China, currently accounting for about 30%. Production at the Alphamin mine was suspended for over a month in March due to local armed conflicts but gradually resumed in early April. The production interruption at the Alphamin mine, which only recovered about 1,290 mt of tin metal, may result in a supply gap of approximately 2,000-3,000 mt. Currently, Alphamin has revised its tin production guidance for the 2025 fiscal year downward from 20,000 mt to 17,500 mt. Since the beginning of this year, the resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar has gradually been put on the agenda. On February 26, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration issued the document "Procedures for Applying for Mining, Beneficiation Plant, and Prospecting Licenses," which explicitly stipulated the process for applying for licenses in mining areas. On the morning of April 23, 2025, the Wa State Industrial and Mineral Resources Administration held a special symposium on the resumption of production at the Mansang mine. The meeting announced relevant documents and clarified the work procedures. However, after the symposium, the authorities had not yet issued a clear signal for a full resumption of production. On May 27, market news emerged that the first batch of tin ore from Myanmar's Wa State had reportedly obtained export licenses, but the authenticity of the rumors was questionable. Even if production resumption were confirmed, the first batch of tin ore would not enter the market until at least the end of June. Currently, tin ore supply is tight, and domestic tin concentrate treatment charges (TCs) remain at historically low levels. As of May 30, the tin concentrate TC for 40% grade ore in Yunnan was 11,000 yuan/mt, and for 60% grade ore in Jiangxi, Guangxi, and Hunan was also 11,000 yuan/mt, approaching the cost line of smelters and severely squeezing profit margins. The shortage of raw material supply has affected the production of smelters. According to SMM data based on market-adjusted processing figures, in May 2025, China's refined tin production decreased by 2.37% MoM and 11.24% YoY. The continuous tightening of the tin concentrate and scrap tin supply chains has imposed rigid constraints on capacity, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate of domestic smelters. As of May 30, the operating rates of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi, two major tin-producing provinces, remained at low levels, with a combined operating rate of 54.58%. Regionally, in Yunnan, the shortage of raw materials and cost pressures are intertwined. Raw material inventories at Yunnan smelters are generally below 30 days, with some enterprises facing inventory backlogs due to high-priced stockpiling in the early period. However, weak downstream demand has made it difficult to sell goods, resulting in sluggish spot premium transactions. Some smelters in core production areas such as Gejiu have entered seasonal maintenance or production cuts due to raw material shortages and cost pressures. In Jiangxi, since the beginning of the year, the local scrap tin recycling volume has consistently been below 70% of the annual average, mainly due to the US imposing high tariffs on Chinese electronics, leading to a contraction in solder export orders and a reduction in scrap sources. Some enterprises have been forced to implement long-term production cuts due to insufficient scrap, with some capacity potentially exiting the market permanently. In Inner Mongolia, production slightly rebounded in May due to production issues at captive mines, but it has not yet returned to previous levels. Production areas such as Anhui have continued to experience operating rates below expectations due to shortages of scrap and tin concentrates. Based on SMM estimates, refined tin production is expected to decrease by 4.58% MoM in June, with some smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi planning to halt production for maintenance. Overall, tin ore supply in June is unlikely to see significant recovery. However, the period of the tightest global tin supply is about to pass, and the market will enter a verification phase for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the resumption progress of tin ore production in Myanmar. There is a lack of significant incremental demand in the downstream sector. Global semiconductor sales exhibit cyclical changes. The current semiconductor cycle bottomed out in February 2023, with YoY growth in sales turning positive in November 2023. Since then, the growth rate has been climbing, but it gradually slowed down after October 2024. Currently, the absolute amount of global semiconductor sales remains at a high level. Sales began to pull back slightly from December 2024 and saw a slight MoM rebound in March 2025. This global semiconductor cycle is driven by AI computing power construction, primarily in advanced manufacturing processes. Therefore, the core beneficiaries are concentrated overseas, while domestic capacity is mainly in mature manufacturing processes, offering limited impetus. The downstream semiconductor industries in China are more concentrated in areas such as consumer electronics and automotive. From January to April 2025, domestic mobile phone shipments reached 94.708 million units, up 3.5% YoY. Overall, China's policy subsidies have further boosted market consumption, and the Chinese smartphone industry has shown steady growth from January to April 2025. The recent 618 shopping festival has already kicked off and is expected to support stable end-use consumption electronics. However, the market is expected to gradually enter the off-season for demand in July and August. Enterprises may slow down their stockpiling pace, and it is anticipated that downstream demand for raw materials such as tin will also drop back slightly. Whether there will be an outperformance in demand this year remains to be seen, depending on whether AI blockbuster products emerge in the consumer electronics sector. In recent years, the new demand for tin solder has mainly been reflected in PV solder, currently accounting for over 10%. According to data released by the National Energy Administration, the installed power generation capacity for solar energy from January to April 2025 was 990 million kW, up 47.7% YoY. The significant growth in new PV installed capacity is primarily driven by the installation rush driven by policy timelines. In January 2025, the National Energy Administration issued the "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Distributed PV Power Generation," clarifying that April 30, 2025, is the demarcation point for the implementation of new and old policies. Existing projects that completed their filings before this date will still enjoy the original subsidy and grid connection policies, while new projects will fully implement market-based rules thereafter. On February 9, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Deepening the Market-Oriented Reform of New Energy On-Grid Tariffs to Promote High-Quality Development of New Energy." Starting from May 31, 2025, incremental distributed PV projects will fully enter the market. All new projects will, in principle, have their entire electricity output traded in the power market, with electricity prices formed through market bidding, and subsidies will completely exit the historical stage. Meanwhile, a "price settlement mechanism for the sustainable development of new energy," namely, a "refund for excess, supplement for shortfall" differential settlement mechanism, has been established to stabilize revenue expectations. To capitalize on the two major policy periods of "430" and "531," downstream enterprises initiated an installation rush, driving a significant YoY increase in domestic newly installed PV capacity in April. However, projects connected to the grid after May 31, 2025, are required to fully comply with the new regulations. It is expected that the growth rate of PV installation capacity will subsequently slow down, which will also drag down the demand for tin. Meanwhile, market consumption in traditional sectors such as tinplate and PVC heat stabilizers remains stable. Downstream enterprises are highly sensitive to price changes. Recently, with the decline in tin prices, market sentiment for stockpiling has improved, and downstream procurement demand has rebounded. However, finished product inventories in some markets remain at relatively high levels, ultimately limiting the boost to raw material procurement by downstream enterprises driven by growth in end-user market demand. Overall, the increase in tin concentrates in June is expected to be relatively limited, so the supply will remain slightly tight in the short term. However, the supply of raw materials is expected to gradually improve, and the market will subsequently enter a verification period for the improvement of the supply-demand gap. Close attention should be paid to the return of tin ore from Africa and the production resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar. On the demand side, the market is about to enter the off-season, with weak expectations for demand growth, making it difficult to effectively boost tin prices. Therefore, in the short term, under the expectation of increased supply, there may be downward pressure on the central tendency of the market, but constrained by the current situation where the shortage of tin ore has not significantly eased, market trends may fluctuate. However, from a long-term perspective, the AI industry cycle has not yet ended. If there is a surge in demand from AI end-users, it is expected to significantly drive up tin demand. At that time, the growth rate of supply may lag behind the resilience of demand, and the downside room for tin prices in the medium and long term will be limited. Nevertheless, there is still uncertainty in current trade policies, and caution should be exercised against significant disruptions to tin prices caused by macro factors. (Wenhua Comprehensive)

Tin prices have fallen sharply recently. Looking ahead, on the macro front, the US economy is expected to slow down this year, and the US Fed may extend the period of maintaining the current interest rate level. On the supply and demand front, the continuous implementation of trade-in and equipment renewal policies in China is boosting the demand for non-ferrous metals in the manufacturing and consumer sectors. Myanmar's tin ore accounts for approximately 30.38% of China's tin ore imports and 47% of the total domestic tin ore supply. According to customs data, China's tin ore imports in April 2025 were 9,800 mt (equivalent to approximately 4,336 mt (metal content)), up 18.48% MoM and down 4.22% YoY. From January to April, cumulative tin ore imports were 36,700 mt, a significant year-on-year decline of 47.98%. Since Myanmar implemented a ban on tin ore mining in August 2023, China's tin ore imports from Myanmar have remained at a low level due to the uncertainty surrounding the resumption of production. The downward trend in import volumes continued in April 2025, primarily due to unstable import profitability and the impact of the situation in Myanmar's Wa region. The tight supply of tin ore has led to a 40% decline in processing fees. The processing fee for tin concentrates in Yunnan Province dropped from 17,000 yuan/mt from May to July 2024 to 12,000 yuan/mt, which is lower than the 13,550 yuan/mt at the end of March 2023 and close to the cost line of some enterprises, leading to production cuts by some enterprises. Currently, processing fees are hovering near the lowest levels in the past six years. The tight supply of tin ore has been transmitted to the refined tin smelting sector. The shortage of ore sources is directly reflected in production data: in the week ending May 23, the operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 56.44%, down 0.66 percentage points from the previous week, with operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi being 65.48% and 41.02%, respectively. In Yunnan, smelters are under sustained profit pressure due to low tin ore imports from Myanmar and depressed processing fees. In Jiangxi, some enterprises are struggling to resume production due to insufficient recycling volume of scrap tin and declining processing fees. In April 2025, China's refined tin production was 15,200 mt, down 0.5% MoM and 8.1% YoY. It is expected that production will increase by approximately 2% MoM in May. In downstream industries, tin solder demand accounts for 68%, with the semiconductor sector accounting for 80% of total tin solder demand. In April 2025, the overall sample operating rate of domestic tin solder enterprises was 76.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from March but below market expectations. It is expected that the operating rate will remain low in May. Currently, orders from traditional downstream industries have not yet surged, with just-in-time procurement being the main focus, and spot market transactions remain sluggish. However, global semiconductor demand provides long-term support for the tin market. Global semiconductor sales increased by 18.8% YoY in Q1 2025, and the market size is expected to grow by 11% YoY for the full year, potentially boosting global tin demand by 4.4%. Additionally, the operating rate of primary lead production in the three provinces rose slightly by 0.4 percentage points to 67.75% last week. Despite the off-season in the battery market limiting further rebounds in the operating rate, production remained at a high level in recent years. The domestic tin market has entered a destocking cycle, but the rate of destocking has slowed. As of the end of last week, SHFE tin inventory stood at 8,445 mt, a decrease of 28 mt from the previous week; LME tin inventory was 2,665 mt, down 70 mt from the prior week. According to SMM data, the total social inventory of tin ingots in the three regions was 10,333 mt on May 27, an increase of 374 mt from the previous week. The tin market is exhibiting a pattern of "constrained supply and promising demand." Conflicts in the DRC and earthquakes in Myanmar have heightened market concerns about the supply side. Coupled with the delay in the production resumptions in Wa State, refined tin production continued to decline YoY. Despite being in the off-season, the growth in demand from the semiconductor industry provides some support to the tin market. From a cost perspective, current prices are approaching the range of the tariff floor and cost floor. SHFE tin below 258,000 yuan/mt presents an opportunity to establish long positions at lows, with a medium-term target above 290,000 yuan/mt and a long-term target above 330,000 yuan/mt. (Source: Futures Daily)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: The Tin Market is Facing a Dual Game of Macro Pressure and Fundamental Tight Balance] Currently, the tin market is facing a dual game of macro pressure and fundamental tight balance. Internationally, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% QoQ in Q1, with core PCE inflation rising to 3.5%, consumer confidence falling to a historical low, and the manufacturing PMI pulling back to 48.7, intensifying downward economic pressure. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time but emphasized rising risks of inflation and unemployment. The US dollar index's high volatility continued to suppress the valuation of non-ferrous metals. Domestically, refined tin production in May is expected to decline MoM. The operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is only 56.85%, with low TCs squeezing profits and leading to a persistent tight supply. Although the first batch of tin concentrates from the Bisie tin mine in the DRC was shipped on May 9, they will not enter the smelting process until June, making it difficult to alleviate inventory shortages in the short term. The production resumption progress in Myanmar's Wa region is slow, and Indonesia's export recovery has not yet reached significant volumes, so the supply gap in Q2 will persist. The weak demand trend has not improved. High tin ingot prices (SHFE tin spot prices remain at 240,000-265,000 yuan/mt) significantly suppress the restocking willingness of electronics/home appliance companies, and the blocked industry chain transmission further reduces scrap circulation. Structural bright spots are concentrated in the new energy sector—PV welding strips and NEVs...